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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013 was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cross-comparison of spacecraft-environment interaction model predictions applied to Solar Probe Plus near perihelion

Five spacecraft-plasma models are used to simulate the interaction of a simplified geometry Solar Probe Plus (SPP) satellite with the space environment under representative solar wind conditions near perihelion. By considering similarities and differences between results obtained with different numerical approaches under well defined conditions, the consistency and validity of our models can be assessed. The impact on model predictions of physical effects of importance in the SPP mission is also considered by comparing results obtained with and without these effects. Simulation results are presented and compared with increasing levels of complexity in the physics of interaction between solar environment and the SPP spacecraft. The comparisons focus particularly on spacecraft floating potentials, contributions to the currents collected and emitted by the spacecraft, and on the potential and density spatial profiles near the satellite. The physical effects considered include spacecraft charging, photoelectron and secondary electron emission, and the presence of a background magnetic field. Model predictions obtained with our different computational approaches are found to be in agreement within 2% when the same physical processes are taken into account and treated similarly. The comparisons thus indicate that, with the correct description of important physical effects, our simulation models should have the required skill to predict details of satellite-plasma interaction physics under relevant conditions, with a good level of confidence. Our models concur in predicting a negative floating potential V{sub fl}∼−10V for SPP at perihelion. They also predict a “saturated emission regime” whereby most emitted photo- and secondary electron will be reflected by a potential barrier near the surface, back to the spacecraft where they will be recollected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field demonstration and implementation analysis of model predictive control in an office HVAC system

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a promising technique to address growing needs for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to operate more efficiently and with greater flexibility. However, due to a number of factors, including the required implementation expertise, lack of high quality data, and a risk-adverse industry, MPC has yet to gain widespread adoption. While many previous studies have shown the advantages of MPC, few analyzed the implementation effort and associated practical challenges. In addition, previous work has developed an open-source, Modelica-based tool-chain that automatically generates optimal control, parameter estimation, and state estimation problems aimed at facilitating MPC implementation. Therefore, this study demonstrates usage of this tool-chain to implement MPC in a real office building, discusses practical challenges of implementing MPC, and estimates the implementation effort associated with various tasks in order to inform the development of future workflows and serve as an initial benchmark for their impact on reducing implementation effort. This study finds that the implemented MPC saves approximately 40% of HVAC energy over the existing control during a two-month trial period and that tasks related to data collection and controller deployment activities can each require as much effort as model generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-207B-01: A Prediction Model for Distinguishing Radiation Necrosis From Tumor Progression After Gamma Knife Radiosurgery Based On Radiomics Features From MR Images

Purpose: To develop and validate a prediction model using radiomics features extracted from MR images to distinguish radiation necrosis from tumor progression for brain metastases treated with Gamma knife radiosurgery. Methods: The images used to develop the model were T1 post-contrast MR scans from 71 patients who had had pathologic confirmation of necrosis or progression; 1 lesion was identified per patient (17 necrosis and 54 progression). Radiomics features were extracted from 2 images at 2 time points per patient, both obtained prior to resection. Each lesion was manually contoured on each image, and 282 radiomics features were calculated for each lesion. The correlation for each radiomics feature between two time points was calculated within each group to identify a subset of features with distinct values between two groups. The delta of this subset of radiomics features, characterizing changes from the earlier time to the later one, was included as a covariate to build a prediction model using support vector machines with a cubic polynomial kernel function. The model was evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Forty radiomics features were selected based on consistent correlation values of approximately 0 for the necrosis group and >0.2 for the progression group. In performing the 10-fold cross-validation, we narrowed this number down to 11 delta radiomics features for the model. This 11-delta-feature model showed an overall prediction accuracy of 83.1%, with a true positive rate of 58.8% in predicting necrosis and 90.7% for predicting tumor progression. The area under the curve for the prediction model was 0.79. Conclusion: These delta radiomics features extracted from MR scans showed potential for distinguishing radiation necrosis from tumor progression. This tool may be a useful, noninvasive means of determining the status of an enlarging lesion after radiosurgery, aiding decision-making regarding surgical resection versus conservative medical management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Ignition of THKP and TKP Pyrotechnic Powders: Incorporating Reactive Chemical Processes into Predictive Models

We have conducted Simultaneous Thermogravimetric Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometry (STMBMS) experiments on igniter/actuator pyrotechnic powders to characterize the reactive processes controlling the ignition and combustion behavior of these materials. The experiments showed a complex, interactive reaction manifold involving over ten reaction pathways. A reduced dimensionality reaction manifold was developed from the detailed 10-step manifold and is being incorporated into existing predictive modeling codes to simulate the performance of pyrotechnic powders for NW component development. The results from development of the detailed reaction manifold and reduced manifold are presented. The reduced reaction manifold has been successfully used by SNL/NM modelers to predict thermal ignition events in small-scale testing, validating our approach and improving the capability of predictive models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1996

Predictive Modeling of Cardiac Ischemia

The goal of the Contextual Alarms Management System (CALMS) project is to develop sophisticated models to predict the onset of clinical cardiac ischemia before it occurs. The system will continuously monitor cardiac patients and set off an alarm when they appear about to suffer an ischemic episode. The models take as inputs information from patient history and combine it with continuously updated information extracted from blood pressure, oxygen saturation and ECG lines. Expert system, statistical, neural network and rough set methodologies are then used to forecast the onset of clinical ischemia before it transpires, thus allowing early intervention aimed at preventing morbid complications from occurring. The models will differ from previous attempts by including combinations of continuous and discrete inputs. A commercial medical instrumentation and software company has invested funds in the project with a goal of commercialization of the technology. The end product will be a system that analyzes physiologic parameters and produces an alarm when myocardial ischemia is present. If proven feasible, a CALMS-based system will be added to existing heart monitoring hardware.

Anderson, Gary T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distributed output-feedback model predictive control for multi-agent consensus

We introduce a distributed output-feedback model predictive control approach for achieving consensus among multiple agents. Each agent computes a distributed control action based on an output-feedback measurement of a local neighborhood tracking error and communicates information only to its neighbors, according to a communication network modeled as a directed graph. Each agent computes its distributed control action by solving a local min–max optimization problem that simultaneously computes a local state estimate and control input under worst-case assumptions on unmeasured input disturbances and measurement noise. Under easily verified controllability and observability assumptions, this distributed output-feedback model predictive control approach provides an upper bound on the group consensus error, thereby ensuring practical consensus in the presence of unmeasured disturbances and noise. A numerical example with four agents connected in a directed graph is demonstrated to illustrate the results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Controlling bimetallic nanostructures by the microemulsion method with subnanometer resolution using a prediction model

In this study, we present a theoretical model to predict the atomic structure of Au/Pt nanoparticles synthesized in microemulsions. Excellent concordance with the experimental results shows that the structure of the nanoparticles can be controlled at sub-nanometer resolution simply by changing the reactants concentration. The results of this study not only offer a better understanding of the complex mechanisms governing reactions in microemulsions, but open up a simple new way to synthesize bimetallic nanoparticles with ad-hoc controlled nanostructures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. state-level electric vehicle operation

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as clean alternatives to conventional vehicles for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ground transportation. However, the battery undergoes a sophisticated degradation process during EV operations and its effects on EV energy consumption and GHG emissions are unknown. Here we show on a typical 24 kWh lithium-manganese-oxide–graphite battery pack that the degradation of EV battery can be mathematically modeled to predict battery life and to study its effects on energy consumption and GHG emissions from EV operations. We found that under US state-level average driving conditions, the battery life is ranging between 5.2 years in Florida and 13.3 years in Alaska under 30% battery degradation limit. The battery degradation will cause a 11.5–16.2% increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions per km driven at 30% capacity loss. This study provides a robust analytical approach and results for supporting policy making in prioritizing EV deployment in the U.S.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS1989

Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

Petersen, Ralph A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) - Medication Impacts on Physiologic Models for Exploration Class EVA Predictive Modeling and Operations

EVA and Environmental Physiology Laboratory (EEPL) wanted to expand upon the previous CSRM Physiologic Map to visually demonstrate the impact of medications on various modeling inputs that map to the seven physiologic models. It is acknowledged various physiologic states present during EVA could impact drug pharmacokinetics (i.e. pressure changes, core body temperature), which could impact pharmacodynamics. However, that is outside the scope of this document. The medications below represent the authors’ assumption of what medications will be available and able to impact an Artemis EVA and do not include the full ISS formulary, a final Artemis medical kit, or additional personal medications for individual crewmember’s chronic medical conditions.

Emma Ives↗
NASA NTRS2009

Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators

An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.

Howerton, Brian M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Closing the loop: model-predictive control for a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

This article presents a model-predictive controller (MPC) for the maximization of the energy efficiency of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system. CCRO is a process for producing drinking water that is based on a cyclic operation with the following two phases: (a) filtration and (b) drain. In this article, we test model predictive control for optimal control of this process. The most important features of our approach are as follows: (a) the selection of a model structure that enables reliable forecasts of the filtration phase (up to 3 h), (b) an on-line model calibration strategy that ensures model forecast reliability, and (c) the satisfaction of equipment safety and operational constraints on the selected setpoints. We challenge this through deliberate introduction of changes in the unmeasured feed concentration and the applied constraints. Our results indicate that frequent model parameter updates are critical to maintain model reliability for MPC purposes. In addition, we illustrate that parameter identifiability is not guaranteed and that deliberate variation in flow rates is necessary even though the process never operates in steady state. Finally, MPC can compute flow rate setpoints that maximize the energy efficiency of the CCRO process while satisfying the applicable equipment and safety constraints.

closed-circuit reverse osmosis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Additively Manufactured Compliant Hybrid Gas Thrust Bearing for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbomachinery: Experimental Evaluation and Fluid–Structure Model Predictions

This paper presents rotating test results and advances an analytical predictive fluid–structure model for a new type of gas-lubricated thrust bearing fabricated using direct metal laser melting. The bearing concept in this study is a compliant hybrid gas thrust bearing that uses external pressurization to increase load carrying capacity, where the testing campaign in this study was only focused on steady-state static performance. The need for the bearing concept comes from enabling highly efficient supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) turbomachinery by replacing oil-lubricated bearings with process gas lubrication. Leveraging the process gas of the turbomachine for bearing lubrication results in lowered bearing power loss, simplified mechanical design, and allows for novel oil-free hermetic drivetrains resulting in an efficient emission-free system. The new concept utilizes hydrostatic pressurization on individual tilting pads flexibly mounted with hermetic squeeze film dampers (HSFDs). This paper focuses on rotating tests of a 173 mm outer diameter gas thrust bearing in air up to 10 krpm and hydrostatic inlet pressures to 365 psi (2.52 MPa). The influence of thrust runner speed and bearing inlet pressure on force deflection characteristics and load carrying capability of the gas film were experimentally evaluated. This work also advances a predictive fluid–structure thrust bearing model using an isothermal ideal-gas-based compressible Reynolds flow equation directly coupled to a lumped stiffness element possessing axial and rotational degrees-of-freedom. The rotating testing demonstrated load capability of 1816 lbs (8.1 kN), which equates to a thrust bearing unit load of 67 psi (0.46 MPa). Gas film force–deflection curves reveal a nonlinear relationship between thrust load and film clearance. Comparison of film thickness values with the predictive model show good agreement under high load and inlet pressure, however deviate as load and pressure decrease. Load capability was shown to increase with increasing hydrostatic inlet pressure, while the increase in thrust runner speed revealed a small decrease in load capacity.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS1976

Atmospheric analysis and prediction model development, volume 1

A set of hemispheric atmospheric analysis and prediction models was designed and tested. All programs were executed on either a 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere. Parameters for objective analysis included sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and twelve levels (from 1,000 to 100 millibars) of temperatures, heights, and winds. Stratospheric extensions (up to 10 millibars) were also provided. Four versions of a complex atmospheric prediction model, based on primitive equations, were programmed and tested. These models were executed on either the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 grid, using either five or ten computational layers. The coarse-mesh (63 x 63) models were tested using real data for the period 21-23 April 1976. The fine-mesh (187 x 187) models were debugged, but insufficient computer resources precluded production tests. Preliminary test results for the 63 x 63 models are provided. Problem areas and proposed solutions are discussed.

Kesel, P. G.↗