A Physics/Engineering of Failure Based Analysis and Tool for Quantifying Residual Risks in Spaceflight Hardware
NASA is supporting efforts to improve the verification and validation process and the risk management process for spaceflight projects.
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NASA is supporting efforts to improve the verification and validation process and the risk management process for spaceflight projects.
Electric propulsor machines and their associated power electronics have been identified in past studies as low-reliability components in emerging Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) vehicles that raise their predicted catastrophic failure rates. This research effort extends previously presented work investigating the use of fault-tolerant (FT) motor drives in quadrotor aircraft as a promising approach to significantly increase their mean-time-to-failure (MTTF). In particular, fault-tolerant modular motor drives (FT-MMDs) are identified as strong candidates for closing the electric propulsor reliability gap. These FT-MMDs divide a machine drive into multiple redundant modules, each consisting of three phase stator windings and power electronics units, enabling continued machine operation after a module failure. Achieving the highest possible isolation between modules (physical, magnetic, thermal, electrical) is critically important in FT-MMDs to prevent the propagation of any failure between modules. Key additional requirements for achieving the highest possible reliability characteristics with FT-MMDs are high repair rates and aggressive suppression of all single-point failures.
The goal of the NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Project is to determine the state of the art of dynamic fracture simulations for high velocity impact for composite fuselage shielding applications. Using a building block approach, several computational models considered under NASA ACC are being validated against test data, starting at unconfigured panels and progressing to configured panels under combined out-of-plane and in-plane loading due to ballistic impact. The computational models being evaluated in this project include MAT 162, MAT 213, MAT 261, SPG, and Peridynamics. In this paper, the simulation results using LS-Dyna Material MAT 261 are presented. In particular, a series of blind predictions for unconfigured panels were performed to determine the ballistic limit or V50 velocity. MAT 261 employs failure approach that is generally physically-based using fracture toughness criteria. The overall material model relies on typical ply-level stiffness properties, similar to MAT 162 and other composite continuum damage material models. The fracture toughness values are based on standard tests, and thus are not subject to extensive calibration. This approach is more efficient than performing extensive optimization studies for calibration of parameters. Also, this approach of relying on physical properties reduces the uncertainty of results, as questions concerning the quality and extent of the calibration studies is no longer relevant. However, it was found that carefully controlled coupon-level tests are needed to accurately obtain the required fracture toughness values. Additionally, it should be noted that there is one significant parameter in MAT 261 that does appear to require calibration, and that is the overall failure strain. This is the strain at which the element is deleted, and is not the same as the strain at which damage begins to accumulate. This failure strain is termed EFS (Effective Failure Strain), and is the maximum effective stain for element failure. Simulations have shown that this value will significantly affect impact response and failure. The paper presents the effect of this element failure strain parameter, along with possible uncertainties in fracture toughness values. With an adjusted appropriate value for EFS, it is seen that simulation results compare well with impact test data for predicted penetration velocity.
Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.
Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project
Objectives were listed for four areas: engineering science, reliability physics, module development, and module performance and failure analysis. The engineering science efforts are to develop module design requirements for large-scale photovoltaic (PV) applications and to develop generic module and array design and construction technology to meet the needed performance, safety, reliability, and system interfaces. The reliability physics effort is to develop the technology for 30-year life modules. The module development efforts are to transfer new technology to PV manufacturers and their products, and to evaluate these advanced modules. The module performance and failure analysis efforts are to determine PV module performance, to identify needed development, and to assess suitability for large-scale use.
Six ampere hour individual pressure vessel nickel hydrogen cells were charge/discharge cycled to failure. Failure as used here is defined to occur when the end of discharge voltage degraded to 0.9 volts. They were cycled under a low earth orbit cycle regime to a deep depth of discharge (80 percent of rated ampere hour capacity). Both cell designs were fabricated by the same manufacturer and represent current state of the art. A failure model was advanced which suggests both cell designs have inadequate volume tolerance characteristics. The limited existing data base at a deep depth of discharge (DOD) was expanded. Two cells of each design were cycled. One COMSAT cell failed at cycle 1712 and the other failed at cycle 1875. For the Air Force/Hughes cells, one cell failed at cycle 2250 and the other failed at cycle 2638. All cells, of both designs, failed due to low end of discharge voltage (0.9 volts). No cell failed due to electrical shorts. After cell failure, three different reconditioning tests (deep discharge, physical reorientation, and open circuit voltage stand) were conducted on all cells of each design. A fourth reconditioning test (electrolyte addition) was conducted on one cell of each design. In addition post cycle cell teardown and failure analysis were performed on the one cell of each design which did not have electrolyte added after failure.
Six ampere hour individual pressure vessel nickel hydrogen cells were charge/discharge cycled to failure. Failure as used here is defined to occur when the end of discharge voltage degraded to 0.9 volts. They were cycled under a low earth orbit cycle regime to a deep depth of discharge (80 percent of rated ampere hour capacity). Both cell designs were fabricated by the same manufacturer and represent current state of the art. A failure model was advanced which suggests both cell designs have inadequate volume tolerance characteristics. The limited existing data base at a deep depth of discharge (DOD) was expanded. Two cells of each design were cycled. One COMSAT cell failed at cycle 1712 and the other failed at cycle 1875. For the Air Force/Hughes cells, one cell failed at cycle 2250 and the other failed at cycle 2638. All cells, of both designs, failed due to low end of discharge voltage (0.9 volts). No cell failed due to electrical shorts. After cell failure, three different reconditioning tests (deep discharge, physical reorientation, and open circuit voltage stand) were conducted on all cells of each design. A fourth reconditioning test (electrolyte addition) was conducted on one cell of each design. In addition post cycle cell teardown and failure analysis were performed on the one cell of each design which did not have electrolyte added after failure. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25038
Using fiber electrode technology, currently produced by Bekaert Corporation (Bekaert), Electro Energy, Inc., (EEI) Mobile Energy Products Group (formerly, Eagle-Picher Technologies, LLC., Power Systems Department) in Colorado Springs, CO has demonstrated that it is feasible to manufacture flight weight nickel-hydrogen cells having about twice the specific energy (80 vs. 40 watt-hr/kg) as state-of-the-art nickel-hydrogen cells that are flown on geosynchronous communications satellites. Although lithium-ion battery technology has made large in-roads to replace the nickel-alkaline technology (nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride), the technology offered here competes with lithium-ion weight and offers alternatives not present in the lithium-ion chemistry such as ability to undergo continuous overcharge, reversal on discharge and sustain rate capability sufficient to start automotive and aircraft engines at subzero temperatures. In development to date seven 50 ampere-hour nickel-hydrogen have been constructed, acceptance tested and briefly tested in a low earth orbit (LEO) cycle regime. The effort was jointly funded by Electro Energy, Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH. Five of the seven cells have been shipped to NASA GRC for further cycle testing. Two of the cells experienced failure due to internal short circuits during initial cycle testing at EEL Destructive Physical Analysis (DPA) of one of the cells has shown the failure mode to be due to inadequate hydrogen catalyst electrodes that were not capacity balanced with the higher energy density nickel oxide electrodes. In the investigators opinion, rebuild of the cells using proper electrode balance would result in cells that could sustain over 30,000 cycles at moderate depths-of-discharge in a LEO regime or endure over 20 years of geosynchronous orbit (GEO) cycling while realizing a two-fold increase in specific energy for the battery or a 1.1 kg weight savings per 50 ampere-hour cell. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.
Fault-tolerance is the architectural attribute of a digital system that keeps the logic machine doing its specified tasks when its host, the physical system, suffers various kinds of failures of its components. A more general concept of fault-tolerance also includes human mistakes committed during software and hardware implementation and during man/machine interaction among the causes of faults that are to be tolerated by the logic machine. This paper discusses the concept of fault-tolerance, the reasons for its inclusion in digital system architecture, and the methods of its implementation. A chronological view of the evolution of fault-tolerant systems and an outline of some goals for its further development conclude the presentation.
Results of an investigation into the causes of the deterioration and premature failure of the grout under the hydrostatic bearing runner at DSS 14 are reported. Generic types of materials were screened and tested to find a grout material more resistive to the causes of grout failure. Emphasis was placed on the physical properties, strength, modulus of elasticity, and resistance to erosion and chemical attack by oil and unique requirements imposed by each material for mixing, placing, compacting, and cooling. The polymetric grout developed to replace the dry grout is described.
Various aspects of capacitor technologies and applications are discussed. Major emphasis is placed on: the causes of failures; accelerated testing; screening tests; destructive physical analysis; applications techniques; and improvements in capacitor capabilities.
Most database systems model the current state of a system of real world discrete and simple entities together with their relationships. By examining instead a database system that is a workbench and models more complicated entities, a fresh perspective is gained. Specifically, semantic integrity is analysed. Four aspects distinct from physical integrity are identified, namely - access, failure, concurrency and precedency. Access control is shown to be the consequence of semantic interdependency between data and its matching semantic routines. Failure, concurrency precedency controls are concerned with preventing processes interfering with each other. Precedency is a new concept in the database context. It expresses a constraint between processes that act on the database. As processes create, update and delete entities they in general obey a partial ordering imposed by the semantics of their actions. Precedency control ensures that data remains consistent with respect to this partial order.
Catastrophic failures of launch vehicles during launch and ascent are currently modeled using equivalent trinitrotoluene (TNT) estimates. This approach tends to over-predict the blast effect with subsequent impact to launch vehicle and crew escape requirements. Bangham Engineering, located in Huntsville, Alabama, assembled a less-conservative model based on historical failure and test data coupled with physical models and estimates. This white paper summarizes NESC's peer review of the Bangham analytical work completed to date.
The failure of numerical simulation to predict physical reality is often a direct consequence of the compounding effects of numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation and physical model uncertainty resulting from inexact knowledge and/or statistical representation. In this topical lecture, we briefly review systematic theories for quantifying numerical errors and restricted forms of model uncertainty occurring in simulations of fluid flow. A goal of this lecture is to elucidate both positive and negative aspects of applying these theories to practical fluid flow problems. Finite-element and finite-volume calculations of subsonic and hypersonic fluid flow are presented to contrast the differing roles of numerical error and model uncertainty. for these problems.
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This report reviews a number of theoretical matters in random process theory which can be applied to physical problems such as predicting peaks, structural fatigue damage, and catastrophic structural failures. The presentation emphasizes the basic assumptions which are involved, and discusses how to properly interpret the theoretical results. Various engineering examples are given as illustrations.