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Observation and integrated Earth-system science: A roadmap for 2016–2025

This report is the response to a request by the Committee on Space Research of the International Council for Science to prepare a roadmap on observation and integrated Earth-system science for the coming ten years. Its focus is on the combined use of observations and modelling to address the functioning, predictability and projected evolution of interacting components of the Earth system on timescales out to a century or so. It discusses how observations support integrated Earth-system science and its applications, and identifies planned enhancements to the contributing observing systems and other requirements for observations and their processing. All types of observation are considered, but emphasis is placed on those made from space. The origins and development of the integrated view of the Earth system are outlined, noting the interactions between the main components that lead to requirements for integrated science and modelling, and for the observations that guide and support them. What constitutes an Earth-system model is discussed. Summaries are given of key cycles within the Earth system. The nature of Earth observation and the arrangements for international coordination essential for effective operation of global observing systems are introduced. Instances are given of present types of observation, what is already on the roadmap for 2016–2025 and some of the issues to be faced. Observations that are organized on a systematic basis and observations that are made for process understanding and model development, or other research or demonstration purposes, are covered. Specific accounts are given for many of the variables of the Earth system. The current status and prospects for Earth-system modelling are summarized. The evolution towards applying Earth-system models for environmental monitoring and prediction as well as for climate simulation and projection is outlined. General aspects of the improvement of models, whether through refining the representations of processes that are already incorporated or through adding new processes or components, are discussed. Some important elements of Earth-system models are considered more fully. Data assimilation is discussed not only because it uses observations and models to generate datasets for monitoring the Earth system and for initiating and evaluating predictions, in particular through reanalysis, but also because of the feedback it provides on the quality of both the observations and the models employed. Inverse methods for surface-flux or model-parameter estimation are also covered. Reviews are given of the way observations and the processed datasets based on them are used for evaluating models, and of the combined use of observations and models for monitoring and interpreting the behaviour of the Earth system and for predicting and projecting its future. A set of concluding discussions covers general developmental needs, requirements for continuity of space-based observing systems, further long-term requirements for observations and other data, technological advances and data challenges, and the importance of enhanced international co-operation.

Earth system science↗

The U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap: Near-term research priorities for the development of plasma-facing and structural materials for fusion power plants

In response to the needs of a rapidly growing private fusion industry, the U.S. Fusion Materials Coordinating Committee (FMCC) and the broader U.S. fusion materials research community undertook an extensive effort to create a comprehensive roadmap for fusion materials development. The result of this effort was the U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap (US-FMCR), which describes the steps needed to advance the technical maturity of leading candidates for plasma-facing materials and structural materials for fusion power plants from laboratory-scale experiments to a point of sufficient technological readiness for industrial adoption and implementation. However, researchers face significant resource constraints as well as very aggressive pilot plant development timelines. Thus, the research strategies detailed in the US-FMCR require further assessment to downselect the specific tasks that must be prioritized within the next two to three years, in order to make the most efficient use of funding, human resources, and experimental facilities. This paper presents an overview of the US-FMCR and its development process. We also present the subset of research objectives that the FMCC identified as the most urgent research priorities for the U.S. fusion materials research community. The state-of-the-art of materials research is also highlighted for each class of materials considered in the US-FMCR. The recommendations presented here integrate an extensive evaluation of the current status of fusion materials research with a broad cross-section of opinion from the wider U.S. fusion community.

Ferry, Sara [Massachusetts Institute of Technology↗

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Roadmap for Deployment of Modularized Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Understanding the Impacts of Industry Learning, Optimal Plant Scale, and Delivery Costs on Biofuel Pricing

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology for converting abundant organic wastes into fuels. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of HTL have been used to estimate the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel products, but these analyses often assume a bespoke plant design where each plant operates under unique process conditions and neglect transportation costs. However, transportation costs must be included in realistic TEAs, and further, a mass-produced fixed-scale modular plant design approach may be more effective than case-by-case plant design, provided that there is sufficient market capacity to benefit from modularization. This study estimates fuel price behavior in the presence of transportation costs and benefits stemming from modular plant design. This analysis indicates that a modular process capable of handling 60 dry tons per day (DTPD) is optimal, resulting in a ~25% reduction in MFSP (from $4.70/GGE, fully upgraded) at complete market feedstock utilization compared with case-by-case design. The associated cost reductions are attributable to learning benefits and modularization. Several HTL deployment “roadmaps” are then explored, with each roadmap consisting of different periods of case-by-case design followed by adoption of a modularized approach. A period of nonmodular industry growth up to market saturation of ~7% followed by implementation of modular plant design strikes a balance between the investment risk and learned cost reductions associated with modular plant design. However, if bespoke plants built during this period of nonmodular growth saturate more than 23% of available feedstock, learned cost reductions are significantly diminished. Here, this study points to the potential benefits of modularized and decentralized waste-to-energy processes when the modularization follows an optimal deployment strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries have garnered notable attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and price volatility for key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modelling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration and learning rates. Assuming that substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted research and development, we identify several sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the 2030s. In addition, we show that timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains—namely that of lithium, graphite and nickel. Our modelled outcomes suggest that being price advantageous against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the near term is challenging and increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity is among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The 2019 materials by design roadmap

Advances in renewable and sustainable energy technologies critically depend on our ability to design and realize materials with optimal properties. Materials discovery and design efforts ideally involve close coupling between materials prediction, synthesis and characterization. Increased use of computational tools, the generation of materials databases, and advances in experimental methods have substantially accelerated these activities. It is therefore an opportune time to consider future prospects for materials by design approaches. The purpose of this roadmap is to present an overview of the current state of computational materials prediction, synthesis and characterization approaches, materials design needs for various technologies, and future challenges and opportunities that must be addressed. Perspectives cover topics on computational techniques, validation, materials databases, materials informatics, high-throughput combinatorial methods, advanced characterization approaches, and materials design issues in thermoelectrics, photovoltaics, solid state lighting, catalysts, batteries, metal alloys, complex oxides and transparent conducting materials. It is our hope that this roadmap will guide researchers and funding agencies in identifying new prospects for materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The 2022 magneto-optics roadmap

Abstract Magneto-optical (MO) effects, viz. magnetically induced changes in light intensity or polarization upon reflection from or transmission through a magnetic sample, were discovered over a century and a half ago. Initially they played a crucially relevant role in unveiling the fundamentals of electromagnetism and quantum mechanics. A more broad-based relevance and wide-spread use of MO methods, however, remained quite limited until the 1960s due to a lack of suitable, reliable and easy-to-operate light sources. The advent of Laser technology and the availability of other novel light sources led to an enormous expansion of MO measurement techniques and applications that continues to this day (see section 1). The here-assembled roadmap article is intended to provide a meaningful survey over many of the most relevant recent developments, advances, and emerging research directions in a rather condensed form, so that readers can easily access a significant overview about this very dynamic research field. While light source technology and other experimental developments were crucial in the establishment of today’s magneto-optics, progress also relies on an ever-increasing theoretical understanding of MO effects from a quantum mechanical perspective (see section 2), as well as using electromagnetic theory and modelling approaches (see section 3) to enable quantitatively reliable predictions for ever more complex materials, metamaterials, and device geometries. The latest advances in established MO methodologies and especially the utilization of the MO Kerr effect (MOKE) are presented in sections 4 (MOKE spectroscopy), 5 (higher order MOKE effects), 6 (MOKE microscopy), 8 (high sensitivity MOKE), 9 (generalized MO ellipsometry), and 20 (Cotton–Mouton effect in two-dimensional materials). In addition, MO effects are now being investigated and utilized in spectral ranges, to which they originally seemed completely foreign, as those of synchrotron radiation x-rays (see section 14 on three-dimensional magnetic characterization and section 16 on light beams carrying orbital angular momentum) and, very recently, the terahertz (THz) regime (see section 18 on THz MOKE and section 19 on THz ellipsometry for electron paramagnetic resonance detection). Magneto-optics also demonstrates its strength in a unique way when combined with femtosecond laser pulses (see section 10 on ultrafast MOKE and section 15 on magneto-optics using x-ray free electron lasers), facilitating the very active field of time-resolved MO spectroscopy that enables investigations of phenomena like spin relaxation of non-equilibrium photoexcited carriers, transient modifications of ferromagnetic order, and photo-induced dynamic phase transitions, to name a few. Recent progress in nanoscience and nanotechnology, which is intimately linked to the achieved impressive ability to reliably fabricate materials and functional structures at the nanoscale, now enables the exploitation of strongly enhanced MO effects induced by light–matter interaction at the nanoscale (see section 12 on magnetoplasmonics and section 13 on MO metasurfaces). MO effects are also at the very heart of powerful magnetic characterization techniques like Brillouin light scattering and time-resolved pump-probe measurements for the study of spin waves (see section 7), their interactions with acoustic waves (see section 11), and ultra-sensitive magnetic field sensing applications based on nitrogen-vacancy centres in diamond (see section 17). Despite our best attempt to represent the field of magneto-optics accurately and do justice to all its novel developments and its diversity, the research area is so extensive and active that there remains great latitude in deciding what to include in an article of this sort, which in turn means that some areas might not be adequately represented here. However, we feel that the 20 sections that form this 2022 magneto-optics roadmap article, each written by experts in the field and addressing a specific subject on only two pages, provide an accurate snapshot of where this research field stands today. Correspondingly, it should act as a valuable reference point and guideline for emerging research directions in modern magneto-optics, as well as illustrate the directions this research field might take in the foreseeable future.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The 2026 guided acoustic waves roadmap

Guided elastic waves are a truly cross-disciplinary key enabling technology. For more than five decades, surface acoustic wave (SAW) and bulk acoustic wave devices find widespread applications. Nowadays, different types of guided elastic waves cover the wide spectrum of applications spanning from quantum technologies to the life sciences, from controlling single excitations to macroscopic collective states in condensed matter. Six years after the first 2019 SAW roadmap, we believe it is time to make a step back and take a fresh look at the status of the field and its future challenges. Since the first roadmap in 2019, the spectrum clearly expanded and this new edition presents a current snapshot of the status of this vibrant field and prospects for potential future developments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Roadmap on multiscale materials modeling

Modeling and simulation is transforming modern materials science, becoming an important tool for the discovery of new materials and material phenomena, for gaining insight into the processes that govern materials behavior, and, increasingly, for quantitative predictions that can be used as part of a design tool in full partnership with experimental synthesis and characterization. Modeling and simulation is the essential bridge from good science to good engineering, spanning from fundamental understanding of materials behavior to deliberate design of new materials technologies leveraging new properties and processes. This Roadmap presents a broad overview of the extensive impact computational modeling has had in materials science in the past few decades, and offers focused perspectives on where the path forward lies as this rapidly expanding field evolves to meet the challenges of the next few decades. The Roadmap offers perspectives on advances within disciplines as diverse as phase field methods to model mesoscale behavior and molecular dynamics methods to deduce the fundamental atomic-scale dynamical processes governing materials response, to the challenges involved in the interdisciplinary research that tackles complex materials problems where the governing phenomena span different scales of materials behavior requiring multiscale approaches. The shift from understanding fundamental materials behavior to development of quantitative approaches to explain and predict experimental observations requires advances in the methods and practice in simulations for reproducibility and reliability, and interacting with a computational ecosystem that integrates new theory development, innovative applications, and an increasingly integrated software and computational infrastructure that takes advantage of the increasingly powerful computational methods and computing hardware.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Roadmap on nanoscale magnetic resonance imaging

Abstract The field of nanoscale magnetic resonance imaging (NanoMRI) was started 30 years ago. It was motivated by the desire to image single molecules and molecular assemblies, such as proteins and virus particles, with near-atomic spatial resolution and on a length scale of 100 nm. Over the years, the NanoMRI field has also expanded to include the goal of useful high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy of molecules under ambient conditions, including samples up to the micron-scale. The realization of these goals requires the development of spin detection techniques that are many orders of magnitude more sensitive than conventional NMR and MRI, capable of detecting and controlling nanoscale ensembles of spins. Over the years, a number of different technical approaches to NanoMRI have emerged, each possessing a distinct set of capabilities for basic and applied areas of science. The goal of this roadmap article is to report the current state of the art in NanoMRI technologies, outline the areas where they are poised to have impact, identify the challenges that lie ahead, and propose methods to meet these challenges. This roadmap also shows how developments in NanoMRI techniques can lead to breakthroughs in emerging quantum science and technology applications.

Budakian, Raffi↗

Roadmap on semiconductor–cell biointerfaces

This roadmap outlines the role semiconductor-based materials play in understanding the complex biophysical dynamics at multiple length scales, as well as the design and implementation of next-generation electronic, optoelectronic, and mechanical devices for biointerfaces. The roadmap emphasizes the advantages of semiconductor building blocks in interfacing, monitoring, and manipulating the activity of biological components, and discusses the possibility of using active semiconductor-cell interfaces for discovering new signaling processes in the biological world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Roadmap on emerging concepts in the physical biology of bacterial biofilms: from surface sensing to community formation

Abstract Bacterial biofilms are communities of bacteria that exist as aggregates that can adhere to surfaces or be free-standing. This complex, social mode of cellular organization is fundamental to the physiology of microbes and often exhibits surprising behavior. Bacterial biofilms are more than the sum of their parts: single-cell behavior has a complex relation to collective community behavior, in a manner perhaps cognate to the complex relation between atomic physics and condensed matter physics. Biofilm microbiology is a relatively young field by biology standards, but it has already attracted intense attention from physicists. Sometimes, this attention takes the form of seeing biofilms as inspiration for new physics. In this roadmap, we highlight the work of those who have taken the opposite strategy: we highlight the work of physicists and physical scientists who use physics to engage fundamental concepts in bacterial biofilm microbiology, including adhesion, sensing, motility, signaling, memory, energy flow, community formation and cooperativity. These contributions are juxtaposed with microbiologists who have made recent important discoveries on bacterial biofilms using state-of-the-art physical methods. The contributions to this roadmap exemplify how well physics and biology can be combined to achieve a new synthesis, rather than just a division of labor.

Wong, Gerard C. L. (ORCID:0000000308936383)↗

Roadmap on basic research needs for laser technology

Motivated by the profound impact of laser technology on science, arising from an increase in focused light intensity by seven orders of magnitude and flashes so short electron motion is visible, this roadmap outlines the paths forward in laser technology to enable the next generation of science and applications. Despite remarkable progress, the field confronts challenges in developing compact, high-power sources, enhancing scalability and efficiency, and ensuring safety standards. Future research endeavors aim to revolutionize laser power, energy, repetition rate and precision control; to transform mid-infrared sources; to revolutionize approaches to field control and frequency conversion. These require reinvention of materials and optics to enable intense laser science and interdisciplinary collaboration. The roadmap underscores the dynamic nature of laser technology and its potential to address global challenges, propelling progress and fostering sustainable development. Ultimately, advancements in laser technology hold promise to revolutionize myriad applications, heralding a future defined by innovation, efficiency, and sustainability.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The 2021 quantum materials roadmap

In recent years, the notion of ‘Quantum Materials’ has emerged as a powerful unifying concept across diverse fields of science and engineering, from condensed-matter and coldatom physics to materials science and quantum computing. Beyond traditional quantum materials such as unconventional superconductors, heavy fermions, and multiferroics, the field has significantly expanded to encompass topological quantum matter, two-dimensional materials and their van der Waals heterostructures, Moiré materials, Floquet time crystals, as well as materials and devices for quantum computation with Majorana fermions. In this Roadmap collection we aim to capture a snapshot of the most recent developments in the field, and to identify outstanding challenges and emerging opportunities. The format of the Roadmap, whereby experts in each discipline share their viewpoint and articulate their vision for quantum materials, reflects the dynamic and multifaceted nature of this research area, and is meant to encourage exchanges and discussions across traditional disciplinary boundaries. It is our hope that this collective vision will contribute to sparking new fascinating questions and activities at the intersection of materials science, condensed matter physics, device engineering, and quantum information, and to shaping a clearer landscape of quantum materials science as a new frontier of interdisciplinary scientific inquiry. We stress that this article is not meant to be a fully comprehensive review but rather an up-to-date snapshot of different areas of research on quantum materials with a minimal number of references focusing on the latest developments.

2D materials↗

2024 roadmap on magnetic microscopy techniques and their applications in materials science

Considering the growing interest in magnetic materials for unconventional computing, data storage, and sensor applications, there is active research not only on material synthesis but also characterisation of their properties. In addition to structural and integral magnetic characterisations, imaging of magnetisation patterns, current distributions and magnetic fields at nano- and microscale is of major importance to understand the material responses and qualify them for specific applications. In this roadmap, we aim to cover a broad portfolio of techniques to perform nano- and microscale magnetic imaging using superconducting quantum interference devices, spin centre and Hall effect magnetometries, scanning probe microscopies, x-ray- and electron-based methods as well as magnetooptics and nanoscale magnetic resonance imaging. The roadmap is aimed as a single access point of information for experts in the field as well as the young generation of students outlining prospects of the development of magnetic imaging technologies for the upcoming decade with a focus on physics, materials science, and chemistry of planar, three-dimensional and geometrically curved objects of different material classes including two-dimensional materials, complex oxides, semi-metals, multiferroics, skyrmions, antiferromagnets, frustrated magnets, magnetic molecules/nanoparticles, ionic conductors, superconductors, spintronic and spinorbitronic materials.

2D materials↗

Roadmap for a sustainable circular economy in lithium-ion and future battery technologies

Abstract The market dynamics, and their impact on a future circular economy for lithium-ion batteries (LIB), are presented in this roadmap, with safety as an integral consideration throughout the life cycle. At the point of end-of-life (EOL), there is a range of potential options—remanufacturing, reuse and recycling. Diagnostics play a significant role in evaluating the state-of-health and condition of batteries, and improvements to diagnostic techniques are evaluated. At present, manual disassembly dominates EOL disposal, however, given the volumes of future batteries that are to be anticipated, automated approaches to the dismantling of EOL battery packs will be key. The first stage in recycling after the removal of the cells is the initial cell-breaking or opening step. Approaches to this are reviewed, contrasting shredding and cell disassembly as two alternative approaches. Design for recycling is one approach that could assist in easier disassembly of cells, and new approaches to cell design that could enable the circular economy of LIBs are reviewed. After disassembly, subsequent separation of the black mass is performed before further concentration of components. There are a plethora of alternative approaches for recovering materials; this roadmap sets out the future directions for a range of approaches including pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy, short-loop, direct, and the biological recovery of LIB materials. Furthermore, anode, lithium, electrolyte, binder and plastics recovery are considered in order to maximise the proportion of materials recovered, minimise waste and point the way towards zero-waste recycling. The life-cycle implications of a circular economy are discussed considering the overall system of LIB recycling, and also directly investigating the different recycling methods. The legal and regulatory perspectives are also considered. Finally, with a view to the future, approaches for next-generation battery chemistries and recycling are evaluated, identifying gaps for research. This review takes the form of a series of short reviews, with each section written independently by a diverse international authorship of experts on the topic. Collectively, these reviews form a comprehensive picture of the current state of the art in LIB recycling, and how these technologies are expected to develop in the future.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

2023 roadmap for potassium-ion batteries

Abstract The heavy reliance of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) has caused rising concerns on the sustainability of lithium and transition metal and the ethic issue around mining practice. Developing alternative energy storage technologies beyond lithium has become a prominent slice of global energy research portfolio. The alternative technologies play a vital role in shaping the future landscape of energy storage, from electrified mobility to the efficient utilization of renewable energies and further to large-scale stationary energy storage. Potassium-ion batteries (PIBs) are a promising alternative given its chemical and economic benefits, making a strong competitor to LIBs and sodium-ion batteries for different applications. However, many are unknown regarding potassium storage processes in materials and how it differs from lithium and sodium and understanding of solid–liquid interfacial chemistry is massively insufficient in PIBs. Therefore, there remain outstanding issues to advance the commercial prospects of the PIB technology. This Roadmap highlights the up-to-date scientific and technological advances and the insights into solving challenging issues to accelerate the development of PIBs. We hope this Roadmap aids the wider PIB research community and provides a cross-referencing to other beyond lithium energy storage technologies in the fast-pacing research landscape.

Xu, Yang (ORCID:0000000301776348)↗

Driving Zn-MnO2 grid-scale batteries: A roadmap to cost-effective energy storage

Highlights Zn-MnO 2 batteries promise safe, reliable energy storage, and this roadmap outlines a combination of manufacturing strategies and technical innovations that could make this goal achievable. Approaches such as improved efficiency of manufacturing and increasing active material utilization will be important to getting costs as low as $100/kWh, but key materials innovations that facilitate the full 2-electron capacity utilization of MnO 2 , the use of high energy density 3D electrodes, and the promise of a separator-free battery with greater than 2V potential offer a route to batteries at $50/kWh or less. Abstract Large-scale energy storage is certain to play a significant, enabling role in the evolution of the emerging electrical grid. Battery-based storage, while not a dominant form of storage today, has opportunity to expand its utility through safe, reliable, and cost-effective technologies. Here, secondary Zn–MnO 2 batteries are highlighted as a promising extension of ubiquitous primary alkaline batteries, offering a safe, environmentally friendly chemistry in a scalable and practical energy dense technology. Importantly, there is a very realistic pathway to also making such batteries cost-effective at price points of $50/kWh or lower. By examining manufacturing examples at the Zn–MnO 2 battery manufacturer Urban Electric Power, a roadmap has been created to realize such low-cost systems. By focusing on manufacturing optimization through reduced materials waste, scalable manufacturing, and effective materials selection, costs can be significantly reduced. Ultimately, though, coupling these approaches with emerging research and development advances to enable full capacity active materials utilization and battery voltages greater than 2V are likely needed to drive costs below a target of $50/kWh. Reaching this commercially important goal, especially with a chemistry that is safe, well-known, and reliably effective stands to inject Zn–MnO 2 batteries in the storage landscape at a critical time in energy storage development and deployment. Graphical abstract

Spoerke, Erik D. (ORCID:0000000322862560)↗