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DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2014

Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System

Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.

Decline↗

NASA NTRS1990

Spatial cross-correlation of Antarctic Sea ice and seabed topography

A time series of derived sea ice concentrations as observed about Antarctica by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite in 1983 is considered. The degree of spatial cross correlation between these data and seabed topography is quantified. The approach is to implement a statistical image processing filter designed to extract local patterns of spatial cross correlation over the entire sea ice field as it undergoes daily changes. Throughout the sea ice, it was found that large scale variations in sea ice concentration correlate systematically with variations in the topography of the seabed. Generally speaking, high concentrations of sea ice occur over deep ocean, whereas areas of encavement, early dissipation and polynya formation develop over topographic features of high elevation. The latter was studied in detail with respect to the features Maud Rise, Astrid Ridge and the continental shelf in the Cosmonaut and Ross Seas. In each case, it is shown that an encavement in sea ice, a polynya, or both develops in the vicinity of the feature in question. As these results are quantified in terms of spatial cross correlation, a potential role is inferred for seabed topography in such fluctuations in the sea ice about Antarctica.

Deveaux, Richard D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Polarimetric Signatures of Sea Ice: Theoretical Model - Part 1

Physical, structural, and electromagnetic properties and interrelating processes in sea ice are used to develop a composite model for polarimetric backscattering signatures of sea ice. Physical properties of sea ice constituents such as ice, brine, air, and salt are presented in terms of their effects on electromagnetic wave interactions. Sea ice structure and geometry of scatterers are related to wave propagation, attenuation, and scattering. Temperature and salinity, which are determining factors for the thermodynamic phase distribution in sea ice, are consistently used to derive both effective permittivities and polarimetric scattering coefficients. Polarimetric signatures of sea ice depend on crystal sizes and brine volumes, which are affected by ice growth rates. Desalination by brine expulsion, drainage, or other mechanisms modifies wave penetration and scattering. Sea ice signatures are further complicated by surface conditions such as rough interfaces, hummocks, snow cover, brine skim, or slush layer. Based on the same set of geophysical parameters characterizing sea ice, a composite model is developed to calculate effective permittivities and backscattering covariance matrices at microwave frequencies for interpretation of sea ice polarimetric signatures.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Microwave Technique for Mapping Ice Temperature in the Arctic Seasonal Sea Ice Zone

A technique for deriving ice temperature in the Arctic seasonal sea ice zone from passive microwave radiances has been developed. The algorithm operates on brightness temperatures derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and uses ice concentration and type from a previously developed thin ice algorithm to estimate the surface emissivity. Comparisons of the microwave derived temperatures with estimates derived from infrared imagery of the Bering Strait yield a correlation coefficient of 0.93 and an RMS difference of 2.1 K when coastal and cloud contaminated pixels are removed. SSM/I temperatures were also compared with a time series of air temperature observations from Gambell on St. Lawrence Island and from Point Barrow, AK weather stations. These comparisons indicate that the relationship between the air temperature and the ice temperature depends on ice type.

St.Germain, Karen M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Arctic Ocean Primary Productivity: The Response of Marine Algae to Climate Warming and Sea Ice Decline

Autotrophic single-celled algae living in sea ice (ice algae) and water column (phytoplankton) are the main primary producers in the Arctic Ocean. Through photosynthesis, they transform dissolved inorganic carbon into organic material. Consequently, primary production provides a key ecosystem service by providing energy to the entire food web in the oceans. Primary productivity is strongly dependent upon light availability and the presence of nutrients, and thus is highly seasonal in the Arctic. The melting and retreat of sea ice during spring are strong drivers of primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, owing to enhanced light availability and stratification (Barber et al. 2015; Leu et al. 2015; Ardyna et al. 2017). Recent studies have emphasized that primary production occurs under lower light conditions and earlier in the seasonal cycle than previously recognized (Randelhoff et al. 2020). Other studies suggest that increased nutrient supply have also influenced overall production (Henley et al. 2020; Lewis et al. 2020). Furthermore, while declines in Arctic sea ice extent over the past several decades (see essay Sea Ice) have contributed substantially to shifts in primary productivity throughout the Arctic Ocean, the response of primary production to sea ice loss has been both seasonally and spatially variable (e.g., Tremblay et al. 2015; Hill et al. 2018). Here we present satellite-based estimates of algal chlorophyll-a (occurring in all species of phytoplankton), based on ocean color, and subsequently provide calculated primary production estimates. These results are shown for ocean areas with less than 10% sea ice concentration and, therefore, do not include production by sea ice algae or under-ice phytoplankton blooms, which can be significant (e.g., Lalande et al. 2019).

K. E. Frey↗

NASA NTRS1983

Nimbus 7 SMMR observations of the Bering Sea ice cover during March 1979

Sea ice concentration contour maps derived from the 0.81 cm wavelength channels on the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) are compared with surface and aircraft data and with sea ice charts derived from the TIROS-N satellite imagery. The regional ice and weather data and the derivation of the TIROS ice charts are discussed, and the Nimbus 7 SMMR data and the physical basis of the algorithm used to retrieve ice concentrations are described. A detailed comparison of the SMMR imagery with all available surface, satellite, and meteorological data for two days in March, 1979 is made. The results show that the ice concentration maps derived from the 0.81 cm wavelength SMMR radiances provide accurate information on both the ice edge position and the location of low and high ice concentration regions within the Bering Sea pack ice.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Kurtz, N. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of MODIS, AMSR-E and SSM/I data reveal that the sea ice production rate at the coastal polynyas along the Ross Ice Shelf has been increasing since 1992. This also means that the salinization rate and the formation of bottom water in the region are going up as well. Simulation studies indicate that the stronger production rate is likely associated with the ozone hole that has caused a deepening of the lows in the West Antarctic region and therefore stronger winds off the Ross Ice Shelf. Stronger winds causes larger coastal polynyas near the shelf and hence an enhanced ice production in the region during the autumn and winter period. Results of analysis of temperature data from MODIS and AMSR-E shows that the area and concentration of the sea ice cover are highly correlated with surface temperature for both the Arctic and Antarctic, especially in the seasonal regions where the correlation coefficients are about 0.9. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface ice temperatures (SITs) were also observed in 2007 and 2011when drastic reductions in the summer ice cover occurred, This phenomenon is consistent with the expected warming of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean on account of ice-albedo feedback. Changes in atmospheric circulation are also expected to have a strong influence on the sea ice cover but the results of direct correlation analyses of the sea ice cover with the Northern and the Southern Annular Mode indices show relatively weak correlations, This might be due in part to the complexity of the dynamics of the system that can be further altered by some phenomena like the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and extra polar processes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD),

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Atmospheric Form Drag Coefficients Over Arctic Sea Ice Using Remotely Sensed Ice Topography Data, Spring 2009-2015

Sea ice topography significantly impacts turbulent energy/momentum exchange, e.g., atmospheric (wind) drag, over Arctic sea ice. Unfortunately, observational estimates of this contribution to atmospheric drag variability are spatially and temporally limited. Here we present new estimates of the neutral atmospheric form drag coefficient over Arctic sea ice in early spring, using high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. We utilize a new three-dimensional ice topography data set and combine this with an existing parameterization scheme linking surface feature height and spacing to form drag. To be consistent with previous studies investigating form drag, we compare these results with those produced using a new linear profiling topography data set. The form drag coefficient from surface feature variability shows lower values [less than 0.5-1 × 10(exp. −3)] in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, compared with higher values [greater than 0.5-1 ×10(exp. −3)] in the more deformed ice regimes of the Central Arctic (north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), which increase with coastline proximity. The results show moderate interannual variability, including a strong increase in the form drag coefficient from 2013 to 2014/2015 north of the Canadian Archipelago. The form drag coefficient estimates are extrapolated across the Arctic with Advanced Scatterometer satellite radar backscatter data, further highlighting the regional/interannual drag coefficient variability. Finally, we combine the results with existing parameterizations of form drag from floe edges (a function of ice concentration) and skin drag to produce, to our knowledge, the first pan-Arctic estimates of the total neutral atmospheric drag coefficient (in early spring) from 2009 to 2015.

sea ice↗

NASA NTRS1993

Observational and modeling studies of the influence of sea ice anomalies on atmospheric circulation

The effects of sea ice on short-term climate variability are studied by comparing the speculated and model-derived climatic roles of sea ice with the observational evidence. It is concluded that sea ice variations have large local impacts on the lower atmosphere which can be useful in local forecasting at the 30-90 day range. Observational studies are found to be severely constrained by the fact that atmospheric forcing plays a major role in the development of sea ice anomalies. Global climate models exhibit significant sensitivities to large changes of sea ice coverage. While the responses of different models are similar in many respects, there are inconsistencies among the models in the changes of some fundamental variables.

Walsh, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radar altimetry over sea ice

To study the sea-ice interactive region in the Bering and Greenland Seas a series of experimental compaigns, the Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX) has been planned. A major objective of MIZEX is the development of a capability to relate the morphology and distribution of the sea ice to atmospheric and oceanographic parameters in an overall model. During the first part of the MIZEX, a 13.7 GHz microwave radar altimeter/scatterometer having a pulse length of 16 nanoseconds was flown over the Bering Sea Marginal ice zone. On the same aircraft were the NASA GSFC 19 GHz Electronically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR), scanning radiometers and an infrared, nadir pointing, temperature sounder. The altimeter/scatterometer was operated in nadir pointing and conically scanning modes to collect measurements of reflectivity and pulse shapes. These will be related to sea-ice classifications, ocean wave spectra and coincident microwave and infrared radiometric measurements and laser profilometer surface roughness estimates.

Powell, J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sea ice ridging in the eastern Weddell Sea

Measurements of sea ice ridge heights and spatial frequency in the eastern Weddell Sea using a shift-based acoustical sounder are reported. A total of 933 ridges were measured along a track length of 415 km using a minimum ridge sail height of 0.75 m. The ridge frequency varied from 0.4 to 10.5 ridges per km. The mean height of the ridges was found to be about 1.1 m regardless of the ridge frequency. These results are compared to other ridging statistics from the Ross Sea and found to be similar. Comparison with Arctic data indicates that the height and frequency of the ridges are considerably less in the Weddell Sea than in the Arctic. Whereas in the Arctic, the mean ridge height tends to increase with the ridge frequency, this was not found to be the case in the Weddell Sea, where the mean ridge height remained constant irrespective of the ridge frequency. Estimates of the contribution of deformed ice to the total ice thickness are generally low except for a single 53-km section where the ridge frequency increased by an order of magnitude.

Lytle, V. I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS1978

Time-dependence of sea-ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction in the Arctic Basin

Microwave images of sea ice obtained by Nimbus-5 and the NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory are used to determine the time variation of the sea-ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction within the pack ice in the Arctic Basin. The images, constructed from data acquired from the electrically scanned microwave radiometer, are analyzed for four seasons during 1973-1975. Observations indicate significant variations in the sea-ice concentration in the spring, late fall, and early winter. Sea-ice concentrations as low as 50% were detected in large areas in the interior of the Arctic polar sea-ice pack. The applicability of passive-microwave remote sensing for monitoring the time dependence of sea-ice concentration is considered.

Gloersen, P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Enhanced Sea Ice Concentration and Ice Temperature Algorithms for AMSR

Accurate quantification of sea ice concentration and ice temperature from satellite passive microwave data is important because they provide the only long term, spatially detailed and consistent data set needed to study the climatology of the polar regions. Sea ice concentration data are used to derive large-scale daily ice extents that are utilized in trend analysis of the global sea ice cover. They are also used to quantify the amount of open water and thin ice in polynya and divergence regions which together with ice temperatures are in turn needed to estimate vertical heat and salinity fluxes in these regions. Sea ice concentrations have been derived from the NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms while a separate technique for deriving ice temperature has been reported. An integrated technique that will utilizes most of the channels of AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer) has been developed. The technique uses data from the 6 GHz and 37 GHz channels at vertical polarization obtain an initial estimate of sea ice concentration and ice temperature. The derived ice temperature is then utilized to estimate the emissivities for the corresponding observations at all the other channels. A procedure for calculating the ice concentration similar to the Bootstrap technique is then used but with variables being emissivities instead of brightness temperatures to minimizes errors associated with spatial changes in ice temperatures within the ice pack. Comparative studies of ice concentration results with those from other algorithms, including the original Bootstrap algorithm and those from high resolution satellite visible and infrared data will be presented. Also, results from a simulation study that demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in correcting for spatial variations in ice temperatures will be shown. The ice temperature results are likewise compared with satellite infrared and buoy data with the latter adjusted to account for the effects of the snow cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗