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Accelerating the development of a sustainable bioenergy portfolio through stable isotopes

Bioenergy could help limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels while supplying almost a fourth of the world's renewable energy needs by 2050. However, the deployment of bioenergy raises concerns that adoption at meaningful scales may lead to unintended negative environmental consequences. Meanwhile, the full consolidation of a bioenergy industry is currently challenged by a sufficient, resilient, and resource-efficient biomass supply and an effective conversion process. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of how stable isotope approaches have accelerated the development of a robust bioeconomy by advancing knowledge about environmental sustainability, feedstock development, and biological conversion. We show that advances in stable isotope research have generated crucial information to (1) gain mechanistic insight into the potential of bioenergy crops to mitigate climate change as well as their impact on water and nutrient cycling; (2) develop high-yielding, resilient feedstocks that produce high-value bioproducts in planta; and (3) engineer microbes to enhance feedstock conversion to bioenergy products. Further, we highlight knowledge gaps that could benefit from future research facilitated by stable isotope approaches. We conclude that advances in mechanistic knowledge and innovations within the field of stable isotopes in cross-disciplinary research actions will greatly contribute to breaking down the barriers to establishing a robust bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Snowmass 2021 cross frontier report: Dark matter complementarity

The fundamental nature of Dark Matter is a central theme of the Snowmass 2021 process, extending across all frontiers. In the last decade, advances in detector technology, analysis techniques and theoretical modeling have enabled a new generation of experiments and searches while broadening the types of candidates we can pursue. Over the next decade, there is great potential for discoveries that would transform our understanding of dark matter. In the following, we outline a road map for discovery developed in collaboration among the frontiers. A strong portfolio of experiments that delves deep, searches wide, and harnesses the complementarity between techniques is key to tackling this complicated problem, requiring expertise, results, and planning from all Frontiers of the Snowmass 2021 process.

Boveia, Antonio [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, O↗

Resilience Assessment: Cape Cod National Seashore

The NPS partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in 2019 to develop resilience plans at specific high-risk parks as well as a resilience planning guide to inform resilience planning decisions by NPS and other federal land management agencies. The purpose of this project is to further examine the vulnerability of coastal park infrastructure specific to energy, communications, transportation, and water systems, for future operational resilience across the NPS portfolio. Leveraging previously compiled vulnerability assessments and renewable energy analyses, NREL has completed resilience plans at specific high-risk pilot parks to serve as a foundation for more comprehensive assessments and resilience planning activities. This report is a summary of the efforts at Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO), which outlines the methodology used and the results of the analysis, with the intention of serving as a case study for other parks interested in replicating the process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dark Matter Complementarity (Snowmass 2021 Cross Frontier Report: Extended Version)

The fundamental nature of Dark Matter is a central theme of the Snowmass 2021 process, extending across all frontiers. In the last decade, advances in detector technology, analysis techniques and theoretical modeling have enabled a new generation of experiments and searches while broadening the types of candidates we can pursue. Over the next decade, there is great potential for discoveries that would transform our understanding of dark matter. In the following, we outline a road map for discovery developed in collaboration among the frontiers. A strong portfolio of experiments that delves deep, searches wide, and harnesses the complementarity between techniques is key to tackling this complicated problem, requiring expertise, results, and planning from all Frontiers of the Snowmass 2021 process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

TCR Input to NUREG-1537 Process for Advanced Nuclear Technologies Derived from Additive Manufacturing

There has been a renewed interest by several advanced reactor developers to use NUREG-1537 “Guidelines for Preparing and Reviewing Applications for the Licensing of Non-Power Reactors” as a basis for their safety analysis report content and organization. Recently, SHINE Medical Technologies, LLC (SHINE), which is a non-power, Aqueous Homogenous Reactor design radioisotope production facility, received a construction permit based around their NUREG-1537 safety evaluation report (ADAMS No. ML16229A140). Advanced reactor developers are interested in using NUREG-1537 as a basis for their safety analysis report content and organization because of its successful application towards research reactors, graded approach, and simplicity in structure and requirements. However, NUREG-1537 is still largely geared toward light water reactors (LWRs) and many improvements could be made or supported through guidance documents for advanced reactors. For nuclear power to play a role in the future zero-carbon energy portfolio, a supportive regulatory structure is needed to lower regulatory uncertainty and barriers to deployment. At the time of this report, no such document or pathway exists for advanced nuclear technologies, including those derived from nontraditional technology such as advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and, specifically, additive manufacturing. This report will explore and provide recommendations as to how advanced nuclear technologies derived from additive manufacturing technologies could employ the use of an ISG, other guidance document, or revisions to NUREG-1537 to lower the regulatory uncertainty and barriers for adoption.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blockchain Research and Development Activities Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and Utility Sector

This article provides an in-depth analysis of blockchain research in the energy sector, focusing on projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and comparing them with industry-funded initiatives. A total of 110 funded activities within the U.S. power industry were successfully tracked and mapped into a newly developed categorization framework. This framework is designed to help research agencies to systematically understand their funded portfolio. Such characterization is expected to help them make effective investments, identify research gaps, measure impact, and advance technological progress to meet national goals. In line with this need, the proposed framework proposes a 2-D categorization matrix to systematically classify blockchain efforts within the energy sector.Under the proposed framework, the Energy System Domain serves as the primary classification dimension, categorizing use cases into 30 distinct applications. The second dimension, Blockchain Properties, captures the specific needs and functionalities provided by Blockchain technology. The aim was to capture blockchain’s applicability and functionality: where and why blockchain? Principles behind the selection of the viewpoint dimensions were carefully defined based on consensus obtained through the Blockchain for Optimized Security and Energy Management (BLOSEM) project. The mapped results show that activities within the Grid Automation, Coordination, and Control (31.8%), Marketplaces and Trading (25.5%), Foundational Blockchain Research (19.1%), and Supply Chain Management (17.3%) domains have been actively pursued to date. The three leading specific use case applications were identified as Transactive Energy Management for Marketplaces and Trading, Asset Management for Supply Chain Management, and Fundamental Blockchain for Foundational Blockchain Research. The Marketplaces and Trading and Retail Services Enablement domains stood out as being favored by industry by a factor greater than 2 (2.3 and 2.6, respectively), yet there seemed to be little to zero investment from DOE. Approximately 76% of the total projects prioritized Immutability, Identity Management, and Decentralization and/or Disintermediation compared to Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization, Automation, and Privacy and/or Anonymity. The greatest discrepancies between DOE and industry were in Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization and Automation. The industry efforts (36% in Asset Digitization/Tokenization and 22% in Automation) was 14 times and 2.4 times, respectively, more intensive than the DOE-sponsored efforts, indicating a significant discrepancy in industry versus government priorities. Overall, quantifying DOE-sponsored projects and industry activities through mapping provides clarity on portfolio investments and opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗

Visolis Microbial Chemical Intermediate Library Screening (CRADA Final Report)

Visolis is developing a commercial process for the bioproduction of a chemical intermediate, towards the derivative production of a portfolio of bio-based chemicals with large application potential, from drop-in commodity chemicals, to innovative specialty chemical offerings, to materials for multiple end markets and industries, which will ultimately benefit consumers and the public. Visolis already has several variants of a microbe that produce the chemical intermediate at distinct levels (i.e. high, medium, and low). They are currently pursuing transcriptomics analysis for some of these strains, towards a better understanding of the biology behind what makes certain strains perform better than others. There exist genome-scale library approaches for the microbe that could be used to screen gene disruption, overexpression, or repression candidates for perturbations to the production of the chemical intermediate. These approaches often reveal opportunities for further production improvement that are not otherwise accessible using hypothesis-driven metabolic engineering approaches. However, Visolis, while it could generate or procure such genome-scale libraries, does not have the automated strain engineering workflows required to screen thousands of variants, obtaining a production phenotype and a genotype for each. The purpose of this collaboration is to use LBNL and SNL capabilities to enable Visolis to effectively screen thousands of genome-scale library strain variants for phenotype/genotype relationships that will complement Visolis’ transcriptomic investigations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ECP Software Technology Capability Assessment Report

The Exascale Computing Project Software Technology (ECP ST) focus area represents the key bridge between Exascale systems and the scientists developing applications that will run on those platforms. ECP offers a unique opportunity to build a coherent set of software (often referred to as the "software stack") that will allow application developers to maximize their ability to write highly parallel applications, targeting multiple Exascale architectures with runtime environments that will provide high performance and resilience. But applications are only useful if they can provide scientific insight, and the unprecedented data produced by these applications require a complete analysis work ow that includes new technology to scalably collect, reduce, organize, curate, and analyze the data into actionable decisions. This requires approaching scientific computing in a holistic manner, encompassing the entire user workflow - from conception of a problem, setting up the problem with validated inputs, performing high-fidelity simulations, to the application of uncertainty quantification to the final analysis. The software stack plan defined here aims to address all of these needs by extending current technologies to Exascale where possible, by performing the research required to conceive of new approaches necessary to address unique problems where current approaches will not suffice, and by deploying high-quality and robust software products on the platforms developed in the Exascale systems project. The ECP ST portfolio has established a set of interdependent projects that will allow for the research, development, and delivery of a comprehensive software stack,

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep Design Data Portal (D3P) v0.01

The Deep Design Data Portal (D3P) tool was developed to demonstrate how readily accessible data sources, such as building energy model reports for design and baseline energy performance data for projects, can provide the data required for reporting to an industry initiative (AIA 2030 commitment), as well as more detailed data that makes the industry dataset more valuable to all stakeholders, enabling project level analysis and analysis of BEM industry trends. D3P provides an easier and less time-consuming way for firms to auto-extract data from this data source, compared to the current reporting workflows of the firms. The BEM reports are the first of several data sources that D3P could integrate. D3P also provides the ability for firms to review, compare, and evaluate the performance of their projects to not only their portfolio, but also to the larger anonymized industry dataset created each time a project is added to D3P. The intent of D3P is to become part of a data-sharing ecosystem to assist creating large anonymized industry datasets that are accessible to industry.

Regnier, Cynthia [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗