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DOE OSTI2023

Characterization and response of three TNT equivalent materials in subsurface explosions

Energetic compositions utilized for inducing seismic responses are often referred to in terms of their TNT equivalent, a metric which is often misused because observations of interest are not often understood with respect to explosive characteristics. Here, in this investigation, we characterize three energetic compositions used to elicit seismic responses in a highly instrumented testbed to further our understanding of subsurface TNT equivalence. Three different energetic sources are prepared and studied for their fidelity to thermochemically predicted detonation behavior. We present effects of subsurface detonation on subsurface rock and seismic emission as a function of energetic source material within the testbed. Field experiments were conducted using a single thermochemical yield of 5 kg using diverse sources consisting of nitromethane, ammonal, and PBXN‐5 (an HMX based plastic bonded explosive) mixtures at the Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center in Socorro, New Mexico. Relative performance of energy density‐related detonation parameters, such as detonation velocity and pressure, affect the observed response in the subsurface. Most notable, equal thermochemical yields described in terms of TNT equivalence do not correlate to equal thermochemical effects in the subsurface.

Blue Canyon Dome↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar-terrestrial predictions proceedings. Volume 4: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity

Papers about prediction of ionospheric and radio propagation conditions based primarily on empirical or statistical relations is discussed. Predictions of sporadic E, spread F, and scintillations generally involve statistical or empirical predictions. The correlation between solar-activity and terrestrial seismic activity and the possible relation between solar activity and biological effects is discussed.

Donnelly, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The mechanics of the South Iceland Seismic Zone

The mechanics of the South Iceland Seismic Zone is examined by means of boundary element modeling. The differences between the observed geometry of the major tectonically active features and that of a geometrically orthogonal ridge-transform system (which assumes that the upper part of the earth's crust is an elastic plate containing vertical cuts) are examined. It is suggested that north-south faults can accommodate transform deformation only if the faults are longer or more numerous than those observed so far. This is considered reasonable because earthquake surface rupture lengths are commonly less than the inferred fault length at depth. The South Iceland Seismic Zone is subject to sequences of large earthquake every 45-112 years. In comparing the seismic moment release derived from earthquake magnitudes with that predicted by the models, it is confirmed that the system of north-south faults can act as a transform fault.

Hackman, M. Christine↗

NASA NTRS1990

Present-day kinematics of the Rivera plate and implications for tectonics in southwestern Mexico

A model for the present-day motion of the Rivera plate relative to the North America, Cocos, and Pacific plates is derived using new data from the Pacific-Rivera rise and Rivera transform fault, together with new estimates of Pacific-Rivera motions. The results are combined with the closure-consistent NUVEL-1 global plate motion model of DeMets et al. (1990) to examine present-day deformation in southwestern Mexico. The analysis addresses several questions raised in previous studies of the Rivera plate. Namely, do plate motion data from the northern East Pacific rise require a distinct Rivera plate? Do plate kinematic data require the subduction of the Rivera plate along the seismically quiescent Acapulco trench? If so, what does the predicted subduction rate imply about the earthquake recurrence interval in the Jalisco region of southwestern Mexico?

Demets, Charles↗

NASA NTRS1994

A comparison of eastern North American seismic strain-rates to glacial rebound strain-rates

Glacial rebound strain-rates computed using a simple Laurentide glacial loading model are of the order of 10(exp -9) per year within the region of glaciation and extending several hundred kilometers beyond. The horizontal strain-rates receive approximately equal contributions from horizontal and vertical velocities, a consequence of the spherical geometry adopted for the Earth model. In the eastern United States and southeastern Canada the computed strain-rates are 1-3 orders of magnitude greater than an estimate of the average seismic strain-rate (Anderson, 1986) and approximately 1 order of magnitude greater than predicted erosional strain-rates. The predicted glacial rebound strain-rates are not, in general, oriented in such a way as to augment the observed state of deviatoric stress, possibly explaining why the seismic strain-rates are much smaller than the glacial rebound strain-rates. An exception to this may be seismically active regions in the St. Lawrence valley.

James, Thomas S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗

NASA NTRS2017

In-Flight Guidance, Navigation, and Control Performance Results for the GOES-16 Spacecraft

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R), which launched in November 2016, is the first of the next generation geostationary weather satellites. GOES-R provides 4 times the resolution, 5 times the observation rate, and 3 times the number of spectral bands for Earth observations compared with its predecessor spacecraft. Additionally, Earth relative and Sun-relative pointing and pointing stability requirements are maintained throughout reaction wheel desaturation events and station keeping activities, allowing GOES-R to provide continuous Earth and sun observations. This paper reviews the pointing control, pointing stability, attitude knowledge, and orbit knowledge requirements necessary to realize the ambitious Image Navigation and Registration (INR) objectives of GOES-R. This paper presents a comparison between low-frequency on-orbit pointing results and simulation predictions for both the Earth Pointed Platform (EPP) and Sun Pointed Platform (SPP). Results indicate excellent agreement between simulation predictions and observed on-orbit performance, and compliance with pointing performance requirements. The EPP instrument suite includes 6 seismic accelerometers sampled at 2 KHz, allowing in-flight verification of jitter responses and comparison back to simulation predictions. This paper presents flight results of acceleration, shock response spectrum (SRS), and instrument line of sight responses for various operational scenarios and instrument observation modes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the dual-isolation approach employed on GOES-R. The spacecraft provides attitude and rate data to the primary Earth-observing instrument at 100 Hz, which are used to adjust instrument scanning. The data must meet accuracy and latency numbers defined by the Integrated Rate Error (IRE) requirements. This paper discusses the on-orbit IRE results, showing compliance to these requirements with margin. During the spacecraft checkout period, IRE disturbances were observed and subsequently attributed to thermal control of the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) mounting interface. Adjustments of IMU thermal control and the resulting improvements in IRE are presented. Orbit knowledge represents the final element of INR performance. Extremely accurate orbital position is achieved by GPS navigation at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). On-orbit performance results are shown demonstrating compliance with the stringent orbit position accuracy requirements of GOES-R, including during station keeping activities and momentum desaturation events. As we show in this paper, the on-orbit performance of the GNC design provides the necessary capabilities to achieve GOES-R mission objectives.

Chapel, Jim↗

DOE OSTI2021

SPiRaL: a multiresolution global tomography model of seismic wave speeds and radial anisotropy variations in the crust and mantle

SUMMARY SPiRaL is a joint global-scale model of wave speeds (P and S) and anisotropy (vertical transverse isotropy, VTI) variations in the crust and mantle. The model is comprised of >2.1 million nodes with five parameters at each node that capture velocity variations for P- and S-waves travelling at arbitrary directions in transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis (VTI). The crust (including ice, water, sediments and crystalline layers) is directly incorporated into the model. The default node spacing is approximately 2° in the lower mantle and 1° in the crust and upper mantle. The grid is refined with ∼0.25° minimum node spacing in highly sampled regions of the crust and upper mantle throughout North America and Eurasia. The data considered in the construction of SPiRaL includes millions of body wave traveltimes (crustal, regional and teleseismic phases with multiples) and surface wave (Rayleigh and Love) dispersion. A multiresolution inversion approach is employed to capture long-wavelength heterogeneities commonly depicted in global-scale tomography images as well as more localized details that are typically resolved in more focused regional-scale studies. Our previous work has demonstrated that such global-scale models with regional-scale detail can accurately predict both teleseismic and regional body wave traveltimes, which is necessary for more accurate location of small seismic events that may have limited signal at teleseismic distances. SPiRaL was constructed to predict traveltimes for event location and long-period waveform dispersion for seismic source inversion applications in regions without sufficiently tuned models. SPiRaL may also serve as a starting model for full-waveform inversion (FWI) with the goal of fitting waves with periods 10–50 s over multiple broad regions (thousands of kilometres) and potentially the globe. To gain insight to this possibility, we simulated waveforms for a small set of events using SPiRaL and independent waveform-based models for comparison. For the events tested, the performance of the traveltime-based SPiRaL model is shown to be generally on par with regional 3-D waveform-based models in three regions (western United States, Middle East, Korean Peninsula) suggesting SPiRaL may serve as a starting model for FWI over broad regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo simulations of the diurnal variation in seismic detection rate of sporadic meteoroid impacts on the moon

The rate of detection of meteoroid impacts on the moon by the lunar seismic network shows a characteristic diurnal variation. Assuming that these meteoroids have a flux and a preimpact orbital distribution similar to that of fireballs observed by terrestrial camera networks, one can compute the expected diurnal variation for a given set of parameters that describe the seismic wave generation and transmission on the moon. An iterative process to match the theoretical variation with the observed one has led us to the following results: (1) the majority of the detected impact events occur within a closer range of the network than was believed earlier. This results in higher meteoroid flux estimates from lunar seismic data that agree with the terrestrially measured flux. (2) For meteoroid masses smaller than 1000 g, seismic amplitude is approximately proportional to the one-fifth power of the impact speed; for larger masses it is approximately proportional to the eight-fifth power, provided that the terrestrial meteor data used for analysis are not biased. (3) Seismic efficiency of meteoroids smaller than 1000 g is significantly less than that of large meteoroids. (4) Using orbits of fireballs that represent meteorites, we predict that the share of meteorites among the detected impacts is approximately 15 percent assuming that seismic efficiency of the high-density meteorites is the same as that of average meteoroids. A greatly increased seismic efficiency for these high-density objects is not likely.

Oberst, J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Estimating the Libration of Mercury by Remote Sensing of Gravity and Altimetry

One of the most intriguing scientific questions about Mercury is whether the planet possesses a liquid core. One way that this can be ascertained is through the measurement of the longitudinal libration of Mercury about its rotation axis. The MESSENGER (Mercury Surface, Space, Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging) mission to Mercury will attempt this measurement by deriving the rotation of the planet from remotely sensed observations of the Mercury gravity field and the planet's shape. For a fully fluid core the libration is expected to be an approximately 350-m-amplitude oscillation (at the equator) about the mean rotation of the planet. Thus, the shape of the planet undergoes a librational oscillation in the same way that features on the surface participate in the motion. In this sense altimetric topography can be considered analogous to imaging, with the important exception that for altimetry, the long wavelengths corresponding to low degrees and orders in a spherical harmonic expansion, can be precisely determined from orbital measurements. The rotation of the planet thus introduces a time dependence of the topographic image in an inertial (i.e. fixed) reference frame and the libration is a variation in the planetary rotation rate, manifest as an oscillation of the topographic image. Similarly, gravity measures the distribution of mass within a planet and as such can be viewed as providing a vertically integrated 'image' of the internal density structure. For a librating planet the gravitational field will also reveal a variation in the rotation rate, manifest as an oscillation of the field with respect to an inertial reference frame. While the long-wavelength gravity field contains contributions from the radial distribution of mass with depth, the long wavelength terms are most sensitive to the mass distribution of the deep interior. Thus, both the topography and the gravity independently can be used to determine the (irregular) rotation of a planet, although the topographical method measures the rotation of the crust while the gravity measures the rotation of the distributed mass, and these are not necessarily identical. For example, for a planet that contains a fluid outer core that is effectively decoupled from the mantle the gravity field will not librate in the manner of a solid body. The libration obtained from the variable rotation of the gravity field will represent a combination of contributions due to a librating mantle and a differentially rotating fluid core. Differential rotation of the Earth's inner core had been theoretically predicted from three dimensional geodynamical models and subsequently reported from seismic observations. A difference between the libration of the lithosphere as determined from altimetry and the deep interior as determined from gravity, if it could be detected, might provide further insight into the nature of core-mantle coupling. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Smith, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emulation of seismic-phase traveltimes with machine learning

SUMMARY We present a machine learning (ML) method for emulating seismic-phase traveltimes that are computed using a global-scale 3-D earth model and physics-based ray tracing. Accurate traveltime predictions based on 3-D earth models are known to reduce the bias of event location estimates, increase our ability to assign phase labels to seismic detections and associate detections to events. However, practical use of 3-D models is challenged by slow computational speed and the unwieldiness of pre-computed lookup tables that are often large and have prescribed computational grids. In this work, we train a ML emulator using pre-computed traveltimes, resulting in a compact and computationally fast way to approximate traveltimes that are based on a 3-D earth model. Our model is trained using approximately 850 million P-wave traveltimes that are based on the global LLNL-G3D-JPS model, which was developed for more accurate event location. The training-set consists of traveltimes between 10 393 global seismic stations and randomly sampled event locations that provide a prescribed, distance-dependent geographic sample density for each station. Prediction accuracy is dependent on event-station distance and whether the station was included in the training set. For stations included in the training set the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the difference between traveltimes computed using ray tracing through the 3-D model and the ML emulator for local, regional, and teleseismic distances are 0.090, 0.125 and 0.121 s, respectively. For tested station locations not included in the training set, MAD values for the three distance ranges increase to 0.173, 0.219 and 0.210 s, respectively. Empirical traveltime residuals for a global reference data are indistinguishable when ML emulation or the 3-D model is used to compute traveltimes. This result holds regardless of whether the recording station is used in ML training or not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pressure-stabilized divalent ozonide CaO 3 and its impact on Earth's oxygen cycles

High pressure can drastically alter chemical bonding and produce exotic compounds that defy conventional wisdom. Especially significant are compounds pertaining to oxygen cycles inside Earth, which hold key to understanding major geological events that impact the environment essential to life on Earth. Here we report the discovery of pressure-stabilized divalent ozonide CaO3 crystal that exhibits intriguing bonding and oxidation states with profound geological implications. Our computational study identifies a crystalline phase of CaO 3 by reaction of CaO and O 2 at high pressure and high temperature conditions; ensuing experiments synthesize this rare compound under compression in a diamond anvil cell with laser heating. High-pressure x-ray diffraction data show that CaO 3 crystal forms at 35 GPa and persists down to 20 GPa on decompression. Analysis of charge states reveals a formal oxidation state of -2 for ozone anions in CaO 3 . These findings unravel the ozonide chemistry at high pressure and offer insights for elucidating prominent seismic anomalies and oxygen cycles in Earth’s interior. We further predict multiple reactions producing CaO 3 by geologically abundant mineral precursors at various depths in Earth’s mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Topography and tectonics of mid-oceanic ridge axes

Numerical fluid dynamic models of mid-oceanic ridge axes were constructed using distributions of material properties constrained by seismic studies and thermal calculations. The calculations indicate that spreading is passive except for forces caused by density differences due to thermal expansion and partial melt. Except for geometric differences due to temperature distribution, one set of mechanical properties can adequately explain central rifts of slow ridges and central peaks of fast ridges. Viscous head loss in the upwelling material dominates at low spreading rates where material ascends through a narrow conduit. Thermal expansion and partial melting dominate at high spreading rates where a wide low viscosity crustal magma chamber is present. The preferred rheology is 10 to the 20th poise for the upwelling lithosphere; less than 5 x 10 to the 17th for the crustal magma chamber and axial intrusion zone at fast ridges, and a yield stress of 200 bars for the lithosphere. The calculation correctly predicts the existence of central peaks at 'hot-spot' ridges, where seismic evidence indicates a large magma chamber.

Sleep, N. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification of Faults Susceptible to Induced Seismicity Final Report

The primary objective of this project (referred to as the State of Stress project or SoS project) was to predict the presence of faults susceptible to movement in the presence of fluid injection as a consequence of vertical pressure migration from the storage unit to the crystalline basement. These faults included those difficult to resolve with traditional interpretations of surface seismic: faults with no or minimal offset, faults in the crystalline basement where no seismic reflectors are present, subseismic faults (due to size), and faults undetected (e.g., due to unfavorable orientation with surface seismic survey).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The influence of environmental microseismicity on detection and interpretation of small-magnitude events in a polar glacier setting

Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗