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Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaling High-Resolution Soil Organic Matter Composition to Improve Predictions of Potential Soil Respiration Across the Continental United States

Despite the importance of microbial soil organic matter (SOM) respiration in regulating the flux of carbon between soils and the atmosphere, soil carbon cycling models remain primarily based on climate and soil properties, leading to large uncertainty in predictions. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed high-resolution water-extractable SOM profiles from soil cores collected across the United States by the 1,000 Soils Pilot of the Molecular Observation Network. Our innovation lies in using machine learning to distill thousands of SOM formula into tractable units; and it enables integrating data from molecular measurements into soil respiration models. In surface soils, SOM chemistry provided better estimates of potential soil respiration than soil physicochemistry, and using them combined yielded the best prediction. Overall, we identify specific subsets of organic molecules that may improve predictions of global soil respiration and create a strong basis for developing new representations in process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.

robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updated Available Drawdowns for Big Hill SPR Caverns - Model Including the Caprock Fault

This report updates the estimated values of the baseline available drawdowns for the caverns at the Big Hill storage facility, and an updated table listing the available drawdowns. An updated finite element numerical analysis model, which included a fault in the caprock layers, was constructed and the daily data of actual wellhead pressures and oil-brine interfaces was used. The number of available drawdowns for each of the Big Hill SPR caverns is estimated using the new model. All caverns are predicted to have five available drawdowns remaining from a geomechanical perspective. BH-101 and 105 have a region of concern at the floor edge and/or sloping floor, where tensile and dilatant stresses are predicted to occur during each workover. The tensile state is predicted to occur because of the geometries of the edge and floor. Therefore, geomechanical examination for two caverns would be recommended after a drawdown leach. The well integrity of each cavern is not investigated in this report. The estimates for the number of baseline available drawdowns are subject to change in the future as the knowledge of physical phenomena at the sites, and the further development of the models of geomechanical behavior at the sites, evolve over time.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian filtering for model predictive control of stochastic gene expression in single cells

This study describes a method for controlling the production of protein in individual cells using stochastic models of gene expression. By combining modern microscopy platforms with optogenetic gene expression, experimentalists are able to accurately apply light to individual cells, which can induce protein production. Here we use a finite state projection based stochastic model of gene expression, along with Bayesian state estimation to control protein copy numbers within individual cells. We compare this method to previous methods that use population based approaches. We also demonstrate the ability of this control strategy to ameliorate discrepancies between the predictions of a deterministic model and stochastic switching system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum circuit fidelity estimation using machine learning

The computational power of real-world quantum computers is limited by errors. When using quantum computers to perform algorithms which cannot be efficiently simulated classically, it is important to quantify the accuracy with which the computation has been performed. In this work, we introduce a machine learning-based technique to estimate the fidelity between the state produced by a noisy quantum circuit and the target state corresponding to ideal noise-free computation. Our machine learning model is trained in a supervised manner, using smaller or simpler circuits for which the fidelity can be estimated using other techniques like direct fidelity estimation and quantum state tomography. Here we demonstrate that, for simulated random quantum circuits with a realistic noise model, the trained model can predict the fidelities of more complicated circuits for which such methods are infeasible. In particular, we show that the trained model may make predictions for circuits with higher degrees of entanglement than were available in the training set and that the model may make predictions for non-Clifford circuits even when the training set included only Clifford-reducible circuits. This empirical demonstration suggests classical machine learning may be useful for making predictions about beyond-classical quantum circuits for some non-trivial problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Development of Novel Equiatomic Refractory Multi Principal elemental Alloys Based on MoNbTi System for Use in Irradiation Environments

Multi Principal Elemental Alloys (MPEA) have emerged as promising materials for next-generation nuclear reactors due to their exceptional irradiation resistance. Eight equiatomic MPEA based on the MoNbTi system, comprising of elements with low thermal neutron absorption cross-sections were explored using a combined approach employing empirical parameter estimations, and CALPHAD simulations by which the phases and elemental segregation observed in all the alloys in the as-cast state were predicted. Solution heat treatment at 1500°C transformed five alloys into single-phase matrix materials, enhancing homogeneity and reducing hardness. The densities of the alloys ranged between 6.47 to 7.68 g/cm3, hardness between 472 and 656 VHN, Young’s modulus between 142 GPa to 169 GPa, shear modulus between 54 GPa and 62 GPa, bulk modulus between 117 GPa to 194 GPa and Poisson’s ratio between 0.3 to 0.35. The in-situ high temperature Xray diffraction results, differential scanning calorimetry and dilatometry results up to 1000°C suggested the high temperature phase stability of the MPEA. Subsequent ageing heat treatment at 800 and 1000 oC for 96 hours revealed significant secondary phase precipitation in MoNbTiZr, MoNbTiZrV, and MoNbTiCrA. Oxidation studies at 800 oC for 24 hours in air revealed superior oxidation resistance and cubic rate law dependence in Cr containing MPEA especially in MoNbTiCrAl, while severe mass gain resulting in total disintegration and exfoliation in MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiZrV. This comprehensive study underscores the potential of novel MPEA as promising materials for advanced nuclear reactor applications, shedding light on their microstructural control, mechanical properties, thermal stability, and oxidation resistance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast-forwarding quantum simulation with real-time quantum Krylov subspace algorithms

Quantum subspace diagonalization (QSD) algorithms have emerged as a competitive family of algorithms that avoid many of the optimization pitfalls associated with parameterized quantum circuit algorithms. While the vast majority of the QSD algorithms have focused on solving the eigenpair problem for ground, excited-state, and thermal observable estimation, there has been a lot less work in considering QSD algorithms for the problem of quantum dynamical simulation. In this work, we propose several quantum Krylov fast-forwarding (QKFF) algorithms capable of predicting long-time dynamics well beyond the coherence time of current quantum hardware. Our algorithms use real-time evolved Krylov basis states prepared on the quantum computer and a multi-reference subspace method to ensure convergence towards high-fidelity, long-time dynamics. In particular, we show that the proposed multi-reference methodology provides a systematic way of trading off circuit depth with classical post-processing complexity. Further, we also demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through numerical implementations for several quantum chemistry problems including the calculation of the auto-correlation and dipole moment correlation functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

HVAC control fine-grained occupancy pattern estimation

A thermal state of a plurality of zones of the building is updated according to a building thermal model and information received from temperature sensors of the building. Predicted occupant counts for an upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones are updated using actual occupancy counts for each of the plurality of zones. A misprediction type distribution for the upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones is updated, the misprediction type distribution indicating misprediction for true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives. A total misprediction cost expectation is updated according to the predicted occupant counts and the misprediction type distribution. HVAC power for each of the plurality of zones is determined to optimize occupant thermal comfort weighted according to the predicted occupant counts while minimizing the total misprediction cost expectation. HVAC operation is controlled per the HVAC power.

Lin, Shan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting secondary organic aerosol phase state and viscosity and its effect on multiphase chemistry in a regional-scale air quality model

Atmospheric aerosols are a significant public health hazard and have substantial impacts on the climate. Secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) have been shown to phase separate into a highly viscous organic outer layer surrounding an aqueous core. This phase separation can decrease the partitioning of semi-volatile and low-volatile species to the organic phase and alter the extent of acid-catalyzed reactions in the aqueous core. A new algorithm that can determine SOA phase separation based on their glass transition temperature (T g ), oxygen to carbon (O:C) ratio and organic mass to sulfate ratio, and meteorological conditions was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) system version 5.2.1 and was used to simulate the conditions in the continental United States for the summer of 2013. SOA formed at the ground/surface level was predicted to be phase separated with core–shell morphology, i.e., aqueous inorganic core surrounded by organic coating 65.4 % of the time during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) on average in the isoprene-rich southeastern United States. Our estimate is in proximity to the previously reported ~70 % in literature. The phase states of organic coatings switched between semi-solid and liquid states, depending on the environmental conditions. The semi-solid shell occurring with lower aerosol liquid water content (western United States and at higher altitudes) has a viscosity that was predicted to be 10 2 –10 12 Pa s, which resulted in organic mass being decreased due to diffusion limitation. Organic aerosol was primarily liquid where aerosol liquid water was dominant (eastern United States and at the surface), with a viscosity <10 2 Pa s. Phase separation while in a liquid phase state, i.e., liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), also reduces reactive uptake rates relative to homogeneous internally mixed liquid morphology but was lower than aerosols with a thick viscous organic shell. The sensitivity cases performed with different phase-separation parameterization and dissolution rate of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) into the particle phase in CMAQ can have varying impact on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) organic mass, in terms of bias and error compared to field data collected during the 2013 SOAS. This highlights the need to better constrain the parameters that govern phase state and morphology of SOA, as well as expand mechanistic representation of multiphase chemistry for non-IEPOX SOA formation in models aided by novel experimental insights.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Full‐Waveform Simulation of Infrasound Propagation in the Atmosphere: A Case Study of the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship Explosion

Infrasound, low‐frequency sound below 20 Hz, has been a key technology to monitor explosion events in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty Organization provides the means for continuous monitoring of infrasonic events worldwide. Infrasonic techniques for event location and size estimation can also complement other observational techniques for the detection and characterization of the entry of asteroids or large meteoroids. In this study, we describe the detection capability of IMS infrasound stations for an explosive event in the middle of the atmosphere. Full‐waveform simulations are performed with the specification of atmospheric conditions and incorporated into the event location and explosion yield estimation. We applied it to the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship explosion at 29 km altitude. Starship is a super heavy‐lift space vehicle constructed by SpaceX and known as the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The Starship explosion created huge pressure disturbances in the atmosphere, and its infrasound was detected by the IMS arrays in North America between 2000 and 4000 km. Independent observational data and available ground‐truth information provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the monitoring capability of the IMS network for elevated sources in the atmosphere. We also demonstrate the capability of full‐waveform simulation for infrasound wavefield characterization and prediction to improve event location and yield estimation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification (LDRD 218317)

This report summarizes the work done under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled "Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification". In this project we investigated multi-fidelity strategies for fusing data from information sources of varying cost and accuracy. Most existing strategies exploit hierarchical relationships between models, for example that occur when different models are generated by refining a numerical discretization parameter. In this work we focused on encoding the relationships between information sources using directed acyclic graphs. The multi-fidelity networks can have general structure and represent a significantly greater variety of modeling relationships than recursive networks used in the current state literature. Numerical results show that a non-hierarchical multi-fidelity Monte Carlo strategy can reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in predictions of a model of plasma expanding in a vacuum by almost two orders of magnitude.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗