Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “polarization selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

X-ray spectra of compact extragalactic radio sources

A comparison is conducted of the 0.1-3.5 keV mean power law energy spectral indices (alpha) measured by the Einstein Observatory IPC for (1) 19 low polarization, flat radio spectrum (FRS) core-dominant QSOs; (2) 12 highly polarized QSOs (HPQs); and (3) 24 radio-selected BL Lac objects. Individual spectral fits are presented for several sources for which results are unavailable elsewhere. A maximum-likelihood analysis was used to ascertain the mean power-law index and the standard deviation for each class, under the assumption of a Gaussian intrinsic distribution. The distributions for HPQ and FRS QSOs are similar, in contrast with a small sample of the X-ray-selected BL Lac objects. Implications of these findings for synchrotron self-Compton models are considered.

Worrall, D. M.↗

The spin vector of Venus determined from Magellan data

A control network of the north polar region of Venus has been established by selecting and measuring control points on full-resolution radar strips. The measurements were incorporated into a least-squares adjustment program that improved initial estimates of the coordinates of the control points, pole direction, and rotation rate of Venus. The current dataset contains 4206 measurements of 606 points on 619 radar strips. The accuracy of the determination is driven by spacecraft ephemeris errors. An accurate estimate of the rotation period of Venus was obtained by applying an ephemeris improvement technique. The second cycle closure orbits improved ephemeris solutions for 40 orbits (376-384, 520-528, 588-592, 658-668, 1002-1010, 1408-1412, 1746-1764, and 2166-2170) are included and fixed in the geodetic control computations, thus trying the network to the J2000 coordinate system.

Davies, M. E.↗

Uncertainty Assessment of Space-Borne Passive Soil Moisture Retrievals

The uncertainty associated with passive soil moisture retrieval is hard to quantify, and known to be underlain by various, diverse, and complex causes. Factors affecting space-borne retrieved soil moisture estimation include: (i) the optimization or inversion method applied to the radiative transfer model (RTM), such as e.g. the Single Channel Algorithm (SCA), or the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), (ii) the selection of the observed brightness temperatures (Tbs), e.g. polarization and incidence angle, (iii) the definition of the cost function and the impact of prior information in it, and (iv) the RTM parameterization (e.g. parameterizations officially used by the SMOS L2 and SMAP L2 retrieval products, ECMWF-based SMOS assimilation product, SMAP L4 assimilation product, and perturbations from those configurations). This study aims at disentangling the relative importance of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty, by carrying out soil moisture retrieval experiments, using SMOS Tb observations in different settings, of which some are mentioned above. The ensemble uncertainties are evaluated at 11 reference CalVal sites, over a time period of more than 5 years. These experimental retrievals were inter-compared, and further confronted with in situ soil moisture measurements and operational SMOS L2 retrievals, using commonly used skill metrics to quantify the temporal uncertainty in the retrievals.

Quets, Jan↗

Platform Evolution Studies

Platform evolution studies have focused on developing two types of platforms: the Geostationary Platform, for use as an observatory in NASA's Mission-to-Planet-Earth (MPE) initiative, and a co-orbiting platform, for use as a branching mechanism for the Space Station Freedom manned base. In 1989, platform evolution efforts also documented existing polar platform scares for servicing and for co-orbiting platform configurations. Shown on this viewgraph are various configurations. An Astrophysics Co-Orbiting Platform was studied during Phase B of the Space Station Program. The Stationkeeping Platform was the subject of a Goddard study. Today we will briefly describe the NASA Polar Platform and discuss the evolutionary configurations for geostationary and co-orbiting platforms. General Electric Astro-Space Division was selected to perform these studies because of its role as designer of the Polar Platform.

Walton, Barbara↗

Spectral analyses, climatology, and interannual variability of Nimbus-7 TOMS version 6 total column ozone

This reference publication presents selected results from space-time spectral analyses of 13 years of version 6 daily global ozone fields from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). One purpose is to illustrate more quantitatively the well-known richness of structure and variation in total ozone. A second purpose is to provide, for use by modelers and for comparison with other analysts' work, quantitative measures of zonal waves 1, 2, 3, and medium-scale waves 4-7 in total ozone. Their variations throughout the year and at a variety of latitudes are presented, from equatorial to polar regions. The 13-year averages are given, along with selected individual years which illustrate year-to-year variability. The largest long wave amplitudes occur in the polar winters and early springs of each hemisphere, and are related to strong wave amplification during major warning events. In low attitudes total ozone wave amplitudes are an order of magnitude smaller than at high latitudes. However, TOMS fields contain a number of equatorial dynamical features, including Rossby-gravity and Kelvin waves.

Stanford, J. L.↗

Identification of lunar rock types and search for polar ice by gamma ray spectroscopy

This paper examines the possibility of mapping the surface composition of the moon from an orbiting spin-stabilized spacecraft, using gamma ray spectroscopy and a cooled germanium solid-state device as a detector. A design for accommodating the germanium detector gamma ray spectrometer was devised, and the detection sensitivity was applied to typical lunar-rock compositions. For sets comprising nine highland and 16 mare types, the most useful elements were found to be Mg, Al, K, Ti, Fe, U, and Th. An analysis of the expected instrument response to the gamma ray and neutron fluxes of water ice indicated that a neutron mode added to the spectrometer will be more sensitive than the gamma ray mode to the possible presence of polar ice. It was calculated that, with a pair of selected neutron absorbers and a model which provides that 2.5 percent of the area above 75-deg latitude is occupied by trapping sites, the instrument will provide a 1-yr mission detection limit of 0.056 percent H2O by weight for each polar region.

Metzger, Albert E.↗

Angular distributions and polarization fractions of helium resonance radiation (n 1P - 1 1S) in the extreme ultraviolet

Angular intensity distributions of helium (n 1P - 1 1S) resonance photons with respect to the exciting electron beam are presented. The angular intensity distributions were measured at selected electron impact energies from 25 eV (near threshold) to 150 eV. Polarization fractions (Pi) were obtained by analyzing the data in terms of the theoretical relation between angular intensity distribution and Pi, i.e. Iota (theta) = Iota (90) (1 - Pi sq cos theta). The experimental values for Pi are compared with recent theoretical results and with previous experimental values for the (3 1P - 2 1S) transition.

Mumma, M. J.↗

Mathematical Model Of Variable-Polarity Plasma Arc Welding

Mathematical model of variable-polarity plasma arc (VPPA) welding process developed for use in predicting characteristics of welds and thus serves as guide for selection of process parameters. Parameters include welding electric currents in, and durations of, straight and reverse polarities; rates of flow of plasma and shielding gases; and sizes and relative positions of welding electrode, welding orifice, and workpiece.

Hung, R. J.↗

Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): SAR Water Body Classification for the Open Data Cube

The detection of inland water bodies from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data provides a great advantage over water detection with optical data, since SAR imaging is not impeded by cloud cover. Traditional methods of detecting water from SAR data involves using thresholding methods that can be labor intensive and imprecise. This paper describes Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): a method of water detection from SAR data which automates and simplifies the thresholding process using machine learning on training data created from Geoscience Australia’s WOFS algorithm. Of the machine learning models tested, the Linear Support Vector Machine was determined to be optimal, with the option of training using solely the VH polarization or a combination of the VH and VV polarizations. WASARD was able to identify water in the target area with a correlation of 97% with WOFS. Sentinel-1, Open Data Cube, Earth Observations, Machine Learning, Water Detection 1. INTRODUCTION Water classification is an important function of Earth imaging satellites, as accurate remote classification of land and water can assist in land use analysis, flood prediction, climate change research, as well as a variety of agricultural applications [2]. The ability to identify bodies of water remotely via satellite is immensely cheaper than contracting surveys of the areas in question, meaning that an application that can accurately use satellite data towards this function can make valuable information available to nations which would not be able to afford it otherwise. Highly reliable applications for the remote detection of water currently exist for use with optical satellite data such as that provided by LANDSAT. One such application, Geoscience Australia’s Water Observations from Space (WOFS) has already been ported for use with the Open Data Cube [6]. However, water detection using optical data from Landsat is constrained by its relatively long revisit cycle of 16 days [5], and water detection using any optical data is constrained in that it lacks the ability to make accurate classifications through cloud cover [2]. The alternative solution which solves these problems is water detection using SAR data, which images the Earth using cloud-penetrating microwaves. Because of its advantages over optical data, much research has been done into water detection using SAR data. Traditionally, this has been done using the thresholding method, which involves picking a polarization band and labeling all pixels for which this band’s value is below a certain threshold as containing water. The thresholding method works since water tends to return a much lower backscatter value to the satellite than land [1]. However, this method can be flawed since estimating the proper threshold is often imprecise, complicated, and labor intensive for the end user. Thresholding also tends to use data from only one SAR polarization, when a combination of polarizations can provide insight into whether water is present. [2] In order to alleviate these problems, this paper presents an application for the Open Data Cube to detect water from SAR data using support vector machine (SVM) classification. 2. PLATFORM WASARD is an application for the Open Data Cube, a mechanism which provides a simple yet efficient means of ingesting, storing, and retrieving remote sensing data. Data can be ingested and made analysis ready according to whatever specifications the researcher chooses, and easily resampled to artificially alter a scene’s resolution. Currently WASARD supports water detection on scenes from ESA’s Sentinel-1 and JAXA’s ALOS. When testing WASARD, Sentinel-1 was most commonly used due to its relatively high spatial resolution and its rapid 6 day revisit cycle [5]. With minor alterations to the application's code, however, it could support data from other satellites. 3. METHODOLOGY Using supervised classification, WASARD compares SAR data to a dataset pre-classified by WOFS in order to train an SVM classifier. This classifier is then used to detect water in other SAR scenes outside the training set. Accuracy was measured according to the following metrics:  Precision: a measure of what percentage of the points WASARD labels as water are truly water  Recall: a measure of what percentage of the total water cover WASARD was able to identify.  F1 Score: a harmonic average of the precision and recall scores Both precision and recall are calculated at the end of the training phase, when the trained classifier is compared to a testing dataset. Because the WOFS algorithm’s classifications are used as the truth values when training a WASARD classifier, when precision and recall are mentioned in this paper, they are always with respect to the values produced by WOFS on a similar scene of Landsat data, which themselves have a classification accuracy of 97% [6]. Visual representations of water identified by WASARD in this paper were produced using the function wasard_plot(), which is included in WASARD. 3.1 Algorithm Selection The machine learning model used by WASARD is the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses a supervised learning algorithm to develop a classifier, meaning it creates a vector which can be multiplied by the vector formed by the relevant data bands to determine whether a pixel in a SAR scene contains water. This classifier is trained by comparing data points from selected bands in a SAR scene to their respective labels, which in this case are “water” or “not water” as given by the WOFS algorithm. The SVM was selected over the Random Forest model, which outperformed the SVM in training speed, but had a greater classification time and lower accuracy, and the Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, which had a slightly higher average accuracy than the SVM, but much greater training and classification times. Figure 1: Visual representation of the SVM Classifier. Each white point represents a pixel in a SAR scene. In Figure 1, the diagonal line separating pixels determined to be water from those determined not to be water represents the actual classification vector produced by the SVM. It is worth noting that once the model has been trained, classification of pixels is done in a similar manner as in the thresholding method. This is especially true if only one band was used to train the model. 3.1 Feature Selection Sentinel-1 collects data from two bands: the Vertical/Vertical polarization (VV) and the Vertical/Horizontal polarization (VH). When 100 SVM classifiers were created for each polarization individually, and for the combination of the two, the following results were achieved: Figure 2: Accuracy of classifiers trained using different polarization bands. Precision and Recall were measured with respect to the values produced by WOFS. Figure 2 demonstrates that using both the VV and VH bands trades slightly lower recall for significantly greater precision when compared with the VH band alone, and that using the VV band alone is inferior in both metrics. WASARD therefore defaults to using both the VV and VH bands, and includes the option to use solely the VH band. The VV polarization’s lower precision compared to the VH polarization is in contrast to results from previous research and may merit further analysis [4]. 3.2 Training a Classifier The steps in training a classifier with WASARD are 1. Selecting two scenes (one SAR, one optical) with the same spatial extents, and acquired close to each other in time, with a preference that the scenes are taken on the same day. 2. Using the WOFS algorithm to produce an array of the detected water in the scene of optical data, to be used as the labels during supervised learning 3. Data points from the selected bands from the SAR acquisition are bundled together into an array with the corresponding labels gathered from WOFS. A random sample with an equal number of points labeled “Water” and “Not Water” is selected to be partitioned into a training and a testing dataset 4. Using Scikit-Learn’s LinearSVC object, the training dataset is used to produce a classifier, which is then tested against the testing dataset to determine its precision and recall The result is a wasard_classifier object, which has the following attributes: 1. f1, recall, and precision: 3 metrics used to determine the classifier’s accuracy 2. Coefficient: Vector which the SVM uses to make its predictions. The classifier detects water when the dot product of the coefficient and the vector formed by the SAR bands is positive 3. Save(): allows a user to save a classifier to the disk in order to use it without retraining 4. wasard_classify(): Classifies an entire xarray of SAR data using the SVM classifier All of the above steps are performed automatically when the user creates a wasard_classifier object. 3.3 Classifying a Dataset Once the classifier has been created, it can be used to detect water in an xarray of SAR data using wasard_classify(). By taking the dot product of the classifier’s coefficients and the vector formed by the selected bands of SAR data, an array of predictions is constructed. A classifier can effectively be used on the same spatial extents as the ones where it was trained, or on any area with a similar landscape. While

Kreiser, Zachary↗

Miniature Ion-Mobility Spectrometer

The figure depicts a proposed miniature ion-mobility spectrometer that would be fabricated by micromachining. Unlike prior ion-mobility spectrometers, the proposed instrument would not be based on a time-of-flight principle and, consequently, would not have some of the disadvantageous characteristics of prior time-of-flight ion-mobility spectrometers. For example, one of these characteristics is the need for a bulky carrier-gas-feeding subsystem that includes a shutter gate to provide short pulses of gas in order to generate short pulses of ions. For another example, there is need for a complex device to generate pulses of ions from the pulses of gas and the device is capable of ionizing only a fraction of the incoming gas molecules; these characteristics preclude miniaturization. In contrast, the proposed instrument would not require a carrier-gas-feeding subsystem and would include a simple, highly compact device that would ionize all the molecules passing through it. The ionization device in the proposed instrument would be a 0.1-micron-thick dielectric membrane with metal electrodes on both sides. Small conical holes would be micromachined through the membrane and electrodes. An electric potential of the order of a volt applied between the membrane electrodes would give rise to an electric field of the order of several megavolts per meter in the submicron gap between the electrodes. An electric field of this magnitude would be sufficient to ionize all the molecules that enter the holes. Ionization (but not avalanche arcing) would occur because the distance between the ionizing electrodes would be less than the mean free path of gas molecules at the operating pressure of instrument. An accelerating grid would be located inside the instrument, downstream from the ionizing membrane. The electric potential applied to this grid would be negative relative to the potential on the inside electrode of the ionizing membrane and would be of a magnitude sufficient to generate a moderate electric field. Positive ions leaving the membrane holes would be accelerated in this electric field. The resulting flux of ions away from the ionization membrane would create a partial vacuum that would draw more of the gas medium through the membrane. The figure depicts a filter electrode and detector electrodes located along the sides of a drift tube downstream from the accelerator electrode. These electrodes would apply a transverse AC electric field superimposed on a ramped DC electric field. The AC field would effect differential transverse dispersal of ions. At a given instant of time, the trajectories of most of the ions would be bent toward the electrodes, causing most of the ions to collide with the electrodes and thereby become neutralized. The DC field would partly counteract the dispersive effect of the AC field, straightening the trajectories of a selected species of ions; the selection would vary with the magnitude of the applied DC field. The straightening of the trajectories of the selected ions would enable them to pass into the region between the detector electrodes. Depending on the polarity of the voltage applied to the detector electrodes, the electric field between the detector electrodes would draw the selected ions to one of these electrodes. Hence, the current collected by one of the detector electrodes would be a measure of the abundance of ions of the selected species. The ramping of the filter- electrode DC voltage would sweep the selection of ions through the spectrum of ionic species.

Hartley, Frank T.↗

Polarization in the Lagoon nebula

A V-band polarimetric survey of stars associated with the Lagoon nebula was conducted. The data were combined with existing photometric and spectroscopic observations in order to investigate the alignment of magnetic field lines with identifiable symmetry axes and to evaluate the nature of dust in the immediate vicinity. Although stars are not in general highly polarized, electric vectors align with the minor axis of the Lagoon nebula, perpendicular to the major axis of the spatial distribution of massive stars. The observations indicate that the collapse of the molecular cloud progenitor was inhibited along directions perpendicular to magnetic field lines. Considering the low polarization efficiency and the high ratio of total to selective extinction, smaller grains of intranebular dust appear to have been destroyed.

Mccall, Marshall L.↗

Radar estimates of soil moisture over the Konza Prairie

Radar-backscatter measurements were made to estimate soil moisture. The helicopter-mounted radar was flown along selected transects that coincided with soil-moisture measurements. The radar operated at microwave frequencies of 5.3 and 9.6 GHz and at selected incidence angles between 0 and 60 degrees. Vertical polarization was used for two days and horizontal polarization was used for three days. The scattering-coefficient data from different days were grouped by frequency and antenna angles and then related to soil moisture along the flight paths using linear regression. A measure of linearity for the regression ranged between 0.9 and 0.5. The larger coefficients were for X-band measurements made at large antenna-incidence angles, and the smaller coefficients were for C-band measurements made at incidences angles near vertical.

Gogineni, S.↗

Diode-laser frequency stabilization based on the resonant Faraday effect

The authors present the results of a method for frequency stabilizing laser diodes based on the resonant Faraday effects. A Faraday cell in conjunction with a polarizer crossed with respect to the polarization of the laser diode comprises the intracavity frequency selective element. In this arrangement, a laser pull-in range of 9 A was measured, and the laser operated at a single frequency with a linewidth less than 6 MHz.

Wanninger, P.↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗

The WISE Satellite Development: Managing the Risks and the Opportunities

NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) MIDEX mission is surveying the entire sky in four infrared bands from 3.4 to 22 micrometers. The WISE instrument consists of a 40 cm telescope, a solid hydrogen cryostat, a scan mirror mechanism, and four 1K x1K infrared detectors. The WISE spacecraft bus provides communication, data handling, and avionics including instrument pointing. A Delta 7920 successfully launched WISE into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit on December 14, 2009. WISE was competitively selected by NASA as a Medium cost Explorer mission (MIDEX) in 2002. MIDEX missions are led by the Principal Investigator who delegates day-to-day management to the Project Manager. Given the tight cost cap and relatively short development schedule, NASA chose to extend the development period one year with an option to cancel the mission if certain criteria were not met. To meet this and other challenges, the WISE management team had to learn to work seamlessly across institutional lines and to recognize risks and opportunities in order to develop the flight hardware within the project resources. In spite of significant technical issues, the WISE satellite was delivered on budget and on schedule. This paper describes our management approach and risk posture, technical issues, and critical decisions made.

Risk Management↗

Mode properties of low-frequency waves: Kinetic theory versus Hall-MHD

In fluid theory, the ordering of low-frequency modes in a homogeneous plasma is based on the phase velocity, since modes do not intersect each other in dispersion diagrams as a function of wavenumber or other parameters. In linear kinetic theory, modes cross each other. Thus a consistent and useful classification should be based on the physical properties of the modes instead. This paper attempts such a classification by documeting the dispersion and general mode properties of the low-frequency waves (omega much less than (OMEGA(sub ci) OMEGA(sub ce) (exp 1/2)), where OMEGA(sub ci), OMEGA(sub ce) are the cyclotron frequencies of the ions and electrons, respectively) in kinetic theory, and by comparing them to the results of two-fluid theory. Kinetic theory gives a seperate Alfven/ion-cyclotron (A/IC) wave with phase speed Omega/k approximately = v(sub A) cos theta for omega much less than OMEGA(sub ci), where v(sub A) is the Alfven velocity and theta the angle of propagation between wave vector k and background magnetic field B(sub o). For a given wavenumber, the magnetosonic mode is a double-valued solution with a singular point in theta, beta parameter space, where beta is the ratio of thermal pressure to magnetic pressure. It is shown that a branch cut starting at the singular point theta approximately 30 deg, beta approximately 3 and leading to larger beta gives a practical and consitent seperation of this double-valued magnetosonic solution. Selection of this branch cut results in a moderately damped fast/magnetos onic and a heavily damped slow/sound wave. A comprehensive review of the polarization, compressibility and other mode properties is given and shown to be consistent with the selected branch cut. At small wavenumbers, the kinetic mode properties typically start to deviate significantly from their fluid counterparts at beta approximately 0.5. At larger beta, there is no longer a consistent correspondence between the fluid and kinetic modes. Kinetic theory also dictates the use of different mode properties to distinguish between them in observational data. For example, the phase between the density and magnetic field perturbation may become useless at high beta, whereas the direction of the magnetic field perturbations with respect to k and B(sub o) remains a useful characteristic. Two quantities based on this characteristic are suggested and are shown to be useful also to distinguish between the mirror mode and A/IC waves in a plasma with temperature anisotropy.

Krauss-Varban, D.↗

Polarimeter for Low Energy X-ray Astrophysical Sources (PLEXAS)

The Polarimeter for Low Energy X-ray Astrophysical Sources (PLEXAS) is an astrophysics mission concept for measuring the polarization of X-ray sources at low energies below the C-K band (less than 277 eV). PLEXAS uses the concept of variations in the reflectivity of a multilayered X-ray telescope as a function of the orientation of an X-rays polarization vector with respect to the reflecting surface of the optic. By selecting an appropriate multilayer, and rotating the X-ray telescope while pointing to a source, there will be a modulation in the source intensity, as measured at the focus of the telescope, which is proportional to the degree of polarization in the source.

Murray, Stephen S.↗

Optimal selection of space transportation fleet to meet multi-mission space program needs

A space program that spans several decades will be comprised of a collection of missions such as low earth orbital space station, a polar platform, geosynchronous space station, lunar base, Mars astronaut mission, and Mars base. The optimal selection of a fleet of several recoverable and expendable launch vehicles, upper stages, and interplanetary spacecraft necessary to logistically establish and support these space missions can be examined by means of a linear integer programming optimization model. Such a selection must be made because the economies of scale which comes from producing large quantities of a few standard vehicle types, rather than many, will be needed to provide learning curve effects to reduce the overall cost of space transportation if these future missions are to be affordable. Optimization model inputs come from data and from vehicle designs. Each launch vehicle currently in existence has a launch history, giving rise to statistical estimates of launch reliability. For future, not-yet-developed launch vehicles, theoretical reliabilities corresponding to the maturity of the launch vehicles' technology and the degree of design redundancy must be estimated. Also, each such launch vehicle has a certain historical or estimated development cost, tooling cost, and a variable cost. The cost of a launch used in this paper includes the variable cost plus an amortized portion of the fixed and development costs. The integer linear programming model will have several constraint equations based on assumptions of mission mass requirements, volume requirements, and number of astronauts needed. The model will minimize launch vehicle logistic support cost and will select the most desirable launch vehicle fleet.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗