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At least 145 records · Page 8

NRAP-Open-IAM: Generic Aquifer Component Development and Testing

The Generic Aquifer Model calculates the concentrations of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 surrounding a leaking legacy well. The Generic Aquifer model can also estimate the size of an “impact plume” where concentration changes exceed user-specified thresholds. The model is a component of NRAP-Open-IAM, an open-source Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The input parameters were selected to cover a wide range of groundwater aquifers and leakage rates. The generic aquifer model was developed using a generative adversarial deep learning network, trained using a large synthetic dataset of STOMP multiphase flow simulations. The deep learning model predictions of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 in the aquifer compare well to the original STOMP simulation results. The extent of aquifer impacted by leaking CO 2 or brine is calculated using a user-defined mass fraction threshold. The aquifer impact volumes calculated based on STOMP simulation results compare well to those calculated based on the deep learning model. In a provided python script, gridded observation results from the generic aquifer component of NRAP-Open-IAM are converted to HDF5 format files for monitoring design with the DREAM code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Downwind dispersion of CO 2 from a major subsea blowout in shallow offshore waters

Growing interest in offshore geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) motivates risk assessment of large-scale subsea CO 2 well blowouts or pipeline ruptures. For major leaks of CO 2 from wells or pipelines, significant fluxes of CO 2 may occur from the sea surface depending on water depth. In the context of risk assessment of human health and safety, we have used previously simulated coupled well-reservoir and water column model results as a source term for dense gas dispersion of CO 2 above the sea surface. The models are linked together by one-way coupling, that is, output of one model is used as input to the next model. These first-of-their-kind coupled flow results are applicable to assessing the hazard of CO 2 to people at and downwind of the sea surface location of emission. Hazard is quantified by plotting the downwind dispersion length (DDL), which we define in the study as the distances from the emission source to the point at which the emitted CO 2 has been diluted to 5% and 1.5% in air by volume. Here results suggest that large-scale blowouts in shallow water (10 m) may cause hazardous CO 2 plumes extending on the order of several hundred meters downwind. Details of the modeling show DDL has a maximum for windspeed (at an elevation of 10 m) of approximately 5 m/s, with smaller DDL for both weaker and stronger winds. This is explained by the fact that wind favors transport but also causes dispersion; therefore there is a certain wind speed that maximizes DDL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bioaerosol Emission Characteristics from Laboratory Burns

Combustion processes can aerosolize and transport particles both from nonbiological and biological origin, with the latter termed bioaerosol particle (BAP). Previous work has shown an increase in the level of BAP in smoke plumes. The mechanism of their emission, whether from combustion of biological material or coemission with dust and soil from fire-driven winds, has yet to be examined. Here, we carried out a series of controlled combustion experiments to understand the role of vegetation type and combustion conditions in the direct emission of BAP. The fuels we used included broadleaf, evergreen, and grass. We measured the emitted fluorescent BAP using a wideband integrated bioaerosol system (WIBS), and we measured the viability of filter-collected BAP using flow cytometry. Our measurements showed that the size and absolute concentration of the fluorescent BAP, and the viability of the BAP emitted during combustion, depend on the combustion conditions. In addition, the type of fuel impacted the type of emitted fluorescent BAP fraction relative to the total concentration of the emitted aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Case Study on Pathogen Transport, Deposition, Evaporation and Transmission: Linking High-Fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Probability of Infection

A high-fidelity, low-Mach computational fluid dynamics simulation tool that includes evaporating droplets and variable-density turbulent flow coupling is well-suited to ascertain transmission probability and supports risk mitigation methods development for airborne infectious diseases such as COVID-19. A multi-physics large-eddy simulation-based paradigm is used to explore droplet and aerosol pathogen transport from a synthetic cough emanating from a kneeling humanoid. For an outdoor configuration that mimics the recent open-space social distance strategy of San Francisco, maximum primary droplet deposition distances are shown to approach 8.1 m in a moderate wind configuration with the aerosol plume transported in excess of 15 m. In quiescent conditions, the aerosol plume extends to approximately 4 m before the emanating pulsed jet becomes neutrally buoyant. A dose–response model, which is based on previous SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) data, is exercised on the high-fidelity aerosol transport database to establish relative risk at eighteen virtual receptor probe locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗

Transition Zone Morphology Dynamics of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) in a Salinity-Impacted Hyporheic Zone

Freshwater salinization is a common yet underappreciated environmental problem in rivers, yet how this process impacts the transport of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the hyporheic zone remains unknown. Here, using flume experiments and numerical simulations, we have demonstrated that the morphological dynamics of the DO transition zone are controlled by the dimensionless number Da·Ra –2 , a measure of the rate of aerobic respiration to free convection. At low Da·Ra –2 , the oxic front breaks up into fingers which subsequently grow, and leads to accelerating of DO transport and shrinking of the anaerobic zone in the underlying sediment. As Da·Ra –2 increases, the growth rate of the instability decreases, and the DO plume fingers are suppressed and delayed compared with the saltwater-freshwater interface, the mixing area between saltwater and freshwater. These results indicate that the freshwater salinization syndrome can have significant impacts on the functioning of aquifer ecosystems unless regulated and managed effectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation of laser ablation of stone polycrystalline targets

We report the results of an experimental investigation of ablation of stone polycrystalline targets of complex multicomponent composition, which imitate the substance of asteroids. The targets were irradiated by nanosecond pulses of a neodymium laser at an energy density Φ{sub L} of up to 5 × 10{sup 4} J cm{sup −2}. The experiments demonstrated the existence of two ablation regimes, with the boundary between them lying at Φ{sub L} ≈ 4000 J cm{sup −2}. The regime change is characterised by a change in the form of the dependence of the surface mass density of removed target material on the laser energy density and by the appearance of a minimum in the dependence of specific energy of destruction on Φ{sub L}. This is supposedly related to the passage from a one-dimensional plasma plume expansion to the three-dimensional one and the corresponding decrease in the efficiency of energy transfer from the laser beam to the target due to a lowering of laser-produced plasma density. Our experiments also showed the existence of a maximum in impulse coupling coefficient C{sub m} as a function of laser energy density (C{sub m} ≈ 6.3 × 10{sup −5} N W{sup −1} for Φ{sub L} = Φ{sub opt} ≈ 25 J cm{sup −2}). Maxima were also recorded in the dependences of the ablation efficiency and average ablation flow velocity on Φ{sub L}. For Φ{sub L} > Φ{sub opt}, the decrease in the function C{sub m}(Φ{sub L}) turns out to be much steeper than for metals and polymer materials. The difference is supposedly due to the lower strength and lower plasticity of the polycrystalline stone targets. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Alcove formation in dissolving cliffs driven by density inversion instability

We demonstrate conditions that give rise to cave-like features commonly found in dissolving cliffsides with a minimal two-phase physical model. Alcoves that are wider at the top and tapered at the bottom, with sharp-edged ceilings and sloping floors, are shown to develop on vertical solid surfaces dissolving in aqueous solvents. As evident from descending plumes, sufficiently large indentations evolve into alcoves as a result of the faster dissolution of the ceiling due to a solutal Rayleigh–Bénard density inversion instability. In contrast, defects of size below the boundary layer thickness set by the critical Rayleigh number smooth out, leading to stable planar interfaces. Furthermore, the ceiling recession rate and the alcove opening area evolution are shown to be given to first-order by the critical Rayleigh number. By tracking passive tracers in the fluid phase, we show that the alcoves are shaped by the detachment of the boundary layer flow and the appearance of a pinned vortex at the leading edge of the indentations. The attached boundary layer past the developing alcove is then found to lead to rounding of the other sides and the gradual sloping of the floor.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vadose Zone Transport of Tritium and Nitrate under Ponded Water Conditions

Vadose zone transport of tritium and nitrate can be important considerations at radioactive waste sites, landfills, or areas with industrial impacts. These contaminants are of particular concern because they typically have a relatively higher mobility in the subsurface compared to other compounds. Here, we describe a semiarid site with tritium and nitrate contamination involving a manmade ponded water source above a thick unsaturated zone at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, USA. This study demonstrates the value of vadose zone flow and transport modeling for the development of field investigation plans (i.e., identifying optimal borehole locations and depths for contaminant characterization), and how a combination of modeling with isotope and geochemical measurements can provide insight into how tritium and nitrate transport in the vadose zone in semiarid environments. Modeling results suggest that at this location, tritium transport is well predicted by classical multiphase theory. Our work expands the demonstrated usefulness of a standard tritium conceptual model to sites with ponded surface conditions and agrees with previous results where a standard model was able to explain the evolution of a tritium plume at an arid waste disposal site. In addition, depth-based analyses of δ 18 O and δ 2 H of pore waters helped confirm the extent of pond infiltration into the vadose zone, and the δ 15 N of nitrate showed that the contaminant release history of the site was different than originally assumed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Validation of two-layer model for underexpanded hydrogen jets

Previous studies have shown that the two-layer model more accurately predicts hydrogen dispersion than the conventional notional nozzle models without significantly increasing the computational expense. However, the model was only validated for predicting the concentration distribution and has not been adequately validated for predicting the velocity distributions. In the present study, particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was used to measure the velocity field of an underexpanded hydrogen jet released at 10 bar from a 1.5 mm diameter orifice. The two-layer model was the used to calculate the inlet conditions for a two-dimensional axisymmetric CFD model to simulate the hydrogen jet downstream of the Mach disk. The predicted velocity spreading and centerline decay rates agreed well with the PIV measurements. The predicted concentration distribution was consistent with data from previous planar Rayleigh scattering measurements used to verify the concentration distribution predictions in an earlier study. The jet spreading was also simulated using several widely used notional nozzle models combined with the integral plume model for comparison. These results show that the velocity and concentration distributions are both better predicted by the two-layer model than the notional nozzle models to complement previous studies verifying only the predicted concentration profiles. Thus, this study shows that the two-layer model can accurately predict the jet velocity distributions as well as the concentration distributions as verified earlier. Though more validation studies are needed to improve confidence in the model and increase the range of validity, the present work indicates that the two-layer model is a promising tool for fast, accurate predictions of the flow fields of underexpanded hydrogen jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Generation of Subauroral Longitudinally Extended Emissions Following Intensifications of the Poleward Boundary of the Substorm Bulge and Streamer Production

Observations showing the development of Subauroral Longitudinally Extended Emigerssions on a global scale are presented. It is demonstrated that they occur as a separation of an east-west arc-like band of luminosity that detaches away from the equatorward edge of the auroral distribution following episodes of auroral streamer production. They persist for time intervals on the order of ~30 min and devolve into patchy disjointed segments before they fade. Emissions are seen in both 557.7 nm OI and 391.4 nm N + 2 1NG lines, and 630.0 nm emissions are often observed equatorward. The 391.4 nm emissions are typically weaker and fade away more quickly than the 557.7 nm emissions, suggesting that an auroral precipitation source is initially present but is rapidly depleted as the forms age. All cases are associated with enhanced Subauroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) flows, and one event shows clear association with large-scale Giant Undulations (GUs) and the formation of spur-like forms that fold equatorward under the main oval. A model is proposed for the production of subauroral longitudinally extended forms in which nonlinear growth of SAPS-induced surface waves on the plasmapause results in a disruption of the boundary. It is suggested that hot plasma of plasma sheet origin becomes entrained in the plasmasphere to produce transient precipitation-associated auroral emissions that may decay into STEVE emissions and that cold dense plasma from the plasmasphere becomes entrained onto open drift paths to feed long-lived drainage plumes. This process may occur quasi periodically during intense substorms and storm-time conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Heat pulse testing at monitoring wells to estimate subsurface fluid velocities in geological CO 2 storage

Monitoring the injected CO 2 during geological CO 2 storage (GCS) is essential to assure containment and identify CO 2 leakage. Here in this work, a new approach is introduced to estimate the evolution of the downhole fluid velocity at a monitoring well and identify CO 2 arrival time using in-well heat pulse/tracer test. The proposed technique involves using a downhole heater to generate a series of heat pulses and measuring their corresponding temperature response. The surface temperature of the downhole heater is controlled by the supplied electrical power and the heat loss by convection to the surroundings. Convective heat transfer is well described using Newton's law of cooling in which the temperature difference between the heater and the surrounding fluids drives the heat transfer, for which the convection heat transfer coefficient (h) controls the magnitude of heat loss. Among various factors that control h, it depends on the type of the flowing fluid and its velocity. Through analyzing the measured temperature at different heat pulses, the changes in h - due to mobilization of the in-situ brine or CO 2 arrival - can be estimated. Consequently, the velocity of the flowing fluid across the heater can be obtained. Since heat transfer by convection is sensitive to the type of the surrounding fluid, intrusion of CO 2 can be detected from the relatively higher surface temperature obtained at CO 2 arrival. Churchill and Bernstein (1977)'s correlation is adopted to estimate the change of fluid velocity in terms of the change in h. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed technique, the results are applied and validated against those of COMSOL Multiphysics simulation tool for single-phase brine (before CO 2 arrival) and single-phase CO 2 (after CO 2 arrival). The observed temperature heating is sensitive to the flowing fluid velocity and fluid type. The temperature signal observed at CO 2 arrival is large and easily detectable using temperature monitoring tool which provides reliable indication for tracking CO 2 arrival at monitoring wells compared with passive temperature monitoring. The results obtained using the proposed technique agree very well with the numerical results obtained from the simulation tool with a maximum estimation error of 7 percent.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Factors controlling injection-induced rupture of intersecting faults during geological sequestration of CO 2

This study addresses coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics effects on potential fault activation associated with subsurface CO 2 injection around intersecting faults. An enhanced fault-representation model is used to capture geomechanical responses of two intersecting faults with finite length during CO 2 injection. The faults are embedded in a strike-slip stress regime of a caprock-reservoir-basement system with the faults represented by zero-thickness interfaces with adjacent finite-thickness damage zones. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of fault permeability, slip-weakening behavior, well location relative to the orientation of faults, and well placement (the number and location of injection wells). Five metrics (pressure, CO 2 plume, shear state on the fault, as well as shear displacement and stress path at selected fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO 2 migration and reactivation of intersecting faults. The results show that induced ruptures are favored by low permeability faults due to high pressure buildup and by slip-weakening behavior resulting from fault strength reduction. The location of one injection well relative to fault orientation determines the magnitude of changes in effective normal stress and shear stress, affecting the location of induced ruptures. Well placement (two injection wells used in the paper) dominates pressure diffusion around the intersection and tips of faults. This redistributes changes in effective normal stress caused by each injection well, influencing the spatial distribution of ruptures along faults. A larger injection volume induces far-field ruptures that are controlled by stress transfer within the injection layer. The findings presented here can provide valuable insights into engineering operations for a long-term, safe, and reliable geologic CO 2 storage.

Fault permeability↗

Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Model Validation

In this work, medium scale (30 cm diameter) methanol pool fires were simulated using the latest fire modeling suite implemented in Sierra/Fuego, a low Mach number multiphysics reacting flow code. The sensitivity of model outputs to various model parameters was studied with the objective of providing model validation. This work also assesses model performance relative to other recently published large eddy simulations (LES) of the same validation case. Two pool surface boundary conditions were simulated. The first was a prescribed fuel mass flux and the second used an algorithm to predict mass flux based on a mass and energy balance at the fuel surface. Gray gas radiation model parameters (absorption coefficients and gas radiation sources) were varied to assess radiant heat losses to the surroundings and pool surface. The radiation model was calibrated by comparing the simulated radiant fraction of the plume to experimental data. The effects of mesh resolution were also quantified starting with a grid resolution representative of engineering type fire calculations and then uniformly refining that mesh in the plume region. Simulation data were compared to experimental data collected at the University of Waterloo and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Validation data included plume temperature, radial and axial velocities, velocity temperature turbulent correlations, velocity velocity turbulent correlations, radiant and convective heat fluxes to the pool surface, and plume radiant fraction. Additional analyses were performed in the pool boundary layer to assess simulated flame anchoring and the effect on convective heat fluxes. This work assesses the capability of the latest Fuego physics and chemistry model suite and provides additional insight into pool fire modeling for nonluminous, non-sooting flames.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

Impact of environmental oxygen on nanoparticle formation and agglomeration in aluminum laser ablation plumes

Here, the role of ambient oxygen gas (O 2 ) on molecular and nanoparticle formation and agglomeration was studied in laser ablation plumes. As a lab-scale surrogate to a high explosion detonation event, nanosecond laser ablation of an aluminum alloy (AA6061) target was performed in atmospheric pressure conditions. Optical emission spectroscopy and two mass spectrometry techniques were used to monitor the early to late stages of plasma generation to track the evolution of atoms, molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, and agglomerates. The experiments were performed under atmospheric pressure air, atmospheric pressure nitrogen, and 20% and 5% O 2 (balance N 2 ), the latter specifically with in situ mass spectrometry. Electron microscopy was performed ex situ to identify crystal structure and elemental distributions in individual nanoparticles. We find that the presence of ≈20% O 2 leads to strong AlO emission, whereas in a flowing N 2 environment (with trace O 2 ), AlN and strong, unreacted Al emissions are present. In situ mass spectrometry reveals that as O 2 availability increases, Al oxide cluster size increases. Nanoparticle agglomerates formed in air are found to be larger than those formed under N 2 gas. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy demonstrates that Al 2 O 3 and AlN nanoparticle agglomerates are formed in both environments; indicating that the presence of trace O 2 can lead to Al 2 O 3 nanoparticle formation. The present results highlight that the availability of O 2 in the ambient gas significantly impacts spectral signatures, cluster size, and nanoparticle agglomeration behavior. These results are relevant to understanding debris formation in an explosion event, and interpreting data from forensic investigations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗