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DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Body Mass Variation in an Introduced Wild Pig Population with Changing Ancestry

Total body mass variation was studied in a single wild pig (Sus scrofa) population that originated from three introductions of varying ancestry. Body mass data from 12,257 wild pigs collected over more than five decades were analyzed for differences due to the effects of sex, age class, reproductive status, season, and historic subpopulation groupings. Total body mass data from this population averaged 38 kg and ranged from 0.511 to 189 kg. The overall observed range of body mass data was consistent with previous studies. Very heavy individuals (i.e., >150 kg) made up only a small percentage of the overall population. Males were significantly larger than females, being on average 1.09 times heavier. This significant sexual dimorphic difference was seen in all but the piglet age class. This percent dimorphic difference increased with age. Body mass variation and overlap between the age classes also increased with age. Males were more variable than females within the same age class. The study area’s wild pigs were on average born at slightly less than one percent of their adult body mass. Percent weight gain toward the adult body mass increased with age and was slightly greater in females than in males. In contrast, absolute weight gain between age classes was greater in males. Pregnant sows were significantly heavier than non-pregnant females in all age class comparisons; however, this difference decreased with age. There was a seasonal shift in body mass with age, with younger age classes being heaviest in the fall-winter period and the older age classes being heaviest in spring-summer. Having originated from different ancestral stocks, two major subpopulations of wild pigs on the study area differed significantly in body mass in all sex and age class comparisons. The SRS wild pig population showed a decrease in body mass during the 1990s that was significant. This change may have been the result of both ancestral and population density variation, as well as unspecified environmental factors

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Travel Patterns and Characteristics of Elderly Population in New York State: 2017 Update

According to US Census Bureau, the elderly population (individuals 65 years and older) has grown by over a third during the past decade (2010 to 2019), and by 3.2% from 2018 to 2019. It is essential for policymakers and planners to understand transportation issues associated with the elderly to meet their increasing travel demands. These issues include transportation and mobility of the elderly population, factors impacting their travel behavior, and transportation safety. In this study, Oak Ridge National Laboratory was tasked by the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) to conduct a detailed examination of travel behaviors and identify patterns and trends of its elderly residents. The National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) was used as the primary data source to analyze subjects and address questions such as: Are there differences in traveler demographics between the elderly population and those of younger age groups who live in various New York State (NYS) regions, e.g., New York City (NYC), other urban areas of NYS, or other parts of the country? How do they compare with the population at large? Are there any regional differences (e.g., urban versus rural)? Do any unique travel characteristics or patterns exist within the elderly group? How did these patterns change over time? In addition to the analysis of NHTS data, roadway travel safety concerns associated with elderly travelers were also investigated. Specifically, data on crashes involving the elderly (including drivers, passengers, and pedestrians) as captured in the Fatal Analysis Reporting System database was analyzed to examine elderly drivers and elderly pedestrian travel safety issues in NYS. This study report provides a summary of travel behavior and social-demographic characteristics of NYS elderly residents. These statistics could be used to examine equity issue concerning elderly New Yorkers, as well as to evaluate how well their mobility needs are being met. With a deeper understanding of issues and needs that this special population group is facing, policymakers and transportation planners would be able to make informed decisions on transportation investments and design services that could better address them.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying Whitemouth Croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) Populations along the Rio de Janeiro Coast, Brazil, through Microsatellite and Otolith Analyses

The inshore area of the Southwestern Atlantic between 22 °S and 29 °S (South Brazilian Bight) is a transitional climatic zone, where the tropical and warm temperate provinces mix. In its northern part, i.e., in the coastal waters of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, local oceanographic conditions, such as upwelling in the north, and great bays with different degrees of anthropogenic influences in the center and south can determine the population structure of several fish stocks. The Whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) is one the most heavily exploited fishing resources in this area, but there are still some doubts about its population structure. In this study, through combined analyses using nuclear genetic markers and morphological and geochemical signatures of otoliths, a divergence of individuals between two populations was identified using microsatellites, while a finer spatial structure with three populations (north, center and south, respectively) was found based on otolith shapes and elemental signatures. This regional population structure may have direct implications for rational fisheries management and conservation of the species.

Franco, Taynara Pontes (ORCID:0000000167381096)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Blanco DECam Bulge Survey (BDBS). VII. Multiple Populations in Globular Clusters of the Galactic Bulge

We present photometric evidence for multiple stellar populations (MPs) in 14 globular clusters (GCs) toward the southern Galactic bulge. The photometric data come as part of the Blanco DECam Bulge Survey, which is a deep, wide-field near-UV-near-IR (ugrizY) survey of the southern Galactic bulge. Here, we present the first systematic study of bulge GC multiple populations with deep photometry including the u band, which is a crucial indicator of the abundance of CNO-bearing molecules in stellar atmospheres. We identify cluster members using Gaia EDR3 proper motion measurements, and then isolate red giant branch stars using r versus u - r color–magnitude diagrams. We find evidence suggesting all 14 clusters host at least two populations, and NGC 6441, NGC 6626, and NGC 6656 appear to have at least three populations. Many of these clusters are not part of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) surveys nor do they have comprehensive spectroscopic analyses so we are presenting the first evidence of MPs in several clusters. Not only do we find a strong anticorrelation between the fraction of first-generation stars and cluster absolute V magnitude, but the correlation coefficient and cluster-to-cluster scatter are similar to the results obtained from HST. Our ground-based data extend to much larger radial distances than similar HST observations, enabling a reliable estimate of the global fraction of first-generation stars in each cluster. This study demonstrates that ground-based u-band photometry as provided by DECam will prove powerful in the study of multiple populations in resolved GCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Populations in Groups and Clusters: Evidence for a Characteristic Stellar Mass Scale at M * ~ 10 9.5 M ⊙

We use the DR9 of the DESI legacy imaging survey and SDSS galaxy groups to measure the conditional luminosity function (CLF) for groups with halo mass Mh ≥ 10 12 M ⊙ and redshift 0.01 ≤ z ≤ 0.08, down to a limiting r-band magnitude of M r = –10 to –12. For given halo masses we measure the CLF for the total populations and for the red and blue populations classified using the (g – z) color. We find a clear faint-end upturn in the CLF of red satellites, with a slope α ≈ –1.8, which is almost independent of halo mass. This faint-end upturn is not seen for the blue and total populations. Our stellar population synthesis modeling shows that (g – z) provides a clean red/blue division and that red group galaxies defined by (g – z) are all dominated by old stellar populations. The fraction of old galaxies as a function of galaxy luminosity shows a minimum at M r ~ –18, corresponding to M * ~ 10 9.5 M ⊙ . This scale is independent of halo mass and is comparable to the characteristic luminosity at which galaxies show a dichotomy in surface brightness and size, suggesting that the dichotomy in the old fraction and in galaxy structure may have a common origin. The rising of the old fraction at the faint end for Milky Way (MW)–sized halos is in good agreement with the quenched fraction measured for the MW/M31 system and from the ELVES survey. We discuss the implications of our results for the formation and evolution of low-mass galaxies and for the stellar mass functions of low-mass galaxies to be observed at high redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Population III Supernovae Determined the Properties of the First Galaxies

Abstract Massive Population III stars can die as energetic supernovae that enrich the early Universe with metals and determine the properties of the first galaxies. With masses of about 10 9 M ⊙ atz≳ 10, these galaxies are believed to be the ancestors of the Milky Way. This paper investigates the impact of Population III supernova remnants (SNRs) from both Salpeter-like and top-heavy initial mass functions (IMFs) on the formation of first galaxies with high-resolution radiation-hydrodynamical simulations with theENZOcode. Our findings indicate that SNRs from a top-heavy Population III IMF produce more metals, leading to more efficient gas cooling and earlier Population II star formation in the first galaxies. From a few hundred to a few thousand Population II stars can form in the central regions of these galaxies. These stars have metallicities of 10 −3 –10 −2 ,Z ⊙ , greater than those of extremely metal-poor (EMP) stars. Their mass function follows a power-law distribution with dN ( M * ) / dM * ∝ M * α , whereM * is stellar mass, andα= 2.66–5.83 and is steeper for a top-heavy IMF. We thus find that EMP stars were not typical of most primitive galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vibrational population distributions in nonequilibrium nozzle expansion flows

Experimental measurements and theoretical calculations of the vibrational population distribution in nonequilibrium nozzle expansion flows of gas mixtures are reported. These studies were directed toward determining whether vibrational energy exchange pumping could lead to laser action on the vibrational bands of a diatomic molecule. Three different types of experiments were conducted. These showed (1) that vibrational energy was preferentially transferred from N2 to CO in supersonic nozzle flows containing these gases; (2) that under some conditions this vibrational energy exchange pumping mechanism created population inversions in the vibrational levels of CO; and (3) that at large expansion ratios the magnitude of these population inversions was sufficient to sustain lasing in the nozzle. A theoretical model was developed to calculate vibrational state population distributions in gas dynamic expansions of a mixture of diatomic gases. Although only isothermal calculations have been completed, these data indicate that population inversions are predicted for conditions similar to those obtained in the nozzle expansion flows.

Watt, W. S.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Collisional evolution of asteroids - Populations, rotations, and velocities

The collisional evolution of various initial populations of asteroids is simulated numerically and compared with the present asteroid size-frequency distribution to find those populations which collisionally relax to the present belt. Both orbital and size distributions are treated, as well as the simultaneous evolution of two collisionally interacting populations with different physical properties. If the initial belt distribution was a power law, the initial belt population at the time when the present high-collision speed was established was probably only modestly larger than the present population. However, other distributions allow a more massive early belt. The rotational evolution due to collisions of asteroids with power-law distributions is also examined and compared with observations, leading to conclusions generally in agreement with those of size evolution. The high-collision speed in the present belt is likely due to Jupiter. Gravitational stirring by massive Jupiter-scattered planetesimals or secular resonances sweeping through the belt are the most probable mechanisms.

Davis, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The hidden ion population of the magnetosphere

The presence of a cold ion population in the magnetosphere which is normally hidden from particle detector observation by the positive charging of the spacecraft is reported. Ion and electron data were obtained from particle detectors on the ATS 6 and SCATHA satellites designed to measure the 1-eV to 80-keV plasma population. The cold, isotropic ion population, with temperature 1 eV and density 10-100/cu cm, was detected only when the spacecraft were in eclipse, when spacecraft potential had dropped from +10 V in sunlight to +4 to +5 V. The hidden ion population was found at geosynchronous altitude only during geomagnetically quiet times and when there has been an absence of geomagnetic activity for several hours, and appears to coexist with the plasma sheet. More consistent measurements of the cold ion population at midnight or at other local times would require the biasing of the ion detector with respect to the spacecraft, or the controlling of spacecraft potential.

Olsen, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Study and Estimation of Planet-crossing Asteroid Populations: Discoveries and Analysis

The populations of the various classes of planet-crossing asteroids, based on the results of the systematic Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey (PCAS) search program are evaluated. Knowledge of the populations is crucial to the stimation of lunar and terrestrial planet cratering rates from asteroidal and cometary sources needed to establish the chronology of other surface features on those bodies. A secondary objective is to identify the sources of these crater-forming objects and their relative importance in producing the observed planet-crossing asteroid population. Some key PCAS asteroid discoveries relevant to the population problem and the progress in using the available search data to update and refine earlier estimates of the planet-crossing asteroid population are described.

Helin, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Stellar populations; Proceedings of the Meeting, Baltimore, MD, May 20-22, 1986

Various papers covering recent findings on stellar populations are presented. The topics addressed include: the bulges of the Galaxy and M31, kinematics of the local subdwarfs and the collapse of the Galaxy, the red stellar population of the local group dwarf galaxies, globular clusters in the local group galaxies, the initial mass function, and star formation histories of galactic disks. Also discussed are: yield and abundance constraints on galactic chemical evolution, population synthesis in early type galaxies, the evolution of stellar populations in galaxies, a theoretical perspective on spectral evolution of galaxies, and the structure and kinematics of galaxy populations.

Norman, Colin A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Population II Li-6 as a probe of nucleosynthesis and stellar structure and evolution

We discuss the importance of Population II Li-6 as a diagnostic for models of primordial nucleosynthesis, cosmic-ray nucleosyntheses in the early Galaxy, and the structure and evolution of metal-poor solar-type stars. The observation of Li-6 in the subdwarf HD 84937 is shown to be consistent with the existing Population II LiBeB data within the context of a simple three-component model: (1) standard big bang nucleosynthesis, (2) Population II cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis, (3) standard (nonrotating) stellar LiBeB depletion. If this interpretation is correct, we predict a potentially detectable boron abundance for this star: about 2 x 10 exp -12. Subsequent Population II LiBeB observations, and in particular further observations of Population II Li-6, are shown to be crucial to our understanding of the primordial and early galactic creation and destruction mechanisms for light elements.

Steigman, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1994

Induced population gradients in galaxy merger remnants

We use numerical models to investigate the nature of induced population gradients in merger remnants. As noted by White, we find that the population mixing in stellar-dynamical mergers is rather moderate, leading to metallicity gradients in the remnant that are closely tied to gradients in the progenitor galaxies. Furthermore, the resultant metallicity gradients are poorly fitted by power laws, showing significant nonlinearities within an effective radius. If constant metallicity bulges are added to the progenitor disks, the strong relation between final and initial metallicity gradients is diluted, but the final gradients are still not well fitted by power laws. Detailed studies of the shape of the metallicity gradients in elliptical galaxies should help determine the degree to which stellar-dynamical mergers have contributed to the population of present-day ellipticals. We also consider the effects of centrally concentrated starbursts on metallicity gradients. Using simple models for metallicity enhancement, we find that addition of a metal-rich starburst population can reproduce the magnitude and shape of metallicity gradients observed in elliptical galaxies. However, even in such cases the metallicity gradients in the merger remnant should steepen significantly beyond an effective radius. Modelling such merger-induced starbursts with population synthesis techniques, we find that if the starburst is characterized by solar metallicity, it should be detectable as a bluing of the nuclear regions for several Gyr. However, if the starburst is metal-rich, the reddening effects of higher metallicity makes the broad-band signature of the starburst much more difficult to detect.

Mihos, J. Christopher↗

NASA NTRS1993

The stellar population and luminosity function in M31 bulge and Inner Disk Fields

We report infrared photometry and stellar identifications for stars in five fields in the M31 bulge located from 2 to 11 arcmin from the nucleus. These fields have been chosen such that the bulge/disk star ratio predicted from Kent's (1989) small bulge model varies from 7:1 to 1:5, allowing a study of near pure disk and near pure bulge stellar populations. We reject the hypothesis of Davies et al. (1991) that luminous stars found within 500 pc of the nucleus are due to a contaminating disk population. We find that the bulge contains stars in excess of M(sub bol) = -5 mag and that the bulge luminosity function has a distinct shape different from the disk fields. We find many stars redder than (J-K) = 2 mag, and suggest that these stars may be the counterparts of the IRAS-selected Galactic bulge Miras studied by Whitelock et at. (1991). The number of bright stars (M(sub bol) is less than -5 mag) falls off more rapidly than the r band surface brightness. By building model fields out of a bulge luminosity function and artificial stars, we are able to show that the change in the luminosity function toward the center cannot be explained simply by the mismeasurement of overcrowded star images. However, these tests also raise the possibility that the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) tip may be approximately equal to 1 mag fainter than actually measured in our most crowded field, reaching only M(sub bol) = -5. We compare observed counts of AGB stars with those predicted from theoretical lifetimes using a technique of general interest for this problem, the Fuel Consumption Theorem of Renzini & Buzzoni (1986) Spectral Evolution of Galaxies (Reidel, Dordrecht). Our methodology is generally applicable to the study of other resolved extragalactic stellar populations. The number of observed stars per magnitude up to a luminosity of M(bol) = -5.5 mag is consistent with AGB evolution of the whole population of the innermost bulge field with the standard lifetime on the AGB of 1.3 Myr/mag. We advance the possibility that the bulge of M31 may be younger than the oldest Galactic globular clusters. We note that M33 has recently been found to have an r(exp 1/4)-law spheroid consisting of intermediate-age stars; bulges can form later than the old halo population.

Rich, R. Michael↗

NASA NTRS1995

An extended galactic population of low-luminosity x-ray sources (CVs?) and the diffuse x-ray background

The incompatibility of the properties of the X-ray background (XRB) with active galactic nuclei (AGNs) contributing approximately greater than 60% at energies of a few keV has often been interpreted as being due to a substantial contribution of a new population of yet unrecognized X-ray sources. The existence of such population has been recently suggested also by an analysis of very deep ROSAT observations which revealed a considerable excess of faint X-ray sources over that expected from QSO evolution models, and that the average spectrum of the resolved sources becomes harder with decreasing flux limit. These sources could be extragalactic in origin, but if they make a substantial contribution to the XRB then they must exhibit much weaker clustering than galaxies or QSOs in order to be consistent with the stringent constraints on source clustering imposed by autocorrelation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We investigate the possibility that the indicated new population of X-ray sources is Galactic in origin. Examining spherical halo and thick disk distributions, we derive the allowed properties of such populations which would resolve the discrepancy found in the number counts of faint sources and be consistent with observational constraints on the total background intensity, the XRB anisotropy, the number of unidentified bright sources, the Galaxy's total X-ray luminosity, and with the results of fluctuation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We find that a flattened Galactic halo (or a thick disk) distribution with a scale height of a few kpc is consistent with all the above requirements. The typical X-ray luminosity of the sources is approximately equal to 10(exp 30-31)ergs/s in the 0.5-2 keV band, the number density of sources in the solar vicinity is approximately 10(exp -4.5)pc(exp -3), their total number in the Galaxy is approximately 10(exp 8.5), and their total contribution to the Galaxy's X-ray luminosity is approximately 10(exp 39) ergs/s. We discuss the possible nature of these soures, including their being subdwarfs, low mass x-ray binaries (LMXBs), massive black holes, and old neutron stars. We argue that the inferred X-ray and optical luminosities of these sources, the slope of their energy spectrum, and the derived local number density and spatial distribution are all consistent with their being intrinsically faint cataclysmic variables with low accretion rates. We suggest a few possibilities for the origin of such population, including an origin from disrupted globular clusters or dark clusters. We make predictions and suggest tests that could either confirm or rule out our proposal in the near future.

Maoz, Eyal↗

NASA NTRS1998

Variability in Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population in Cultured Chicken Muscle Cells

Investigations into expression of the beta-adrenergic receptor (bAR) in chicken skeletal muscle cells in culture were initiated because several beta-adrenergic receptor agonists are known to increase skeletal muscle protein deposition in avian and mammalian species. During initial attempts to study the bAR population on the surface of chicken skeletal muscle cells, we observed a high degree of variability that was later found to be the result of using different batches of horse serum in the cell culture media. The separation between total binding and nonspecific binding in cells grown in two serum samples was approximately two-fold The number of nuclei within multinucleated myotubes was not significantly different in cells grown in the two serum samples. To investigate whether these two sera had an effect on coupling efficiency between bAR population and cAMP production, the ability of these cells to synthesize cAMP was also assessed. Despite the two-fold difference in receptor population, the ability of these cells to synthesize cAMP was not significantly different. Because of the possible link between bAR population and muscle protein, we also determined if the quantity of the major skeletal muscle protein, myosin, was affected by conditions that so drastically affected the bAR population. The quantity of myosin heavy chain was not significantly different.

Young, Ronald B↗