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Science and Technology Review (May 2021)

Lawrence Livermore has been on the forefront of cancer research for over 60 years. Early interest in cancer statistics stemmed from the nature of work, particularly how radiation affects humans. The Department of Energy funded research to investigate the effects of radiation on workers with long term exposure. This research quickly morphed into a wider breadth of cancer research topics, including the use of advanced computational models to investigate mutations in genes. Livermore is regarded as a leader in cancer research, from the Human Genome Center to its participation in the National Cancer Institute’s “Moonshot” project. The highly interdisciplinary Laboratory unites research in one more example: bringing together cancer biology, 3D printing, high-performance computing, big data, and materials science to address this pressing medical challenge.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2021 Annual Report: Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

In fiscal year 2021 (FY2021), the COVID-19 pandemic continued to have an impact on activities within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Travel was limited, which affected field activities and forced the continuation of virtual meetings. However, the ability to travel expanded significantly through the year, bringing some return to normalcy, and throughout the year, there was a great deal of activity dedicated to advancing the facility. Because of COVID, ARM twice delayed the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) in the Houston, Texas, area. Originally planned to launch in the spring, TRACER started October 1, 2021, one month after the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign began near Crested Butte, Colorado. ARM teams worked onsite and remotely to make sure both campaigns could launch on this new schedule that was set early in the year. Data from SAIL and TRACER will be critical to improving earth system models, each contributing to different sets of issues. SAIL measurements will provide insights into how precipitation forms and water travels through the Upper Colorado River Basin. TRACER scientists want to know whether tiny atmospheric particles can influence the severity of thunderstorms. In October 2020, the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition ended after 13 months. MOSAiC data from ARM and other organizations are already helping scientists better understand how ice, atmosphere, and ocean systems are connected in the central Arctic. This report discusses some early investigations from MOSAiC, along with other ARM campaigns and activities generating prolific research. In this report, you will also learn how research activities moved forward during the pandemic at ARM’s fixed-location atmospheric observatories. There were important science applications from measurements across the facility. ARM spent a significant amount of FY2021 looking back—and ahead. In November 2020, ARM had its Triennial Review. This review is held every three years to evaluate ARM’s effectiveness in science, operations, and management. Overall, the reviewers had positive feedback regarding the breadth and impact of science activities using ARM data and the way ARM strives to meet changing user needs. The reviewers also provided some recommendations for strengthening ARM going forward. Incorporating feedback from the review, we finalized an updated Decadal Vision document that will help guide ARM priorities in the coming years. This report describes the four themes driving ARM’s Decadal Vision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Section 3 Reporting: Preserve America

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is a multidisciplinary laboratory with seven Nobel Prize-winning discoveries, 37 R&D 100 Awards, and countless advances in science and technology. For over 75 years, the Laboratory has played a leading role in the Department of Energy (DOE) Science and Technology mission and continues to contribute to the DOE’s missions in energy resources, environmental quality, and national security. The Laboratory is operated and managed by Brookhaven Science Associates (BSA), which was founded by the Research Foundation for the State University of New York on behalf of Stony Brook University, and Battelle, a non-profit applied science and technology organization. BNL is committed to longstanding partnerships with researchers, academic institutions, industry, students, teachers, and the surrounding community. BNL is located near the center of Suffolk County on Long Island, New York within Brookhaven Township, about 60 miles east of New York City. Most of BNL’s principal facilities are located near the center of the 5,265-acre (8.23 square mile) site (Figure 1). The developed area encompasses approximately 1,820 acres, consisting of: ▪ 500 acres originally developed by the Army (as part of WW II Camp Upton) and still used for offices and other operational buildings. ▪ 200 acres occupied by large, specialized research facilities. ▪ 520 acres occupied by outlying facilities, such as the Sewage Treatment Plant, research agricultural fields, housing facilities, and fire breaks. ▪ 400 acres of roads, parking lots, and connecting areas. ▪ 200 acres developed for the Long Island Solar Farm. The balance of the site, approximately 3,400 acres, is largely wooded and represents a native pine barrens ecosystem. In November 2000, DOE set aside 530 acres of undeveloped land at BNL as the Upton Ecological and Research Reserve. The Upton Reserve preserves this portion of the pine barrens ecosystem and provides an area for ecological research and education activities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive management of large-scale ecosystem restoration: increasing certainty of habitat outcomes in the Columbia River Estuary, U.S.A.

Ecological restoration programs in dynamic coastal environments can benefit from adaptive management, including an iterative process for identifying and addressing critical uncertainties. We highlight key developments under the three pillars that have increased the rate of restoration by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) over 20 years: science, coordination, and management. We show how such programs can be institutionalized to ensure that estuary ecosystems are better understood, conserved, and restored. The principal conservation effort under CEERP is to reconnect historical floodplain wetlands to the mainstem. The program also supports other restoration actions that demonstrate a high potential to benefit ecosystem function and endangered salmon populations, however, there is greater uncertainty regarding these less-utilized techniques. Through adaptive management, we address both technical uncertainty regarding benefits to the environmental resource and programmatic uncertainty pertaining to decision-making. Here, we examine three periods of CEERP growth to establish how complementary research and restoration actions have improved program outcomes over time. We highlight the tools and processes that were developed and integrated into the program to refine program strategy, improve project design, and maximize ecological benefits. CEERP supported 77 restoration projects and reconnected over 7,000 acres of floodplain habitat to the lower Columbia River between 2004 and 2021. Building on these successes, we outline current plans to better engage landowners and local communities, solicit new project types, and maintain enough flexibility within the program to adapt to new priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing Legacy Waste Management to Advanced Reactor Waste Management

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) are organizing an international workshop on the implementation of radioactive waste management and decommissioning strategies in small modular reactors (SMRs) and advance reactor technologies. The event will take place in Ottawa, Canada on 7-10 November 2022. The workshop will convene participants from various fields of expertise in the areas of radioactive waste management, decommissioning, nuclear science and development, transportation, as well as young professionals, communication experts and researchers. The goal of the workshop is to devise a guideline document that will serve implementers in understanding key issues in decommissioning and waste management of new reactors from the design perspective, aiding in the licensing process and in future decommissioning and waste management activities. DOE has invested considerably in the innovation of advanced reactors. Interaction in this workshop allows INL and DOE to articulate the importance of looking at the back-end of the fuel cycle for advanced reactors. The back-end of the fuel cycle is important to the success of advanced reactors, and DOE may need to manage this material in the future after it is discharged from reactors. I have been asked to present at the track titled "Operational and Design Optimization Consideration Related to Decommissioning and Radioactive Waste Management for SMRs/Advanced Reactors".

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Science Capsule: Towards Sharing and Reproducibility of Scientific Workflows

Workflows are increasingly processing large volumes of data from scientific instruments, experiments and sensors. These workflows often consist of complex data processing and analysis steps that might include a diverse ecosystem of tools and also often involve human-in-the-loop steps. Sharing and reproducing these workflows with collaborators and the larger community is critical but hard to do without the entire context of the workflow including user notes and execution environment. In this paper, we describe Science Capsule, which is a framework to capture, share, and reproduce scientific workflows. Science Capsule captures, manages and represents both computational and human elements of a workflow. It automatically captures and processes events associated with the execution and data life cycle of workflows, and lets users add other types and forms of scientific artifacts. Science Capsule also allows users to create `workflow snapshots' that keep track of the different versions of a workflow and their lineage, allowing scientists to incrementally share and extend workflows between users. Our results show that Science Capsule is capable of processing and organizing events in near real-time for high-throughput experimental and data analysis workflows without incurring any significant performance overheads.

Ghoshal, Devarshi↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 34, No. 1, January-March 1993]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 An Integrated Regional Approach To Risk Management of Industrial Systems, S. Chakraborty and R. Stratton; 9 Annual Technical Meeting of the NRC Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, E. G. Silver; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 13 Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria as Severe Accident Design Criteria and Policy for the New Production Reactor-Heavy Water Reactor, P. T. Rhoads; 20 Proposed Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria for the Heavy Water Reactor-New Production Reactor Containment, K. D. Bergeron, S. E. Slezak, and C. E. Leach; 33 Quasi-Static Core Liquid Level Depression and Long-Term Core Uncovery During a PWR LOCA, Y. Kukita, R. R. Schultz, H. Nakamura, and J. Katayama; 49 LIRA: An Advanced Containment System to Minimize the Accidental Radioactivity Releases, A. Turricchia; 63 Errata to “A Review of Hydrogen Production During Melt/Water Interaction in LWRs,” Vol. 33, No. 4; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 64 The Nuplex 80+™ Advanced Control Complex from ABB Combustion Engineering, F. Ridolfo, D. Harmon, and K. Scarola; DESIGN FEATURES: 76 A Scheme for Passive Isolation of the Containment of a Reactor, A. K. Ghosh, V. V. Raj, and K. Kakodkar; 84 Utility Requirements for Safety in the Passive Advanced Light-Water Reactor, T. U. Marston, W. H. Layman, and G. Bockhold, Jr.; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 91 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 103 Testing Deficiencies in Auxiliary Systems Feedwater Systems, J. D. Kueck; 110 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 113 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 115 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 133 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 145 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 150 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1992; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 75 Harvard Short Course on Risk: Science, Assessment, and Management; 102 International Conference on Reactor Physics and Reactor Computations; 102 The Fourth International Conference on Nuclear Waste Reprocessing and Waste Management [RECOD ’94]; 132 International Symposium on the Radiological Exposure of the Population of the European Community from Radioactivity in the Mediterranean Sea [MARINA-MED]; 162 International High-Level Radioactive Waste Conference ‘Technology Integration—Above and Below”; 154 The Authors; 158 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 33.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

IHE Material and IHE Subassembly Qualification Test Description and Criteria (v. 14.7)

The purpose of the deflagration-to-detonation test is to demonstrate that an IHE material will not undergo deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) under stockpile relevant conditions of scale, confinement, and material condition. Inherent in this test design is the assumption that ignition does occur, with onset of deflagration. The test design will incorporate large margins and replicates to account for the stochastic nature of DDT events.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 34, No. 1, January-March 1993]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 An Integrated Regional Approach To Risk Management of Industrial Systems, S. Chakraborty and R. Stratton; 9 Annual Technical Meeting of the NRC Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, E. G. Silver; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 13 Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria as Severe Accident Design Criteria and Policy for the New Production Reactor-Heavy Water Reactor, P. T. Rhoads; 20 Proposed Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria for the Heavy Water Reactor-New Production Reactor Containment, K. D. Bergeron, S. E. Slezak, and C. E. Leach; 33 Quasi-Static Core Liquid Level Depression and Long-Term Core Uncovery During a PWR LOCA, Y. Kukita, R. R. Schultz, H. Nakamura, and J. Katayama; 49 LIRA: An Advanced Containment System to Minimize the Accidental Radioactivity Releases, A. Turricchia; 63 Errata to “A Review of Hydrogen Production During Melt/Water Interaction in LWRs,” Vol. 33, No. 4; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 64 The Nuplex 80+™ Advanced Control Complex from ABB Combustion Engineering, F. Ridolfo, D. Harmon, and K. Scarola; DESIGN FEATURES: 76 A Scheme for Passive Isolation of the Containment of a Reactor, A. K. Ghosh, V. V. Raj, and K. Kakodkar; 84 Utility Requirements for Safety in the Passive Advanced Light-Water Reactor, T. U. Marston, W. H. Layman, and G. Bockhold, Jr.; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 91 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 103 Testing Deficiencies in Auxiliary Systems Feedwater Systems, J. D. Kueck; 110 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 113 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 115 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 133 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 145 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 150 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1992; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 75 Harvard Short Course on Risk: Science, Assessment, and Management; 102 International Conference on Reactor Physics and Reactor Computations; 102 The Fourth International Conference on Nuclear Waste Reprocessing and Waste Management [RECOD ’94]; 132 International Symposium on the Radiological Exposure of the Population of the European Community from Radioactivity in the Mediterranean Sea [MARINA-MED]; 162 International High-Level Radioactive Waste Conference ‘Technology Integration—Above and Below”; 154 The Authors; 158 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 33.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory: Report on Rapid R&D Solutions to the COVID-19 Crisis

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply short ages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. Within months, NVBL teams produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. They used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. NVBL teams also studied how to control indoor virus movement to minimize uptake and protect human health. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development (R&D) solutions. As the fight against COVID continues, sustained efforts are needed to confront this pandemic as well as future threats. Examples include: 1) Establishing “supply chains on demand” to meet emergency production needs by leveraging the materials and manufacturing expertise of DOE national laboratories and developing advances in electronics, sensing, robotics, and automation capabilities; 2) Improving the speed and robustness of drug discovery by integrating experimental platforms with DOE’s computational and experimental user facilities, which provide unique resources to support the discovery of high-potential therapeutic agents; 3) Protecting public, environmental, and animal health by developing new testing protocols and instrumentation adaptable to diverse sample types (both physiological and environmental) to quickly detect a wide range of pathogens and monitor other biorisks; 4) Supporting near-real-time data needs of decision-makers at the local, regional, state, and national levels by advancing data curation, analysis, and modeling using artificial intelligence and new data science tools for managing and evaluating large diverse datasets; 5) Harnessing DOE’s expertise in environmental modeling to design rooms and air handling for offices, classrooms, restaurants, and other structures to minimize biorisk transmissions. Going forward, NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, the Office of Science will continue to be an integral component of agency wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early Career Perspectives to Broaden the Scope of Critical Zone Science

Abstract Critical Zone (CZ) scientists have advanced understanding of Earth's surface through process‐based research that quantifies water, energy, and mass fluxes in predominantly undisturbed systems. However, the CZ is being increasingly altered by humans through climate and land use change. Expanding the scope of CZ science to include both human‐ and non‐human controls on the CZ is important for understanding anthropogenic impacts to Earth's surface processes and ecosystem services. Here, we share perspectives from predominantly U.S.‐based, early career CZ scientists centered around broadening the scope of CZ science to focus on societally relevant science through a transdisciplinary science framework. We call for increased training on transdisciplinary methods and collaboration opportunities across disciplines and with stakeholders to foster a scientific community that values transdisciplinary science alongside physical science. Here, we build on existing transdisciplinary research frameworks by highlighting the need for institutional support to include and educate graduate students throughout the research processes. We also call for graduate‐student‐led initiatives to increase their own exposure to transdisciplinary science through activities such as transdisciplinary‐focused seminars and symposiums, volunteering with local conservation groups, and participating in internships outside academia.

Warix, Sara [University of Utah Department of Geol↗

Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at the Exascale

Domain science applications and workflow processes are currently forced to view the network as an opaque infrastructure into which they inject data and hope that it emerges at the destination with an acceptable Quality of Experience. There is little ability for applications to interact with the network to exchange information, negotiate performance parameters, discover expected performance metrics, or receive status/troubleshooting information in real time. The work we presen here is motivated by a vision for a new smart network and smart application ecosystem that will provide a more deterministic and interactive environment for domain science workflows. The Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale (SENSE) system includes a model-based architecture, implementation, and deployment which enables automated end-to-end network service instantiation across administrative domains. An intent based interface allows applications to express their high-level service requirements, an intelligent orchestrator and resource control systems allow for custom tailoring of scalability and real-time responsiveness based on individual application and infrastructure operator requirements. This allows the science applications to manage the network as a first-class schedulable resource as is the current practice for instruments, compute, and storage systems. Deployment and experiments on production networks and testbeds have validated SENSE functions and performance. Emulation based testing verified the scalability needed to support research and education infrastructures. Key contributions of this work include an architecture definition, reference implementation, and deployment. This provides the basis for further innovation of smart network services to accelerate scientific discovery in the era of big data, cloud computing, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Active causal learning for decoding chemical complexities with targeted interventions

Abstract Predicting and enhancing inherent properties based on molecular structures is paramount to design tasks in medicine, materials science, and environmental management. Most of the current machine learning and deep learning approaches have become standard for predictions, but they face challenges when applied across different datasets due to reliance on correlations between molecular representation and target properties. These approaches typically depend on large datasets to capture the diversity within the chemical space, facilitating a more accurate approximation, interpolation, or extrapolation of the chemical behavior of molecules. In our research, we introduce an active learning approach that discerns underlying cause-effect relationships through strategic sampling with the use of a graph loss function. This method identifies the smallest subset of the dataset capable of encoding the most information representative of a much larger chemical space. The identified causal relations are then leveraged to conduct systematic interventions, optimizing the design task within a chemical space that the models have not encountered previously. While our implementation focused on the QM9 quantum-chemical dataset for a specific design task—finding molecules with a large dipole moment—our active causal learning approach, driven by intelligent sampling and interventions, holds potential for broader applications in molecular, materials design and discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗