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DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗

DOE OSTI2021

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Characterization of nonGaussian atmospheric turbulence for prediction of aircraft response statistics

Mathematical expressions were derived for the exceedance rates and probability density functions of aircraft response variables using a turbulence model that consists of a low frequency component plus a variance modulated Gaussian turbulence component. The functional form of experimentally observed concave exceedance curves was predicted theoretically, the strength of the concave contribution being governed by the coefficient of variation of the time fluctuating variance of the turbulence. Differences in the functional forms of response exceedance curves and probability densities also were shown to depend primarily on this same coefficient of variation. Criteria were established for the validity of the local stationary assumption that is required in the derivations of the exceedance curves and probability density functions. These criteria are shown to depend on the relative time scale of the fluctuations in the variance, the fluctuations in the turbulence itself, and on the nominal duration of the relevant aircraft impulse response function. Metrics that can be generated from turbulence recordings for testing the validity of the local stationary assumption were developed.

Mark, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An investigation into the probabilistic combination of quasi-static and random accelerations

The development of design load factors for aerospace and aircraft components and experiment support structures, which are subject to a simultaneous vehicle dynamic vibration (quasi-static) and acoustically generated random vibration, require the selection of a combination methodology. Typically, the procedure is to define the quasi-static and the random generated response separately, and arithmetically add or root sum square to get combined accelerations. Since the combination of a probabilistic and a deterministic function yield a probabilistic function, a viable alternate approach would be to determine the characteristics of the combined acceleration probability density function and select an appropriate percentile level for the combined acceleration. The following paper develops this mechanism and provides graphical data to select combined accelerations for most popular percentile levels.

Schock, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from Satellite Image-Derived Data

Creating maps of biophysical and geophysical variables using Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite image data is an important component of Earth science. These 2D maps have a single value at every location and standard techniques are used to visualize them. Current tools fall short, however, when it is necessary to describe a distribution of values at each location. Distributions may represent a frequency of occurrence over time, frequency of occurrence from multiple runs of an ensemble forecast or possible values from an uncertainty model. 'Distribution data sets' are described, then a case study is presented to visualize such 2D distributions. Distribution data sets are different from multivariate data sets in the sense that the values are for a single variable instead of multiple variables. Our case study data consists of multiple realizations of percent forest cover, generated using a geostatistical technique that combines ground measurements and satellite imagery to model uncertainty about forest cover. We present several approaches for analyzing and visualizing such data sets. The first is a pixel-wise analysis of the probability density functions for the 2D image while the second is an analysis of features identified within the image. Such pixel-wise and feature-wise views will give Earth scientists a more complete understanding of distribution data sets.

Kao, David↗

NASA NTRS1998

Diamond Analyzed by Secondary Electron Emission Spectroscopy

Diamond is a promising semiconductor material for novel electronic applications because of its chemical stability and inertness, heat conduction properties, and so-called negative electron affinity (NEA). When a surface has NEA, electrons generated inside the bulk of the material are able to come out into the vacuum without any potential barrier (work function). Such a material would have an extremely high secondary electron emission coefficient o, very high photoelectron (quantum) yield, and would probably be an efficient field emitter. Chemical-vapor-deposited (CVD) polycrystalline diamond films have even more advantages than diamond single crystals. Their fabrication is relatively easy and inexpensive, and they can be grown with high levels of doping--consequently, they can have relatively high conductivity. Because of these properties, diamond can be used for cold cathodes and photocathodes in high-power electronics and in high-frequency and high-temperature semiconductor devices.

Krainsky, Isay L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of Genetic Algorithms to Optimize Metal–Organic Frameworks for CO 2 Capture

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are promising materials for CO 2 capture with the potential to use less energy than current industrial CO 2 capture methods. MOFs are highly versatile sorbents, and there is an almost unlimited number of MOFs that could be synthesized. In this work, we used a genetic algorithm (GA) and grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations to efficiently search for high-performing MOFs for CO 2 capture. We analyzed the effects of important GA parameters, including the mutation probability, the number of MOFs per generation and the number of GA generations, on the GA performance. Here, we performed GCMC simulations on-the-fly during the GA procedure to determine the performance of proposed MOFs and optimized their structures using multiple objective functions across different topologies. The GA was able to determine top-performing MOFs balancing CO 2 selectivity versus working capacity and reduced the cost of molecular simulations by a factor of 25 versus brute-force screening of an entire database of structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generative Thermodynamic Computing

Here, we introduce a generative modeling framework for thermodynamic computing, in which structured data are synthesized from noise by the natural time evolution of a physical system governed by Langevin dynamics. While conventional diffusion models use neural networks to perform denoising, here the information needed to generate structure from noise is encoded by the dynamics of a thermodynamic system. Training proceeds by maximizing the probability with which the computer generates the reverse of a noising trajectory, which ensures that the computer generates data with minimal heat emission. We demonstrate this framework within a digital simulation of a thermodynamic computer. If realized in analog hardware, such a system would function as a generative model that produces structured samples without the need for artificially injected noise or active control of denoising.

Whitelam, Stephen [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

NASA NTRS2023

Split-Step Simulations to Assess the Effects of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence on the Dose Variability of N-Waves and Shaped Booms

The effects of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence on the loudness variability of a sonic boom N-wave and shaped boom are examined with split-step simulations. The shaped boom is representative of a design iteration of the NASA X-59 aircraft. Inhomogeneous atmospheric boundary layer turbulence is generated in the computational domain by a Fourier synthesis method. The N-wave and shaped boom are propagated through turbulent fields representing eight different convection levels measured at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center. Probability density functions of the formation of caustic regions along the propagation direction are computed from the N-wave results, and a parameter to collapse the caustic PDFs that accounts for both fluctuation intensities and length scales is proposed. Statistical results concerning loudness metric variability are presented, and the standard deviations of several metrics are shown to collapse across different convection levels of turbulence for small nondimensional propagation distances. The loudness metric distributions are observed to be well approximated by a normal distribution for a given range of propagation distances, and become increasingly skewed as distance increases. A model function for the dose variability is proposed, and the function parameters are found to be related to the convection level of the turbulence. The model for the dose variability distribution is compared to simulation data that were not used to find the regression parameters of the model. At several nondimensional propagation distances, agreement is observed between the model and the simulation data. These results indicate that the model may be suitable for providing quick estimates of noise dose variability in the primary carpet region across a wide range of atmospheric boundary layer conditions.

Sonic boom↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

This paper proposes a method to characterize Visual Flight Rules traffic around a regional airport. The applicability of the method is discussed in the context of Uncrewed Aircraft operations at a regional airport. The relation between traffic interaction uncertainty and operational capacity at the runway is also investigated. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules is analyzed from historical track data and visualized as heat maps generated at different altitudes. These are used to characterize the spatio-temporal uncertainty associated with traffic density, around a given airport, down to the runway. The traffic patterns at the runway are used to compute the runway capacity as a function of the probability of interaction with traffic operating under visual flight rules. Fort Worth Alliance is used as a representative regional airport for the study. Applications of the traffic characterization methods developed in this paper are also discussed.

VFR traffic, uncertainty, air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

VFR traffic↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved Biofuel Production through Discovery and Engineering of Terpene Metabolism in Switchgrass

Project Objectives - Of the myriad specialized metabolites that plants deploy to adapt to environmental challenges, terpenes form the largest group. In many major crops, unique terpene blends serve as key stress defenses that directly impact plant fitness and yield. In addition, terpenes, such as bisabolene and pinene, are used for producing renewable biofuels. Essential to advancing a broader use of terpenes for biofuel feedstock engineering is a system-wide knowledge of the diverse biosynthetic machinery and defensive potential of often species-specific terpene blends. The proposed project would merge genome-wide enzyme discovery with comparative –omics, protein structural and plant microbiome studies to define the biosynthesis and stress-defensive functions of the switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) terpene network. These insights would be combined with developing and applying non-transgenic genome editing tools to design plants with desirable terpene blends for higher productivity and biofuel production on marginal lands. As a dedicated lignocellulosic feedstock for U.S. biofuel production with high net energy yield, stress tolerance, and available genome resources, switchgrass is well-suited for devising new avenues for biofuel production. Project Description – The diversity of plant terpene defenses is governed by species-specific families of terpene synthase (TPS) and cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (P450) enzymes. Mining of the switchgrass genome (genotype Alamo) identified ~100 TPS and P450 candidate genes, and combinatorial biochemical analysis of synthesized TPSs and P450s revealed more than a dozen enzymes with common and novel activities. In addition, several identified terpene metabolites and the corresponding transcripts were up-regulated in response to abiotic stressors. These findings demonstrate a unique switchgrass terpene network with probable importance to abiotic stress tolerance, thus providing a large chemical portfolio for optimizing crop resistance, yield, and biofuel composition. Leveraging these preliminary data, we propose to generate a genome-wide map of the switchgrass terpene metabolic network through multi-gene co-expression analyses that allow the efficient cross-validation of TPS and P450 functions. Key enzymes would further be applied to structure-function studies via X-ray protein crystallography, homology modeling and site-directed mutagenesis to gain mechanistic insight into the catalytic specificity of switchgrass terpene metabolism and provide gene and amino acid targets for genome editing. In tandem with terpene pathway discovery, system-wide metabolomics, transcriptomics and proteomics studies in switchgrass accessions of contrasting drought tolerance would define the role of switchgrass terpene metabolism in conferring abiotic stress resilience. Metabolic changes would be assessed in a combined approach of targeted (terpenes) and untargeted metabolite profiling using a high-resolution LC-MS/MS approach, differential gene expression analyses through multiplexed Illumina RNA sequencing, and quantitative analysis of high-priority pathway enzymes using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Drawing on these insights, knock-down/out mutants of stress-associated pathway nodes would be generated by optimizing transient virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) and CRISPR/Cas9 systems under control of the Tobacco Rattle Virus (TRV). The resulting mutant lines would then be analyzed for stress susceptibility and the impact on the root microbiome to define gene functions in planta. Knowledge of terpene pathways, enzyme mechanisms and bioactivities would be applied to enhance switchgrass stress resilience and to tailor-make terpene blends for biofuel production. Here, TRV-enabled CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing, including allele-specific knock-out of redundant genes, engineering of enzyme specificity via structure-guided point mutations, and overexpression of terpene genes relevant to stress-protection or biofuel production, would be used to increase metabolic flux toward desired pathways. Broader Impacts - Integrating the system-wide discovery, mechanistic analysis and non-transgenic genome engineering of the switchgrass terpene network aligns the required steps to unlock the chemical potential of this important metabolite class to generate crops that are more resistant to stress and provide advanced biofuel production in light of rising climate pressures as foreseeable challenges for bioenergy crop cultivation. The proposed project would further offer interdisciplinary student training through active involvement in the project and integration of research concepts and outcomes into newly-developed graduate and undergraduate courses on Plant Biotechnology.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Cruise Mach Number Study of Truss-Braced Wing Aircraft

The Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) Phase III was led by Dr. Rakesh K. Kapania and Dr. Joseph A. Schetz at the Multidisciplinary Analysis and Design Center for Advanced Vehicles, Department of Aerospace and Ocean Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg VA. The research was performed from December 2014 to December 2015. Three major areas were investigated: Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) studies of truss braced wing (TBW) and strut braced wing (SBW) vehicles at cruise Mach numbers of 0.7 and 0.8 for a flight mission similar to current market single aisle configurations. The performance and the characteristics of the optimized vehicles were compared to the SUGAR Phase II TBW vehicle. These results were obtained without applying any of the extended transonic aerodynamic and aeroelastic tools that will be discussed later. It was found that the cruise Mach number has a large effect on the best “truss” configuration. At Mach 0.7, an SBW has a better fuel consumption and better take-off gross weight (TOGW). However, at Mach 0.8, the TBW is superior because the jury strut aids in satisfying the flutter constraint; Two-dimensional, steady, transonic aerodynamic analysis of the Boeing Airfoil J (BACJ) airfoil was performed for a range of thickness ratios, Mach numbers and lift coefficients. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were solved to obtain the lift-curve slope, wave drag coefficient, the location of the center of pressure and to predict the separation at the trailing edge, which may lead to buffeting. One of the goals was to develop a database of lift-curve slope and the location of center of pressure, which could be used in a transonic aeroelastic analysis. Another goal was to compare the wave drag coefficients to those predicted by Lock’s fourth-power law and also to compare the transonic effects obtained from RANS simulations to those predicted by the Korn equations. A third goal was to develop a buffet boundary, which can be integrated into the MDO framework to prevent the optimized designs from probable buffeting; A state-space transonic aeroelastic analysis tool was developed, which can incorporate the nonlinear transonic effects in the unsteady aerodynamics but is yet computationally cheap when used within the VT MDO framework. The aeroelastic analysis uses Leishman- Beddoes (LB) indicial functions, which generated a state-space representation of the aeroelastic system. The indicial functions allow the incorporation of data for steady lift-curve slope and location of the center of pressure. Thus, the steady transonic effects are included, and the unsteady aerodynamic responses are a linearization about the steady results. The aeroelastic approach discretizes the wing into numerous strips, which results in a large eigenvalue problem as each strip has eight augmented aerodynamic states as per the LB theory. Thus, to reduce the computation expense, a reduced order model (ROM) was developed. The approach was validated using a few examples.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Natural transfer of viable microbes in space

The possibility and probability of natural transfer of viable microbes from Mars to Earth and Earth to Mars traveling in meteoroids during the first 0.5 Ga and the following 4 Ga are investigated, including: --radiation protection against the galactic cosmic ray nuclei and the solar rays, dose rates as a function of the meteorite's radial column mass (radius x density), combined with dose rates generated by natural radioactivity within the meteorite; and survival curves for some bacterial species using NASA's HZETRN transport code --other factors affecting microbe survival: vacuum; central meteorite temperatures at launch, orbiting, and arrival; pressure and acceleration at launch; spontaneous DNA decay; metal ion migration --mean sizes and numbers of unshocked meteorites ejected and percentage falling on Earth, using current semiempirical results --viable flight times for the microbe species Bacillus subtilis and Deinococcus radiodurans R1 --the approximate fraction of microbes (with properties like the two species studied) viably arriving on Earth out of those ejected from Mars during the period 4 Ga BP to the present time, and during the 700 Ma from 4.5 to 3.8 Ga. Similarly, from Earth to Mars. The conclusion is that if microbes existed or exist on Mars, viable transfer to Earth is not only possible but also highly probable, due to microbes' impressive resistance to the dangers of space transfer and to the dense traffic of billions of martian meteorites which have fallen on Earth since the dawn of our planetary system. Earth-to-Mars transfer is also possible but at a much lower frequency.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing surface heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in E3SMv1 single-column model over ARM SGP during summertime

Abstract. The Earth's land surface features spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a wide range of scales below those resolved by current Earth system models (ESMs). State-of-the-art land and atmosphere models employ parameterizations to represent their subgrid heterogeneity, but the land–atmosphere coupling in ESMs typically operates on the grid scale. Communicating the information on the land surface heterogeneity with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains a challenge in modeling land–atmosphere interactions. In order to account for the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling, we implement a new coupling scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth system model version 1 (E3SMv1) that uses adjusted surface variances and covariance of potential temperature and specific water content as the lower boundary condition for the atmosphere model. The new lower boundary condition accounts for both the variability of individual subgrid land surface patches and the inter-patch variability. The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) simulations over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site were performed to assess the impacts. We find that the new coupling parameterization increases the magnitude and diurnal cycle of the temperature variance and humidity variance in the lower ABL on non-precipitating days. The impacts are primarily attributed to subgrid inter-patch variability rather than the variability of individual patches. These effects extend vertically from the surface to several levels in the lower ABL on clear days. We also find that accounting for surface heterogeneity increases low cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP). These cloud changes are associated with the change in cloud regime indicated by the skewness of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity. In precipitating days, the inter-patch variability reduces significantly so that the impact of accounting for surface heterogeneity vanishes. These results highlight the importance of accounting for subgrid heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in next-generation ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

LN2 spray droplet size measurement via ensemble diffraction technique

The size of subcooled liquified nitrogen droplets are measured with a 5 mW He-Ne laser as a function of pressure difference (delta P) across flat spray and full cone pressure atomizing nozzles. For delta P's of 3 to 30 psid, the spray sauter mean diameter (SMD) ranged between 250 to 50 microns. The pressure range tested is representative of those expected during cryogenic fluid transfer operations in space. The droplet sizes from the flat spray nozzles were greater than those from the full cone nozzle. A power function of the form, SMD varies as delta P(exp a), describes the spray SMD as a function of the delta P very well. The values of a were -0.36 for the flat spray and -0.87 for the full cone. The reduced dependence of the flat spray SMD on the delta P was probably because of: (1) the absence of a swirler that generates turbulence within the nozzle to enhance atomization, and (2) a possible increase in shearing stress resulting from the delayed atomization due to the absence of turbulence. The nitrogen quality, up to 1.5 percent is based on isenthalpic expansion, did not have a distinct and measurable effect on the spray SMD. Both bimodal and monomodal droplet size population distributions were measured. In the bimodal distribution, the frequency of the first mode was much greater than the frequency of the second mode. Also, the frequency of the second mode was low enough such that a monomodal approximation probably would give reasonable results.

Saiyed, N. H.↗