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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

Randall, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Relationship between the longwave cloud radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere

An analysis is presented which suggests a technique that may be able to circumvent the problem of mapping the global longwave surface radiation budget from space in the presence of clouds. A theoretical framework is given that avoids the explicit computation of cloud fraction and the location of cloud base. It is found that in regions where a particular cloud regime exists preferentially, a relationship between the mean long range cloud radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface can be shown to exist. Results from a general circulation model suggest that this relationship for monthly means is coherent over fairly large geographical areas. For example, in tropical convective areas, the longwave CRF at the top is very large, but at the surface it is quite small because of the high opacity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere. It is also found that, in areas of stratus over cool ocean surfaces, the longwave CRF at the top is very small but at the surface it is quite substantial.

HARSHVARDHAN↗
NASA NTRS2019

Arctic Cloud Radiative Forcing in Contemporary Atmospheric Reanalyses

Arctic clouds play an important role in modifying the surface energy balance. In the Arctic, clouds are thought to influence the underlying sea ice cover through changing downwelling longwave radiative fluxes to the surface and through the selective reflection of the shortwave flux in summer. Atmospheric reanalyses are generally thought to have a poor representation of cloud processes at high latitudes, although the representation of trends over the perennial Arctic sea ice pack is less well known. Here, atmospheric energy fluxes are examined at the top of the atmosphere from contemporary reanalyses in comparison to satellite measurements from the CERES-EBAF version 4.1 product. The principal reanalyses examined are the NASA MERRA-2, the ECMWF ERA5 and ERA-Interim, the JRA-55, and the regional Arctic System Reanalysis version 2. In agreement with previous observation-based studies, changes with time in the shortwave cloud radiative forcing in reanalyses are found to be negligible despite strong trends in the absorbed shortwave. Over the full satellite period, there is large disagreement in the seasonality of longwave cloud forcing trends. These trends are reduced during the CERES-EBAF observing period (2003-present). An examination of these trends with respect to sea ice cover changes in each of the reanalyses is conducted.

Cullather, Richard I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling of 2008 Kasatochi Volcanic Sulfate Direct Radiative Forcing: Assimilation of OMI SO2 Plume Height Data and Comparison with MODIS and CALIOP Observations

Volcanic SO2 column amount and injection height retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) with the Extended Iterative Spectral Fitting (EISF) technique are used to initialize a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate the atmospheric transport and lifecycle of volcanic SO2 and sulfate aerosol from the 2008 Kasatochi eruption, and to subsequently estimate the direct shortwave, top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing of the volcanic sulfate aerosol. Analysis shows that the integrated use of OMI SO2 plume height in GEOS-Chem yields: (a) good agreement of the temporal evolution of 3-D volcanic sulfate distributions between model simulations and satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP), and (b) an e-folding time for volcanic SO2 that is consistent with OMI measurements, reflecting SO2 oxidation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is reliably represented in the model. However, a consistent (approx. 25 %) low bias is found in the GEOS-Chem simulated SO2 burden, and is likely due to a high (approx.20 %) bias of cloud liquid water amount (as compared to the MODIS cloud product) and the resultant stronger SO2 oxidation in the GEOS meteorological data during the first week after eruption when part of SO2 underwent aqueous-phase oxidation in clouds. Radiative transfer calculations show that the forcing by Kasatochi volcanic sulfate aerosol becomes negligible 6 months after the eruption, but its global average over the first month is -1.3W/sq m, with the majority of the forcing-influenced region located north of 20degN, and with daily peak values up to -2W/sq m on days 16-17. Sensitivity experiments show that every 2 km decrease of SO2 injection height in the GEOS-Chem simulations will result in a approx.25% decrease in volcanic sulfate forcing; similar sensitivity but opposite sign also holds for a 0.03 m increase of geometric radius of the volcanic aerosol particles. Both sensitivities highlight the need to characterize the SO2 plume height and aerosol particle size from space. While more research efforts are warranted, this study is among the first to assimilate both satellite-based SO2 plume height and amount into a chemical transport model for an improved simulation of volcanic SO2 and sulfate transport.

Wang, J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m -2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

New Satellite Measurements of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing from MODIS, MISR, and POLDER

New set of satellites, MODIS and MISR launched on EOS-Terra and POLDER launched on ADEOS-1, and scheduled for ADEOS-II and PARASOL in orbit with EOS-AQUA, open exciting opportunities to measure aerosol and their radiative forcing of climate. Each of these instruments has a different approach to invert remote sensing data to derive the aerosol properties. MODIS is using wide spectral range 0.47-2.1 micron. MISR is using narrower spectral range (0.44 to 0.87 micron) but observing the same spot from 9 different angles along the satellite track. POLDER using similar wavelengths, uses two dimensional view with a wide angle optics and adds polarization to the inversion process. Among these instruments, we expect to measure the global distribution of aerosol, to distinguish small pollution particles from large particles from deserts and ocean spray. We shall try to measure the aerosol absorption of solar radiation, and their refractive index that indicates the effect of liquid water on the aerosol size and interaction with sunlight. The radiation field measured by these instruments in variety of wavelengths and angles, is also used to derive the effect of the aerosol on reflection of sunlight spectral fluxes to space. When combined with flux measurements at the ground, it gives a complete characterization of the effect of aerosol on solar illumination, heating in the atmosphere and reflection to space.

Kaufman, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Calculations of Aerosol Radiative Forcing in the SAFARI Region from MODIS Data

SAFARI 2000 provided the opportunity to validate MODIS aerosol retrievals and to correct any assumptions in the retrieval process. By comparing MODIS retrievals with ground-based sunphotometer data, we quantified the degree to which the MODIS algorithm underestimated the aerosol optical thickness. This discrepancy was attributed to underestimating the degree of light absorption by the southern African smoke aerosol. Correcting for this underestimation of absorption, produces more realistic aerosol retrievals that allow various applications of the MODIS aerosol products. One such application is the calculation of the aerosol radiative forcing at the top and bottom of the atmosphere. The combination of MODIS accuracy, coverage, resolution and the ability to separate fine and coarse mode make this calculation substantially advanced over previous attempts with other satellites. We focus on the oceans adjacent to southern Africa and use a solar radiative transfer model to perform the flux calculations. The forcing at the top of atmosphere is calculated to be 10 W/sq m, while the forcing at the surface is -26 W/sq m. These results resemble those calculated from INDOEX data, and are most sensitive to assumptions of aerosol absorption, the same parameter that initially interfered with our retrievals.

Remer, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Relationship between the longwave cloud radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere

In order to achieve global coverage, any surface radiation climatology has to be based on satellite observations. In the last decade several schemes have been devised to obtain the surface solar insolation from top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation. More recently, attempts have been made to infer the components of longwave radiation at the surface from satellite sounder data using a radiative transfer model. In addition to the radiative transfer scheme, these methods require assumptions about the effective emitting temperature of cloud tops and bases. Modeling studies have shown that although there are strong correlations between the solar upwelling radiative flux and surface flux, this is not true of the longwave. However, if the clear sky component is considered separately such that the cloud longwave forcing at the top and at the surface are compared, a slightly different picture emerges. During the FIRE Cirrus IFO, surface radiation measurements were made at several sites and coincident satellite overpass data was also collected. It may be possible to extract the longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top and surface from these data. If relationships are verifiable by observations, this information can be useful for the extraction of the surface longwave radiation from satellite data. The radiative transfer schemes used to convert upwelling spectral radiances into a downwelling longwave radiation can provide the clear sky component. The cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere can then modify the surface fluxes according to relationships shown. It should be noted that this procedure may be considered only for temporal averages and not for instantaneous deductions of surface fluxes. This would be most useful in compiling monthly mean regional climatologies of the surface longwave fluxes.

HARSHVARDHAN↗
NASA NTRS1992

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗
NASA NTRS2023

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗
NASA NTRS2014

Column Aerosol Optical Properties and Aerosol Radiative Forcing During a Serious Haze-Fog Month over North China Plain in 2013 Based on Ground-Based Sunphotometer Measurements

In January 2013, North China Plain experienced several serious haze events. Cimel sunphotometer measurements at seven sites over rural, suburban and urban regions of North China Plain from 1 to 30 January 2013 were used to further our understanding of spatial-temporal variation of aerosol optical parameters and aerosol radiative forcing (ARF). It was found that Aerosol Optical Depth at 500 nm (AOD500nm) during non-pollution periods at all stations was lower than 0.30 and increased significantly to greater than 1.00 as pollution events developed. The Angstrom exponent (Alpha) was larger than 0.80 for all stations most of the time. AOD500nm averages increased from north to south during both polluted and non-polluted periods on the three urban sites in Beijing. The fine mode AOD during pollution periods is about a factor of 2.5 times larger than that during the non-pollution period at urban sites but a factor of 5.0 at suburban and rural sites. The fine mode fraction of AOD675nm was higher than 80% for all sites during January 2013. The absorption AOD675nm at rural sites was only about 0.01 during pollution periods, while 0.03-0.07 and 0.01-0.03 during pollution and non-pollution periods at other sites, respectively. Single scattering albedo varied between 0.87 and 0.95 during January 2013 over North China Plain. The size distribution showed an obvious tri-peak pattern during the most serious period. The fine mode effective radius in the pollution period was about 0.01-0.08 microns larger than during nonpollution periods, while the coarse mode radius in pollution periods was about 0.06-0.38 microns less than that during nonpollution periods. The total, fine and coarse mode particle volumes varied by about 0.06-0.34 cu microns, 0.03-0.23 cu microns, and 0.03-0.10 cu microns, respectively, throughout January 2013. During the most intense period (1-16 January), ARF at the surface exceeded −50W/sq m, −180W/sq m, and −200W/sq m at rural, suburban, and urban sites, respectively. The ARF readings at the top of the atmosphere were approximately −30W/sq m in rural and −40-60W/sq m in urban areas.

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2020

Sensitivities in Satellite Lidar‐Derived Estimates of Daytime Top‐of‐the‐Atmosphere Optically Thin Cirrus Cloud Radiative Forcing: A Case Study

An optically thin cirrus cloud was profiled concurrently with nadir‐pointing 1,064 nm lidars on 11 August 2017 over eastern Texas, including NASA's airborne Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) and space‐borne Clouds and Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. Despite resolving fewer (37% vs. 94%) and denser (i.e., more emissive) clouds (average cloud optical depth of 0.10 vs. 0.03, respectively), CATS data render a near‐equal estimate of the top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) versus CPL. The sample‐relative TOA net CRF solved from CPL is 1.39 W/m2, which becomes 1.32 W/m2 after normalizing by occurrence frequency. Since CATS overestimates extinction for this case, the sample‐relative TOA net forcing is ~3.0 W/m2 larger than CPL, with the absolute value reduced to within 0.3 W/m2 of CPL due its underestimation of cloud occurrence. We discuss the ramifications of thin cirrus cloud detectability from satellite and its impact on attempts at TOA CRF closure.

Erica K. Dolinar↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing - How Satellites Fit In

The aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System's MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. Although these products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type identification and evolution, to aerosol injection height and aerosol transport model validation, uncertainties still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on global-scale direct aerosol radiative forcing. Some further refinement of the current aerosol products is possible, but a major advance in this area seems to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite and suborbital data with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental advances we can expect, with the current aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration of data from multiple sources and models.

Kahn, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radiative Forcing Over Ocean by Ship Wakes

Changes in surface albedo represent one of the main forcing agents that can counteract, to some extent, the positive forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Here, we report on enhanced ocean reflectance from ship wakes over the Pacific Ocean near the California coast, where we determined, based on airborne radiation measurements that ship wakes can increase reflected sunlight by more than 100%. We assessed the importance of this increase to climate forcing, where we estimated the global radiative forcing of ship wakes to be -0.00014 plus or minus 53% Watts per square meter assuming a global distribution of 32331 ships of size of greater than or equal to 100000 gross tonnage. The forcing is smaller than the forcing of aircraft contrails (-0.007 to +0.02 Watts per square meter), but considering that the global shipping fleet has rapidly grown in the last five decades and this trend is likely to continue because of the need of more inter-continental transportation as a result of economic globalization, we argue that the radiative forcing of wakes is expected to be increasingly important especially in harbors and coastal regions.

Gatebe, Charles K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Electron Tomography of Nanoparticle Clusters: Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes and Radiative Forcing of Soot

Nanoparticles are ubiquitous in nature. Their large surface areas and consequent chemical reactivity typically result in their aggregation into clusters. Their chemical and physical properties depend on cluster shapes, which are commonly complex and unknown. This is the first application of electron tomography with a transmission electron microscope to quantitatively determine the three-dimensional (3D) shapes, volumes, and surface areas of nanoparticle clusters. We use soot (black carbon, BC) nanoparticles as an example because it is a major contributor to environmental degradation and global climate change. To the extent that our samples are representative, we find that quantitative measurements of soot surface areas and volumes derived from electron tomograms differ from geometrically derived values by, respectively, almost one and two orders of magnitude. Global sensitivity studies suggest that the global burden and direct radiative forcing of fractal BC are only about 60% of the value if it is assumed that BC has a spherical shape.

vanPoppel, Laura H.↗