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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

FLOWERS AEP: An Analytical Model for Wind Farm Layout Optimization

Annual energy production (AEP) is commonly used in objective functions for wind farm layout optimization. AEP is proportional to wind farm power production integrated over an annual distribution of free-stream wind conditions. Physics-based estimates of wind farm power production typically rely on low-fidelity engineering wake models that approximate the steady-state wind farm flow field. AEP estimates are then obtained by performing independent simulations for discrete wind conditions and using rectangular quadrature to account for each condition's expected frequency of occurrence. Depending on the number of simulated discrete wind conditions, this numerical integral could be hampered by poor accuracy or high computational costs. The FLOWERS AEP model instead poses an analytical integral of the engineering wake model over the variable wind conditions, yielding a closed-form, analytical function for wind farm AEP. This paper derives the analytical functions for FLOWERS AEP and its derivatives with respect to turbine position, which are useful for gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, in nondimensional form. We then analyze the benefits of the FLOWERS AEP model over conventional reference models, focusing on its low cost, adequate wake loss predictions, and smooth design space. Although the FLOWERS approach is found to predict the exact value of AEP with some error relative to the reference model (within 14% on average), it dramatically reduces computation time by an order of magnitude, produces a qualitatively similar design space at relatively low resolution, and yields comparable optimal layouts. This significant speed improvement is critical in layout optimization applications, where determining an optimal layout in an efficient manner is more important than precise AEP prediction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution Grid Modeling Using Smart Meter Data

The knowledge of distribution grid models, including topologies and line impedances, is essential for grid monitoring, control and protection. However, such information is often unavailable, incomplete or outdated. The increasing deployment of smart meters (SMs) provides a unique opportunity to tackle this issue. This paper proposes a two-stage framework for distribution grid modeling using SM data. In the first stage, the network topology is identified by reconstructing a weighted Laplacian matrix of distribution networks. In the second stage, a least absolute deviations (LAD) regression model is developed for estimating line impedance of a single branch based on the nonlinear (inverse) power flow model, wherein a conductor library is leveraged to narrow down the solution space. The LAD regression model is originally a mixed-integer nonlinear program whose continuous relaxation is still non-convex. Furthermore, we specially address its convex relaxation and discuss the exactness. The modified regression model is then embedded within a bottom-up sweep algorithm to achieve the identification across the network in a branch-wise manner. Numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus, 37-bus and 69-bus test feeders validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helioseismic Measurements of Convective Power in Solar Cycle 24

Constraining the parameters under which convection in the solar interior operates has important implications for describing how energy is transported by plasma motions, and various physical models have been employed to provide some theoretical estimates on the expected power spectrum. Past attempts to measure the convective power distributed among large spatial scales have, however, found differing and incompatible values. Here, we present measurements of the convective power spectrum in the upper convection zone for Carrington rotations in Solar Cycle 24 obtained from the helioseismic signal corresponding to East-West flows. We also perform calibration on synthetic data using the global acoustic GALE code to make assessments of the flow velocities at various length scales without the need for performing inversions. This allows us to derive the convective power spectrum from the flow maps and to compare with the results from the raw travel times. These results are compared against predictions of convective power in global models of convection produced by the EULAG code. Finally, we show how the steps in our analysis procedure (for example data segmentation, filtering, etc.) affect our estimates of the convective power by comparing with the synthetic data from the GALE code.

Heliophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimates of the Economic Impacts of Long-Duration, Widespread Power Disruptions in Puerto Rico

A typical electricity customer in Puerto Rico experienced nearly 27 hours of power interruptions in 2023–with many customers experiencing extremely long duration outages during a single event (i.e., greater than one month). This project involved conducting state-of-the-art surveying to assess the direct costs of power outages occurring across Puerto Rico, developing customer-specific models to estimate future costs over varying outage durations, and comparing these estimates to FEMA’s Value of Unit Service for Electricity. We estimate that a territory-wide power outage may cost customers $\$1$, $\$5$ and $\$29$ billion during one-, 14-, and 30-day interruptions, respectively. However, these are lower-bound estimates because our study focused on direct economic costs and, by necessity, did not fully incorporate (1) indirect impacts to the economy; (2) costs to repair or replace damaged utility infrastructure; and (3) the broader societal consequences including increased morbidity- and mortality-related costs. The information contained in this study can be used to estimate the direct economic value of past or proposed investments in power system resilience. We conclude with a discussion of this study’s limitations and suggest additional research to improve stakeholder understanding of the impacts of power outages across Puerto Rico.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index a(f(sub i)) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GQ proton flux at energies below 1013 eV. Two procedures for estimating a(f(sub i)), referred as (1) the method of moments, and (2) maximum likelihood, are developed and their statistical performance compared. I concluded that the maximum likelihood procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistic estimation procedure for estimating a1. The maximum likelihood procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic ray detector because they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Consumer-Oriented Energy Use and Range Metrics for Battery Electric Vehicles

The present study was motivated by a need to expand information for consumers offered through the FuelEconomy.Gov website. To that end, a power-based modeling approach has been used to examine the effect of steady-speed driving on estimated range for model year 2020 – 2023 battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This approach allowed rapid study of a broader range of BEV models than could be accomplished through vehicle tests. Publicly accessible certification test results and other data were used to perform a regression between cycle-average tractive power requirements and the resulting electrical power. Importantly, this regression enabled estimation of electric power and energy use over a range of steady highway speeds. These analyses in turn allowed projection of vehicle range at differing speeds. The projections agree within 6% with available 65 MPH manufacturer test data. Analyses of vehicles from model years 2020 – 2023 show that the 5-cycle range and energy use values from the window stickers of new vehicles are reasonable values for steady-speed driving at 65 MPH. Range decreases by a median value of approximately 15% for each 10 MPH increase in speed. The 5-cycle energy use (in kW-Hr / 100 miles) and energy economy (in miles / kW-Hr) derived from the 5-cycle energy use are reasonable estimates for 65 MPH steady speed driving. Energy economy decreases by about 0.5 miles / kW-Hr for every 10 MPH increase in speed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1987

RSMASS: A simple model for estimating reactor/shield masses

A comparison was completed of the reactor/shield masses obtained from detailed calculations by the proposers of space power reactors. This comparison included a variety of liquid metal cooled, gas cooled and thermionic reactors. An initial goal for agreement between RSMASS (reactor/shield mass model) calculated masses and the masses obtained from detailed calculations was chosen to be a factor of 2. The preliminary comparison demonstrated that the reactor/shield masses estimated by RSMASS agree with the masses obtained from detailed calculations within 50 percent. It can be concluded that RSMASS can provide good estimates of reactor/shield masses for a broad variety of reactor concepts proposed for MMW space power applications. RSMASS is being used to compare the masses of various reactor types and is providing some insights into the mass advantages and disadvantages for the various concepts as a function of operating conditions and reactor or shield parameters. Some mass estimates obtained with RSMASS are presented.

Marshall, Albert C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Nonstationary Transient Vibroacoustic Response of a Beam Structure

This study consists of an investigation into the nonstationary transient response of the Verification Test Article (VETA) when subjected to random acoustic excitation. The goal is to assess excitation models that can be used in the design of structures and equipment when knowledge of the structure and the excitation is limited. The VETA is an instrumented cantilever beam that was exposed to acoustic loading during five Space Shuttle launches. The VETA analytical structural model response is estimated using the direct averaged power spectral density and the normalized pressure spectra methods. The estimated responses are compared to the measured response of the VETA. These comparisons are discussed with a focus on prediction conservatism and current design practice.

Caimi, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Statistical Method for Reducing Sidelobe Clutter for the Ku-Band Precipitation Radar on Board the GPM Core Observatory

A statistical method to reduce the sidelobe clutter of the Ku-band precipitation radar (KuPR) of the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on board the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory is described and evaluated using DPR observations. The KuPR sidelobe clutter was much more severe than that of the Precipitation Radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and it has caused the misidentification of precipitation. The statistical method to reduce sidelobe clutter was constructed by subtracting the estimated sidelobe power, based upon a multiple regression model with explanatory variables of the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of surface, from the received power of the echo. The saturation of the NRCS at near-nadir angles, resulting from strong surface scattering, was considered in the calculation of the regression coefficients.The method was implemented in the KuPR algorithm and applied to KuPR-observed data. It was found that the received power from sidelobe clutter over the ocean was largely reduced by using the developed method, although some of the received power from the sidelobe clutter still remained. From the statistical results of the evaluations, it was shown that the number of KuPR precipitation events in the clutter region, after the method was applied, was comparable to that in the clutter-free region. This confirms the reasonable performance of the method in removing sidelobe clutter. For further improving the effectiveness of the method, it is necessary to improve the consideration of the NRCS saturation, which will be explored in future work.

Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena; Precipitation; Obs↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Comparison of Lunar Sample Return Options

Returning lunar samples to earth is a high priority for NASA in order to better understand Lunar Geology, Lunar formation, and potential resource utilization. Core samples of frozen volatiles from permanently shadowed regions are sought after, but require intensive cryogenic cooling to preserve. Returning samples to Earth using the Orion capsule is restrictive for moderate amounts of mass/volume and thus alternate means of transport are investigated in this paper. The trade-space of potential options includes varying: sample mass amount, sample containment conditions, transfer path from Lunar surface to Earth surface, and various vehicle system trades. An integrated solver is applied with parametric estimators and known system heuristics to effectively estimate size, mass, and power of various subsystems. Modeled subsystems include sample containment, EDL technologies(heat shield, parachute, recovery), power, thermal, avionics, structures, and propulsive systems. Transfer path options include various trajectory options, transfer methods, staging points, and vehicle staging options. A Design of Experiments was conducted to explore the tradespace, to identify sensitivities, and to identify promising designs. Results are detailed for various stakeholder objectives including total mass, sample mass, science return, architecture impacts, and operational flexibility.

Lunar outpost↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing the power of weak lensing data with multipole-based intrinsic alignment estimators

ABSTRACT It has long been known that galaxy shapes align coherently with the large-scale density field. Characterizing this effect is essential to interpreting measurements of weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light from distant galaxies by matter overdensities along the line of sight, as it also produces coherent galaxy alignments that we wish to interpret in terms of a cosmological model. Existing direct measurements of intrinsic alignments using galaxy samples with high-quality shape and redshift measurements typically use well-understood but sub-optimal projected estimators, which do not make good use of the information in the data when comparing those estimators to theoretical models. We demonstrate a more optimal estimator, based on a multipole expansion of the correlation functions or power spectra, for direct measurements of galaxy intrinsic alignments. We show that even using the lowest order multipole alone increases the significance of inferred model parameters using simulated and real data, without any additional modelling complexity. We apply this estimator to measurements of parameters of the non-linear alignment model using data from the Sloan Digital Sky survey, demonstrating consistent results with a factor of ∼2 greater precision in parameter fits to intrinsic alignments models. This result is functionally equivalent to quadrupling the survey area, but without the attendant costs – thereby demonstrating the value in using this new estimator in current and future intrinsic alignments measurements using spectroscopic galaxy samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index al is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 100 TeV, with a transition at kink energy Ek to a steeper spectral index a2>al above Ek. The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power System Recovery Coordinated with (Non-)Black-Start Generators

Power restoration is an urgent task after a black-out, and recovery efficiency is critical when quantifying system resilience. Multiple elements should be considered to restore the power system quickly and safely. This paper proposes a recovery model to solve a direct-current optimal power flow (DCOPF) based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Since most of the generators cannot start independently, the interaction between black-start (BS) and non-black-start (NBS) generators must be modeled appropriately. The energization status of the NBS is coordinated with the recovery status of transmission lines, and both of them are modeled as binary variables. Also, only after an NBS unit receives the cranking power through connected transmission lines, will it be allowed to participate in the following system dispatch. The amount of cranking power is estimated as a fixed proportion to the maximum generation capacity. The proposed model is validated on several test systems, as well as a 1393-bus representation system of the Puerto Rican electric power grid. Test results demonstrate how the recovery of NBS units and damaged transmission lines can be optimized, resulting in an efficient and well-coordinated recovery procedure.

Zhao, Meng↗
NASA NTRS1991

Mass properties survey of solar array technologies

An overview of the technologies, electrical performance, and mass characteristics of many of the presently available and the more advanced developmental space solar array technologies is presented. Qualitative trends and quantitative mass estimates as total array output power is increased from 1 kW to 5 kW at End of Life (EOL) from a single wing are shown. The array technologies are part of a database supporting an ongoing solar power subsystem model development for top level subsystem and technology analyses. The model is used to estimate the overall electrical and thermal performance of the complete subsystem, and then calculate the mass and volume of the array, batteries, power management, and thermal control elements as an initial sizing. The array types considered here include planar rigid panel designs, flexible and rigid fold-out planar arrays, and two concentrator designs, one with one critical axis and the other with two critical axes. Solar cell technologies of Si, GaAs, and InP were included in the analyses. Comparisons were made at the array level; hinges, booms, harnesses, support structures, power transfer, and launch retention mountings were included. It is important to note that the results presented are approximations, and in some cases revised or modified performance and mass estimates of specific designs.

Kraus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2000

Solar Power System Evaluated for the Human Exploration of Mars

The electric power system is a crucial element of any mission for the human exploration of the Martian surface. The bulk of the power generated will be delivered to crew life support systems, extravehicular activity suits, robotic vehicles, and predeployed in situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment. In one mission scenario, before the crew departs for Mars, the ISRU plant operates for 435 days producing liquefied methane and oxygen for ascent-stage propellants and water for crew life support. About 200 days after ISRU production is completed, the crew arrives for a 500-day surface stay. In this scenario, the power system must operate for a total of 1130 days (equivalent to 1100 Martian "sols"), providing 400 MW-hr of energy to the ISRU plant and up to 18 kW of daytime user power. A photovoltaic power-generation system with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage has been under study at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The conceptual power system is dominated by the 4000- m2 class photovoltaic array that is deployed orthogonally as four tent structures, each approximately 5 m on a side and 100-m long. The structures are composed of composite members deployed by an articulating mast, an inflatable boom, or rover vehicles, and are subsequently anchored to the ground. Array panels consist of thin polymer membranes with thin-film solar cells. The array is divided into eight independent electrical sections with solar cell strings operating at 600 V. Energy storage is provided by regenerative fuel cells based on hydrogen-oxygen proton exchange membrane technology. Hydrogen and oxygen reactants are stored in gaseous form at 3000 psi, and the water produced is stored at 14.7 psi. The fuel cell operating temperature is maintained by a 40-m2 deployable pumped-fluid loop radiator that uses water as the working fluid. The power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture features eight independent, regulated 600-Vdc channels. Power management and distribution power cables use various gauges of copper conductors with ethylene tetrafluoroethylene insulation. To assess power system design options and sizing, we developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict detailed power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled the requisite Mars surface environments: solar insolation, Sun angles, dust storms, dust deposition, and thermal and ultraviolet radiation. Using this code, trade studies were performed to assess performance and mass sensitivities to power system design parameters (photovoltaic array geometry and orientation) and mission parameters (landing date and landing site latitude, terrain slope, and dust storm activity). Mission analysis cases were also run. Power results are shown in this graph for an analysis case with a September 1, 2012, landing date; 18.95 North latitude landing site; two seasonal dusts storms; and tent arrays. To meet user load requirements and the ISRU energy requirement, an 8-metric ton (MT) power system and 4000-m2 photovoltaic array area were required for the assumed advanced CuInS2 thin-film solar cell technology. In this figure, the top curve is the average daytime photovoltaic array power, the middle curve is average daytime user load power, and the bottom curve is nighttime power. At mission day 1, daytime user power exceeds 120 kW before falling off to 80 kW at the end of the mission. Throughout the mission, nighttime user power is set to the nighttime power requirement. In this analysis, "nighttime" is defined as the 13- to 15-hr period when array power output is below the daytime power requirement. During dust storms, power system capability falls off dramatically so that by mission day 900, a daily energy balance cannot be maintained. Under these conditions, the ISRU plant is placed in standby mode, and the regenerative fuel cell energy storage is gradually discharged to meet user loads.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A TOPAS model for lens-based proton radiography

Abstract Objective. Proton Radiography can be used in conjunction with proton therapy for patient positioning, real-time estimates of stopping power, and adaptive therapy in regions with motion. The modeling capability shown here can be used to evaluate lens-based radiography as an instantaneous proton-based radiographic technique. The utilization of user-friendly Monte Carlo program TOPAS enables collaborators and other users to easily conduct medical- and therapy- based simulations of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The resulting transport model is an open-source Monte Carlo package for simulations of proton and heavy ion therapy treatments and concurrent particle imaging. Approach. The four-quadrupole, magnetic lens system of the 800-MeV proton beamline at LANSCE is modeled in TOPAS. Several imaging and contrast objects were modelled to assess transmission at energies from 230–930 MeV and different levels of particle collimation. At different proton energies, the strength of the magnetic field was scaled according to βγ, the inverse product of particle relativistic velocity and particle momentum. Main results. Materials with high atomic number, Z, (gold, gallium, bone-equivalent) generated more contrast than materials with low-Z (water, lung-equivalent, adipose-equivalent). A 5-mrad collimator was beneficial for tissue-to-contrast agent contrast, while a 10-mrad collimator was best to distinguish between different high-Z materials. Assessment with a step-wedge phantom showed water-equivalent path length did not scale directly according to predicted values but could be mapped more accurately with calibration. Poor image quality was observed at low energies (230 MeV), but improved as proton energy increased, with sub-mm resolution at 630 MeV. Significance. Proton radiography becomes viable for shallow bone structures at 330 MeV, and for deeper structures at 630 MeV. Visibility improves with use of high-Z contrast agents. This modality may be particularly viable at carbon therapy centers with accelerators capable of delivering high energy protons and could be performed with carbon therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time Simulation Model of a Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Energy Storage System with Power Electronics Integration

This paper presents a real-time (RT) model of a 20 kW multi-stack vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) system including power electronics converters in a single real-time framework. Implemented on a Typhoon HIL 604 device, this model is designed to simulate the operation of the flow battery with system-level controls. To provide a realistic overview of a VRFB system, the model incorporates a closed-loop control system for managing the speeds of two centrifugal pumps and an electro-thermal model of the battery stacks, enabling realtime temperature estimation. Furthermore, a two-stage power electronics topology and associated control solution are presented, operating with distinct strategies for interfacing the battery model with the main grid and a local load. Results from simulations demonstrate that the VRFB model is well suited for RT environment, and system can manage power during both charging and discharging cycles, while a SCADA monitor is used to display critical variables for safe, efficient, and reliable operation of the VRFB systems.

Rezende Da Costa Reis Kimpara, Renata [ORNL] (ORCI↗