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At least 145 records · Page 8

Electrode Elastic Modulus as the Dominant Factor in the Capping Effect in Ferroelectric Hafnium Zirconium Oxide Thin Films

The discovery of ferroelectricity in hafnia based thin films has catalyzed significant research focused on understanding the ferroelectric property origins and means to increase stability of the ferroelectric phase. Prior studies have revealed that biaxial tensile stress via an electrode “capping effect” is a suspected ferroelectric phase stabilization mechanism. This effect is commonly reported to stem from a coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) incongruency between the hafnia and top electrode. Despite reported correlations between ferroelectric phase fraction and electrode CTE, the thick silicon substrate dominates the mechanics and CTE-related stresses, negating any dominant contribution from an electrode CTE mismatch toward the capping effect. In this work, these discrepancies are reconciled, and the origin of these differences deriving from electrode elastic modulus, not CTE, is demonstrated. Pt/M/TaN/Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 /TaN/Si devices, where M is platinum, TaN, iridium, tungsten, and ruthenium, were fabricated. Sin 2 (ψ)-based X-ray diffraction measurements of biaxial stress in the HZO layer reveal a strong correlation between biaxial stress, remanent polarization, and electrode elastic modulus. Conversely, a low correlation exists between the electrode CTE, HZO biaxial stress, and remanent polarization. A higher elastic modulus enhances the resistance to electrode elastic deformation, which intensifies the capping effect during crystallization, and culminates in the tandem restriction of out-of-plane hafnia volume expansion and preferential orientation of the polar c-axis normal to the plane. These behaviors concomitantly increase the ferroelectric phase stability and polarization magnitude. This work provides electrode material selection guidelines toward the development of high-performing ferroelectric hafnia into microelectronic devices, such as nonvolatile memories.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aldol Condensation and Esterification over Ti-Substituted *BEA Zeolite: Mechanisms and Effects of Pore Hydrophobicity

Aldol condensation and esterification reactions provide paths to upgrade ethanol and acetaldehyde to higher- value molecules useful as fuels or intermediates for the synthesis of polymers. Transition-metal-substituted BEA zeolites (M-BEA) catalyze these reactions; however, the mechanisms for these processes in M-BEA and the effects of incidental or purposefully included silanol groups are not reported. Here, we combine kinetic and spectroscopic measurements obtained during catalytic reactions of acetaldehyde (CH 3 CHO), ethanol (C 2 H 5 OH), and hydrogen (H 2 ) mixtures over a series of Ti-BEA catalysts that possess a known range of silanol group densities to examine the kinetic relevance of intervening steps and the impact of silanol groups on catalytic rates. Across all Ti-BEA, rates for aldol condensation and esterification increase with the pressure of CH 3 CHO; however, C 2 H 5 OH and H 2 O weakly inhibit the rates of these reactions. The substitution of CD 3 CDO for CH 3 CHO decreases aldol condensation rates slightly (~10%) but leads to greater esterification rates (2- to 5-fold). The kinetic isotope effects together with the measured dependence of rates on reactant pressures suggest that aldol condensation and esterification occur on unoccupied Ti sites and involve multiple kinetically relevant steps. CH 3 CHO deprotonates irreversibly, and the kinetically relevant nucleophilic attack of the enolate to CH 3 CHO* (i.e., adsorbed CH 3 CHO on Ti sites) leads to aldol products, while the nucleophilic attack of the enolate to C 2 H 5 OH* gives esters. Selectivities toward aldol condensation increase with the ratio of CH 3 CHO to C 2 H 5 OH pressure and with increases in the silanol density of the as-synthesized Ti-BEA. During catalysis, in situ infrared spectroscopy demonstrates that these silanol groups react with C 2 H 5 OH to form ethoxysilane groups (i.e., SiOC 2 H 5 ) that modify the polarity of the environment near Ti active sites. As initial silanol densities increase, steady-state turnover rates for aldol condensation and esterification increase by factors of 5 and 2, respectively. The changes in rates and selectivities among Ti-BEA catalysts likely reflect changes in excess free energies of transition states for enolization and nucleophilic attack of the enolate to adsorbed coreactants. The differences in excess stability report on the interactions among reactive intermediates at framework Ti atoms and the ethoxysilane and remaining silanol groups present. Furthermore, the in situ modification of these pore environments confers changes in the stability of reactive species in a manner that contradicts intuition when considering the initial state of the catalyst but can be reconciled after accounting for the formation of persistent alkoxy surface moieties in the pores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How a Formate Dehydrogenase Responds to Oxygen: Unexpected O 2 Insensitivity of an Enzyme Harboring Tungstopterin, Selenocysteine, and [4Fe–4S] Clusters

The reversible two-electron interconversion of formate and CO 2 is catalyzed by both nonmetallo- and metallo-formate dehydrogenases (FDHs). The latter group comprises molybdenum- or tungsten-containing enzymes with the metal coordinated by two equivalents of a pyranopterin cofactor, a cysteinyl or selenocysteinyl (Sec) ligand supplied by the polypeptide, and a catalytically essential terminal sulfido ligand. In addition, these biocatalysts incorporate one or more [4Fe–4S] clusters for facilitating long-distance electron transfer. However, an interesting dichotomy arises when attempting to understand how the metallo-FDHs react with O 2 . Whereas existing scholarship portrays these enzymes as being unable to perform in air due to extreme O 2 lability of their metal centers, studies dating as far back as the 1930s emphasize that some of these systems exhibit formate oxidase (FOX) activity, coupling formate oxidation to O 2 reduction. Therefore, to reconcile these conflicting views, we explored context-dependent functional linkages between metallo-FDHs and their cognate electron acceptors within the same organism vis-à-vis catalysis under atmospheric O 2 . Here, we report the discovery and characterization of an O 2 -insensitive FDH2 from the sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough (DvH) that ligates tungsten, Sec, and four [4Fe–4S] clusters. By advancing a robust expression platform for its recombinant production, we eliminate both the requirement of nitrate or azide during purification and reductive activation with thiols and/or formate prior to catalysis. Because the distinctive spectral signatures of formate-reduced DvH-FDH2 remain invariant under anaerobic and aerobic conditions, we benchmarked the enzyme activity in air, identifying CO 2 as the catalytic product. Full reaction progress curve analysis discloses a high catalytic efficiency when probed with a high-potential artificial electron acceptor. Furthermore, we show that DvH-FDH2 enables near-stoichiometric hydrogen peroxide production without superoxide release to achieve O 2 insensitivity. Notably, simultaneous electron transfer to cytochrome c and O 2 reveals that metal-based electron bifurcation is operational in this system. Taken together, our work proves the co-occurrence of redox bifurcated FDH and FOX activities within a metalloenzyme scaffold. These findings set the stage for uncovering previously unknown O 2 -insensitive flavin-based electron bifurcation mechanisms, as well as for developing authentic formate/air biofuel cells, engineering O 2 -stable FDHs and biohybrid metallocatalysts, and discerning formate bioenergetics of gut microbiota.

13C NMR↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

Coupling Redox Compensation and Interfacial Stabilization in Low-Ni O3-Type Sodium Layered Oxide Cathodes

Low-Ni O3-type sodium layered oxides are attractive cathodes for cost-robust sodium-ion batteries, yet high-voltage cycling is often limited by Fe-driven degradation, including cation migration/dissolution, irreversible slab gliding with large strain, particle cracking, and accelerated interfacial parasitic reactions. Here, in this study, we introduce a redox-interface codesign strategy using stoichiometric, charge-balanced Cu 2+ /Ti 4+ cosubstitution while preserving full Na stoichiometry, transitioning from NaNi 1/4 Fe 1/2 Mn 1/4 O 2 to NaNi 1/4 Fe 1/5 Mn 1/4 Cu 3/20 Ti 3/20 O 2 . With the cosubstitution, Cu and Ti suppress Fe migration and dissolution and facilitate sustained Fe oxidation at high voltage. Meanwhile, Cu is also shown to be redox-active, providing reversible cationic charge compensation that mitigates the capacity penalty typically associated with reducing Fe participation. Operando diffraction and spectroscopy collectively indicate a more reversible high-voltage structural evolution with suppressed Fe-related irreversibility. Particularly, spontaneous Ti enrichment at surface/grain-boundary regions stabilizes the cathode−electrolyte interface and promotes a more NaF-rich interphase signature. This work establishes a generalizable route to reconcile stability and capacity in low-Ni, Fe-containing O3 sodium layered oxide cathodes via compositionally encoded bulk-interfacial coupling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Intrinsic Ion Transport Properties of Block Copolymer Electrolytes

Knowledge of intrinsic properties is of central importance for materials design and assessing suitability for specific applications. Self-assembling block copolymer electrolytes (BCEs) are of great interest for applications in solid-state energy storage devices. A fundamental understanding of ion transport properties, however, is hindered by the difficulty in deconvoluting extrinsic factors, such as defects, from intrinsic factors, such as the presence of interfaces between the domains. Here, we quantify the intrinsic ion transport properties of a model BCE system consisting of poly(styrene-block-ethylene oxide) (SEO) and lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) salt using a generalizable strategy of depositing thin films on interdigitated electrodes and self-assembling fully connected parallel lamellar structures throughout the films. Comparison between conductivity in homopolymer poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)-LiTFSI electrolytes and the analogous conducting material in SEO over a range of salt concentrations (r, molar ratio of lithium ion to ethylene oxide repeat units) and temperatures reveals that between 20% and 50% of the PEO in SEO is inactive. Using mean-field theory calculations of the domain structure and monomer concentration profiles at domain interfaces-both of which vary substantially with salt concentration-the fraction of inactive PEO in the SEO, as derived from conductivity measurements, can be quantitatively reconciled with the fraction of PEO that is mixed with greater than a few volume percent of polystyrene. Despite the detrimental interfacial effects for ion transport in BCEs, the intrinsic conductivity of the SEO studied here (ca. 10 -3 S/cm at 90 degrees C, r = 0.085) is an order of magnitude higher than reported values from bulk samples of similar molecular weight SEO (ca. 10 -4 S/cm at 90 degrees C, r = 0.085). Finally, this work provides motivation and methods for pursuing improved BCE chemical design, interfacial engineering, and processing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanism of Tyrosine-Driven Deprotonation in Photosystem II Revealed by Multiscale Simulations

Photosystem II (PSII) drives light-induced water oxidation via stepwise redox transitions of its oxygen-evolving complex (OEC), a Mn 4 Ca cluster advancing through five intermediate S-states (S 0 –S 4 ). The S 2 → S 3 transition involves a redox event in which a Mn ion donates an electron to the redox-active tyrosine YZ, coupled to deprotonation of an OEC-bound water ligand─yet the underlying coupling mechanism remains unresolved. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) has revealed transient electron density shifts near the redox-active tyrosine Y Z , interpreted as sequential oxidation and reduction, with reduction initiating ∼1 μs after excitation and substantially progressed by 30 μs. However, this interpretation conflicts with kinetics from photothermal beam deflection (PBD), time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy (TR-XAS), and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), which place electron transfer at 190–400 μs and proton transfer around 30 μs. Here, we reconcile these discrepancies using quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We show that oxidation of P680 and Y Z breaks the symmetry of the nearby hydrogen bonds involving water molecule W4, displacing Y Z and replicating the TR-SFX features of Y Z and Q165 observed at 1 μs. This local perturbation propagates through a hydrogen-bond network, transmitting the electrostatic signal from Y Z to the E65-E312 dyad and triggering redox-coupled deprotonation via the Cl1 channel. By 30 μs, the hydrogen-bond symmetry is restored through deprotonation of W2 (or alternatively W1), reproducing the disappearance of TR-SFX density differences around Y Z and Q165 without requiring Y Z reduction. Our proposed mechanism also gives molecular insights into the O6* density, assigning it to water reorganization rather than a discrete Ca-bound hydroxide species. Here, our results reveal a detailed atomistic mechanism linking Y Z oxidation to long-range proton release and suggest a functional role for the nearby Cl – ion in proton transfer. More broadly, this study underscores the importance of hydrogen-bond dynamics in mediating redox-driven proton transport and demonstrates how integrative simulations can resolve mechanistic ambiguities.

Deprotonation↗

Distinct Kinetic Signatures of Photodesorption from Metal Nanoparticles

Visible photon fluxes can influence the rate and selectivity of heterogeneously catalyzed reactions on metal nanoparticle surfaces. Models describing the influence of photon fluxes have typically introduced photon flux dependent apparent thermal kinetic parameters (reaction orders, activation energies, binding energies, etc.). This has relied on empirical fitting of reaction rate data, making mechanistic interpretations of how photon fluxes influence elementary step rates challenging and inconsistent with fundamental descriptions of photochemistry on metal surfaces developed from surface science studies. Using the CO adsorption–desorption quasi-equilibrium reaction on Pt/Al 2 O 3 catalysts as a model system, we measured steady state adsorbed CO (CO*) coverages under isothermal and isobaric (1 mbar CO) conditions as a function of temperature (473–573 K) and of 440 nm photon flux ((0.1–5.2) × 10 3 # hv Pt site –1 s –1 ) using in situ IR spectroscopy. Steady state CO* coverage on Pt was photon flux dependent with increasing photon flux causing decreasing coverage, consistent with photons driving CO* desorption rates faster than thermal CO* desorption rates. However, photon flux dependent CO* coverages were essentially temperature independent, inconsistent with models that describe photon effects using perturbations to apparent thermal kinetic parameters. Instead, 120 steady state CO* coverages as a function of temperature and photon flux are quantitatively described by a kinetic model in which the overall desorption rate is a summation of independent thermal and photon induced CO* desorption rates. Site-resolved analysis reveals distinct kinetic parameters for photon driven desorption of CO* from well-coordinated, under-coordinated, and highly under-coordinated Pt sites, with temperature-dependent apparent quantum efficiencies (AQE) consistent with temperature dependence of vibrational quanta distribution of adsorbed CO. The rigorous kinetic rate laws for independent photon and thermal driven pathways allow for predictive modeling of the influence of photon fluxes on the rates of CO* desorption under catalytic conditions. Further, the analysis provides evidence that steady state continuous wave photon fluxes can drive desorption/adsorption reactions on metal surfaces out of thermal equilibrium, reconciling surface science observations of molecular photodesorption with applied catalysis. The work establishes a general kinetic framework to be considered for photon driven processes on metals, and defines catalyst, reaction, and photon flux characteristic design principles for breaking Sabatier limitations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-Voltage Sodium–Metal Batteries with Asymmetric Fluoroalkoxylated Organoborate Anion Chemistry

The high reactivity of sodium (Na) metal restricts its compatibility to ether-based electrolytes, while the poor oxidative stability of ethers precludes their coupling to high-voltage cathodes, fundamentally limiting the operating voltage and energy density of sodium–metal batteries (SMBs). We present here a coordination-asymmetry strategy to reconcile this thermodynamic mismatch by generating in situ an asymmetric fluoroalkoxylated organoborate anion, [FB(OCH(CF 3 ) 2 ) 3 ] − (BOF – ), via a Lewis acid–base adduct reaction in ether electrolyte. The asymmetric ligand architecture differentiates oxidative and fluorination pathways: oxidizable B–O moieties mediate controlled interfacial reconstruction, whereas the terminal B–F units supply fluorine for chemical passivation. This self-adaptive chemistry yields nanoscale, conformal, compositionally graded interphases: a boron-oxide/boron-oxycarbide-rich cathode-electrolyte interphase (CEI) that mitigates ether oxidation and a bilayered inorganic–organic solid–electrolyte interphase (SEI) that regulates Na deposition. The nanostructured interphases enable highly reversible Na plating/stripping with an average Coulombic efficiency (CE) of 99.98% and sustain stable 4.3 V operation of anode-free SMBs in oxidation-prone ether electrolytes. Furthermore, this work establishes asymmetric boron coordination as a molecular-level design principle for creating chemically adaptive interphases that overcome the redox asymmetry in energy-dense electrochemical systems.

Anions↗

Uniformity Is Key in Defining Structure–Function Relationships for Atomically Dispersed Metal Catalysts: The Case of Pt/CeO 2

Catalysts consisting of atomically dispersed Pt (Pt iso ) species on CeO 2 supports have received recent interest due to their potential for efficient metal utilization in catalytic convertors. However, discrepancies exist between the behavior (reducibility, interaction strength with adsorbates) of high surface area Pt iso /CeO 2 systems and of well-defined surface science and computational model systems, suggesting differences in Pt local coordination in the two classes of materials. Here, we reconcile these differences by demonstrating that high surface area Pt iso /CeO 2 synthesized at low Pt loadings (<0.1% weight) exhibit resistance to reduction and sintering up to 500 °C in 0.05 bar H 2 and minimal interactions with CO—properties previously seen only for model system studies. Alternatively, Pt loadings >0.1 weight % produce a distribution of sub-nanometer Pt structures, which are difficult to distinguish using common characterization techniques, and exhibit strong interactions with CO and weak resistance to sintering, even in 0.05 bar H 2 at 50 °C—properties previously seen for high surface area materials. This work demonstrates that low metal loadings can be used to selectively populate the most thermodynamically stable adsorption sites on high surface area supports with atomically dispersed metals. Further, the site uniformity afforded by this synthetic approach is critical for the development of relationships between atomic scale local coordination and functional properties. Comparisons to recent studies of Pt iso /TiO 2 suggest a general compromise between the stability of atomically dispersed metal catalysts and their ability to interact with and activate molecular species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Universal Model of Cation Effects in Electrocatalysis

Electrolyte cations are conventionally viewed as inert spectators in electrocatalysis. However, a wealth of observations show that catalytic rates are often highly sensitive to cation identity. Despite their prevalence, these cation effects have resisted a unified mechanistic explanation, with different physical phenomena implicated across reaction chemistries, catalyst compositions, and choice of solvent. In this perspective, we describe a general framework for understanding cation effects in electrocatalysis based on electrostatics. We argue that cations influence reaction rates by modifying the strength of the electric field present at the catalyst surface, which alters the energetics of adsorbed intermediates and transition states according to their dipole moments and polarizabilities. The magnitude of this field depends on how cations arrange at the electrode surface, controlled by their size, shape, solvation, and packing efficiency. Cations that can arrange more densely result in a steeper potential drop at the electrode surface and consequently a stronger electric field. Our model further identifies two criteria for observing cation effects: (1) the operating potential must be negative of the electrode’s potential of zero total charge, ensuring that cations accumulate at the interface, and (2) the energetics of the kinetically relevant elementary step must be field sensitive. This framework reconciles previously inconsistent trends, including why cation effects appear only for some catalysts, why reaction selectivity is sensitive to cation identity, and why activity can increase with cation size on certain metals but decrease on others. Supported by kinetic measurements, spectroscopy, and atomistic simulations, the model provides both conceptual value for building intuition about catalysis at charged interfaces and predictive value for anticipating trends for new reactions, catalysts, and electrolytes. We conclude by highlighting the importance of electric fields across electrochemical, thermochemical, and biological catalysis and propose that considering the electrostatic environment around active sites offers new opportunities for improving activity and selectivity.

cation effects↗

Advancing AI-Driven Analysis in X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy: Spectral Domain Mapping and Universal Models

In recent years, rapid progress has been made in developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods for X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) analysis. Compared to traditional XAS analysis methods, AI/ML approaches offer dramatic improvements in efficiency and help eliminate human bias. To advance this field, we advocate an AI-driven XAS analysis pipeline that features several interconnected key building blocks: benchmarks, workflows, databases, and AI/ML models. Specifically, we present two case studies for XAS ML. In the first study, we demonstrate the importance of reconciling the discrepancies between simulation and experiment using spectral domain mapping (SDM). Our ML model, which is trained solely on simulated spectra, predicts an incorrect oxidation state trend for Ti atoms in a combinatorial zinc titanate film. After transforming the experimental spectra into a simulation-like representation using SDM, the same model successfully recovers the correct oxidation state trend. In the second study, we explore the development of universal XAS ML models that are trained on the entire periodic table, which enables them to leverage common trends across elements. Looking ahead, we envision that an AI-driven pipeline can unlock the potential of real-time XAS analysis to accelerate scientific discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review

Abstract Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections.

Little, Christopher M.↗

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

In this work, we assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why Are There so Few Reports of High-Energy Electron Drift Resonances? Role of Radial Phase Space Density Gradients

Models of monochromatic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) ultralow frequency (ULF) wave interactions with high energy (greater than ~1 MeV) electrons predict drift resonant interactions that can cause rapid radial transport and acceleration. There are few reports of electron drift resonance at energies greater than ~1 MeV, in contrast to lower energies; moreover, all previous reports occur in the aftermath of interplanetary shocks. These two facts are difficult to reconcile with theory and numerical simulations predicting that greater than ~1 MeV drift resonances should occur more often and in a wider variety of driving conditions. In this study, we show that a combination of observational sampling biases and nominal radial phase space density gradients is one explanation for this discrepancy between theory and observations. In particular, we examine electron dynamics in two case studies with very similar satellite coverage, solar wind conditions, and Pc5 wave properties, yet with different radial phase space density profiles. Using global wave and particle observations, we show that the events have vastly different particle responses despite having similar wave properties. Placing these results in context with past studies, we further show here that nominal radial PSD gradients near geostationary orbit can mask the expected drift resonance particle response and explain (1) the small number of past greater than ~1 MeV drift resonance reports and (2) the restriction of these reports to interplanetary shock events. We argue that future observational studies characterizing radial transport via drift resonance should examine global particle dynamics, including observations of the radial phase space density profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of Oil and Gas Ethane and Methane Emissions in the Southcentral and Eastern United States Using Four Seasons of Continuous Aircraft Ethane Measurements

In the last decade, much work has been done to better understand methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry in the United States. Ethane (C 2 H 6 ), a gas that is co-emitted with thermogenic sources of CH 4 , is emitted in the US predominantly by the O&G sector. Here, in this study, we perform an inverse analysis on 200 h of atmospheric boundary layer C 2 H 6 measurements to estimate C 2 H 6 emissions from the US O&G sector. Measurements were collected from 2017 to 2019 as part of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) America aircraft campaign and encompass much of the central and eastern United States. We find that for the fall, winter, and spring campaigns, C 2 H 6 data consistently exceeds values that would be expected based on EPA O&G leak rate estimates by more than 50%. C 2 H 6 observations from the summer 2019 data set show significantly lower C 2 H 6 enhancements in the southcentral region that cannot be reconciled with data from the other three seasons, either due to complex meteorological conditions or a temporal shift in the emissions. Combining the fall, winter, and spring C 2 H 6 posterior emissions estimate to an inventory of O&G CH 4 emissions, we estimate that O&G CH 4 emissions are larger than EPA inventory values by 48%–76%. Uncertainties in the gas composition data limit the accuracy of using C 2 H 6 as a proxy for O&G CH 4 emissions. These limits could be resolved retroactively by increasing the availability of industry-collected gas composition data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗

Wildfire Smoke Demonstrates Significant and Predictable Black Carbon Light Absorption Enhancements

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is estimated to have the second largest anthropogenic radiative forcing in earth‐systems models (ESMs), but there is significant uncertainty in its impact due to complex mixing with organics. Laboratory‐generated particles show that co‐mixed non‐absorbing material enhances absorption by BC by a factor of 2–3.5 as predicted by optical models. However, weak or no enhancements are often reported for field studies. The cause of lower‐than‐expected absorption is not well understood and implies a lower radiative impact of BC compared to how many ESMs currently treat aerosols. By analyzing BC aerosol particle‐by‐particle we reconcile observed and expected absorption for ambient smoke plumes varying in geographic origin, fuel types, burn conditions, atmospheric age and transport. Although particle‐by‐particle tracking is computationally prohibitive for sophisticated ESMs we show that realistic BC absorption is reliably estimated by bulk properties of the plume providing a suitable parameterization to constrain black carbon radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗