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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere- troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2 ) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. The models, however, are in good agreement as to the impact of SSWs over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A vortex model for transport in the polar stratosphere

A semi-empirical model based on a Gaussian vorticity distribution was developed for determining eddy diffusivity and wind transport distributions in the polar stratosphere. The model uses as input data pressure surface heights measured at periods of the year when the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits nearly circular patterns around the pole. The components of the polar wind velocities that result from a Prandtl eddy viscosity distribution are found to be in general agreement with those obtained by other investigators.

Eberstein, I. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Northern Late Winter Planetary Waves: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

As does Earth, Mars presents pronounced global atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar differential heating drives mean meridional overturning (Hadley) circulations which are deep and intense, are hemispherically asymmetric, and where a cross-equatorial single cell dominates. Within middle and high latitudes, thermally indirect eddy-driven (Ferrel) circulation cells have been indicated. Differently, however, large-amplitude orography on planetary and continental scales on Mars can force very non-Earth-like hemispheric circulation patterns. Recent observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, "Mars Color Imager" (MARCI) instrument are utilized that emphasize water ice clouds in ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths, and these measurements have been binned into "daily global maps" (DGMs) of water-ice cloud optical depth. The presence of large-scale, extratropical quasi-stationary atmospheric wave disturbances in middle and late winter of the northern hemisphere have been found to be present in such DGMs. In combination with such observations, a full-physics Mars global climate model (NASA ARC marsgcm 2.1) is applied to place the observations into context. During late northern winter, it is found that strong, forced Rossby modes (i.e., planetary waves) exist, and with direct correlation to columnintegrated cloud opacity undulating spatial patterns. At this season, zonal wavenumber s = 2 dominates (in contrast to wavenumber s = 1), consistent with MGS/TES analyses at this particular season (Banfield et al., 2003). Large-scale, planetary waves dictate the "coherence" of the northern polar vortex. Fundamentally, such forced planetary waves influence the polar vortex's impermeability (wave-induced) to tracer transport (e.g., dust and water-ice aerosol) and temporal mean water vapor spatial variations. The large-scale dynamical features of such planetary waves will be highlighted and discussed.

Northern polar vortex↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanoscale strain wave generation by a piezoelectric grating from polar vortices

Nanostructures formed by spontaneously broken symmetry have provided new ways to manipulate quantum states. Specifically, topological structures with periodic spatial ordering, such as polar vortices and skyrmions, can be ideal hosts for creating engineered responses in both spatial and frequency domains. So far, however, only a few examples of such hierarchical engineering have been reported in the literature. Here we demonstrate that the spatially modulated piezoelectric response of a polar vortex structure can create strain waves with a characteristic nanoscale wavefront. Using time-resolved pump–probe resonant X-ray scattering and diffraction measurements, coupled with dynamical phase-field simulations, we show that the piezoelectric modulation of the spontaneously formed polar vortex crystal functions as an acoustic diffraction grating. This system converts incoming laterally uniform strain waves into outgoing waves with a characteristic sub-terahertz frequency, driven by an intrinsic excitation of the polar vortex crystal. Moreover, our phase-field simulations suggest that the dynamic mechanical displacements exhibiting vortex textures are generated from both space- and time-varying piezoelectric responses. Our findings illustrate a new method for generating nanoscale strain waves with unique spatial textures by tuning the hierarchical order of polar topologies to engineer new collective modes, allowing for a wide range of control through the topological lattice.

ferroelectrics↗
NASA NTRS1990

Airborne lidar observations in the wintertime Arctic stratosphere - Ozone

Large-scale distributions of ozone (O3) were measured with an airborne lidar system as part of the 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition. Measurements of O3 distributions were obtained between January 6 and February 15, 1989, on 15 long-range flights into the polar vortex from the Solar Air Station, Norway. The observed O3 distribution was found to clearly indicate the edge of the polar vortex and to be an effective tracer of dynamical processes in the lower stratosphere. On the last two flights of the expedition, large regions with reduced O3 levels were observed by the lidar inside the polar vortex. Ozone had decreased by as much as 17 percent in the center of these areas, and using the in situ measurements made on the ER-2 aircraft, it was concluded that this decline was due to chemical O3 destruction.

Browell, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A comparison of observed (HALOE) and modeled (CCM2) methane and stratospheric water vapor

Recent measurements (21 September-15 October 1992) of methane and water vapor by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are compared with model results for the same season from a troposphere-middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2). Several important features of the two constituent fields are well reproduced by the CCM2, despite the use of simplified methane photochemistry in the CCM2 and some notable differences between the model's zonal mean circulation and climatology. Observed features simulated by the model include the following: 1) subsidence over a deep layer in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex; 2) widespread dehydration in the polar vortex; and 3) existence of a region of low water vapor mixing ratios extending from the Antarctic into the Northern Hemisphere tropics, which suggests that Antarctic dehydration contributes to midlatitude and tropical dryness in the stratosphere.

Mote, Philip W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling the quasi-biennial oscillation's effect on the winter stratospheric circulation

The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the winter middle atmosphere is modeled with a mechanistic global primitive equation model. The model's polar vortex evolution is sensitive to the lower stratosphere's tropical winds, with the polar vortex becoming more (less) disturbed as the lower stratospheric winds are more easterly (westerly). This agrees with the observed relationship between wintertime polar circulation strength and the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. In these experiments it is the extratropical planetary Rossby waves that provide the tropical-extratropical coupling mechanism. More easterly tropical winds in the lower stratosphere act to confine the extratropical Rossby waves farther north and closer to the vortex at the QBO altitudes, weakening the vortex relative to the case of westerly QBO phase. While the QBO winds occur in the lower stratosphere, the anomaly in the polar vortex strength is strongest at higher levels.

O'Sullivan, Donal↗
NASA NTRS1991

The potential for ozone depletion in the Arctic polar stratosphere

The nature of the Arctic polar stratosphere is observed to be similar in many respects to that of the Antarctic polar stratosphere, where an ozone hole has been identified. Most of the available chlorine (CHl and ClONO2) was converted by reactions on polar stratospheric clouds to reactive ClO and Cl2O2 thoroughout the Arctic polar vortex before midwinter. Reactive nitrogen was converted to HNO3, and some, with spatial inhomogeneity, fell out of the stratosphere. These chemical changes ensured characteristic ozone losses of 10 to 15 percent at altitudes inside the polar vortex where polar stratospheric clouds had occurred. These local losses can translate into 5 to 8 percent losses in the vertical column abundance of ozone. As the amount of stratospheric chlorine inevitably increases by 50 percent over the next two decades, ozone losses recognizable as an ozone hole may well appear.

Brune, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The relationship of satellite-inferred stratospheric aerosol extinction to the position of the 50-mb north polar jet stream

The relationship between stratospheric aerosols and the location of the north polar night stratospheric jet stream was investigated for selected periods of four successive winters (1979-1982), using measurements from SAM II (Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement II) and SAGE I (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I) satellite-borne sun photometers and corresponding meteorological observations. Each period investigated included a polar stratospheric warming during which major dynamic meteorological changes are known to have perturbed the structure of the polar vortex. The analysis of variations in aerosol extinction mixing ratio patterns among winters and during major stratospheric warming events within separate winters showed a well-defined positive gradient in extinction mixing ratio and temperature across the jet stream from the cyclonic side to the anticyclonic side at altitudes between 20 and 30 km during each winter period. Estimates of extinction mixing ratio profiles measured near the center of the polar vortex suggest that a gradual subsidence took place within the polar vortex during at least three of the four winter periods.

Livingston, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The breakup of the Southern Hemisphere spring polar ozone and temperature minimums from 1979 to 1987

The purpose of this study is to quantify the observations of the polar vortex breakup. The data used in this study consist of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, and National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses. The final warming is diagnosed using the difference between zonal means at 80 degrees and 50 degrees S for temperature, ozone, and layer mean temperature. The polar vortex breakup can also be diagnosed by the onset of weak zonal mean zonal winds (i.e., u, overbar denotes a zonal average) at 60 degrees S. Computations of the polar vortex breakdown date using NMC meteorological data and TOMS total ozone data indicate that the breakdown is occurring later in the spring in the lowest portion of the stratosphere. At altitudes above 100 mb, the large interannual variance of the breakdown date renders any trend determination of the breakdown date difficult. Individual plots of TOMS total ozone indicate that the total ozone minimum remains intact for a longer period of time than is observed in earlier years.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Are the Stratospheric Teleconnection Pathways Similar for Fast and Slowly Propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Episodes?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the extratropical circulation on timescales up to several weeks, with a dependence on the MJO characteristics: MJO events that propagate slowly across the Maritime Continent have a stronger impact on Euro-Atlantic weather than fast MJO events. The slow (fast) MJO events are defined as events that take more (less) than 15 (10) days to propagate from the Indian Ocean (phase 3) to the Pacific Ocean (phase 6), and the MJO amplitude has to be greater than 1 for at least three consecutive days in phase 3 and phase 6. Slowly propagating MJO events lead to a stronger North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response than fast MJO events, and the positive (negative) NAO response for slow events occur after a lag of 10 days following phase 4 (phases 7-8). Furthermore, the MJO can influence the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, which in turn can impact the NAO via downward coupling. While the tropospheric pathway for teleconnections from the MJO events with varying phase speeds is well understood, the stratospheric pathways for MJO events with different propagation speeds have yet to be explored. In this talk, I will discuss the stratospheric pathways during fast and slow MJO episodes using reanalysis data with respect to the strength of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex and subsequent downward coupling to the troposphere. This is evident from the zonal wind response within the stratospheric polar vortex at 60N and 10-hPa and the geopotential height response at 500-hPa and 100-hPa.

Priyanka Yadav↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Forecast, Measurement, and Modeling of an Unprecedented Polar Ozone Filament Event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

In mid-March 2005 the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex experienced a severe stretching episode, bringing a large polar filament far south of Alaska toward Hawaii. This meridional intrusion of rare extent, coinciding with the polar vortex final warming and breakdown, was followed by a zonal stretching in the wake of the easterly propagating subtropical main flow. This caused polar air to remain over Hawaii for several days before diluting into the subtropics. After being successfully forecasted to pass over Hawaii by the high-resolution potential vorticity advection model Modele Isentrope du transport Meso-echelle de l'Ozone Stratospherique par Advection (MIMOSA), the filament was observed on isentropic surfaces between 415 K and 455 K (17-20 km) by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stratospheric ozone lidar measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, between 16 and 19 March 2005. It was materialized as a thin layer of enhanced ozone peaking at 1.6 ppmv in a region where the climatological values usually average 1.0 ppmv. These values were compared to those obtained by the three dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. Agreement between lidar and model was excellent, particularly in the similar appearance of the ozone peak near 435 K (18.5 km) on 16 March, and the persistence of this layer at higher isentropic levels for the following three days. Passive ozone, also modeled by MIMOSA-CHIM, was at about 3-4 ppmv inside the filament while above Hawaii. A detailed history of the modeled chemistry inside the filament suggests that the air mass was still polar ozone- depleted when passing over Hawaii. The filament quickly separated from the main vortex after its Hawaiian overpass. It never reconnected and, in less than 10 days, dispersed entirely in the subtropics.

atmospheric processes↗
NASA NTRS1997

Tracer Lamination in the Stratosphere: A Global Climatology

Vertical soundings of stratospheric ozone often exhibit laminated tracer structures characterized by strong vertical tracer gradients. The change in time of these gradients is used to define a tracer lamination rate. It is shown that this quantity can be calculated by the cross product of the horizontal temperature and horizontal tracer gradients. A climatology based on UARS satellite-borne ozone data and on ozone-like pseudotracer data is presented. Three stratospheric regions with high lamination rates were found: the part of the stratospheric overworld which is influenced by the polar vortex, the part of the lowermost stratosphere which is influenced by the tropopause and a third region in the subtropical lower stratosphere mainly characterized with strong vertical shear. High lamination rates in the stratospheric overworld were absent during summer, whereas in the lowermost stratosphere high lamination rates were found year-round. This is consistent with the occurrence and seasonal variation of the horizontal tracer gradient and vertical shear necessary for tilting the tracer surfaces. During winter, high lamination rates associated with the stratospheric polar vortex are present down to approximately 100 hPa. Several features of the derived climatology are roughly consistent with earlier balloon-borne studies. The patterns in the southern and northern hemisphere are comparable, but details differ as anticipated from a less disturbed and more symmetric southern polar vortex.

Appenzeller, Christof↗
NASA NTRS1988

In situ observations of ClO in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere: ER-2 aircraft results from 21 N to 61 N latitude

Measurements of lower stratospheric ClO taken during a NASA ER-2 flight between Moffett Field, CA (37 N, 122 W) and Great Slave Lake, Canada (61 N, 116 W) on 13 February 1988 are reported. Northbound, the aircraft was flown at about 20 km altitude from 39 N to 56 N, at 18 km from there to 58 N, in a descent to 15 km at 60 N, and in a rise and turn at the northernmost point. The southbound leg was flown in a gradual climb from 20 km to 21.5 km. On this day, the central position of the Arctic polar vortex, as determined by an NMC analysis of heights and temperatures at the 50 mb and 70 mb levels, was approximately 79 N, 100 W. Because the vortex was located on the North American side of the pole, the aircraft was able to reach a point slightly inside the maximum horizontal wind region where wind speeds were 80 to 90 knots. The general pattern for the observed ClO is that it increased with both latitude and altitude, and attained a maximum of about 55 pptv at 61 N latitude and 20.5 km altitude. This value is about 20 times smaller than the maxima observed over Antarctica, but is comparable to those seen just outside the chemical containment vessel located inside the Antarctic Polar vortex. On the other hand, in a comparison with northern midlatitude data taken on this and three other February flights, ClO mixing ratios observed north of 55 N latitude are 2 to 5 times larger at all flight altitudes (15 to 20 km). Possible reasons are discussed for this enhancement over midlatitude and the evidence is considered for whether or not the instruments sampled Arctic polar vortex air. A second feature of the data is the strong positive correlation between ClO and O3 during the entire flight.

Brune, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Arctic↗