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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Understanding the Computing and Analysis Needs for Resiliency of Power Systems from Severe Weather Impacts

As the frequency and intensity of severe weather has increased, its effect on the electric grid has manifested in the form of significantly more and larger outages in the United States. This has become especially true for regions that were previously isolated from weather extremes. In this paper, we analyze the weather impacts on the electric power grid across a variety of weather conditions, draw correlations, and provide practical insights into the operational state of these systems. High resolution computational modeling of specific meteorological variables, computational approaches to solving power system models under these conditions, and the types of resiliency needs are highlighted as goal-oriented computing approaches are being built to address grid resiliency needs. An example analysis correlating outages to 1km day-ahead weather from two historical winter storms, calculated on a large cluster using a combination of interpolated and extrapolated inputs from multiple instrumented sites to workflows that produce primary meteorological outputs, is shown as initial proof of concept.

analysis↗

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Macroecological distributions of gene variants highlight the functional organization of soil microbial systems

Abstract The recent application of macroecological tools and concepts has made it possible to identify consistent patterns in the distribution of microbial biodiversity, which greatly improved our understanding of the microbial world at large scales. However, the distribution of microbial functions remains largely uncharted from the macroecological point of view. Here, we used macroecological models to examine how the genes encoding the functional capabilities of microorganisms are distributed within and across soil systems. Models built using functional gene array data from 818 soil microbial communities showed that the occupancy-frequency distributions of genes were bimodal in every studied site, and that their rank-abundance distributions were best described by a lognormal model. In addition, the relationships between gene occupancy and abundance were positive in all sites. This allowed us to identify genes with high abundance and ubiquitous distribution (core) and genes with low abundance and limited spatial distribution (satellites), and to show that they encode different sets of microbial traits. Common genes encode microbial traits related to the main biogeochemical cycles (C, N, P and S) while rare genes encode traits related to adaptation to environmental stresses, such as nutrient limitation, resistance to heavy metals and degradation of xenobiotics. Overall, this study characterized for the first time the distribution of microbial functional genes within soil systems, and highlight the interest of macroecological models for understanding the functional organization of microbial systems across spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hanford Supplemental Low Activity Waste Simulant Evaporation Testing for Removal of Organics

The Hanford site has approximately 56 million gallons of radioactive waste stored in 177 underground storage tanks. The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is being built to treat and immobilize the tank waste. The baseline method for immobilization of Low Activity Waste (LAW) is vitrification, but additional immobilization capacity is likely needed to supplement the initial melters. An alternative cementitious waste form is being investigated for that future supplemental immobilization method. However, one impediment to a cementitious waste form is the presence of Land Disposal Restricted (LDR) organic chemicals in tank waste. Developing a method to remove the organics would eliminate that impediment to permit possible use of a cementitious waste form. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed testing to examine evaporation as a method to remove some prevalent organics from the Supplemental LAW (SLAW) stream. Samples of product streams from the evaporation were analyzed to determine partitioning of the organics. Modeling was also performed to determine if the experimental and modeling results matched. A description of the experimental details, equipment, and results of that testing are included in this report.The work is intended to inform future SLAW flowsheet development activities and gather useful data about the partitioning of constituents through a possible SLAW feed evaporator.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Functional Adaptation of LPS-affected Dentoalveolar Fibrous Joints in Rats

We report the functional interplay between cementum of the root and alveolar bone of the socket is tuned by a uniquely positioned 70–80 µm wide fibrous and lubricious ligament in a dentoalveolar joint (DAJ). In this study, structural and biomechanical properties of the DAJ, periodontal ligament space (PDL-space also known as the joint space), alveolar bone of the socket, and cementum of the tooth root that govern the biomechanics of a lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-affected DAJ were mapped both in space and time. The hemi-maxillae from 20 rats (4 control at 6 weeks of age, 4 control and 4 LPS-affected at 12 weeks of age, 4 control and 4 LPS-affected at 16 weeks of age) were investigated using a hybrid technique; micro-X-ray computed tomography (5 µm resolution) in combination with biomechanical testing in situ. Temporal variations in bone and cementum volume fractions were evaluated. Trends in mineral apposition rates (MAR) in additional six Sprague Dawley rats (3 controls, 3 LPS-affected) were revealed by transforming spatial fluorochrome signals to functional growth rates (linearity factor - RW) of bone, dentin, and cementum using a fast Fourier transform on fluorochrome signals from 100-µm hemi-maxillae sections. An overall change in LPS-affected DAJ biomechanics (a 2.5–4.5X increase in tooth displacement and 2X tooth rotation at 6 weeks, no increase in displacement and a 7X increase in rotation at 12 weeks; 27% increase in bone effective strain at 6 weeks and 11% at 12 weeks relative to control) was associated with structural changes in the coronal regions of the DAJ (15% increase in PDL-space from 0 to 6 weeks but only 5% from 6 to 12 weeks compared to control). A significant increase (p < 0.05) in PDL-space between ligated and age-matched control was observed. The bone fraction of ligated at 12 weeks was significantly lower than its age-matched control, and no significant differences (p > 0.05) between groups were observed at 6 weeks. Cementum in the apical regions grew faster but nonlinearly (11% and 20% increase in cementum fraction (CF) at 6 and 12 weeks) compared to control. Alveolar bone revealed site-specific nonlinear growth with an overall increase in MAR (108.5 µm/week to 126.7 µm/week after LPS treatment) compared to dentin (28.3 µm/week in control vs. 26.1 µm/week in LPS-affected) and cementum (126.5 µm/week in control vs. 119.9 µm/week in LPS-affected). A significant increase in CF (p < 0.05) in ligated specimens was observed at 6 weeks of age. Anatomy-specific responses of cementum and bone to the mechano-chemo stimuli, and their collective temporal contribution to observed changes in PDL-space were perpetuated by altered tooth movement. Data highlight the “resilience” of DAJ function through the predominance of nonlinear growth response of cementum, changes in PDL-space, and bone architecture. Despite the significant differences in bone and cementum architectures, data provided insights into the reactionary effects of cementum as a built-in compensatory mechanism to reestablish functional competence of the DAJ. The spatial shifts in architectures of alveolar bone and cementum, and consequently ligament space, highlight adaptations farther away from the site of insult, which also is another novel insight from this study. These adaptations when correlated within the context of joint function (biomechanics) illustrate that they are indeed necessary to sustain DAJ function albeit being pathological.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Application of Atmospheric Gases and Particulate Matter to the Assessment of Urban Heat Island

Background: Urban heat island (UHI), where built areas are warmer compared to non-urban regions, increases human related diseases and mortality. A key challenge in UHI analysis is the designation of sites as urban or suburban/rural; however, the growing complexity of green spaces in urban areas and the predominance of the transportation sector in nonurban areas creates a dilemma for distinct delineation. Objectives: This study aims to utilize the variability of atmospheric components such as particulate matter (PM), inorganic gases, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as direct tracers of the degree of urbanization for ground-based measurements to fully comprehend UHI in convoluted regions with indistinct delineation of urban and nonurban environments. Methods: Atmospheric gases and aerosols were used as direct tracers of urbanization for UHI analysis. Inorganic gases and particulate matter were monitored in two sites in a southeastern US city with varying degrees of urbanization. VOCs were analyzed using a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Results: The more-urbanized site exhibited warmer night conditions and elevated total oxidant levels, leading to the formation of nanometer-sized particles. Machine learning analysis revealed similar atmospheric pollutant profiles for both sites, suggesting comparable sources and variability. Biogenic VOCs were enhanced at the less-urbanized site; however, levels of anthropogenic aromatic VOCs were comparable for both sites. A comprehensive mass spectra analysis revealed distinct molecular backbones per site that further affirmed the applicability of VOCs as indicators of urbanization. Conclusion: This study concludes that VOCs provide more direct and accurate information than typical inorganic gases and PM parameters for characterizing the degree of urbanization. Further exploration of VOCs can enhance our understanding of UHI dynamics and its interaction with vegetation in urban green spaces.

Air quality sensor↗

OmniXAS: A universal deep-learning framework for materials x-ray absorption spectra

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a powerful characterization technique for probing the local chemical environment of absorbing atoms. However, analyzing XAS data presents significant challenges, often requiring extensive, computationally intensive simulations, as well as significant domain expertise. These limitations hinder the development of fast, robust XAS analysis pipelines that are essential in high-throughput studies and for autonomous experimentation. Here, we address these challenges with OmniXAS, a framework that contains a suite of transfer learning approaches for XAS prediction, each uniquely contributing to improved accuracy and efficiency, as demonstrated on the K-edge spectra database covering eight 3⁢d transition metals (Ti–Cu). The OmniXAS framework is built upon three distinct strategies. First, we use M3GNet [Nat. Comput. Sci. 2, 718 (2022)] to derive latent representations of the local chemical environment of absorption sites as input for XAS prediction, achieving significant improvements over conventional featurization techniques. Second, we employ a hierarchical transfer learning strategy, training a universal multitask model across elements before fine-tuning for element-specific predictions. Models based on this cascaded approach after elementwise fine-tuning outperform element-specific models by up to 69%. Third, we implement cross-fidelity transfer learning, adapting a universal model to predict spectra generated by simulation of a different fidelity with a much higher computational cost. This approach improves prediction accuracy by up to 11% over models trained on the target fidelity alone. Our approach significantly boosts the throughput of XAS modeling by orders of magnitude as compared to first-principles simulations and is extendable to XAS prediction for a broader range of elements. The proposed transfer learning framework is generalizable to enhance deep-learning models that target other properties in materials research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Organic Evaporation and Oxidation Testing in Support of Hanford Sample-and-Send

The Hanford site has approximately 56 million gallons of radioactive mixed waste stored in 177 underground storage tanks. The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is being built to treat and immobilize the tank waste. The baseline method for immobilization of Low Activity Waste (LAW) through the WTP is vitrification, but additional immobilization capacity is needed to supplement the initial LAW melters. An alternative cementitious waste form is being investigated for that future immobilization method to supplement vitrification. However, one impediment to a cementitious waste form is the presence of Land Disposal Restricted (LDR) organic chemicals in tank waste. This work evaluates potential avenues to eliminate that impediment to permit possible use of a cementitious waste form and work towards a decision whether additional LDR organic pretreatment would be required. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed testing using simulants to examine evaporation as a method to remove some prevalent organics from LAW. Spiking the caustic LAW simulant with selected regulated organic chemicals found one that clearly decomposes because of caustic instability. Oxidation testing of other organic chemicals found some LDR organics degrade as desired and others are stable in the presence of peroxide and permanganate. In addition to studies with simulants, a literature review was performed to evaluate radiological stability of LDR organics. Descriptions of the experimental details, equipment, and results are included in this report. Evaporation testing consisted of preparing the LAW simulant, spiking that simulant with organic chemicals, and evaporating the mixture via differential distillation. The apparatus was a laboratory-scale vacuum evaporator operated at 60 ±5 torr absolute (vacuum evaporation) and also at atmospheric pressure. The LAW simulant represented the liquid expected to be retrieved from the Hanford tank farms at approximately 4.0 M [Na + ] total sodium ion concentration. The concentration of the organic chemicals added was significantly higher than typically found in the tank waste samples since the higher levels were necessary to assist in analytical measurement and tracking of the spiked species. Organic chemicals were chosen for the work with a consideration of how their volatility compares with that of methanol. This was done by comparing the ratio of the pure water Henry’s law coefficient (K h ) of methanol to that of the compound in question (hereafter termed the K h ratio), where ratios above unity indicated less volatility than methanol. Methanol was chosen because it is a common regulated chemical with relatively low volatility but which has been removed by evaporation in previous laboratory work. While organic separation results depend on evaporator design, laboratory experiments verified that organic partitioning to the overhead condensate stream by evaporation is a practical process. The work reported here found difficulties in quantitative analysis of the organic chemicals in aqueous samples. Most of the time there was insufficient analysis to close a mass balance for evaporator runs, but qualitative evidence of carryover was obtained. The methods were also able to show whether organic chemicals were susceptible or resistant to solution oxidation in permanganate or hydrogen peroxide tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Interfacial Engineering of Metal Chalcogenides‐based Heterostructures for Advanced Sodium‐Ion Batteries

Sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) have become one of the most promising candidates for large-scale energy storage applications. Metal chalcogenides anode materials based on alloying or conversion reactions are widely studied because of their high theoretical capacities and rich redox reactions. However, their intrinsic limitations such as high voltage hysteresis and large volume expansion hinder their further applications. The construction of heterostructures has become an attractive strategy to alleviate the above issues. Here, the formation of built in electric fields (BIEFs) at the heterointerfaces will accelerate the migration of Na + and electrons. Moreover, heterostructures can also enhance the structural stability, generate more active sites and provide additional capacity. It is worth noting that heterointerfacial properties play a significant role in promoting the overall electrochemical performance of the heterostructures. However, a systematic understanding of their interfacial engineering is currently lacking. This article reviews the research progress of metal chalcogenides-based heterostructure anode materials in the near term. First, the definition, classification and the roles of heterostructures are introduced. Second, the detailed research progress of the metal chalcogenide-based heterostructures anodes in SIBs is discussed. Finally, the future prospects and potential research directions of the heterostructures for batteries are discussed.

anode↗

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

Organic Evaporation, Oxidation, and Hydrolysis Testing in Support of Hanford Sample-and-Send

The Hanford site has approximately 56 million gallons of radioactive mixed waste stored in 156 unretrieved underground storage tanks. The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is being built to treat and immobilize the tank waste. The baseline method for immobilization of Low Activity Waste (LAW) through the WTP is vitrification, but additional immobilization capacity is needed to supplement the initial LAW melters. An alternative cementitious waste form is being investigated for that future immobilization method. However, one impediment to a cementitious waste form is the presence of Land Disposal Restricted (LDR) organic chemicals in tank waste, which are regulated on a concentration-based standard in the final waste form. Hence, if the quantity of organics in LAW is high enough, they must be destroyed or removed to make a waste form compatible with disposal in a mixed low level waste landfill. This work evaluates potential avenues for treatment of LDR organics to eliminate the impediment and permit possible use of a cementitious waste form.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nanosized Organo-Silica Particles with “Built-In” Surface-Initiated Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization Capability as a Platform for Brush Particle Synthesis

A facile synthetic method was developed to prepare sub-5 nm organo-silica (oSiO 2 ) nanoparticles through the self-condensation of ATRP-initiator-containing silica precursors. The obtained oSiO 2 nanoparticles were characterized by a combination of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), dynamic light scattering (DLS) and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS). The accessibility of the surface -Br initiating sites was evaluated by the polymerization of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) ligands from the surface of the oSiO 2 nanoparticles using surface-initiated atom transfer radical polymerization (SI-ATRP). Here, the ultra-small size, tunable composition and ease of surface modification may render these organosilica nanoparticle systems with built-in SI-ATRP capability an interesting alternative to conventional silica nanoparticles for functional material design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using butterfly survey data to model habitat associations in urban developments

Abstract One approach for measuring the potential biodiversity in new urban construction projects is through ecological models that predict how wildlife will respond. For the United Kingdom, such models have only been developed for birds, but to maximise the extent to which models represent overall biodiversity, species from different indicator groups must be considered. Here, we assess this possibility for butterflies by combining citizen science survey data with high‐resolution digital maps. We derive detailed characteristics of urban landscapes around survey sites using previously established methods and quantify their relationship to counts of adults of 18 butterfly species in urban and peri‐urban settings. Higher butterfly counts were found when traversing urban sites with larger areas of semi‐natural grassland, other managed greenspaces and adjacent arable land. Most of the butterfly community were found to have negative relationships with highly built‐up or fragmented landscapes. We found high species‐specificity for different details of urban form, particularly in habitat elements such as gardens, vegetation around railways and grass verges. Policy implications . Improving biodiversity is now part of legislation governing new construction projects from England and Wales. However, predicting quantitative changes from hypothetical land‐use modifications remains challenging. Our models provide the foundation through which butterfly abundance could be integrated into an urban biodiversity assessment tool, providing species‐ and community‐level statistics to non‐specialists from the urban planning and design sector. This would allow them to hone configurations for built surfaces, private gardens, greenspaces and wildlife areas and assess their capacity to provide residents with the intended access to nature.

Cooper, Joseph E. J.↗

Quantitative Ceilometer-Radar Studies of Clouds Field Campaign Report

The Long Island Solar Farm (LISF) is a 32-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant built through a collaboration including BP Solar, the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The LISF, located on the Brookhaven National Laboratory site, began delivering power to the LIPA grid in November 2011, and is currently one of the largest solar photovoltaic power plants in the eastern United States. It is generating enough renewable energy to power approximately 4,500 homes and is helping New York State meet its clean energy and carbon reduction goals. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BN)L has the LISF instrumented and is capturing solar insolation and power data that can be used for research purposes. Additional information on LISF is available here: https://www.bnl.gov/lisf/. A network of nine high-definition (HD cameras) and 32 pyranometers are deployed within the LISF for the purpose of monitoring the location and characteristics of clouds and available global horizontal irradiance at the surface across the region. Information collected by this network every 30 s is currently used in BNL’s solar NowCasting algorithm, which forecasts near-term solar energy availability accounting for the behavior of clouds. The most important parameters for forecasting the near-term solar energy availability are accurate estimations of their horizontal extend, horizontal motion, and cloud base height. Currently, images from nearly located cameras are used to estimate the cloud base height. In order to evaluate the potential of this method for estimating the cloud base height, we decided to deploy a Vaisala ceilometer at the LISF.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗