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At least 145 records · Page 8

Floating solar panels on reservoirs impact phytoplankton populations: A modelling experiment

Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) deployments are increasing globally as the switch to renewable energy intensifies, representing a considerable water surface transformation. FPV installations can potentially impact aquatic ecosystem function, either positively or negatively. However, these impacts are poorly resolved given the challenges of collecting empirical data for field or modelling experiments. In particular, there is limited evidence on the response of phytoplankton to changes in water body thermal dynamics and light climate with FPV. Given the importance of understanding phytoplankton biomass and species composition for managing ecosystem services, we use an uncertainty estimation approach to simulate the effect of FPV coverage and array siting location on a UK reservoir. FPV coverage was modified in 10% increments from a baseline with 0% coverage to 100% coverage for three different FPV array siting locations based on reservoir circulation patterns. Results showed that FPV coverage significantly impacted thermal properties, resulting in highly variable impacts on phytoplankton biomass and species composition. The impacts on phytoplankton were often dependent on array siting location as well as surface coverage. Changes to phytoplankton species composition were offset by the decrease in phytoplankton biomass associated with increasing FPV coverage. We identified that similar phytoplankton biomass reductions could be achieved with less FPV coverage by deploying the FPV array on the water body's faster-flowing area than the central or slower flowing areas. The difference in response dependent on siting location could be used to tailor phytoplankton management in water bodies. Simulation of water body-FPV interactions efficiently using an uncertainty approach is an essential tool to rapidly develop understanding and ultimately inform FPV developers and water body managers looking to minimise negative impacts and maximise co-benefits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy performance analysis of smart wall system with switchable insulation and thermal storage capacity

The ever-increasing global energy demand and the issues caused by population growth and unsustainable energy resource usages have several environmental and economic impacts. The on-demand capability of dynamic wall systems with switchable insulation systems can contribute toward energy efficiency and reduced electric cost using "building-as-a-battery." In this paper, the performance of an exterior envelope system that employs a switchable insulation system is investigated. A COMSOL simulation was used to study the envelope performance under three switchable insulation locations in the wall system. The on and off switching cycle included insulating or conducting the exterior, interior, or both sides of the mass wall system. To validate the simulation work, an experimental test was conducted in climate chamber on a 4 × 8 in. wall system with identical wall components used in the COMSOL simulation. Results show a good agreement between the experiment and simulation results. The wall system with switchable insulation placed on the exterior side provided the highest interior inward heat flux when compared with the interior or split insulation. Also, an exterior switchable insulation system in addition to a thermal mass maintained a positive heat flow for more hours when the outdoor temperature was lower than the interior temperature.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

Impact of Variable Gas Mixtures on Bubble Size Distribution and Mass Transfer in Gas Fermentation Reactors

Gas fermentation has emerged as a promising new technology for the generation of fuels and chemicals from mixtures of greenhouse and energy rich gas streams (CO2/CH4/H2/CO) via microbial bioreaction. Example pathways include biomethanation (CO2/H2 to CH4), biogas upgrading, CO fermentation and wet-waste conversion. Effective Gas-liquid mass-transfer is an important physical phenomenon that determines the design and scale-up of these systems. There is currently a knowledge-gap regarding bubble-size distributions when using a mixture of gases with vastly different properties, which can have a significant impact on overall mass-transfer. For example, hydrogen bubbles are more buoyant compared to other relatively heavier gases (CO2/CH4/CO), resulting in a large distribution of residence times and bubble sizes. This work therefore develops a deeper understanding of bubble dynamics and interphase mass transfer in such heterogenous gas mixtures through well-resolved computational models. We use a detailed multiphase computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) model to study the impact of gas-mixtures on overall mass-transfer in bubble column and air-lift reactors. The CFD tool previously developed by the authors (1) for simulating aerobic fermentation reactors at scale is used in this study. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum, energy, and species transport equations are solved for interpenetrating gas and liquid phase in this model. We use a population balance-based bubble-size-distribution model that is validated against small-scale experiments in our solver. Results pertaining to multiple simulations of gas-fermentation reactors are presented where gas mixtures with varying compositions of CO2/CH4/CO/H2 are imposed at the sparger boundaries. The spatio-temporal variations in bubble-size distribution and mass transfer coefficient is analyzed for varying superficial velocities and gas-compositions for varying sizes of bubble-column and airlift reactors.

BIOMASS FUELS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Population Genomic Analyses Reveal Connectivity via Human-Mediated Transport across Populus Plantations in North America and an Undescribed Subpopulation of Sphaerulina musiva

Domestication of plant species has affected the evolutionary dynamics of plant pathogens in agriculture and forestry. A model system for studying the consequences of plant domestication on the evolution of an emergent plant disease is the fungal pathogen Sphaerulina musiva. This ascomycete causes leaf spot and stem canker disease of Populus spp. and their hybrids. A population genomics approach was used to determine the degree of population structure and evidence for selection on the North American population of S. musiva. In total, 122 samples of the fungus were genotyped identifying 120,016 single-nucleotide polymorphisms after quality filtering. In North America, S. musiva has low to moderate degrees of differentiation among locations. Three main genetic clusters were detected: southeastern United States, midwestern United States and Canada, and a new British Columbia cluster (BC2). Population genomics suggest that BC2 is a novel genetic cluster from central British Columbia, clearly differentiated from previously reported S. musiva from coastal British Columbia, and the product of a single migration event. Phenotypic measurements from greenhouse experiments indicate lower aggressiveness of BC2 on Populus trichocarpa. In summary, S. musiva has geographic structure across broad regions indicative of gene flow among clusters. The interconnectedness of the North American S. musiva populations across large geographic distances further supports the hypothesis of anthropogenic-facilitated transport of the pathogen.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Biological mechanisms may contribute to soil carbon saturation patterns

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a key strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 , yet SOC pools often appear to saturate, or increase at a declining rate, as carbon (C) inputs increase. Soil C saturation is commonly hypothesized to result from the finite amount of reactive mineral surface area available for retaining SOC, and is accordingly represented in SOC models as a physicochemically determined SOC upper limit. However, mineral-associated SOC is largely microbially generated. In this perspective, we present the hypothesis that apparent SOC saturation patterns could emerge as a result of ecological constraints on microbial biomass—for example, via competition or predation—leading to reduced C flow through microbes and a reduced rate of mineral-associated SOC formation as soil C inputs increase. Microbially explicit SOC models offer an opportunity to explore this hypothesis, yet most of these models predict linear microbial biomass increases with C inputs and insensitivity of SOC to input rates. Synthesis of 54 C addition studies revealed constraints on microbial biomass as C inputs increase. Different hypotheses limiting microbial density were embedded in a three-pool SOC model without explicit limits on mineral surface area. As inputs increased, the model demonstrated either no change, linear, or apparently saturating increases in mineral-associated and particulate SOC pools. Taken together, our results suggest that microbial constraints are common and could lead to reduced mineral-associated SOC formation as input rates increase. We conclude that SOC responses to altered C inputs—or any environmental change—are influenced by the ecological factors that limit microbial populations, allowing for a wider range of potential SOC responses to stimuli. Understanding how biotic versus abiotic factors contribute to these patterns will better enable us to predict and manage soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near-infrared mapping of spiral barred galaxies

In external galaxies, near-infrared emission originates from stellar populations, hot dust, free-free emission from H+ regions, gaseous emission, non-thermal nucleus if any. Because of the low extinction compared to the visible, infrared wavelengths are useful to probe regions obscured by dust such as central parts where starburst phenomena can occur because of the large quantity of matter. The results presented were obtained with a 32 x 32 InSb charge injection device (CID) array cooled at 4K, at the f/36 cassegrain focus of the 3m60 Canada-France-Hawaii telescope with a spatial resolution of 0.5 inches per pixel. The objects presented are spiral barred galaxies mapped at J(1.25 microns), H(1.65 microns) and K(2.2 microns). The non-axisymetric potential due to the presence of a bar induces dynamical processes leading to the confinement of matter and peculiar morphologies. Infrared imaging is used to study the link between various components. Correlations with other wavelengths ranges and 2-colors diagrams ((J-H), (H-K)) lead to the identification of star forming regions, nucleus. Maps show structures connected to the central core. The question is, are they flowing away or toward the nucleus. Observations of M83 lead to several conclusions. The star forming region, detected in the visible and the infrared cannot be very compact and must extend to the edge of the matter concentration. The general shape of the near-infrared emission and the location of radio and 10 micron peaks suggest the confinement of matter between the inner Linblad resonances localized from CO measurements about 100 and 400 pc. The distribution of color indices in the arc from southern part to the star forming region suggests an increasing amount of gas and a time evolution eventually triggered by supernova explosions. Close to the direction of the bar, a bridge-like structure connects the arc to the nucleus with peculiar color indices. Perhaps, this structure can be linked to a height velocity component seen in UV and we can attribute it to a jet and/or a matter flow along the bar toward the nucleus, fuelling it. NGC 1068 is the nearest Seyfert 2 galaxy. It has been a subject of many studies at all wavelengths. This object was mapped at J, H, K, L and M, and in polaro-imagery. Results are given.

Gallais, P.↗

Exhaust Nozzle Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Test Results for Isolated Nozzles

Reducing or eliminating the operational restrictions of supersonic aircraft over populated areas has led to extensive research at NASA. Restrictions were due to the disturbance of the sonic boom, caused by the coalescence of shock waves formed off the aircraft. Recent work has been performed to reduce the magnitude of the sonic boom N-wave generated by airplane components with focus on shock waves caused by the exhaust nozzle plume. Previous Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis showed how the shock wave formed at the nozzle lip interacts with the nozzle boat-tail expansion wave. An experiment was conducted in the 1- by 1-ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center to validate the computational study. Results demonstrated how the nozzle lip shock moved with increasing nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) and reduced the nozzle boat-tail expansion, causing a favorable change in the observed pressure signature. Experimental results were presented for comparison to the CFD results. The strong nozzle lip shock at high values of NPR intersected the nozzle boat-tail expansion and suppressed the expansion wave. Based on these results, it may be feasible to reduce the boat-tail expansion for a future supersonic aircraft with under-expanded nozzle exhaust flow by modifying nozzle pressure or nozzle divergent section geometry.

Castner, Raymond S.↗

The Chemical Composition and Gas-to-Dust Mass Ratio of Nearby Interstellar Matter

We use recent results on interstellar gas toward nearby stars and interstellar by-products within the solar system to select among the equilibrium radiative transfer models of the nearest interstellar material presented in Slavin & Frisch. For the assumption that O/H - 400 parts per million, models 2 and 8 are found to yield good fits to available data on interstellar material inside and outside of the heliosphere, with the exception of the Ne abundance in the pickup ion and anomalous cosmic-ray populations. For these models, the interstellar medium (ISM) at the entry point to the heliosphere has n(H(sup 0)) = 0.202-0.208/cu cm, n(He(sup 0) = 0.0137-0.0152/cu cm, and ionizations X(H) = 0.29-0.30, X(He) = 0.47-0.51. These best models suggest that the chemical composition of the nearby ISM is approx.60%-70% subsolar if S is undepleted. Both H(0) and H(+) need to be included when evaluating abundances of ions found in warm diffuse clouds. Models 2 and 8 yield an H filtration factor of approx.0.46. Gas-to-dust mass ratios for the ISM toward epsilon CMa are R(sub gd) = 178-183 for solar abundances of Holweger or R(sub gd) = 611-657 for an interstellar abundance standard 70% solar. Direct observations of dust grains in the solar system by Ulysses and Galileo yield R(sub gd) appr0x. 115 for models 2 and 8, supporting earlier results (Frisch and coworkers). If the local ISM abundances are subsolar, then gas and dust are decoupled over small spatial scales. The inferred variation in R(sub gd) over parsec length scales is consistent with the fact that the ISM near the Sun is part of a dynamically active cluster of cloudlets flowing away from the Sco-Cen association. Observations toward stars within approx.500 pc show that R(sub gd) correlates with the percentage of the dust mass that is carried by iron, suggesting that an Fe-rich grain core (by mass) remains after grain destruction. Evidently large dust grains (>10(exp -13) g) and small dust grains (<10(exp -13) g) are not well mixed over parsec length spatial scales in the ISM. It also appears that very small C-dominated dust grains have been destroyed in the ISM within several parsecs of the Sun, since C appears to be essentially undepleted. However, if gas-dust coupling breaks down over the cloud lifetime, the missing mass arguments applied here to determine R(sub gd) and dust grain mineralogy are not appropriate.

Frisch, Priscilla C.↗

Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Estes, Maurice G.↗

The Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment and Plasma Source Instrument

The Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) and the Plasma Source Instrument (PSI) have been developed in response to the requirements of the ISTP Program for three-dimensional (3D) plasma composition measurements capable of tracking the circulation of low-energy (0-500 eV) plasma through the polar magnetosphere. This plasma is composed of penetrating magnetosheath and escaping ionospheric components. It is in part lost to the downstream solar wind and in part recirculated within the magnetosphere, participating in the formation of the diamagnetic hot plasma sheet and ring current plasma populations. Significant obstacles which have previously made this task impossible include the low density and energy of the outflowing ionospheric plasma plume and the positive spacecraft floating potentials which exclude the lowest-energy plasma from detection on ordinary spacecraft. Based on a unique combination of focusing electrostatic ion optics and time of flight detection and mass analysis, TIDE provides the sensitivity (seven apertures of about 1 cm squared effective area each) and angular resolution (6 x 18 degrees) required for this purpose. PSI produces a low energy plasma locally at the POLAR spacecraft that provides the ion current required to balance the photoelectron current, along with a low temperature electron population, regulating the spacecraft potential slightly positive relative to the space plasma. TIDE/PSI will: (a) measure the density and flow fields of the solar and terrestrial plasmas within the high polar cap and magnetospheric lobes; (b) quantify the extent to which ionospheric and solar ions are recirculated within the distant magnetotail neutral sheet or lost to the distant tail and solar wind; (c) investigate the mass-dependent degree energization of these plasmas by measuring their thermodynamic properties; (d) investigate the relative roles of ionosphere and solar wind as sources of plasma to the plasma sheet and ring current.

Moore, T. E.↗

Masses and Luminosities of X-Ray Binaries

Using SIM, we will perform narrow-angle observations of several X-ray binaries to determine their orbits, and we will observe about 50 X-ray binary systems in wide-angle mode to measure their distances and proper motions. Sources with mass estimates for the compact component of greater than 3 solar masses are generally called black hole candidates since this mass is above the theoretical neutron star limit. Narrow-angle observations of these sources provide a direct test of the dynamical mass estimates on which the black hole evidence is based. Better measurements of the black hole masses will provide constraints on possible evolutionary paths that lead to black hole formation. When combined with X-ray data, mass measurements may provide additional constraints on the black hole spin. Precise mass determinations of neutron star systems can address the question of whether neutron stars can be significantly more massive than 1.4 solar masses, which would eliminate soft models of the neutron star equations of state. The wide-angle observations will probe the Galactic distribution of X-ray binaries through parallaxes and proper motions. They will also eliminate the uncertainties in the luminosities of individual sources, which is currently up to a full order of magnitude. This will enable more detailed comparisons of X-ray observations to physical models such as advection-dominated accretion flows (ADAFs). We intend to carry out the following measurements: 1) Determine the orbits of two black hole candidates to measure the black hole masses; 2) Obtain precise mass measurements for two neutron star systems to constrain neutron star equations of state; 3) Determine the distances and thus luminosities of selected representatives of various classes of X-ray binaries (black hole candidates, neutron stars, jet sources); 4) In the process of distance determination, proper motions will also be measured, from which the age of the population can be estimated.

Quirrenbach, Andreas↗

Alteration of phycobilisome excitation energy transfer properties in response to attenuations in peripheral electron flow

In Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 ( S . 6803), two types of phycobilisome (PBS) complexes, CpcG-PBS and CpcL-PBS, function to harvest light energy for photosynthetic reaction centers (RCs), photosystem I (PSI) and photosystem II (PSII). The compositional differences between these two forms of PBS and their specificity for RCs have led to suggestions that they may differ in function. To address this question, we examined how PBS-RC interactions, and the transfer of excitation energy from PBS to RCs, might be adjusted under conditions where electron demand and photon availability are modulated. The CpcG-PBS, CpcL-PBS, and RC complexes were isolated from a S . 6803 strain defective in expression of flavodiiron 1 (oxygen reduction reaction 1, ORR1) grown under varied light regimes. The energy transfer preference from CpcL-PBS to either PSI or PSII was investigated by in vitro crosslinking and 77 K fluorescence emission spectroscopy to assess energy transfer efficiency under photoexcitation. While the results demonstrate that the transfer of excitation energy from CpcL-PBS favors PSI over PSII in WT strains as previously shown, the preference of CpcL-PBS switches from PSI to PSII in ORR1 strains. Surprisingly, this change in preference was reproduced when ORR1 CpcL-PBS was crosslinked with WT RCs, or when WT CpcL-PBS was cross-crosslinked with ORR1 RCs, indicating there are physical modifications to both PBS and RCs that mediate the preference switch. In contrast, the analysis with ORR1 CpcG-PBS shows similar preferences to WT. Additionally, PBS populations in ORR1 shifted to a greater proportion of CpcL-PBS relative to CpcG-PBS. These results demonstrate that under conditions where electron utilization changes, there is a tuning of the excitation energy allocation from CpcL-PBS to RCs to manage the energy distribution for photosynthesis under dynamic flux conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗

Models of Small-Scale Patchiness

Patchiness is perhaps the most salient characteristic of plankton populations in the ocean. The scale of this heterogeneity spans many orders of magnitude in its spatial extent, ranging from planetary down to microscale. It has been argued that patchiness plays a fundamental role in the functioning of marine ecosystems, insofar as the mean conditions may not reflect the environment to which organisms are adapted. Understanding the nature of this patchiness is thus one of the major challenges of oceanographic ecology. The patchiness problem is fundamentally one of physical-biological-chemical interactions. This interconnection arises from three basic sources: (1) ocean currents continually redistribute dissolved and suspended constituents by advection; (2) space-time fluctuations in the flows themselves impact biological and chemical processes, and (3) organisms are capable of directed motion through the water. This tripartite linkage poses a difficult challenge to understanding oceanic ecosystems: differentiation between the three sources of variability requires accurate assessment of property distributions in space and time, in addition to detailed knowledge of organismal repertoires and the processes by which ambient conditions control the rates of biological and chemical reactions. Various methods of observing the ocean tend to lie parallel to the axes of the space/time domain in which these physical-biological-chemical interactions take place. Given that a purely observational approach to the patchiness problem is not tractable with finite resources, the coupling of models with observations offers an alternative which provides a context for synthesis of sparse data with articulations of fundamental principles assumed to govern functionality of the system. In a sense, models can be used to fill the gaps in the space/time domain, yielding a framework for exploring the controls on spatially and temporally intermittent processes. The following discussion highlights only a few of the multitude of models which have yielded insight into the dynamics of plankton patchiness. In addition, this particular collection of examples is intended to furnish some exposure to the diversity of modeling approaches which can be brought to bear on the problem. These approaches range from abstract theoretical models intended to elucidate specific processes, to complex numerical formulations which can be used to actually simulate observed distributions in detail.

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Feeding Ten Billion People Is Possible Within Four Terrestrial Planetary Boundaries

Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals by all nations in 2015 is the first ever commitment to a world development path that safeguards the stability of the Earth system as a prerequisite for meeting universal human standards1. The longstanding challenge of achieving food security through sustainable agriculture is particularly acute in this context as world agriculture is a leading cause for the current transgressions of multiple planetary boundaries (PBs) globally and regionally2–5. The PB framework is a comprehensive scientific attempt to synoptically define our planet’s biogeophysical limits to anthropogenic interference. It suggests bounds to nine interacting processes that together delineate a Holocene-like Earth system state. The Holocene is chosen as the reference state as it is the only period known to provide a safe operating space for a world population of several billion people, and according to a precautionary principle, the PBs are set in sufficient distance from processes that may critically undermine Earth system resilience and global sustainability. A challenging question, thus, is whether human development goals such as food security can be met while maintaining multiple PBs along with their subglobal manifestations. Further PB transgressions could jeopardize the chances of providing sufficient food for a world population projected to be wealthier and reach >9 billion by 2050. This conundrum portrays a tradeoff between Earth’s biophysical carrying capacity and humankind’s rising food demand, calling in response for radical rethinking of food production and consumption patterns6–9. Yield gap closures, avoidance of excessive input use, shifts towards less resource-demanding diets, food waste reductions and efficient international trade are crucial options for sustainably increasing the food supply10–15. For example, enhancing water-use efficiency on irrigated and rain-fed farms can triple or quadruple crop yields in low-performing systems, suggesting possible global gains of >20% (ref. 16). Even higher gains appear feasible through globally optimized configurations of the land-use pattern17, and cutting food losses by half could generate food for another billion people18. Thus, collective large-scale implementation of such options could sustain food for a further growing world population19. Yet achieving this within a safe operating space as defined by PBs requires not only a halt to but actually a reversal of existing PB transgressions. Previous studies suggest that such a reconciliation might be possible, but these were based on aggregate representations of PBs (not accounting for the spatial patterns of limits, transgressions and interactions) or considered only one boundary in isolation17,20–23. Here, we systematically quantify to what extent current food production depends on local to global transgressions of the PBs for biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use and nitrogen (N) flows, along with the potential of a range of solutions to avoid these transgressions and still increase food supply (Table 1). To this end, we configured an internally consistent process-based model of the terrestrial biosphere including agriculture (LPJmL) with multiple spatially distributed PBs and their interactions. LPJmL is among the longest-established and best-evaluated biosphere models, showing robust performance regarding simulation of, for example, carbon, water and crop yield dynamics (Supplementary Figs. 1 and 2 and Supplementary Table 1; see ref. 24 for a comprehensive benchmarking and Supplementary Methods for more detail on model evaluations). In principle following established definitions4, we refine the computation of some PBs with respect to their regional patterns and interactions (Methods), providing globally gridded precautionary limits to human interference with the Earth system at a level of great detail. In particular, we account for the evidence that many PBs need to be represented spatially explicitly4 to cover their

Gerten, Dieter↗

The chemical nature of the young 120-Myr-old nearby Pisces–Eridanus stellar stream flowing through the Galactic disc

Recently, a new cylindrical-shaped stream of stars up to 700 pc long was discovered hiding in the Galactic disc using kinematic data enabled by the Gaia mission. This stream of stars, dubbed Pisces–Eridanus (Psc–Eri), was initially thought to be as old as 1 Gyr, yet its stars shared a rotation period distribution consistent with a population that was 120 Myr old. Here, we explore the detailed chemical nature of this stellar stream. We carried out high-resolution spectroscopic follow-up of 42 Psc–Eri stars using McDonald Observatory and combined these data with information for 40 members observed with the low-resolution LAMOST spectroscopic survey. Together, these data enabled us to measure the abundance distribution of light/odd-Z (Li, Na, Al, Sc, V), α (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti), Fe-peak (Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn), and neutron capture (Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Nd, Eu) elements along the Psc–Eri stream. We find that the stream is (1) near-solar metallicity with [Fe/H] = –0.03 dex and (2) has a metallicity spread of 0.07 dex (or 0.04 dex when outliers are excluded). We also find that (3) the abundance of Li indicates that Psc–Eri is ~120 Myr old, consistent with its gyrochronology age. Additionally, Psc–Eri has (4) [X/Fe] abundance spreads that are just larger than the typical uncertainty in most elements, (5) it is a cylindrical-like system whose outer edges rotate about the centre, and (6) no significant abundance gradients along its major axis except a potentially weak gradient in [Si/Fe]. These results show that Psc–Eri is a uniquely close young chemically interesting laboratory for testing our understanding of star and planet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗