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DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor-Assisted Fault Mitigation in Quantum Computation

We propose a method for assisting fault mitigation in quantum computation through the use of sensors, co-located near physical qubits. Specifically, we consider using transition edge sensors co-located on silicon substrates hosting superconducting qubits to monitor for energy injection from ionizing radiation that has been demonstrated to increase decoherence in transmon qubits. We generalize from these two physical device concepts and explore the potential advantages of co-located sensors to assist fault mitigation in quantum computation. In the simplest scheme, co-located sensors beneficially assist rejection of calculations potentially affected by environmental disturbances. Investigating the potential computational advantage further required development of an extension to the standard formulation of quantum error correction. In a specific case the standard three-qubit, bit flip quantum correction code, we show that given a 20% overall error probability per qubit, approximately 90% of repeated calculation attempts are correctable. However, when sensor-detectable errors account for 45% of overall error probability, the use of colocated sensors uniquely associated with independent qubits, boosts the fraction of correct final-state calculations to 96% at the cost of rejecting 7% of repeated calculation attempts.

Orrell, John L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Signal-Based Fast Tripping Protection Schemes for Electric Power Distribution System Resilience

This report is a summary of a 3-year LDRD project that developed novel methods to detect faults in the electric power grid dramatically faster than today’s protection systems. Accurately detecting and quickly removing electrical faults is imperative for power system resilience and national security to minimize impacts to defense critical infrastructure. The new protection schemes will improve grid stability during disturbances and allow additional integration of renewable energy technologies with low inertia and low fault currents. Signal-based fast tripping schemes were developed that use the physics of the grid and do not rely on communication to reduce cyber risks for safely removing faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Permeability-controlled migration of induced seismicity to deeper depths near Venus in North Texas

Abstract Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Design and validation of fault-tolerant flight systems

Flight systems must be validated to show that they are consistent with the requirements of their intended applications. While high reliability is difficult to validate, the additional complexity of fault tolerance further compounds the validation problem. The objective of NASA’s research is to develop a methodology for designing validatable fault-tolerant systems. Under the design-for-validation philosophy, emphasis is placed on developing validation methods that can be incorporated into the design process right from the start and design methods and guidance which, while incorporating fault tolerance, can assure validatability. This paper examines the statistical issues of validating highly reliable, fault tolerant system. There are many problems associated with traditional methods of designing and validating these potentially complex hardware and software systems. Useful design-for-validation methods, which include structured specification and design methodologies, mathematical proof techniques, analytical modeling, simulation and emulation, and physical testing, are discussed. Important design issues associated with fault tolerance are presented along with the related validation concerns which must be addressed. Experience has shown that synchronization and Byzantine resilience must accompany fault tolerance. Other design attributes associated with fault tolerance may be used by a designer on the basis of cost, weight, performance, and validation considerations.

Computer systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing operational safety: The NSTX-U Shorted Turn Protection (STP) system

The NSTX-U Shorted Turn Protection (STP) system is a vital safety feature designed to protect the tokamak’s coils during operations. It employs a Kalman filter-based algorithm to monitor coil currents and detect faults in real-time. If an anomaly is detected, the system swiftly terminates the tokamak pulse to prevent damage. Developed with Matlab and Simulink, the STP system has been validated through real-time simulations, ensuring its effectiveness for the upcoming upgrades of the NSTX-U facility. In conclusion, this article presents the theory for implementation of the STP algorithm and the results from simulation and real-time implementation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1991

A low maintenance and highly reliable fly-by-light architecture

This paper proposes a highly reliable distributed architecture for use in a commercial transport. Fly-By-Light characteristics of the architecture are a serial fiber optic backplane and redundant fiber optic data bus. The fiber optic bus is fault tolerant and Byzantine resilient. A distributed architecture (both physically and logically) can be realized by utilizing several processing clusters on the data bus. A processing cluster is composed of one or more processing units. The processing units consist of several modules. The modules of the processing unit are connected via a serial fiber optic backplane. Fault tolerance is implemented at the backplane to increase reliability and availability.

Dan Palumbo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Control and Limiter Schemes on Sequence-Domain Fault Models of Grid-Forming Inverter-Interfaced Distributed Generators

Unlike synchronous generators, the fault response of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs) is notably governed by the selection of control and current limiting strategies rather than inherent physical traits. While recent research has focused on the sequence domain fault model of GFM IIDGs, a research gap exists in elucidating the influence of control and current limiting schemes on this model's characteristics. This article aims to fill this void by examining how different control and current limiting schemes influence the positive and negative sequence impedances in the phasor-domain fault model of GFM IIDGs. This investigation encompasses droop-based, virtual synchronous machine-based, and virtual oscillator-based reference generation controls alongside rotating and stationary reference-frame-based voltage controls. Furthermore, saturation-based, latching-based, circular and virtual impedance-based current limiting schemes are analyzed. To achieve this goal, a thorough numerical simulation study is conducted. Findings indicate that outer reference generation controls exhibit minimal impact. Conversely, the choice of voltage control and various current limiting schemes emerge as the predominant factors shaping the sequence models of GFM IIDGs. These analyses and results are instrumental in devising reliable protection strategies within inverter-based grids, as a comprehensive understanding of electrical elements in the sequence domain is imperative for effective protective measures.

current limiters↗

DOE OSTI2021

Source Physics Experiment: Rock Valley Interferometric Synthetic Aperture RADAR Earthquake Detection Study

Seismic signals from 1993 show a series of magnitude (Mw) 3.7 or less seismic events in Rock Valley on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Historic synthetic aperture radar images of that location were found that could provide interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measures of the ground height during 1993. Given this historic SAR imagery, we explore answering the question if ground movement from the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake activity could be sensed by remote sensing means. Finding earthquake surface movement would assist in locating the Rock Valley fault and the 1993 earthquake hypocenter where the Source Physics Experiment Phase III series of experiments will be conducted. In this report, we show that InSAR can sense very small height differences, and for the European Radar Satellite-1 InSAR collections during 1992 and 1993 over Rock Valley earth surface movements were measured with 8 mm uplift and 12.5 mm subsidence over isolated areas. One of these earth movement areas coincides with an InSAR image pair coherence drop between March 5, 1993 and June 18, 1993. The coherence drop is over an approximately 13 square km area south southeast of Skull Mountain centered at 36° 43' 30" N latitude and 116° 05' 00" W longitude. Measured small surface movement and a loss of InSAR coherence may be caused by the series of earthquakes. The location of these InSAR detections may also coincide with water drainage or erosion displacement. There are no records to disambiguate the earthquake and erosion earth surface motion possibilities. Therefore, the InSAR findings of earth surface movement by InSAR are inconclusive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

A verified design of a fault-tolerant clock synchronization circuit: Preliminary investigations

Schneider demonstrates that many fault tolerant clock synchronization algorithms can be represented as refinements of a single proven correct paradigm. Shankar provides mechanical proof that Schneider's schema achieves Byzantine fault tolerant clock synchronization provided that 11 constraints are satisfied. Some of the constraints are assumptions about physical properties of the system and cannot be established formally. Proofs are given that the fault tolerant midpoint convergence function satisfies three of the constraints. A hardware design is presented, implementing the fault tolerant midpoint function, which is shown to satisfy the remaining constraints. The synchronization circuit will recover completely from transient faults provided the maximum fault assumption is not violated. The initialization protocol for the circuit also provides a recovery mechanism from total system failure caused by correlated transient faults.

Miner, Paul S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing quantum utility: Simulating large-scale quantum spin chains on superconducting quantum computers

We present the quantum simulation of the frustrated quantum spin- 1 2 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg spin chain with competing nearest-neighbor ( J 1 ) and next-nearest-neighbor ( J 2 ) exchange interactions in the real superconducting quantum computer with qubits ranging up to 100. In particular, we implement the Hamiltonian with the next-nearest neighbor exchange interaction in conjunction with the nearest-neighbor interaction on IBM's superconducting quantum computer and carry out the time evolution of the spin chain by employing the first-order Trotterization. Furthermore, our implementation of the second-order Trotterization for the isotropic Heisenberg spin chain, involving only nearest-neighbor exchange interaction, enables precise measurement of the expectation values of staggered magnetization observable across a range of up to 100 qubits. Notably, in both cases, our approach results in a constant circuit depth in each Trotter step, independent of the number of qubits. Our demonstration of the accurate measurement of expectation values for the large-scale quantum system using superconducting quantum computers designates the quantum utility of these devices for investigating various properties of many-body quantum systems. This will be a stepping stone to achieving the quantum advantage over classical ones in simulating quantum systems before the fault tolerance quantum era. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Framework to Debug Diagnostic Matrices

Diagnostics is an important concept in system health and monitoring of space operations. Many of the existing diagnostic algorithms utilize system knowledge in the form of diagnostic matrix (D-matrix, also popularly known as diagnostic dictionary, fault signature matrix or reachability matrix) gleaned from physical models. But, sometimes, this may not be coherent to obtain high diagnostic performance. In such a case, it is important to modify this D-matrix based on knowledge obtained from other sources such as time-series data stream (simulated or maintenance data) within the context of a framework that includes the diagnostic/inference algorithm. A systematic and sequential update procedure, diagnostic modeling evaluator (DME) is proposed to modify D-matrix and wrapper logic considering least expensive solution first. This iterative procedure includes conditions ranging from modifying 0s and 1s in the matrix, or adding/removing the rows (failure sources) columns (tests). We will experiment this framework on datasets from DX challenge 2009.

Model-based↗

NASA NTRS2012

Model-Based Verification and Validation of Spacecraft Avionics

Verification and Validation (V&V) at JPL is traditionally performed on flight or flight-like hardware running flight software. For some time, the complexity of avionics has increased exponentially while the time allocated for system integration and associated V&V testing has remained fixed. There is an increasing need to perform comprehensive system level V&V using modeling and simulation, and to use scarce hardware testing time to validate models; the norm for thermal and structural V&V for some time. Our approach extends model-based V&V to electronics and software through functional and structural models implemented in SysML. We develop component models of electronics and software that are validated by comparison with test results from actual equipment. The models are then simulated enabling a more complete set of test cases than possible on flight hardware. SysML simulations provide access and control of internal nodes that may not be available in physical systems. This is particularly helpful in testing fault protection behaviors when injecting faults is either not possible or potentially damaging to the hardware. We can also model both hardware and software behaviors in SysML, which allows us to simulate hardware and software interactions. With an integrated model and simulation capability we can evaluate the hardware and software interactions and identify problems sooner. The primary missing piece is validating SysML model correctness against hardware; this experiment demonstrated such an approach is possible.

MBV&V↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA)

The proposed paper will cover ongoing effort named HESTIA (Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement), led at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to promote a cross-subsystem approach to developing Mars-enabling technologies with the ultimate goal of integrated system optimization. HESTIA also aims to develop the infrastructure required to rapidly test these highly integrated systems at a low cost. The initial focus is on the common fluids architecture required to enable human exploration of mars, specifically between life support and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) subsystems. An overview of the advancements in both integrated technologies, in infrastructure, in simulation, and in modeling capabilities will be presented, as well as the results and findings of integrated testing,. Due to the enormous mass gear-ratio required for human exploration beyond low-earth orbit, (for every 1 kg of payload landed on Mars, 226 kg will be required on Earth), minimization of surface hardware and commodities is paramount. Hardware requirements can be minimized by reduction of equipment performing similar functions though for different subsystems. If hardware could be developed which meets the requirements of both life support and ISRU it could result in the reduction of primary hardware and/or reduction in spares. Minimization of commodities to the surface of mars can be achieved through the creation of higher efficiency systems producing little to no undesired waste, such as a closed-loop life support subsystem. Where complete efficiency is impossible or impractical, makeup commodities could be manufactured via ISRU. Although, utilization of ISRU products (oxygen and water) for crew consumption holds great promise of reducing demands on life support hardware, there exist concerns as to the purity and transportation of commodities. To date, ISRU has been focused on production rates and purities for propulsion needs. The meshing of requirements between all potential users, producers, and cleaners of oxygen and water is crucial to guiding the development of technologies which will be used to perform these functions. Various new capabilities are being developed as part of HESTIA, which will enable the integrated testing of these technologies. This includes the upgrading of a 20' diameter habitat chamber to eventually support long duration (90+ day) human-in-the-loop testing of advanced life support systems. Additionally, a 20' diameter vacuum chamber is being modified to create Mars atmospheric pressures and compositions. This chamber, designated the Mars Environment Chamber (MEC), will eventually be upgraded to include a dusty environment and thermal shroud to simulate conditions on the surface of Mars. In view that individual technologies will be in geographically diverse locations across NASA facilities and elsewhere in the world, schedule and funding constraints will likely limit the frequency of physical integration. When this is the case, absent subsystems can be either digitally or physically simulated. Using the Integrated Power Avionics and Software (iPAS) environment, HESTIA is able to bring together data from various subsystems in simulated surroundings, insert faults, errors, time delays, etc., and feed data into computer models or physical systems capable of reproducing the output of the absent subsystems for the consumption of a local subsystems. Although imperfect, this capability provides opportunities to test subsystem integration and interactions at a fraction of the cost. When a subsystem technology is too immature for integrated testing, models can be produced using the General-Use Nodal Network Solver (GUNNS) capability to simulate the overall system performance. In doing so, even technologies not yet on the drawing board can be integrated and overall system performance estimated. Through the integrated development of technologies, as well as of the infrastructure to rapidly and at a low cost, model, simulate, and test subsystem technologies early in their development, HESTIA is pioneering a new way of developing the future of human space exploration.

Banker, Brian F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling of the surface static displacements and fault plane slip for the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake

Three-dimensional finite element modeling techniques are used to synthesize geodetic and seismological results for 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. The strategy pursued consists of two principal steps. In the first step, the seismologically-derived coseismic fault slip is taken as a function of position in the fault plane and is applied directly to the three-dimensional dislocation model. In the second step, a physical model of stresses and constitutive parameters is perturbed so as to reproduce the observed fault slip. Hence, the principal features of the coseismic slip pattern are explained by a stress-driven fault model in which: (1) a spatially unresolved asperity is found equivalent to a stress drop of 18 MPa averaged over an area of 15 sq km, and (2) driving stress is essentially absent on the fault segment overlapping the 1940 earthquake rupture zone.

Slade, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A systematic feature extraction and selection framework for data-driven whole-building automated fault detection and diagnostics in commercial buildings

In data-driven automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) modeling for building energy systems, feature engineering is a critical process of extracting information from high-dimensional and noisy sensor measurement and turning it into informative and representative inputs or features for data-driven modeling. However, few studies specifically discuss the feature engineering, especially the interactions between feature extraction and feature selection in whole-building AFDD. We developed a systematic feature extraction and selection framework for whole-building AFDD. In this framework, features are aggressively extracted from raw sensor data using statistical feature extraction techniques with various window sizes and statistics. With many features extracted, a hybrid feature selection algorithm that combines the filter and wrapper method then selects the best feature set. The framework considers diversity in the duration of fault behavior among fault types in whole-building AFDD, thus achieving high model generalization. We implemented our developed framework in a virtual testbed calibrated with measured data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Flexible Research Platform designed to mimic the operation of a typical small commercial building. The AFDD model is trained by the simulation data generated from the virtual testbed. The results show that (1) the developed framework improves the generalization of the AFDD model by 10.7% compared with literature-reported feature extraction and selection methods and (2) features with diverse window sizes and statistics are selected, providing insight into physical systems beyond the current understanding of buildings and faults and improving the detection and diagnostics of multiple fault types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗