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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Understanding and Improving Model Representation of Aerosol Optical Properties for a Chinese Haze Event Measured During KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM2.5, often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m2 g−1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (f(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm−3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm−3) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

Pablo E. Saide↗
DOE OSTI2019

The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production

Machine learning is frequently applied in the wind energy industry to build statistical models of wind farm power production using atmospheric data as input. In the field of wind power forecasting, in particular, there has been substantial research into finding the best-performing learning algorithms that improve model predictions. Overlooked in the literature, however, is the influence of atmospheric turbulence and stability measurements in improving model predictions. It has been well-established through observations and physical models that these effects can have considerable influence on wind farm power production; yet consideration of these effects in statistical models is almost entirely absent from the literature. In this work, we examine the impact of atmospheric turbulence and stability inputs on statistical model predictions of wind farm power output. Hourly observations from a wind farm in the Pacific Northwest United States located in very complex terrain are used. Five common learning algorithms and nine atmospheric variables are considered, five of which represent some measure of turbulence or stability. Here, we find a considerable improvement in hourly power predictions when some measure of turbulence or stability is included in the model. In particular, turbulent kinetic energy was found to be the most important variable apart from wind speed and more important than wind direction, pressure, and temperature. By contrast, the choice of learning algorithm is shown to be relatively less important in improving predictions. Based on this work, we recommend that turbulence and stability variables become standard inputs into statistical models of wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Irradiance Nowcasting Case Studies near Sacramento

The Sun4Cast solar power forecasting system, designed to predict solar irradiance and power generation at solar farms, is composed of several component models operating on both the nowcasting (0–6 h) and day-ahead forecast horizons. The different nowcasting models include a statistical forecasting model (StatCast), two satellite-based forecasting models [the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Nowcast (CIRACast) and the Multisensor Advection-Diffusion Nowcast (MADCast)], and a numerical weather prediction model (WRF-Solar). It is important to better understand and assess the strengths and weaknesses of these short-range models to facilitate further improvements. To that end, each of these models, including four WRF-Solar configurations, was evaluated for four case days in April 2014. For each model, the 15-min average predicted global horizontal irradiance (GHI) was compared with GHI observations from a network of seven pyranometers operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) in California. Each case day represents a canonical sky-cover regime for the SMUD region and thus represents different modeling challenges. The analysis found that each of the nowcasting models perform better or worse for particular lead times and weather situations. StatCast performs best in clear skies and for 0–1-h forecasts; CIRACast and MADCast perform reasonably well when cloud fields are not rapidly growing or dissipating; and WRF-Solar, when configured with a high-spatial-resolution aerosol climatology and a shallow cumulus parameterization, generally performs well in all situations. Further research is needed to develop an optimal dynamic blending technique that provides a single best forecast to energy utility operators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Coordinated and Cooperative Voltage Control for Systems With High Penetration of PV

In this paper, we propose a predictive coordinated and cooperative voltage control method in a power distribution system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. First, an integrated coordinated voltage control of voltage regulators (VRs) tap positions and cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output from PV inverters are used to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Next, solar power forecasting is applied to predict voltage changes, which are used to set the VR tap positions and capacitor switch status to prevent large voltage fluctuations. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is then achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on a modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high penetration of PVs using real measurement data and compared with the base case. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated voltage control, as well as the enhancement from the predictive control through solar power forecasting-enabled voltage change estimates. Comparison to previous work in the literature shows significant improvement in terms of voltage deviation and reduction in excessive tap changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Investigation of model parameters for high-resolution wind energy forecasting: case studies over simple and complex terrain

We report that wind power forecasting, turbine micrositing, and turbine design require high-resolution simulations of atmospheric flow. Case studies at two West Coast North American wind farms, one with simple and one with complex terrain, are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both synoptically and locally driven events that include some ramping are considered. The performance of the model with different grid nesting configurations, turbulence closures, and grid resolutions is investigated through comparisons with observation data. For the simple terrain site, no significant improvement in the simulation results is found when using higher resolution. In contrast, for the complex terrain site, there is significant improvement when using higher resolution, but only during the locally driven event. This suggests the possibility that computational resources could be spared under certain conditions, for example when the topography is adequately resolved at coarser resolutions. Physical parameters such as soil moisture have a very large effect, but mostly for the locally forced events for both simple and complex terrain. The effect of the PBL scheme choice varies significantly depending on the meteorological forcing and terrain. On average, prognostic TKE equation schemes perform better than non-local eddy viscosity schemes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Generating wind power scenarios for probabilistic ramp event prediction using multivariate statistical post-processing

Wind power forecasting is gaining international significance as more regions promote policies to increase the use of renewable energy. Wind ramps, large variations in wind power production during a period of minutes to hours, challenge utilities and electrical balancing authorities. A sudden decrease in wind-energy production must be balanced by other power generators to meet energy demands, while a sharp increase in unexpected production results in excess power that may not be used in the power grid, leading to a loss of potential profits. In this study, we compare different methods to generate probabilistic ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model with up to 12h of lead time at two tall-tower locations in the United States. We validate model performance using 21 months of 80m wind speed observations from towers in Boulder, Colorado, and near the Columbia River gorge in eastern Oregon. We employ four statistical post-processing methods, three of which are not currently used in the literature for wind forecasting. These procedures correct biases in the model and generate short-term wind speed scenarios which are then converted to power scenarios. This probabilistic enhancement of HRRR point forecasts provides valuable uncertainty information of ramp events and improves the skill of predicting ramp events over the raw forecasts. We compute Brier skill scores for each method with regard to predicting up- and down-ramps to determine which method provides the best prediction. We find that the Standard Schaake shuffle method yields the highest skill at predicting ramp events for these datasets, especially for up-ramp events at the Oregon site. Increased skill for ramp prediction is limited at the Boulder, CO, site using any of the multivariate methods because of the poor initial forecasts in this area of complex terrain. These statistical methods can be implemented by wind farm operators to generate a range of possible wind speed and power scenarios to aid and optimize decisions before ramp events occur.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Recursive Blind Forecast Against API and Baseline: A Puerto Rican Case Study on Solar Irradiance for Normal and Extreme Weather

This paper leverages ongoing work in a community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico to forecast global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and compare performance in normal and extreme weather. Given a positive correlation of 0.98 between GHI and PV power, forecasting GHI can be an effective, indirect forecast of photovoltaic (PV) power, especially in microgrids where the end-users, owners, operators, or other stakeholders are reluctant to share data for training or validation due to privacy and security concerns. A recursive one-shot (termed as "blind") forecast is, hence, formulated, wherein a gradient-boosted regression tree (GBR) is built to forecast GHI for a 7-day horizon in normal weather, and a 2-day horizon in extreme weather. To demonstrate its resilience, the architecture is trained on normal and hurricane weather GHI from 2002-2022. It is generalized on February 9-16, 2023, and on the landfall of Hurricane Nicole (Nov 4-5, 2022), respectively. Forecasts from GBR are compared against that from a satellite-based API resource and three baselines: persistence, averaging, and exponential smoothing. Results show GBR and persistence outperform sophisticated API in both types of weather for this case study.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Many of these power plants have spatiotemporal coherence that can be utilized for improving model accuracy. We have demonstrated in this paper the FAIRification of spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. Going further, we have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of St-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The ongoing growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Through access to a large number of time series data sets from different power plants, we have found common issues that impede the modeling process. Namely, the time series data are hard to transfer between groups due to differences in variable nomenclature, and the quality of the data sets can vary. We address the issue of variable nomenclature by FAIRifying spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. We have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. With access to large time series data sets across many power plants, we can utilize spatiotemporal coherence between the sites in order to improve the quality of our data. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of Spatiotemporal-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use Probabilistic Forecasts in Reliable and Economic Electricity Market Scheduling and Operations

The value of probabilistic forecasts in electricity market operations is being increasingly recognized lately, however, the use is still limited. This study demonstrates two cases of using probabilistic forecasts in scheduling and operations of the California electricity market. We first develop a data-driven method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping reserves based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. By using forecasts across multiple sites, our proposed method presents advantages over the real-world baseline in terms of system reliability and economics. Our second case uses probabilistic hydro power forecasts in the scheduling of a hydro power plant under economic and environmental constraints. By optimizing the bids into both the day-ahead and real-time markets, our results demonstrate considerable economic benefits.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data and code repository for "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?"

There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In the study "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?", we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 50% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales. This repository includes all the data and codes we use for analyses in this study. Users may use them to reproduce the results of this study on their end.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comparative Study of Standards for Grid-Connected Wind Power Plant in China and the U.S.

The rapid deployment of wind power has made grid integration and operational issues focal points in industry discussions and research. Compliance with grid connection standards for wind power plants (WPP) is crucial to ensuring the safe and stable operation of the electric power grid. The standards for grid-connected WPPs in China and the United States are compared in this paper to facilitate further improvements to the standards and enhance the development of wind power equipment. Detailed analyses in power quality, low-voltage ride-through capability, active power control, reactive power control, voltage control, and wind power forecasting are provided to enhance the understanding of grid codes in the two largest markets of wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Standards and Technical Requirements of Grid-Connected Wind Power Plants in China and the United States

The rapid deployment of wind power has made grid integration and operational issues focal points in industry discussions and research. Compliance with grid connection standards for wind power plants (WPPs) is crucial to ensuring the reliable and stable operation of the electric power grid. This report compares the standards for grid-connected WPPs in China to those in the United States to facilitate further improvements in wind power standards and enhance the development of wind power equipment. Detailed analyses of power quality, low-voltage ride-through capability, active power control, reactive power control, voltage control, and wind power forecasting are provided to enhance the understanding of grid codes in the two largest markets of wind power. This study compares WPP interconnection standards and technical requirements in China to those in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗