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NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Status of fusion research and implications for D/He-3 systems

World wide programs in both magnetic confinement and inertial confinement fusion research have made steady progress towards the experimental demonstration of energy breakeven. However, after breakeven is achieved, considerable time and effort must still be expended to develop a usable power plant. The main program described is focused on Deuterium-Tritium devices. In magnetic confinement, three of the most promising high beta approaches with a reasonable experimental data base are the Field Reversed Configuration, the high field tokamak, and the dense Z-pinch. The situation is less clear in inertial confinement where the first step requires an experimental demonstration of D/T spark ignition. It appears that fusion research has reached a point in time where an R and D plan to develop a D/He-3 fusion reactor can be laid out with some confidence of success.

Miley, George H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere, The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics, Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate models simulate cloud processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMS) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and cloud systems, The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momenti,im budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (CCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (using 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km depth) in the vertical, The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations are performed over a 7 day time period. We will examine (1) the precipitation processes (i.e., condensation/evaporation) and their interaction with warm pool; (2) the heating and moisture budgets in the convective and stratiform regions; (3) the cloud (upward-downward) mass fluxes in convective and stratiform regions; (4) characteristics of clouds (such as cloud size, updraft intensity and cloud lifetime) and the comparison of clouds with Radar observations. Differences and similarities in organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems. Preliminary results indicated that there is major differences between 2D and 3D simulated stratiform rainfall amount and convective updraft and downdraft mass fluxes.

Tao, W.- K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Real-time data system: Incorporating new technology in mission critical environments

If the Space Station Freedom is to remain viable over its 30-year life span, it must be able to incorporate new information systems technologies. These technologies are necessary to enhance mission effectiveness and to enable new NASA missions, such as supporting the Lunar-Mars Initiative. Hi-definition television (HDTV), neural nets, model-based reasoning, advanced languages, CPU designs, and computer networking standards are areas which have been forecasted to make major strides in the next 30 years. A major challenge to NASA is to bring these technologies online without compromising mission safety. In past programs, NASA managers have been understandably reluctant to rely on new technologies for mission critical activities until they are proven in noncritical areas. NASA must develop strategies to allow inflight confidence building and migration of technologies into the trusted tool base. NASA has successfully met this challenge and developed a winning strategy in the Space Shuttle Mission Control Center. This facility, which is clearly among NASA's most critical, is based on 1970's mainframe architecture. Changes to the mainframe are very expensive due to the extensive testing required to prove that changes do not have unanticipated impact on critical processes. Systematic improvement efforts in this facility have been delayed due to this 'risk to change.' In the real-time data system (RTDS) we have introduced a network of engineering computer workstations which run in parallel to the mainframe system. These workstations are located next to flight controller operating positions in mission control and, in some cases, the display units are mounted in the traditional mainframe consoles. This system incorporates several major improvements over the mainframe consoles including automated fault detection by real-time expert systems and color graphic animated schematics of subsystems driven by real-time telemetry. The workstations have the capability of recording telemetry data and providing 'instant replay' for flight controllers. RTDS also provides unique graphics animated by real-time telemetry such as workstation emulation of the shuttle's flight instruments and displays of the remote manipulator system (RMS) position. These systems have been used successfully as prime operational tools since STS-26 and have supported seven shuttle missions.

Muratore, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reducing a Knowledge-Base Search Space When Data Are Missing

This software addresses the problem of how to efficiently execute a knowledge base in the presence of missing data. Computationally, this is an exponentially expensive operation that without heuristics generates a search space of 1 + 2n possible scenarios, where n is the number of rules in the knowledge base. Even for a knowledge base of the most modest size, say 16 rules, it would produce 65,537 possible scenarios. The purpose of this software is to reduce the complexity of this operation to a more manageable size. The problem that this system solves is to develop an automated approach that can reason in the presence of missing data. This is a meta-reasoning capability that repeatedly calls a diagnostic engine/model to provide prognoses and prognosis tracking. In the big picture, the scenario generator takes as its input the current state of a system, including probabilistic information from Data Forecasting. Using model-based reasoning techniques, it returns an ordered list of fault scenarios that could be generated from the current state, i.e., the plausible future failure modes of the system as it presently stands. The scenario generator models a Potential Fault Scenario (PFS) as a black box, the input of which is a set of states tagged with priorities and the output of which is one or more potential fault scenarios tagged by a confidence factor. The results from the system are used by a model-based diagnostician to predict the future health of the monitored system.

James, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2014

NuSTAR Detection of High-Energy X-Ray Emission and Rapid Variability from Sagittarius A(star) Flares

Sagittarius A(star) harbors the supermassive black hole that lies at the dynamical center of our Galaxy. Sagittarius A(star) spends most of its time in a low luminosity emission state but flares frequently in the infrared and X-ray, increasing up to a few hundred fold in brightness for up to a few hours at a time. The physical processes giving rise to the X-ray flares are uncertain. Here we report the detection with the NuSTAR observatory in Summer and Fall 2012 of four low to medium amplitude X-ray flares to energies up to 79 keV. For the first time, we clearly see that the power-law spectrum of Sagittarius A(star) X-ray flares extends to high energy, with no evidence for a cut off. Although the photon index of the absorbed power-law fits are in agreement with past observations, we find a difference between the photon index of two of the flares (significant at the 95% confidence level). The spectra of the two brightest flares (approx. 55 times quiescence in the 2- 10 keV band) are compared to simple physical models in an attempt to identify the main X-ray emission mechanism, but the data do not allow us to significantly discriminate between them. However, we confirm the previous finding that the parameters obtained with synchrotron models are, for the X-ray emission, physically more reasonable than those obtained with inverse-Compton models. One flare exhibits large and rapid (less than 100 s) variability, which, considering the total energy radiated, constrains the location of the flaring region to be within approx. 10 Schwarzschild radii of the black hole.

NuSTAR detection of high-energy X-ray emission and↗
NASA NTRS2012

Disentangling AGN and Star Formation in Soft X-Rays

We have explored the interplay of star formation and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity in soft X-rays (0.5-2 keV) in two samples of Seyfert 2 galaxies (Sy2s). Using a combination of low-resolution CCD spectra from Chandra and XMM-Newton, we modeled the soft emission of 34 Sy2s using power-law and thermal models. For the 11 sources with high signal-to-noise Chandra imaging of the diffuse host galaxy emission, we estimate the luminosity due to star formation by removing the AGN, fitting the residual emission. The AGN and star formation contributions to the soft X-ray luminosity (i.e., L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF)) for the remaining 24 Sy2s were estimated from the power-law and thermal luminosities derived from spectral fitting. These luminosities were scaled based on a template derived from XSINGS analysis of normal star-forming galaxies. To account for errors in the luminosities derived from spectral fitting and the spread in the scaling factor, we estimated L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF))from Monte Carlo simulations. These simulated luminosities agree with L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF) derived from Chandra imaging analysis within a 3sigma confidence level. Using the infrared [Ne ii]12.8 micron and [O iv]26 micron lines as a proxy of star formation and AGN activity, respectively, we independently disentangle the contributions of these two processes to the total soft X-ray emission. This decomposition generally agrees with L(sub x,SF) and L(sub x,AGN) at the 3 sigma level. In the absence of resolvable nuclear emission, our decomposition method provides a reasonable estimate of emission due to star formation in galaxies hosting type 2 AGNs.

Disentangling↗
NASA NTRS1994

The future of time and frequency dissemination

I will try to extrapolate the changes in the dissemination of time and frequency information that have taken place during the last 25 years to predict the future developments both in the methods of disseminating time and frequency and in the kinds of customers we will be asked to serve. Two important developments are likely to play pivotal roles in driving the evolution of dissemination. The first is the commercial availability of very high quality clocks -- devices whose performance may eventually rival that of the current generation of primary frequency standards. The widespread use of these devices may blur the traditional distinction between client and server, and may replace it with a more symmetrical interchange of data among peers. The second is the increasing demand for digital time and frequency information driven by the increasing sophistication of everything from traffic lights to electric power meters. The needs of these individual users may not tax the state of the art of primary frequency standards in principle, but their large numbers and wide geographical distribution present a technological challenge that is difficult to meet at a reasonable price using existing methods. Some of these problems may be solved (or at least addressed) using developments in communications and consumer electronics such as the increasing use of fiber-optic telephone circuits and the increasing bandwidth and sophistication of the cable network used to transmit television pictures. To be useful, these advances in hardware must stimulate parallel advances in software algorithms and methods. These advances are more difficult to predict with great confidence, but the developments of the last few years will be examined to provide some indications of the future.

Levine, Judah↗
NASA NTRS2009

From Verified Models to Verifiable Code

Declarative specifications of digital systems often contain parts that can be automatically translated into executable code. Automated code generation may reduce or eliminate the kinds of errors typically introduced through manual code writing. For this approach to be effective, the generated code should be reasonably efficient and, more importantly, verifiable. This paper presents a prototype code generator for the Prototype Verification System (PVS) that translates a subset of PVS functional specifications into an intermediate language and subsequently to multiple target programming languages. Several case studies are presented to illustrate the tool's functionality. The generated code can be analyzed by software verification tools such as verification condition generators, static analyzers, and software model-checkers to increase the confidence that the generated code is correct.

Lensink, Leonard↗
NASA NTRS1991

Structure and kinematics of the broad-line regions in active galaxies from IUE variability data

IUE archival data are used here to investigate the structure nad kinematics of the broad-line regions (BLRs) in nine AGN. It is found that the centroid of the line-continuum cross-correlation functions (CCFs) can be determined with reasonable reliability. The errors in BLR size estimates from CCFs for irregularly sampled light curves are fairly well understood. BLRs are found to have small luminosity-weighted radii, and lines of high ionization tend to be emitted closer to the central source than lines of low ionization, especially for low-luminosity objects. The motion of the gas is gravity-dominated with both pure inflow and pure outflow of high-velocity gas being excluded at a high confidence level for certain geometries.

Koratkar, Anuradha P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low-dose-rate dose to the bone marrow (mean = 2.5 Gy) was consistent with the measured ERR (0.62, 95% Cl =-0.2 to 1.9). Conclusions: An extended, biologically based model for leukemia that includes HSC initiation, inactivation, proliferation, and, uniquely for leukemia, long-range HSC migration predicts, %Kith reasonable accuracy, risks for radiationinduced leukemia associated with exposure to therapeutic doses of radiation.

Shuryak, Igor↗
NASA NTRS2018

Direct Probe of Dark Energy Interactions with a Solar System Laboratory: NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) - Phase 1 Final Report

In this NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) study, we embrace the challenge of direct detection of the galileon dark energy field in the Vainshtein model. We developed a mission concept to directly measure the galileon field using the solar system as a laboratory. The experiment scheme involves precise measurements of the trace of the total scalar force gradient tensor. A tetrahedral constellation off our spacecraft measures the "local" traces while orbiting about 1 AU (Astronomical Unit) away from the Sun and faraway from planets (Figure 1). The trace measurement is insensitive to the much stronger gravity field which satisfies the inverse square law and thus is traceless. Atomic test masses and atom interferometer measurement techniques are used as precise drag-free inertial references while laser ranging interferometers are employed to connect among atom interferometer pairs in spacecraft for the differential gradient force measurements. We conclude that such a mission is scientifically and technologically feasible. We show that a mission of 3-year measurement time would be able to provide high confidence statements (over 3 standard deviations) about the existence and strength of the cubic galileon field of the Sun. In addition, such a mission would also provide rich and diverse scientific data for testing any gravitational theory in general beyond the Newtonian gravity, hunting for ultra-light fields of dark matter, and detecting gravitational waves in the mid-frequency band between those of LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory) and LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). For these reasons, we will term the mission concept Gravity Observation and Dark energy Detection Explorer in the Solar System (GODDESS).

Dark Energy↗
NASA NTRS1992

Intelligent fault management for the Space Station active thermal control system

The Thermal Advanced Automation Project (TAAP) approach and architecture is described for automating the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Active Thermal Control System (ATCS). The baseline functionally and advanced automation techniques for Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) will be compared and contrasted. Advanced automation techniques such as rule-based systems and model-based reasoning should be utilized to efficiently control, monitor, and diagnose this extremely complex physical system. TAAP is developing advanced FDIR software for use on the SSF thermal control system. The goal of TAAP is to join Knowledge-Based System (KBS) technology, using a combination of rules and model-based reasoning, with conventional monitoring and control software in order to maximize autonomy of the ATCS. TAAP's predecessor was NASA's Thermal Expert System (TEXSYS) project which was the first large real-time expert system to use both extensive rules and model-based reasoning to control and perform FDIR on a large, complex physical system. TEXSYS showed that a method is needed for safely and inexpensively testing all possible faults of the ATCS, particularly those potentially damaging to the hardware, in order to develop a fully capable FDIR system. TAAP therefore includes the development of a high-fidelity simulation of the thermal control system. The simulation provides realistic, dynamic ATCS behavior and fault insertion capability for software testing without hardware related risks or expense. In addition, thermal engineers will gain greater confidence in the KBS FDIR software than was possible prior to this kind of simulation testing. The TAAP KBS will initially be a ground-based extension of the baseline ATCS monitoring and control software and could be migrated on-board as additional computation resources are made available.

Hill, Tim↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Geostatistical Data Fusion Technique for Merging Remote Sensing and Ground-Based Observations of Aerosol Optical Thickness

Particles in the atmosphere reflect incoming sunlight, tending to cool the Earth below. Some particles, such as soot, also absorb sunlight, which tens to warm the ambient atmosphere. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a measure of the amount of particulate matter in the atmosphere, and is a key input to computer models that simulate and predict Earth's changing climate. The global AOD products from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), both of which fly on the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra satellite, provide complementary views of the particles in the atmosphere. Whereas MODIS offers global coverage about four times as frequent as MISR, the multi-angle data makes it possible to separate the surface and atmospheric contributions to the observed top-of-atmosphere radiances, and also to more effectively discriminate particle type. Surface-based AERONET sun photometers retrieve AOD with smaller uncertainties than the satellite instruments, but only at a few fixed locations. So there are clear reasons to combine these data sets in a way that takes advantage of their respective strengths. This paper represents an effort at combining MISR, MODIS and AERONET AOD products over the continental US, using a common spatial statistical technique called kriging. The technique uses the correlation between the satellite data and the "ground-truth" sun photometer observations to assign uncertainty to the satellite data on a region-by-region basis. The larger fraction of the sun photometer variance that is duplicated by the satellite data, the higher the confidence assigned to the satellite data in that region. In the Western and Central US, MISR AOD correlation with AERONET are significantly higher than those with MODIS, likely due to bright surfaces in these regions, which pose greater challenges for the single-view MODIS retrievals. In the east, MODIS correlations are higher, due to more frequent sampling of the varying AOD. These results demonstrate how the MISR and MODIS aerosol products are complementary. The underlying technique also provides one method for combining these products in such a way that takes advantage of the strengths of each, in the places and times when they are maximal, and in addition, yields an estimate of the associated uncertainties in space and time.

Chatterjee, Abhishek↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proper Motions of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies from Hubble Space Telescope Imaging: Measurement for URSA Minor - 3

This article presents a measurement of the proper motion of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy determined from images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope in two distinct fields. Each field contains a quasi-stellar object that serves as the "reference point". Integrating the motion of Ursa Minor in a realistic potential for the Milky Way produces orbital elements. The perigalacticon and apogalacticon are 40 (10, 76) and 89 (78, 160) kpc, respectively, where the values in the parentheses represent the 95% confidence intervals derived from Monte Carlo experiments. The eccentricity of the orbit is 0.39 (0.09, 0.79), and the orbital period is 1.5 (1.1, 2.7) Gyr. The orbit is retrograde and inclined by 124 degrees (94 deg, 36 deg ) to the Galactic plane. Ursa Minor is not a likely member of a proposed stream of galaxies on similar orbits around the Milky Way, nor is the plane of its orbit coincident with a recently proposed planar alignment of galaxies around the Milky Way. Comparing the orbits of Ursa Minor and Carina shows no reason for the different star formation histories of these two galaxies. Ursa Minor must contain dark matter to have a high probability of having survived disruption by the Galactic tidal force until the present.

FLUX RESIDUALS↗
NASA NTRS1993

(abstract) Scientific Objectivity and the Impact Hazard: Responsible Reporting Versus Crying Wolf

f comets and asteroids on the Earth pose a real hazard, comparable in probability to other hazards which society deems worthy of concern. As such, it is prudent and reasonable to investigate and institute means for evaluation of the exact nature of the hazard and possible means of mitigating the effects of impacts, primarily by preventing their occurrence through orbital deflection. Decisions as to the hazard and possible detection and deflection programs must be made through a rational public discussion of the issues, provided with the best possible information. Unfortunately, some individuals have tended to overstate the problem either in terms of the probability of impact or the expected effects of impacts. The net result of such actions is often to undermine public confidence in those attempting to promote an informal discussion of the impact hazard. This is particularily true in a time of declining budgets for both science and defense, and increased competition for federal R&D dollars. It is thus important that the community find means of promoting responsible actions by the members of the community, and for dealing with public release of information, within the bounds of academic and individual freedom. The purpose of this abstract is to promote a discussion of these issues within the community and to invite additional suggestions for methods to improve the providing of accurate information to the public, the media, and most importantly, to decision makers.

comets asteroids impacts dangers effects scientifi↗