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At least 145 records · Page 8

A State-Space Approach to Optimal Level-Crossing Prediction for Linear Gaussian Processes

In many complex engineered systems, the ability to give an alarm prior to impending critical events is of great importance. These critical events may have varying degrees of severity, and in fact they may occur during normal system operation. In this article, we investigate approximations to theoretically optimal methods of designing alarm systems for the prediction of level-crossings by a zero-mean stationary linear dynamic system driven by Gaussian noise. An optimal alarm system is designed to elicit the fewest false alarms for a fixed detection probability. This work introduces the use of Kalman filtering in tandem with the optimal level-crossing problem. It is shown that there is a negligible loss in overall accuracy when using approximations to the theoretically optimal predictor, at the advantage of greatly reduced computational complexity. I

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗

An High Resolution Near-Earth Objects Population Enabling Next-Generation Search Strategies

Over the past decade, the dedicated search for kilometer-size near-Earth objects (NEOs), potentially hazardous objects (PHOs), and potential Earth impactors has led to a boost in the rate of discoveries of these objects. The catalog of known NEOs is the fundamental ingredient used to develop a model for the NEOs population, either by assessing and correcting for the observational bias (Jedicke et al., 2002), or by evaluating the migration rates from the NEOs source regions (Bottke et al., 2002). The modeled NEOs population is a necessary tool used to track the progress in the search of large NEOs (Jedicke et al., 2003) and to try to predict the distribution of the ones still undiscovered, as well as to study the sky distribution of potential Earth impactors (Chesley & Spahr, 2004). We present a method to model the NEOs population in all six orbital elements, on a finely grained grid, allowing us the design and test of targeted and optimized search strategies. This method relies on the observational data routinely reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and by other active NEO surveys over the past decade, to determine on a nightly basis the efficiency in detecting moving objects as a function of observable quantities including apparent magnitude, rate of motion, airmass, and galactic latitude. The cumulative detection probability is then be computed for objects within a small range in orbital elements and absolute magnitude, and the comparison with the number of know NEOs within the same range allows us to model the population. When propagated to the present epoch and projected on the sky plane, this provides the distribution of the missing large NEOs, PHOs, and potential impactors.

Tricaico, Pasquale↗

Rapid and Reliable Damage Proxy Map from InSAR Coherence

Future radar satellites will visit SoCal within a day after a disaster event. Data acquisition latency in 2015-2020 is 8 to approx. 15 hours. Data transfer latency that often involves human/agency intervention far exceeds the data acquisition latency. Need interagency cooperation to establish automatic pipeline for data transfer. The algorithm is tested with ALOS PALSAR data of Pasadena, California. Quantitative quality assessment is being pursued: Meeting with Pasadena City Hall computer engineers for a complete list of demolition/construction project 1. Estimate the probability of detection and probability of false alarm 2. Estimate the optimal threshold value.

InSAR↗

Sensor Data Quality and Angular Rate Down-Selection Algorithms on SLS EM-1

The NASA Space Launch System Block 1 launch vehicle is equipped with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) and multiple Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGA) that are used in the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) algorithms. The INS provides the inertial position, velocity, and attitude of the vehicle along with both angular rate and specific force measurements. Additionally, multiple sets of co-located rate gyros supply angular rate data. The collection of angular rate data, taken along the launch vehicle, is used to separate out vehicle motion from flexible body dynamics. Since the system architecture uses redundant sensors, the capability was developed to evaluate the health (or validity) of the independent measurements. A suite of Sensor Data Quality (SDQ) algorithms is responsible for assessing the angular rate data from the redundant sensors. When failures are detected, SDQ will take the appropriate action and disqualify or remove faulted sensors from forward processing. Additionally, the SDQ algorithms contain logic for down-selecting the angular rate data used by the GNC software from the set of healthy measurements. This paper explores the trades and analyses that were performed in selecting a set of robust fault-detection algorithms included in the GN&C flight software. These trades included both an assessment of hardware-provided health and status data as well as an evaluation of different algorithms based on time-to-detection, type of failures detected, and probability of detecting false positives. We then provide an overview of the algorithms used for both fault-detection and measurement down selection. We next discuss the role of trajectory design, flexible-body models, and vehicle response to off-nominal conditions in setting the detection thresholds. Lastly, we present lessons learned from software integration and hardware-in-the-loop testing.

Park, Thomas↗

Kojima-1Lb Is a Mildly Cold Neptune around the Brightest Microlensing Host Star

We report the analysis of additional multiband photometry and spectroscopy and new adaptive optics (AO) imaging of the nearby planetary microlensing event TCP J05074264+2447555 (Kojima-1), which was discovered toward the Galactic anticenter in 2017 (Nucita et al.). We confirm the planetary nature of the light-curve anomaly around the peak while finding no additional planetary feature in this event. We also confirm the presence of apparent blending flux and the absence of significant parallax signal reported in the literature. The AO image reveals no contaminating sources, making it most likely that the blending flux comes from the lens star. The measured multiband lens flux, combined with a constraint from the microlensing model, allows us to narrow down the previously unresolved mass and distance of the lens system. We find that the primary lens is a dwarf on the K/M boundary (0.581 ± 0.033M(ʘ)) located at 505±47 pc, and the companion (Kojima-1Lb) is a Neptune-mass planet (20.0 ± 2.0M(⊕)) with a semimajor axis of 1.08(+0.62, -0.18) au. This orbit is a few times smaller than those of typical microlensing planets and is comparable to the snow-line location at young ages. We calculate that the a priori detection probability of Kojima-1Lb is only ∼35%, which may imply that Neptunes are common around the snow line, as recently suggested by the transit and radial velocity techniques. The host star is the brightest among the microlensing planetary systems (K(s) = 13.7), offering a great opportunity to spectroscopically characterize this system, even with current facilities.

A. Fukui↗

All-Sky Search for Short Gravitational-Wave Bursts in the Second Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo Run

We present the results of a search for short-duration gravitational-wave transients in the data from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We search for gravitational-wave transients with a duration of milliseconds to approximately one second in the 32–4096 Hz frequency band with minimal assumptions about the signal properties, thus targeting a wide variety of sources. We also perform a matched-filter search for gravitational-wave transients from cosmic string cusps for which the waveform is well modeled. The unmodeled search detected gravitational waves from several binary black hole mergers which have been identified by previous analyses. No other significant events have been found by either the unmodeled search or the cosmic string search. We thus present the search sensitivities for a variety of signal waveforms and report upper limits on the source rate density as a function of the characteristic frequency of the signal. These upper limits are a factor of 3 lower than the first observing run, with a 50% detection probability for gravitational-wave emissions with energies of ∼10−9 𝑀⊙⁢𝑐2 at 153 Hz. For the search dedicated to cosmic string cusps we consider several loop distribution models, and present updated constraints from the same search done in the first observing run.

B P Abbott↗

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗

Modeling the X-Ray Process, and X-Ray Flaw Size Parameter for POD Studies

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method reliability can be determined by a statistical flaw detection study called probability of detection (POD) study. In many instances the NDE flaw detectability is given as a flaw size such as crack length. The flaw is either a crack or behaving like a crack in terms of affecting the structural integrity of the material. An alternate approach is to use a more complex flaw size parameter. The X-ray flaw size parameter, given here, takes into account many setup and geometric factors. The flaw size parameter relates to X-ray image contrast and is intended to have a monotonic correlation with the POD. Some factors such as set-up parameters including X-ray energy, exposure, detector sensitivity, and material type that are not accounted for in the flaw size parameter may be accounted for in the technique calibration and controlled to meet certain quality requirements. The proposed flaw size parameter and the computer application described here give an alternate approach to conduct the POD studies. Results of the POD study can be applied to reliably detect small flaws through better assessment of effect of interaction between various geometric parameters on the flaw detectability. Moreover, a contrast simulation algorithm for a simple part-source-detector geometry using calibration data is also provided for the POD estimation.

Khoshti, Ajay↗

Modeling the X-ray Process, and X-ray Flaw Size Parameter for POD Studies

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method reliability can be determined by a statistical flaw detection study called probability of detection (POD) study. In many instances, the NDE flaw detectability is given as a flaw size such as crack length. The flaw is either a crack or behaving like a crack in terms of affecting the structural integrity of the material. An alternate approach is to use a more complex flaw size parameter. The X-ray flaw size parameter, given here, takes into account many setup and geometric factors. The flaw size parameter relates to X-ray image contrast and is intended to have a monotonic correlation with the POD. Some factors such as set-up parameters, including X-ray energy, exposure, detector sensitivity, and material type that are not accounted for in the flaw size parameter may be accounted for in the technique calibration and controlled to meet certain quality requirements. The proposed flaw size parameter and the computer application described here give an alternate approach to conduct the POD studies. Results of the POD study can be applied to reliably detect small flaws through better assessment of effect of interaction between various geometric parameters on the flaw detectability. Moreover, a contrast simulation algorithm for a simple part-source-detector geometry using calibration data is also provided for the POD estimation.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

Flexible Data and Frame Synchronization Structure for the LunaNet PNT Signal

A LunaNet Lunar Augmented Navigation Service (LANS) is being developed to enable a position, navigation, and timing service for future Lunar operations [1]. The signal includes two components. An in-phase data channel signal is spread by a 1.023 MCPS ranging code that provides a high-rate data message at 250 bps and is encoded by a strong Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) code. A pilot channel with a 5.115 MCPS spreading code is also provided. The pilot code is configured with a secondary (overlay) code that does not currently provide absolute time or frame Synchronization as is the case for L1C [2] [3]. This work shows the advantage of implementing an overlay structure that provides absolute time for the LunaNet LANS signal structure known as the Augmented Forward Signal (AFS). The LunaNet AFS structure was developed to service two classes of user receivers. The first class is a low-complexity user receiver that only receives the 1.023 MCPS signal and does not use the 5.115 MCPS pilot channel. For this class of user, a data frame Sync word is needed. The second class of receiver is a high-end receiver that can processes both data and pilot channels to take advantage of the higher chip rate pilot channel for enhanced robustness and improved accuracy. In the current draft LunaNet LANS AFS design, these users must employ the frame Sync word in the data channel and obtain absolute time after decoding the AFS navigation message [2]. The signal structure would greatly benefit from the addition of a pilot overlay structure that provides absolute time and robust frame Sync for high-end users as done for L1C [3]. To provide a more robust and interoperable AFS structure, this work summarizes a study and recommends alternatives for a new overlay code on the pilot channel that provides absolute time and a Sync word approach on the data channel. The overlay code and Sync word are designed to allow for flexible and robust data synchronization for both low- complexity and high-end user receivers. The new overlay code structure permits frame synchronization performance that is as good as or better than the L1 C signal, while enabling a determination of absolute time upon frame Sync to aid high-end assisted LANS AFS user receivers at low signal to noise levels. We also present the design of rate-matched 5G new radio (5GNR) LDPC codes that fit within the current 6000-symbol frame size along with a time of interval (TOI) word, frame ID (FID) word, and the remaining LunaNet AFS data message blocks. The paper describes and demonstrates robust frame Synchronization performance of the overlay code and Synch word approaches. The results are described in terms of probability of missed detection and probability of false alarm for a correct frame Synchronization at low Eb/No levels expected for decoding the TOI word and LDPC encoded data. Advantages of the proposed data Synchronization structure will be described along with use cases for low-end and high-end receivers. Practical implementation considerations will also be described.

Philip Dafesh↗

Flexible Data and Frame Synchronization Structure for the LunaNet PNT Signal

A LunaNet Lunar Augmented Navigation Service (LANS) is being developed to enable a position, navigation, and timing service for future Lunar operations. The signal includes two components. An in-phase data channel signal is spread by a 1.023 MCPS ranging code that provides a high-rate data message at 250 bps and is encoded by a strong Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) code. A pilot channel with a 5.115 MCPS spreading code is also provided. The pilot code is configured with a secondary (overlay) code that does not currently provide absolute time or frame Synchronization as is the case for L1C. This work shows the advantage of implementing an overlay structure that provides absolute time for the LunaNet LANS signal structure known as the Augmented Forward Signal (AFS). The LunaNet AFS structure was developed to service two classes of user receivers. The first class is a low-complexity user receiver that only receives the 1.023 MCPS signal and does not use the 5.115 MCPS pilot channel. For this class of user, a data frame Sync word is needed. The second class of receiver is a high-end receiver that can processes both data and pilot channels to take advantage of the higher chip rate pilot channel for enhanced robustness and improved accuracy. In the current draft LunaNet LANS AFS design, these users must employ the frame Sync word in the data channel and obtain absolute time after decoding the AFS navigation message. The signal structure would greatly benefit from the addition of a pilot overlay structure that provides absolute time and robust frame Sync for high-end users as done for L1C. To provide a more robust and interoperable AFS structure, this work summarizes a study and recommends alternatives for a new overlay code on the pilot channel that provides absolute time and a Sync word approach on the data channel. The overlay code and Sync word are designed to allow for flexible and robust data synchronization for both low- complexity and high-end user receivers. The new overlay code structure permits frame synchronization performance that is as good as or better than the L1 C signal, while enabling a determination of absolute time upon frame Sync to aid high-end assisted LANS AFS user receivers at low signal to noise levels. We also present the design of rate-matched 5G new radio (5GNR) LDPC codes that fit within the current 6000-symbol frame size along with a time of interval (TOI) word, frame ID (FID) word, and the remaining LunaNet AFS data message blocks. The paper describes and demonstrates robust frame Synchronization performance of the overlay code and Synch word approaches. The results are described in terms of probability of missed detection and probability of false alarm for a correct frame Synchronization at low Eb/No levels expected for decoding the TOI word and LDPC encoded data. Advantages of the proposed data Synchronization structure will be described along with use cases for low-end and high-end receivers. Practical implementation considerations will also be described.

LunaNet↗

Simulations of Sparse Static Detector Networks for City-Scale Radiological/Nuclear Detection

Sparse static detector networks in urban environments can be used in efforts to detect illicit radioactive sources, such as stolen nuclear material or radioactive "dirty bombs." We use detailed simulations to evaluate multiple configurations of detector networks and their ability to detect sources moving through a $6\times 6$ km 2 area of downtown Chicago. A detector network's probability of detecting a source increases with detector density but can also be increased with strategic node placement. Here, we show that the ability to fuse correlated data from a source-carrying vehicle passing by multiple detectors can significantly contribute to the overall detection probability. In this article, we distinguish static sensor deployments operated as networks able to correlate signals between sensors, from deployments operated as arrays where each sensor is operated individually. In particular, we show that additional visual attributes of source-carrying vehicles, such as vehicle color and make, can greatly improve the ability of a detector network to detect illicit sources.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Performance evaluation of neutron noise analysis in detecting special nuclear materials

Reliable and rapid inspection techniques play a vital role in preventing illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. Active interrogation systems using neutrons produced by portable, high-flux deuterium-deuterium or deuterium-tritium neutron generators are being actively developed as a secondary scanning tool for this purpose. In this study, a neutron noise analysis-based approach for detecting unshielded and shielded special nuclear materials by using a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator was evaluated. Here, this approach analyzes the fluctuation of neutron counts. Its performance was quantified with regard to time-to-detection to achieve a minimum probability of detection of 99% and a probability of false alarm of less than 1% considering various amounts of special nuclear materials and different shielding configurations. It was demonstrated that this approach could detect 17 uranium slugs in 5 s given a neutron generator yield of 8.1 × 10 7 n/s. These slugs could be detected within a reasonable time frame (200 s) when they were shielded by 10.16 cm of high-density polyethylene. The results obtained using the neutron noise analysis approach were compared with those obtained using the commonly used differential die-away analysis technique, a sensitive technique for detecting the presence of fissile materials by utilizing the prompt fission neutrons produced when the source neutrons from a neutron generator are completely diminished. For example, the time to detect 2 unshielded uranium slugs was 2.1 s when using the differential die-away analysis technique; it increased to 93 s for the neutron noise analysis approach. Although the noise analysis-based approach exhibits an overall performance which is not as good as that of differential die-away, neutron noise provides an alternative method for effective detection of special nuclear materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analysis of Eddy Current Capabilities for the Detection of Outer Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking in Small Bore Metallic Structures

The use of eddy current techniques for the detection of outer diameter damage in tubing and many complex aerospace structures often requires the use of an inner diameter probe due to a lack of access to the outside of the part. In small bore structures the probe size and orientation are constrained by the inner diameter of the part, complicating the optimization of the inspection technique. Detection of flaws through a significant remaining wall thickness becomes limited not only by the standard depth of penetration, but also geometrical aspects of the probe. Recently, an orthogonal eddy current probe was developed for detection of such flaws in Space Shuttle Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) Thrusters. In this case, the detection of deeply buried stress corrosion cracking by an inner diameter eddy current probe was sought. Probe optimization was performed based upon the limiting spatial dimensions, flaw orientation, and required detection sensitivity. Analysis of the probe/flaw interaction was performed through the use of finite and boundary element modeling techniques. Experimental data for the flaw detection capabilities, including a probability of detection study, will be presented along with the simulation data. The results of this work have led to the successful deployment of an inspection system for the detection of stress corrosion cracking in Space Shuttle Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) Thrusters.

Wincheski, Buzz↗

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Milner, G. Martin↗

Stochastic performance modeling and evaluation of obstacle detectability with imaging range sensors

Statistical modeling and evaluation of the performance of obstacle detection systems for Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is essential for the design, evaluation, and comparison of sensor systems. In this report, we address this issue for imaging range sensors by dividing the evaluation problem into two levels: quality of the range data itself and quality of the obstacle detection algorithms applied to the range data. We review existing models of the quality of range data from stereo vision and AM-CW LADAR, then use these to derive a new model for the quality of a simple obstacle detection algorithm. This model predicts the probability of detecting obstacles and the probability of false alarms, as a function of the size and distance of the obstacle, the resolution of the sensor, and the level of noise in the range data. We evaluate these models experimentally using range data from stereo image pairs of a gravel road with known obstacles at several distances. The results show that the approach is a promising tool for predicting and evaluating the performance of obstacle detection with imaging range sensors.

Matthies, Larry↗