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DOE OSTI2024

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multilayer Network Clarifies Prevailing Water Consumption Telecouplings in the United States

Virtual water flows are used to map the indirect water consumption connections implied by the supply chain of a city, region, or country. This information can be used to manage supply chains to achieve environmental policy objectives and mitigate environmental risks to critical supply chains. A limitation of prior work is that these flows are typically analyzed using monolayer networks, which ignores crucial intersectoral or interlayer couplings. Here, in this study, we use a multilayer network to account for such couplings when analyzing blue virtual water flows in the United States. Our multilayer network consists of 115 different regions (nodes), covering the entire conterminous United States; 41 coupled economic sectors (layers); and ∼2 × 10 7 possible links. To analyze the multilayer network, we focus on three fundamental network properties: topological connectivity, mesoscale structure, and node centrality. The network has a high connectivity, with each node being on average connected to roughly 2/3 of the network's nodes. Interlayer flows are a major driver of connectivity, representing ∼54% of all the network's connections. Five different groups of tightly connected nodes (communities) characterize the network. Each community represents a preferred spatial mode of long-range virtual water interaction within the United States. We find that large (populous) cities have a stronger influence than small ones on network functioning because they attract and recirculate more virtual water through their supply chains. Our results also highlight differences between the multilayer and monolayer virtual water network, which overall show that the former provides a more realistic representation of virtual water flows.

Garcia Gonzalez, Susana↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗

NASA NTRS1981

Materials experiment carrier concepts definition study. Volume 1: Executive summary, part 2

The materials experiment carrier (MEC) is an optimized carrier for near term and advanced materials processing in space (MPS) research and commercial payloads. When coupled with the space platform (SP), the MEC can provide the extended duration, high power and low acceleration environment the MPS payload typically requires. The lowest cost, technically reasonable first step MEC that meets the MPS program missions objectives with minimum programmatic risks is defined. The effectiveness of the initial MEC/space platform idea for accommodating high priority, multidiscipline, R&D and commercial MPS payloads, and conducting MPS payload oprations at affordable funding and acceptable productivity levels is demonstrated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

Real-time operational planning for the U.S. air traffic system

This paper describes an integrated planning model for the U.S. air traffic system. The approach incorporates the dual objectives of monitoring collision risk while minimizing transportation costs. Specialized solution algorithms exploit the underlying structure of the model - especially for large-scale examples. The proposed formulation is tested with real-world data for the Indianapolis control sector. Additional experiments with a CRAY X-MP/24 supercomputer show that a full-scale model can be solved under real time conditions. Despite these advances, additional work is required in developing a practical system. Suggestions are made for combining advances in computer graphics and mathematical modeling.

Mulvey, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Computer vision techniques for rotorcraft low altitude flight

Rotorcraft operating in high-threat environments fly close to the earth's surface to utilize surrounding terrain, vegetation, or manmade objects to minimize the risk of being detected by an enemy. Increasing levels of concealment are achieved by adopting different tactics during low-altitude flight. Rotorcraft employ three tactics during low-altitude flight: low-level, contour, and nap-of-the-earth (NOE). The key feature distinguishing the NOE mode from the other two modes is that the whole rotorcraft, including the main rotor, is below tree-top whenever possible. This leads to the use of lateral maneuvers for avoiding obstacles, which in fact constitutes the means for concealment. The piloting of the rotorcraft is at best a very demanding task and the pilot will need help from onboard automation tools in order to devote more time to mission-related activities. The development of an automation tool which has the potential to detect obstacles in the rotorcraft flight path, warn the crew, and interact with the guidance system to avoid detected obstacles, presents challenging problems. Research is described which applies techniques from computer vision to automation of rotorcraft navigtion. The effort emphasizes the development of a methodology for detecting the ranges to obstacles in the region of interest based on the maximum utilization of passive sensors. The range map derived from the obstacle-detection approach can be used as obstacle data for the obstacle avoidance in an automatic guidance system and as advisory display to the pilot. The lack of suitable flight imagery data presents a problem in the verification of concepts for obstacle detection. This problem is being addressed by the development of an adequate flight database and by preprocessing of currently available flight imagery. The presentation concludes with some comments on future work and how research in this area relates to the guidance of other autonomous vehicles.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS1991

National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Automated Information Security Handbook

The NASA Automated Information Security Handbook provides NASA's overall approach to automated information systems security including discussions of such aspects as: program goals and objectives, assignment of responsibilities, risk assessment, foreign national access, contingency planning and disaster recovery, awareness training, procurement, certification, planning, and special considerations for microcomputers.

Roback, E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An international program to protect the earth from impact catastrophe - Initial steps

Risks posed by impacting objects of various sizes are analyzed using the Spaceguard Survey, the 1992 NASA report of International Near-Earth-Object (NEO) Detection workshop. The state-of-the-art technology makes it possible to discover and track nearly all earth-crossing asteroids and short-period comets large enough to threaten global catastrophe. To deal with this hazard a long-term telescopic search is required that reaches stellar magnitude 22 in order to achieve a nearly complete census of objects 1 km or larger. A program can be performed on the basis of an international network of six telescopes of 2-3 m aperture equipped with modern CCD detectors and automatic signal processing capability.

Morrison, David↗

NASA NTRS2011

N plus 3 Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transport Aircraft Entering Service in the 2030-2035 Period

Boeing, with Pratt & Whitney, General Electric, Rolls-Royce, M4 Engineering, Wyle Laboratories and Georgia Institute of Technology, conducted a study of supersonic commercial aircraft concepts and enabling technologies for the year 2030-2035 timeframe. The work defined the market and environmental/regulatory conditions that could evolve by the 2030/35 time period, from which vehicle performance goals were derived. Relevant vehicle concepts and technologies are identified that are anticipated to meet these performance and environmental goals. A series of multidisciplinary analyses trade studies considering vehicle sizing, mission performance and environmental conformity determined the appropriate concepts. Combinations of enabling technologies and the required technology performance levels needed to meet the desired goals were identified. Several high priority technologies are described in detail, including roadmaps with risk assessments that outline objectives, key technology challenges, detailed tasks and schedules and demonstrations that need to be performed. A representative configuration is provided for reference purposes, along with associated performance estimates based on these key technologies.

Welge, H. Robert↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Re-Entry Prediction and Analysis

No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS was designed, built, and launched. Time of reentry estimates were within normal limits NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000. UARS was a moderate-sized space object. Uncontrolled reentries of objects more massive than UARS are not frequent, but neither are they unusual. Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.

Stansbery, Eugene↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Earned Value Management (EVM) Update

Earned Value Management (EVM) is an integrated management control system for assessing, understanding and qualifying what a project is achieving with the resoures. EVM integrates technical cost and schedules with risk management. It allows objective assessment and quantification of current project performance, and helps predict future performance-based trents.

Kerby, Jerald↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shooting the Moon

This story is about an unlikely NASA mission to the Moon. It was unlikely because it was started with far too little time and too-little money to complete. It was unlikely because it was able to take chances to accept risk of failure. It was unlikely because it was searching for the unthinkable: water-ice on the moon... Figure 1-1: LCROSS Mission. The mission of the Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) was to investigate the possibility of water ice in craters on the Moon s poles. This is certainly an interesting scientific topic in itself, but I intend to focus on the compelling experience of managing the LCROSS Project in the context of this storied Agency. Perhaps most interesting are the implications this story has for managing any development effort, lunar or not, and working a balance to achieve success. NASA is by design a risk-taking agency within the US Government. It could be argued that NASA s purpose in the aerospace community is to take on the really big challenges that either the corporate world can t afford, are not yet profitable endeavors, or are just too risky for private corporations to entertain. However, expectations of the Agency have evolved. A combination of grim human tragedies and some very public cost and schedule overruns have challenged the public s and Congress s tolerance for risk-taking within the Agency. NASA, which is supposed to be in the business of taking risks to do bold, difficult things, has become less and less able to do so within its cost framework. Yet effectively replacing prudent risk management with attempts to "risk-eliminate" is completely unaffordable. So where does risk-taking fit within the Agency, or within private/corporate organizations for that matter? Where astronauts play there is clearly concern about risk. When an organization puts humans in harm s way, it is understandably going to take extra effort to assure nobody gets hurt. Doing so, of course, costs money - a lot of money to pay for labor and hardware which is attempting to assure nothing will go wrong. Sophisticated designs, with doubly- or triply-redundant systems, extensive testing to verify those systems, and numerous engineering test units built to learn and evolve a hardware design, all drive the cost and time required to implement. Human spaceflight is an expensive business because of the exceptional system complexity and levels of assurance required for human space travel. What about missions that do not involve human spaceflight? What about missions whose potential failure will not take a human life, whose costs are small and whose urgency and importance are limited by design? A portfolio consisting of this type of mission can be designed to be risk tolerant, not requiring large expenditures to guarantee against failure. With the money saved, the number of missions that can be executed within the portfolio grows, or the total cost of the portfolio can be reduced. The NASA LCROSS mission is a pathfinder example of a low-cost, quick turn-around mission which struck a balance on mission risk, while accomplishing big objectives, like defining how we understand the Moon.

Andrews, Daniel R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space Mission Concept Development Using Concept Maturity Levels

Over the past five years, pre-project formulation experts at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has developed and implemented a method for measuring and communicating the maturity of space mission concepts. Mission concept development teams use this method, and associated tools, prior to concepts entering their Formulation Phases (Phase A/B). The organizing structure is Concept Maturity Level (CML), which is a classification system for characterizing the various levels of a concept's maturity. The key strength of CMLs is the ability to evolve mission concepts guided by an incremental set of assessment needs. The CML definitions have been expanded into a matrix form to identify the breadth and depth of analysis needed for a concept to reach a specific level of maturity. This matrix enables improved assessment and communication by addressing the fundamental dimensions (e.g., science objectives, mission design, technical risk, project organization, cost, export compliance, etc.) associated with mission concept evolution. JPL's collaborative engineering, dedicated concept development, and proposal teams all use these and other CML-appropriate design tools to advance their mission concept designs. This paper focuses on mission concept's early Pre-Phase A represented by CMLs 1- 4. The scope was limited due to the fact that CMLs 5 and 6 are already well defined based on the requirements documented in specific Announcement of Opportunities (AO) and Concept Study Report (CSR) guidelines, respectively, for competitive missions; and by NASA's Procedural Requirements NPR 7120.5E document for Projects in their Formulation Phase.

Concept Maturity Levels (CMLs)↗

NASA NTRS2017

EVA Systems Technology Gaps and Priorities 2017

Performance of Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) has been and will continue to be a critical capability for human space flight. Human exploration missions beyond LEO will require EVA capability for either contingency or nominal activities to support mission objectives and reduce mission risk. EVA systems encompass a wide array of products across pressure suits, life support systems, EVA tools and unique spacecraft interface hardware (i.e. EVA Translation Paths and EVA Worksites). In a fiscally limited environment with evolving transportation and habitation options, it is paramount that the EVA community's strategic planning and architecture integration products be reviewed and vetted for traceability between the mission needs far into the future to the known technology and knowledge gaps to the current investments across EVA systems. To ascertain EVA technology and knowledge gaps many things need to be brought together, assessed and analyzed. This includes an understanding of the destination environments, various mission concept of operations, current state of the art of EVA systems, EVA operational lessons learned, and reference advanced capabilities. A combined assessment of these inputs should result in well-defined list of gaps. This list can then be prioritized depending on the mission need dates and time scale of the technology or knowledge gap closure plan. This paper will summarize the current state of EVA related technology and knowledge gaps derived from NASA's Exploration EVA Reference Architecture and Operations Concept products. By linking these products and articulating NASA's approach to strategic development for EVA across all credible destinations an EVA could be done in, the identification of these gaps is then used to illustrate the tactical and strategic planning for the EVA technology development portfolio. Finally, this paper illustrates the various "touch points" with other human exploration risk identification areas including human health and performance.

Johnson, Brian J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development of Structural Energy Storage for Aeronautics Applications

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified Multifunctional Structures for High Efficiency Lightweight Load-bearing Storage (M-SHELLS) as critical to development of hybrid gas-electric propulsion for commercial aeronautical transport in the N+3 timeframe. The established goals include reducing emissions by 80 and fuel consumption by 60 from todays state of the art. The advancement will enable technology for NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorates (ARMD) Strategic Thrust 3 to pioneer big leaps in efficiency and environmental performance for ultra-efficient commercial transports, as well as Strategic Thrust 4 to pioneer low-carbon propulsion technology in the transition to that scheme. The M-SHELLS concept addresses the hybrid gas-electric highest risk with its primary objective: to save structures energy storage system weight for future commercial hybrid electric propulsion aircraft by melding the load-carrying structure with energy storage in a single material. NASA's multifunctional approach also combines supercapacitor and battery chemistries in a synergistic energy storage arrangement in tandem with supporting good mechanical properties. The arrangement provides an advantageous combination of specific power, energy, and strength.

Santiago-Dejesus, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2017

Future Exploration Missions' Tasks Associated with the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) funds research efforts aimed at mitigating various human health and performance risks, including the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI). As such, within HRP, the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance (HFBP) Element tasked an evaluation of future HARI needs in order to scope and focus the HARI risk research plan. The objective was to provide a systematic understanding of the critical factors associated with effective HARI that will be necessary to achieve the future mission goals for near- and deep-space exploration. Future mission goals are specified by NASA Design Reference Missions (DRMs) that are pertinent to the HRP. The outcome of this evaluation is a set of NASA-relevant HARI tasks, factors, and interactions required for exploration-class missions.

space operations↗

NASA NTRS2019

Urban Area Unmanned Aerial Systems Sensor Capabilities for Ensuring Ground Hazards Safety

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) in urban areas can pose significant safety risks to dynamic ground objects (DGOs) such as people, pets, and bikes; especially for off-nominal emergency traverses and landings. This paper will examine a framework for evaluating the UAS safety benefits which can be achieved by classifying DGO hazards, modeling their behavior, and assigning collision costs. DGOs are assumed to be any ground objects which are either moving or capable of moving. Safety benefits will be assessed by analyzing metrics computed from UAS and DGO trajectories which take into account intent and uncertainties. This paper will establish the theoretical relationships mapping these trajectories and DGO classifications to safety levels. Sensor capabilities will be mapped to DGO trajectory uncertainties, so that safety can be directly estimated from the sensor specifications for a given UAS trajectory.

Bouyssounouse, Xavier↗