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At least 145 records · Page 8

Model predictive control for demand flexibility: Real-world operation of a commercial building with photovoltaic and battery systems

Hundreds of studies have investigated Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the optimal operation of building energy systems in the past two decades. However, MPC field tests are still uncommon, especially for small- and medium-sized commercial buildings and for buildings integrated with onsite renewables. This paper describes the implementation and the long-term performance evaluation of an MPC controller in a small commercial building equipped with behind-the-meter photovoltaics and electrochemical batteries. MPC controls space conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the battery system. We tested two types of demand flexibility applications in the field: electricity bill minimization under time-of-use tariffs and responses to grid flexibility events. Results show that the proposed controller achieves 12% of annual electricity cost savings and 34% peak demand reduction against the baseline, while respecting thermal comfort and food safety. The field tests also demonstrate the ability of the MPC controller to provide a multitude of grid services including real-time pricing, demand limiting, load shedding, load shifting, and load tracking, using the same optimization framework.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

A Generic Multivector Model Predictive Control With Symmetric Pulse Pattern for Hybrid Multilevel Converters

This article presents a generic multivector model predictive control (MV-MPC) method that has the potential to be applied to all hybrid multilevel converters (HMCs). It first locates the reference voltage vector in the 120° oblique coordinate to select the three adjacent voltage vectors to be applied over one control cycle. Then, the current tracking is guaranteed through duty cycle optimization and dc capacitor voltages are balanced by evaluating possible switching sequences that belong to the voltage vectors with optimal duty cycles. At last, the optimal switching sequence with a symmetric five- or seven-segment pulse pattern is generated using an external modulator. Here, the proposed generic MV-MPC can significantly improve the quality of the output current, while achieving a constant equivalent switching frequency at the same time. Experimental studies on an all silicon carbide HMC prototype, i.e., an active neutral point clamped converter with cascaded H-bridge, are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed MV-MPC strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Navigation Challenges in the MAVEN Science Phase

The MAVEN spacecraft will explore Mars' upper atmosphere. The primary science phase will last one (Earth) year, during which the spacecraft will be in an elliptical 4.5 hour orbit at an inclination of 75 degrees. The 75 degree inclination results in the orbit periapsis oscillating between +/-75 degrees latitude, thus naturally covering most Mars latitudes during the primary mission. The orbit will be controlled via maneuvers so that the maximum orbit density remains in a density corridor. This results in the MAVEN science phase being in a light aerobraking type orbit of around 160 km for an extended period. In addition, the mission has significantly less tracking data than aerobraking phases of other missions, and even less than other NASA Mars orbiter primary phases. This results in significant challenges for the Navigation Team. They can be summarized as a difficulty in determining the current density profile, which maps into degraded trajectory predictions and less accurate control over the spacecraft location in the targeted density corridor via maneuvers. This paper describes these challenges and the Navigation Team's plans to meet them.

MAVEN↗

A Simplified Model Predictive Control Strategy for a Nine-Level Hybrid Multilevel Converter

This paper proposes a simplified model predictive control (SMPC) for a 9-level hybrid multilevel converter based on the active-neutral-point-clamped (ANPC) topology. The proposed SMPC firstly identifies the voltage vector that has optimal current tracking performance by a novel geometrical positioning approach in the complex plane, which can dramatically reduce the computational burden. Then it evaluates the switching states that are subject to the same voltage vector and selects the optimal switching state to balance the dc capacitor voltages. Both simulation and experimental results are carried out to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling

As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ATS-6 description

Basic design features of Applications Technology Satellite-6 (ATS-6) are discussed, and a variety of experiments carried out with the satellite is described. The 9.1 m reflector is a furlable 48-rib design. The earth viewing module housing most of the electronics is connected to the reflector by an A-frame truss made of graphic fiber reinforced plastic with excellent dimensional stability over a wide temperature range. The solar arrays, extended beyond the diameter of the reflector, are fixed hemi-cylinders consisting of 16 flat panels each. The communications system is an integrated multifrequency RF repeater capable of receiving up to 3 signals in any of 4 frequency bands (C, S, L, VHF) and retransmitting them on any desired frequency in 4 frequency bands (C, S, L, UHF). Results of the Tracking and Data Relay Experiment with GEOS-3 are summarized. Accuracies of 0.1 to 0.2 deg have been maintained in the programmed mode of tracking using the ATS-6 Digital Operational Controller, and communications links for the relay of 1.56 kilobit telemetry data from GEOS and for acquisition of range and range rate data performed as predicted or better.

Redisch, W. N.↗

Simplified Two-Stage Model Predictive Control for a Hybrid Multilevel Converter With Floating H-Bridge

This paper proposes a simplified two-stage model predictive control (ST-MPC) for a hybrid multilevel converter, which is an active-neutral-point-clamped converter with floating H-bridge (ANPC-H). The objective of the first stage is to select the voltage vector that has the optimal current tracking performance by using a novel geometrical positioning approach in the complex plane. The second stage selects the best switching state among all the available switching states that belong to the same voltage vector obtained in the first stage, to balance dc capacitor voltages and reduce the common mode voltage. The proposed ST-MPC can dramatically reduce the computational burden and ensure the best current tracking by the two-stage structure, such that the execution time is much shorter compared with the conventional MPC. In addition, the geometrical positioning approach in the first stage is generic and can be applicable for any multilevel converters with N-level output; thus, this ST-MPC can be applied for both sevenand nine-level operation of the hybrid ANPC-H converter under different dc voltage ratios. Both simulation results and experimental results obtained on a silicon carbide hybrid ANPC-H converter prototype validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ST-MPC strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration of Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al., 2003 reported Juniperus pollen, a significant aeroallergen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Yin 2007) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust (Yin 2007). The use of satellite data products for studying phenology is well documented (White and Nemani 2006). We are modifying the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. The linkages already exist with DREAM through PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in remote Sensing) to the public health community. This linkage has the potential to fill this data gap so that health effects of pollen can better be tracked for linkage with health outcome data including asthma, respiratory effects, myocardial infarction, and lost work days. DREAM is based on the SKIRON/Eta modeling system and the Eta/NCEP regional atmospheric model. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterizations of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particle size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The dust production mechanism is based on the viscous/turbulent mixing, shear-free convection diffusion, and soil moisture. In addition to these sophisticated mechanisms, very high resolution databases, including elevation, soil properties, and vegetation cover are utilized. The DREAM model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust (PREAM). Pollen release will be estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) will provide information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, peak greenness, dry-down and pollen release. Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities will be used as verification. Techniques developed using MOD09 surface reflectance products will be directly applicable to the next generation sensors such as VIIRS. The resulting deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details of phenology and meteorology and their dependencies. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program (EPHT) and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

The 4D area navigation system description and flight test results

A 4D area navigation system was designed to guide aircraft along a prespecified flight path (reference path) such that the aircraft would arrive at the approach gate at a time specified by the ATC controller. Key components to achieve this requirement were: (1) stored reference trajectories; (2) a continuously recomputed capture trajectory to a selected waypoint on the reference trajectory so as to achieve the desired time of arrival; (3) electronic situation displays; and (4) a control system to follow the overall trajectory in space and time. The system was implemented in a digital integrated avionics system (STOLAND) installed on a CV-340 airplane. Although the 4D system was designed primarily for automatic operation, it was flight tested in a flight director mode (the pilot follows the flight director commands), because the CV-340 autopilot servos were not tied to the avionics system. The flight test showed that, even in the flight director mode, the pilot did achieve the objectives of path tracking and time of arrival control with only moderate workload. The system also permitted controlled delay of the time of arrival by path stretching, which takes advantage of the continuously changing capture trajectory to predict the time of arrival. Simulations in the automatic and manual modes were used to complement the flight data.

Lee, H. Q.↗

Maximum Normalized Rate as a Flying Qualities Parameter

Discrete attitude commands have become a standard task for flying qualities evaluation and control system testing. Much pilot opinion data is now available for ground-based and in-flight simulations, but adequate performance measures and prediction methods have not been established. The Step Target Tracking Prediction method, introduced in 1978, correlated time-on-target and rms tracking data with NT-33 in-flight longitudinal simulations, but did not employ parameters easily measured in manned flight and simulation. Recent application of the Step Target Tracking Prediction method to lateral flying qualities analysis has led to a new measure of performance. This quantity, called Maximum Normalized Rate (MNR), reflects the greatest attitude rate a pilot can employ during a discrete maneuver without excessive overshoot and oscillation. MNR correlates NT-33 lateral pilot opinion ratings well, and is easily measured during flight test or simulation. Futhermore, the Step Target MNR method can be used to analyze large amplitude problems concerning rate limiting and nonlinear aerodynamics.

Onstott, E. D.↗

Maximum Normalized Rate as a Flying Qualities Parameter

Discrete attitude commands have become a standard task for flying qualities evaluation and control system testing. Much pilot opinion data is now available for ground-based and in-flight simulations, but adequate performance measures and prediction methods have not been established. The Step Target Tracking Prediction method, introduced in 1978, correlated time-on-target and rms tracking data with NT-33 in-flight longitudinal simulations, but did not employ parameters easily measured in manned flight and simulation. Recent application of the Step Target Tracking Prediction method to lateral flying qualities analysis has led to a new measure of performance. This quantity, called Maximum Normalized Rate (MNR), reflects the greatest attitude rate a pilot can employ during a discrete maneuver without excessive overshoot and oscillation. MNR correlates NT-33 lateral pilot opinion ratings well, and is easily measured during night test or simulation. Furthermore, the Step Target MNR method can be used to analyze large amplitude problems concerning rate limiting and nonlinear aerodynamics.

Onstott, E. D.↗

Pointing system modeling for performance prediction

The paper considers the modeling and analysis of the JPL Precision Pointing and Tracking System, a gyro stabilized platform pointing system using optical target tracking. Sensor and actuator models are described which realistically represent actual hardware, and a practical controller and state estimator is developed through modern control techniques. The effect of the actuator nonlinearities on the system performance evaluation is discussed along with the modeling of the noise sources in the gyro. Finally, the limitations of implementing the control algorithms on the spacecraft computer, and the resulting tradeoffs are presented.

Boussalis, D.↗

A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction

In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Effects of Eye Measures on Human Controller Remnant and Control Behavior

The aim of the current research was to investigate the possible relation between changes in eye activity parameters, variations in human remnant at the perceptual level and changes in human operator model parameters. Fourteen subjects performed a pitch tracking task, in which the display brightness was varied by changing the background color around a simplified primary flight display, in order to create a controlled, quasilinear change in the pupil diameter through the pupillary light reflex. Pupil diameter, blink, eye opening, and opening and closing amplitudes and speeds were recorded using an eye tracker. Participants controlled single integrator-like and double integrator-like dynamics. The variation in pupil diameter did not introduce significant differences in neither remnant characteristics nor the human operator model parameters. An interesting effect occurred in the human controller’s time delay for the single integrator task, where the time delay was significantly higher for the darkest brightness compared to the other levels of brightness. This effect was not observed for the double integrator dynamics. Data suggested that the more difficult controlled dynamics induced a squinting effect, visible in smaller eye opening, and smaller eye opening and closing amplitudes. These results suggest that performance, and control behavior are invariant to the display brightness. Moreover, monitoring changes in the eye activity could represent a method of predicting variations in human remnant characteristics and human controller model parameters, introduced by task difficulty.

Eye tracking↗

A Two-Level Model Predictive Control-Based Approach for Building Energy Management including Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, Solar Forecasting and Building Loads

This paper uses a two-level model predictive control-based approach for the coordinated control and energy management of an integrated system that includes photovoltaic (PV) generation, energy storage, and building loads. Novel features of the proposed local controller include (1) the ability to simultaneously manage building loads and energy storage to achieve different operational objectives such as energy efficiency, economic cost efficiency, demand response and grid optimization through the design of specific power trajectory tracking performance functionals, (2) an energy trim function that minimizes the impact of solar forecasting errors on system performance, and (3) the design of a state of charge controller that uses day-ahead forecast of solar power and building loads to intialize energy storage at the start of each day. The local controller is tested in simulation using an exemplary system with PV generation, energy storage and dispatchable building loads. Two sample days with different PV forecasts and multiple case scenarios are considered, and the performance of the algorithm in managing the real and reactive net building load trajectories and the ramp rate of PV injections into the utility network are evaluated. The simulations are based on actual forecasted and measured PV data, and the results show that the local controller meets the tracking requirements for real and reactive power within the operating constraints of the building.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development and Validation of a Slosh-Based Ullage Collapse Model

Ullage collapse modeling is an essential tool for the success of spacecraft powered by cryogenic propellants. The degree of ullage collapse can have a major impact on the design of cryogenic propellant tanks as well as the mission’s concept of operations. Additional commodities (e.g., helium gas for pressure control) and their quantities are dependent on the amount of heat transfer and phase change of propellants expected during flight. Currently, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with heat transfer and phase change is the most accurate method for predicting ullage collapse. CFD simulations of this kind, however, can become very costly for problems requiring large domains, long simulation times, or significant liquid motion. Consequently, there is a need for a reduced order model to provide fast responses which can be used in engineering design decisions. The proposed numerical model is a nodal approach, augmented by outputs from CFD analyses that are generated rapidly and reliably. These outputs include transient values for liquid-vapor interface area, interface velocity, and liquid position using a volume of fluid (VoF) method. There are several benefits of combining a nodal approach with slosh predictions from CFD simulations: leveraging of the Loci/STREAM-VoF solver that has been validated in high-g and low-g environments, rapid modeling of VoF with isothermal propellant simplifications and relatively coarse meshes, and improved model predictions from the nodal tool. The nodal approach, informed by the slosh predictions from CFD, assumes uniform conditions in the liquid and gas domains. Modifications to account for temperature stratification in the liquid and gas may be implemented as a future improvement. Thermodynamic changes within the tank are solved at user-defined timesteps. First, impacts due to mass entering or leaving the control volume are captured. Second, heat transfer impacts are accounted for by tracking the volume of the gas which has been contacted by liquid in that timestep and rebalancing the internal energy. Finally, phase change is approximated using the area and velocity of the interface. The tank conditions are re-computed by conserving mass and energy. Calibration of the model to several test flights and experiments are required to baseline the predictive power and uncertainty. The final product will enable designers and engineers to create quick-turnaround predictions for ullage collapse and inform design feasibility.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Discriminability of Prediction Artifacts in a Time Delayed Virtual Environment

Overall latency remains an impediment to perceived image stability and consequently to human performance in virtual environment (VE) systems. Predictive compensators have been proposed as a means to mitigate these shortcomings, but they introduce rendering errors because of induced motion overshoot and heightened noise. Discriminability of these compensator artifacts was investigated by a protocol in which head tracked image stability for 35 ms baseline VE system latency was compared against artificially added (16.7 to 100 ms) latency compensated by a previously studied Kalman Filter (K-F) predictor. A control study in which uncompensated 16.7 to 100 ms latencies were compared against the baseline was also performed. Results from 10 subjects in the main study and 8 in the control group indicate that predictive compensation artifacts are less discernible than the disruptions of uncompensated time delay for the shorter but not the longer added latencies. We propose that noise magnification and overshoot are contributory cues to the presence of predictive compensation.

Adelstein, Bernard D.↗