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Observed and Modeled HOCl Profiles in the Midlatitude Stratosphere: Implication for Ozone Loss

Vertical profiles of stratospheric HOCl calculated with a diurnal steady-state photochemical model that uses currently recommended reaction rates and photolysis cross sections underestimate observed profiles of HOCl obtained by two balloon-borne instruments, FIRS-2 (a far-infrared emission spectrometer) and MkIV (a mid-infrared, solar absorption spectrometer). Considerable uncertainty (a factor of two) persists in laboratory measurements of the rate constant (k(sub 1)) for the reaction ClO + HO2 yields HOCl + O2. Agreement between modeled and measured HOCl can be attained using a value of k(sub 1) from Stimpfle et al. (1979) that is about a factor-of-two faster than the currently recommended rate constant. Comparison of modeled and measured HOCl suggests that models using the currently recommended value for k(sub 1) may underestimate the role of the HOCl catalytic cycle for ozone depletion, important in the midlatitude lower stratosphere.

temperature dependence↗

Latitudinal variation of solar wind corotating stream interaction regions: Ulysses

Ulysses' initial transit tot high heliographic latitudes at a heliocentric distance of approximately 5 AU has revealed systematic effects in the latitudinal evolution of corotating interaction regions (CIRs). At a latitude corresponding roughly to, but slightly less than, the inferred tilt of the coronal streamer belt and embedded heliospheric current sheet, the strong forward shocks commonly associated with CIRs at lower latitudes disappeared almost entirely; however, the reverse shocks associated with these CIRs persisted to latitudes approximately 10 deg above the streamer belt. Systematic meridional flow deflections observed in association with the forward and reverse waves bounding the CIRs demonstrate that the above effect is the result of the fact that the forward waves propagate to lower latitudes and the reverse waves to higher latitudes with increasing heliocentric distance. These observational results are in excellent agreement with the predictions of a three-dimensional model of corotating solar wind flows that originate in a tilted dipole geometry back at the Sun.

Gosling, J. T.↗

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗

Unstructured Grid Adaptation: Status, Potential Impacts, and Recommended Investments Toward CFD Vision 2030

Unstructured grid adaptation is a powerful tool to control discretization error for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It has enabled key increases in the accuracy, automation, and capacity of some fluid simulation applications. Slotnick et al. provides a number of case studies in the CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences to illustrate the current state of CFD capability and capacity. The authors forecast the potential impact of emerging High Performance Computing (HPC) environments forecast in the year 2030 and identify that mesh generation and adaptivity continue to be significant bottlenecks in the CFD work flow. These bottlenecks may persist because very little government investment has been targeted in these areas. To motivate investment, the impacts of improved grid adaptation technologies are identified. The CFD Vision 2030 Study roadmap and anticipated capabilities in complementary disciplines are quoted to provide context for the progress made in grid adaptation in the past fifteen years, current status, and a forecast for the next fifteen years with recommended investments. These investments are specific to mesh adaptation and impact other aspects of the CFD process. Finally, a strategy is identified to diffuse grid adaptation technology into production CFD work flows.

Park, Michael A.↗

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

Space operations are on the cusp of a revolutionary new operational paradigm that leverages modular systems and recurring robotic visits to “Persistent Assets” enabling asset maintenance, repair, and enhancement. A “Persistent Asset” is defined here as any zero-g or planetary surface system that benefits from in-space assembly (ISA) or multiple visits for servicing, repairs, and upgrades. This term is an extension of the term “Persistent Platform” used by Ms. Pam Melroy at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to describe the vision of the Agency for a geosynchronous Earth orbiting platform. In this paper, the term “Persistent Asset” is introduced to encompass not only zero-g systems; such as telecommunication platforms, Earth observing science platform, Department of Defense platforms, and scientific telescope systems, but also planetary surface systems that support missions such as human outposts, science stations, and in-situ resource utilization systems. In contrast to the current state of the art, where space systems are typically launched as a single unit and operated without any further physical intervention after launch; future systems will be maintained, enhanced and reconfigured in-situ as new technology becomes available or mission needs change. Visits to the persistent asset can be regularly scheduled or dictated by funding constraints enabling a pay-as-you-go approach, which is largely independent of time-constraints and able to exploit launches of opportunity. In this paper, historical in-space assembly activities which relied heavily on astronaut extra-vehicular activity will be reviewed as well as early robotic assembly activities. These approaches will be contrasted with emerging modular approaches supporting realization of a new Persistent Asset operational paradigm. The paper will define attributes of the Persistent Asset paradigm and illustrate advantages by applying the paradigm to two relevant applications: 1) a large space telescope backing structure and 2) the backbone structure for a solar electric transport vehicle. Finally, recently developed unique Persistent Asset elements (modules, and interface approaches) will be described.

Doggett, William R.↗

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

Space operations are on the cusp of a revolutionary new operational paradigm that leverages modular systems and recurring robotic visits to “Persistent Assets” enabling asset maintenance, repair, and enhancement. A “Persistent Asset” is defined here as any zero-g or planetary surface system that benefits from in-space assembly (ISA) or multiple visits for servicing, repairs, and upgrades. This term is an extension of the term “Persistent Platform” used by Ms. Pam Melroy at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to describe the vision of the Agency for a geosynchronous Earth orbiting platform. In this paper, the term “Persistent Asset” is introduced to encompass not only zero-g systems; such as telecommunication platforms, Earth observing science platform, Department of Defense platforms, and scientific telescope systems, but also planetary surface systems that support missions such as human outposts, science stations, and in-situ resource utilization systems. In contrast to the current state of the art, where space systems are typically launched as a single unit and operated without any further physical intervention after launch; future systems will be maintained, enhanced and reconfigured in-situ as new technology becomes available or mission needs change. Visits to the persistent asset can be regularly scheduled or dictated by funding constraints enabling a pay-as-you-go approach, which is largely independent of time-constraints and able to exploit launches of opportunity. In this paper, historical in-space assembly activities which relied heavily on astronaut extra-vehicular activity will be reviewed as well as early robotic assembly activities. These approaches will be contrasted with emerging modular approaches supporting realization of a new Persistent Asset operational paradigm. The paper will define attributes of the Persistent Asset paradigm and illustrate advantages by applying the paradigm to two relevant applications: 1) a large space telescope backing structure and 2) the backbone structure for a solar electric transport vehicle. Finally, recently developed unique Persistent Asset elements (modules, and interface approaches) will be described.

William R Doggett↗

Auroral activity associated with Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the inner edge of the low-latitude boundary layer

Auroral activity occurred in the late afternoon sector (approx. 16 MLT) in the northern hemisphere during the passage at Earth of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988. The auroral activity consisted of a very dynamic display which was preceded and followed by quiet auroral displays. During the quiet displays, discrete rayed arcs aligned along the geomagnetic L shells were observed. In the active stage, rapidly evolving spiral forms centered on magnetic zenith were evident. The activity persisted for many minutes and was characterized by the absence of directed motion. They were strongly suggestive of intense filaments of upward field-aligned currents embedded in the large-scale region 1 current system. Distortions of the flux ropes as they connect from the equatorial magnetosphere to the ionosphere were witnessed. We assess as possible generating mechanisms three nonlocal sources known to be associated with field-aligned currents. Of these, partial compressions of the magnetosphere due to variations of solar wind dynamic pressure seem an unlikely source. The possibility that the auroral forms are due to reconnection is investigated but is excluded because the active aurora were observed on the closed field line region just equatorward of the convection reversal boundary. To support this conclusion further, we apply recent results on the mapping of ionospheric regions to the equatorial plane based on the Tsyganenko 1989 model (Kaufmann et al., 1993). We find that for comparable magnetic activity the aurora map to the equatorial plane at X(sub GSM) = approx. 3 R(sub E) and approx. 2 R(sub E) inward of the magnetopause, that is, the inner edge of the boundary layer close to dusk. Since the auroral forms are manifestly associated with magnetic field shear, a vortical motion at the equatorial end of the flux rope is indicated, making the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability acting at the inner edge of the low-latitude boundary layer the most probable generating source.

Farrugia, C. J.↗

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

Assessment of a National Airspace System Airborne Rerouting Tool

This paper presents the assessment of a National Airspace System airborne rerouting tool. The tool implements NASA’s Dynamic Weather Routes concept for wind-corrected flying-time savings during convective weather activity. A description of the system, as applicable to the entire United States airspace is provided, and results are presented demonstrating benefits of such a system from various Centers and airlines’ perspectives. Three cases for selection of reroute-return capture fix, which prevent unrealistically large controller clearances are presented. Results are shown for potential time- and fuel-savings (over 134,000 minutes and 4.2 million lbs. of fuel for over 35,000 proposed reroutes) and sector congestion reduction (over 121 hours in congested sectors) for all 20 Centers. The data used were for 30 days with highest delays attributable to convective weather from April to October of 2014. Other results show the evaluation of the maneuver or reroute start point (a parameter representing the amount of coordination time needed), which highlight the need for a controller-pilot data link. A data link would help achieve higher savings. The results for persistence time, beyond which the time-savings dwindle quickly, help determine the maximum coordination time required for each Center. Finally, an assessment from a current National Operations Manager at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center of the FAA is documented. Those suggestions could improve the efficiency of the air transportation system, especially with the expected improvements in the traffic flow management infrastructure. Currently, one industry partner and one airline are assessing this technology for commercial operational use.

Benefits Assessment↗

Occurrence frequencies of IMF triggered and nontriggered substorms

The occurrence of triggered and nontriggered substorm are examined in light of current interest in such issues as substorm identification, IMF By variations, and potentially undetected small-scale solar wind perturbation. Global substorms are identified using a sudden, persistent decrease in the AL index. The onset of this global expansion is taken to be the time of the Pi 2 burst nearest in time to the beginning of the AL, decrease. IMF triggers were identified both subjectively through visual scanning of the data and automatically with a computer algorithm. Both northward turnings of the IMF Bz and decreases in the amplitude of the By component were considered as possible triggers. Two different solar wind monitors were used in the investigation: IMP-8 in a circular orbit with a distance 12 to approx.35 Re to the Earth-Sun line and ISEE-2 in an elliptical orbit with a distance only 5 to approx.10 Re to the Earth-Sun line. The IMP-8 results show that the triggering probability does not depend on the distance of the monitor from the Earth-Sun line in the range 12-35 Re. The ISEE dataset shows that closer than 12 Re the triggering probability is the same as it is in the IMP-8 data set. Thus there appears to be no dependence of triggering on the location of the monitor provided it is within 35 Re of the Earth. We also demonstrate that including the By component does not significantly increase the probability of substorm triggering. Approximately 60% of all substorms appear to be triggered. Of the 40% for which we could not identify a trigger, 10% occurred while the IMF was northward. The data suggest that substorm onset is a consequence of an internal magnetospheric instability that is highly sensitive to changes in magnetospheric convection induced by a sudden change in the IMF, but that these changes are not always necessary.

Hsu, Tung-Shin↗

The Plant Water Management Experiments: Hydroponics 3 & 4

As humans consider longer-duration missions in space, NASA has identified production of fresh vegetables aboard spacecraft as beneficial for crew nutrition, mental wellbeing, and enabling bioregenerative life support (i.e., air, water, and waste processing). Current low-g plant growth techniques have successfully grown a variety of leafy and flowering plants. However, unique microgravity fluidics challenges to maintain plant moisture levels persist which hamper overall system reliability. The Plant Water Management (PWM) experiments seek to demonstrate low-cost, low-mass, reusable plant growth systems that leverage recent advances in low-g capillary fluidics phenomena to provide routine, largely passive, water delivery to plants. This paper presents findings from a series of PWM-Hydroponics 3 & 4 experiments, which were collected during three ISS flight operations that occurred in March, May, and July of 2021. Open hydroponic capillary channel flows with synthetic evapo-transpiring plant models were used. Tests demonstrated flow stability for single and parallel channel flow configurations across a range of flow rates, plant types, and plant arrangements. Technology demonstrations of both passive aeration and bubble phase separation are reported. We provide details of the data reduction and archive. Insights from the successful flight demonstrations provide a foundation from which follow-on PWM-Hydroponics 5 & 6 experiments on ISS, potentially incorporate living plants, are being considered. Xx Summary of positives and negatives..

Marc B. Wasserman↗

Noble Gases and Stable Isotopes Track the Origin and Early Evolution of the Venus Atmosphere

The composition the atmosphere of Venus results from the integration of many processes entering into play over the entire geological history of the planet. Determining the elemental abundances and isotopic ratios of noble gases (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe) and stable isotopes (H, C, N, O, S) in the Venus atmosphere is a high priority scientific target since it could open a window on the origin and early evolution of the entire planet. This chapter provides an overview of the existing dataset on noble gases and stable isotopes in the Venus atmosphere. The current state of knowledge on the origin and early and long-term evolution of the Venus atmosphere deduced from this dataset is summarized. A list of persistent and new unsolved scientific questions stemming from recent studies of planetary atmospheres (Venus, Earth and Mars) are described. Important mission requirements pertaining to the measurement of volatile elements in the atmosphere of Venus as well as potential technical difficulties are outlined.

noble gases↗

Investigation of Unsteady Flow Field in a Low-Speed One and a Half Stage Axial Compressor: Effects of Tip Gap Size On the Tip Clearance Flow Structure at Near Stall Operation - Part 2

The primary focus of this paper is to investigate the effect of rotor tip gap size on how the rotor unsteady tip clearance flow structure changes in a low speed one and half stage axial compressor at near stall operation (for example, where maximum pressure rise is obtained). A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is applied to calculate the unsteady flow field at this flow condition with both a small and a large tip gaps. The numerically obtained flow fields at the small clearance matches fairly well with the available initial measurements obtained at the Johns Hopkins University with 3-D unsteady PIV in an index-matched test facility which renders the compressor blades and casing optically transparent. With this setup, the unsteady velocity field in the entire flow domain, including the flow inside the tip gap, can be measured. The numerical results are also compared with previously published measurements in a low speed single stage compressor (Maerz et al. [2002]). The current study shows that, with the smaller rotor tip gap, the tip clearance vortex moves to the leading edge plane at near stall operating condition, creating a nearly circumferentially aligned vortex that persists around the entire rotor. On the other hand, with a large tip gap, the clearance vortex stays inside the blade passage at near stall operation. With the large tip gap, flow instability and related large pressure fluctuation at the leading edge are observed in this one and a half stage compressor. Detailed examination of the unsteady flow structure in this compressor stage reveals that the flow instability is due to shed vortices near the leading edge, and not due to a three-dimensional separation vortex originating from the suction side of the blade, which is commonly referred to during a spike-type stall inception. The entire tip clearance flow is highly unsteady. Many vortex structures in the tip clearance flow, including the sheet vortex system near the casing, interact with each other. The core tip clearance vortex, which is formed with the rotor tip gap flows near the leading edge, is also highly unsteady or intermittent due to pressure oscillations near the leading edge and varies from passage to passage. For the current compressor stage, the evidence does not seem to support that a classical vortex breakup occurs in any organized way, even with the large tip gap. Although wakes from the IGV influence the tip clearance flow in the rotor, the major characteristics of rotor tip clearance flows in isolated or single stage rotors are observed in this one and a half stage axial compressor.

Unsteady↗

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗

Conditions of the Toll-Like Receptors System of the Human Innate Immunity Cells During the Long-Term Isolation

During long duration missions onboard the International Space Station (ISS), alterations in T cell function and plasma cytokine profiles have been observed. Recent studies involving pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) have established that adaptation of innate immunity to long duration space flight occurs through changes in signal PRRs, Toll-like receptors (TLRs). Despite the fact that fundamental research of PRR molecular biology is far from complete, there are an increasing number of arguments confirming the important role of this system in regulating the initial stages of the adaptive immune response, as well as in the formation of autoimmune and allergic diseases. Long duration isolation is widely used by NASA as an analog for space flight with previous missions including several Antarctic bases, an undersea research station (NEEMO), and other isolation chambers. ‘SIRIUS’ is a multi-compartment pressurized facility at the IMBP in Moscow, Russia, in which subjects will spend 8 months executing tasks similar to those performed by astronauts in space. Prolonged isolation studies like SIRIUS replicate many of the influences expected to occur during long duration spaceflight missions including isolation, stress, confinement, and living in remote conditions. The immune study to be performed on the upcoming SIRIUS mission is being led by Dr. Sergey Ponomarev at the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow, Russia. The NASA JSC Immunology lab will provide analysis of immune cell function, serum cytokines and stress hormones, and salivary cortisol, cytokines, and viruses. This study will be conducted with SIRIUS subjects under the auspices of the parent program. The goal of the study is to evaluate the effect of the 8-month isolation mission on components of human innate immunity at the molecular and cellular level. Successful implementation and completion of this project will provide a unique assortment of new data, significantly expanding the current understanding of the molecular and cellular changes in TLRs during long-term isolation. We hypothesize that mission-like isolation in the Russian NEK facility, consisting of circadian misalignment, isolation, stress, and ‘station lifestyle’, will result in a pattern of immune dysregulation similar to that observed in astronauts onboard ISS. This pattern of alterations can be summarized as phenotypic changes (altered distribution of peripheral cytotoxic, central memory, CD8+ T cell subsets), reductions in T cell function, alterations in plasma cytokine profiles (increased inflammatory and certain chemokines), and reductions in mitogen stimulated cytokine profiles (spans Th1, Th2, Th17). We further hypothesize that these immune changes will correlate with the reactivation of latent herpesviruses (which persists during orbital flight), to be used as measurable adverse clinical manifestation or with other observed symptomology. The SIRIUS-21 mission began in November of 2021 and successfully concluded with the crew emerging in July of 2022. Currently, the logistics of shipping the samples from Russia to the United States is being organized.

Cody L Gutierrez↗

Heat treatment effects in Cu2S-CdS heterojunction photovoltaic cells

The optical and electronic properties of single crystal Cu2S-CdS photovoltaic cells were investigated. In these cells trapped charge near the interface which is manifested by a persistent increase in junction capacitance (the photocapacitance) plays a significant role in determining the carrier transport properties. It was found that the severe degradation in short-circuit current observed in heat-treated cells can be separated into two components: (1) a relatively small thermal component occurring on heat-treatment in the dark, and (2) a much larger degradation caused by exposure to light at room temperature. By a short additional heat-treatment above approximately 100 C the cell can be completely restored to its condition before the optically caused degradation with no effect on the depletion layer width.

Fahrenbruch, A. L.↗

PN velocity beneath Western New Mexico and Eastern Arizona

The experiment involved observing Pn arrivals on an areal array of 7 seismic stations located in the transition zone and along the Jemez lineament. Explosions in coal and copper mines in New Mexico and Arizona were used as energy sources as well as military detonations at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, Yuma, Arizona, and the Nevada Test Site. Very preliminary results suggest a Pn velocity of 7.94 km/s (with a fairly large uncertainty) beneath the study area. The Pn delay times, which can be converted to estimates of crustal thickness given knowledge of the velocity structure of the crust increase both to the north and east of Springerville, Arizona. As a constraint on the velocity of Pn, researchers analyzed the reversed refraction line GNOME-HARDHAT which passes through Springerville oriented NW to SE. This analysis resulted in a Pn velocity of 7.9-8.0 km/s for the transition zone. These preliminary results suggest that a normal Pn velocity might persist even though the crust thins (from north to south) by 15 km along the length of the Arizona-New Mexico border. If the upper mantle is currently hot anywhere in western New Mexico or eastern Arizona then the dimensions of the heat source (or sources) might be small compared to the intra-station distances of the seismic arrays used to estimate the velocity of Pn.

Jaksha, L. H.↗