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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Micropolar deep material network

This study extends the Deep Material Network (DMN), a physics-informed machine learning framework, to predict the homogenized mechanical response of composite materials with micropolar (Cosserat-type) constitutive behavior. This extension incorporates microstructure-dependent size effects, enabling accurate, efficient, and size-aware predictions for composites with complex internal architectures. While traditional, direct numerical simulation micropolar models effectively capture size effects by introducing extra local degrees of freedom, they bring significant computational challenges, particularly for multiscale analyses relevant to engineering applications. The micropolar DMN developed in this paper achieves high accuracy while significantly reducing computation time compared to micropolar direct numerical simulations. This advancement enables multiscale analyses and parameter studies that were previously impractical, such as high-cycle fatigue simulations and comprehensive investigations of internal length scale effects notably in size-dependent plastic response and the optimization of lattice structures. By uniting microstructure-sensitive modeling, physics-driven learning, and scalable surrogate modeling, the micropolar DMN paves the way for accelerated material design, large-scale parametric studies, and the reliable incorporation of size-dependent effects across a wide range of engineering applications, including optimization and next-generation composite design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An open source analysis framework for large-scale building energy modeling

Full integration of building energy modelling into the design and retrofit process has long been a goal of building scientists and practitioners. However, significant barriers still exist. Among them are the lack of available: (1) configurable technology stacks for performing both small- and large-scale analyses, (2) different classes of algorithms compatible with common design workflows, and (3) analysis tools for effectively visualizing large-scale simulation results. This article discusses the OpenStudio® Analysis Framework: a scalable analysis framework for building energy modelling that was developed to overcome the three barriers listed above. The framework is open-source and scalable to facilitate wider adoption and has a clearly defined application programming interface upon which other applications can be built. It runs on high-performance computing systems, within cloud infrastructure, and on laptops, and uses a common workflow to enable different classes of algorithms. Lessons learned from previous development efforts are also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine learning for nonintrusive model order reduction of the parametric inviscid transonic flow past an airfoil

Fluid flow in the transonic regime finds relevance in aerospace engineering, particularly in the design of commercial air transportation vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics models of transonic flow for aerospace applications are computationally expensive to solve because of the high degrees of freedom as well as the coupled nature of the conservation laws. While these issues pose a bottleneck for the use of such models in aerospace design, computational costs can be significantly minimized by constructing special, structure-preserving surrogate models called reduced-order models. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to construct reduced-order models via deep neural networks and we demonstrate its ability to preserve accuracy with a significantly lower computational cost. In addition, our machine learning methodology is physics-informed and constrained through the utilization of an interpretable encoding by way of proper orthogonal decomposition. Application to the inviscid transonic flow past the RAE2822 airfoil under varying freestream Mach numbers and angles of attack, as well as airfoil shape parameters with a deforming mesh, shows that the proposed approach adapts to high-dimensional parameter variation well. Notably, the proposed framework precludes the knowledge of numerical operators utilized in the data generation phase, thereby demonstrating its potential utility in the fast exploration of design space for diverse engineering applications. Comparison against a projection-based nonintrusive model order reduction method demonstrates that the proposed approach produces comparable accuracy and yet is orders of magnitude computationally cheap to evaluate, despite being agnostic to the physics of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mesoscale Linear Elastic Modeling and Homogenization of Marine Energy Composites

The design of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC)-based components for marine energy applications necessitates a fundamental understanding of material properties and the resulting geometry to predict long-term performance. In this work, we present a modeling workflow to predict linear elastic and diffusive bulk properties at the mesoscale for an idealized geometry based on knowledge of fiber and resin properties. A parametric study was performed to identify the key model input parameters that influence bulk properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate how bulk properties can be leveraged in high-fidelity image-based simulations, where imperfections in tow geometry and voids captured during X-ray computed tomography imaging are explicitly represented within the simulation. Bulk properties of interest include moduli, Poisson’s ratios, hygroscopic swelling, diffusivity, and moisture uptake, which are key parameters for characterizing FRC performance within marine environments. Modeling predictions agreed well with experimental data, except for estimating swelling coefficients, likely due to crack accumulation as a function of moisture uptake. The mesoscale modeling workflow ultimately highlights a versatile framework for understanding the influence of material and geometric properties, which can be leveraged to rapidly assess new FRC-based components.

computational mechanics↗

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was implemented to offer an efficient framework for determining material characteristics from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enable parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM). SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography or other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was created to offer an efficient framework for determining material properties from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enables parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM) into our image segmentation workflow. SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography and other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗

Low-level liquid cloud properties during ORACLES retrieved using airborne polarimetric measurements and a neural network algorithm

In this study we developed a neural network (NN) that can be used to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from multiangular and multispectral polarimetric remote sensing observations. This effort builds upon our previous work, which explored the sensitivity of neural network input, architecture, and other design requirements for this type of remote sensing problem. In particular this work introduces a framework for appropriately weighting total and polarized reflectances, which have vastly different magnitudes and measurement uncertainties. The NN is trained using an artificial training set and applied to research scanning polarimeter (RSP) data obtained during the ORACLES field campaign (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS). The polarimetric RSP observations are unique in that they observe the same cloud from a very large number of angles within a variety of spectral bands, resulting in a large dataset that can be explored rapidly with a NN approach. The usefulness of applying a NN to a dataset such as this one stems from the possibility of rapidly obtaining a retrieval that could be subsequently applied as a first guess for slower but more rigorous physical-based retrieval algorithms. This approach could be particularly advantageous for more complicated atmospheric retrievals – such as when an aerosol layer lies above clouds like in ORACLES. For RSP observations obtained during ORACLES 2016, comparisons between the NN and standard parametric polarimetric (PP) cloud retrieval give reasonable results for droplet effective radius (r(e): R=0.756, RMSE=1.74 µm) and cloud optical thickness (τ: R=0.950, RMSE=1.82). This level of statistical agreement is shown to be similar to comparisons between the two most well-established cloud retrievals, namely, the polarimetric and the bispectral total reflectance cloud retrievals. The NN retrievals from the ORACLES 2017 dataset result in retrievals of r(e) (R=0.54, RMSE=4.77 µm) and τ (R=0.785, RMSE=5.61) that behave much more poorly. In particular we found that our NN retrieval approach does not perform well for thin (τ<3), inhomogeneous, or broken clouds. We also found that correction for above-cloud atmospheric absorption improved the NN retrievals moderately – but retrievals without this correction still behaved similarly to existing cloud retrievals with a slight systematic offset.

SPECTRAL-RESOLUTION LIDAR↗

Multibody for Everybody (M4E) - A Linearization Approach to Enable Frequency Domain Analysis, Time Integration and Control Co-Design

1.1 Background/Objectives: Marine energy represents a promising yet underexploited source of power. To increase the harvested power, significant efforts have been made to improve wave energy converter (WEC) modeling capabilities and optimize power take-off (PTO) performance; however, these efforts have often treated WEC dynamics, PTO design, and controller development sequentially. In contrast, control co-design (CCD) is emerging as a promising strategy to address these issues directly, creating a growing need for fast analysis tools suitable for repeated simulation and parametric studies [1]. To support this need, this work presents the Multibody for Everybody (M4E) [2] linearization module, which employs a symbolic toolbox to provide deeper insight of WEC design parameters. The objective is to demonstrate that a minimal-coordinate linearization of articulated WEC dynamics can provide accurate wave response predictions and substantial computational savings relative to nonlinear time-domain simulation, while preserving compatibility with broader wave-energy analysis workflows, enabling CCD. 1.2 Approach/Activities: The proposed approach linearizes the equations of motion, generated by M4E, in minimal coordinates about a selected operating point and combines the resulting system with frequencydomain hydrodynamic terms to incorporate the reduced mass, damping, stiffness, and forcing operators. The linearized model is used for both impedance-based response amplitude operator (RAO) prediction and rapid regular-wave time integration. The methodology is demonstrated on a single-flap device and a FOSWEC configuration, with linearized M4E responses compared against the corresponding nonlinear M4E simulations and WEC-Sim results. Regular-wave time histories, RAO trends, and runtime differences are assessed. The framework is also compatible with broader wave-energy workflows, including coupling to WecOptTool, although that capability is not the focus of this work [3]. 1.3 Results/Lessons: The linearized M4E model reproduces key regularwave response characteristics such as integration and Response Amplitude over multiple frequencies. This module matches nonlinear M4E and WEC-Sim results while substantially reducing integration cost. Thus, the proposed framework can serve as a rapid analysis layer for articulated WEC design, parameter studies, and controls-oriented workflows. The analysis is most appropriate in the near-equilibrium regime, about the linearization point.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗

OTIS 3.2 Software Released

Trajectory, mission, and vehicle engineers concern themselves with finding the best way for an object to get from one place to another. These engineers rely upon special software to assist them in this. For a number of years, many engineers have used the OTIS program for this assistance. With OTIS, an engineer can fully optimize trajectories for airplanes, launch vehicles like the space shuttle, interplanetary spacecraft, and orbital transfer vehicles. OTIS provides four modes of operation, with each mode providing successively stronger optimization capability. The most powerful mode uses a mathematical method called implicit integration to solve what engineers and mathematicians call the optimal control problem. OTIS 3.2, which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center, is the latest release of this industry workhorse and features new capabilities for parameter optimization and mission design. OTIS stands for Optimal Control by Implicit Simulation, and it is implicit integration that makes OTIS so powerful at solving trajectory optimization problems. Why is this so important? The optimization process not only determines how to get from point A to point B, but it can also determine how to do this with the least amount of propellant, with the lightest starting weight, or in the fastest time possible while avoiding certain obstacles along the way. There are numerous conditions that engineers can use to define optimal, or best. OTIS provides a framework for defining the starting and ending points of the trajectory (point A and point B), the constraints on the trajectory (requirements like "avoid these regions where obstacles occur"), and what is being optimized (e.g., minimize propellant). The implicit integration method can find solutions to very complicated problems when there is not a lot of information available about what the optimal trajectory might be. The method was first developed for solving two-point boundary value problems and was adapted for use in OTIS. Implicit integration usually allows OTIS to find solutions to problems much faster than programs that use explicit integration and parametric methods. Consequently, OTIS is best suited to solving very complicated and highly constrained problems.

Riehl, John P.↗

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling K. Han Kim (Leidos, Inc.) Elizabeth A. Benson (KBR, Inc.) Sudhakar L. Rajulu (NASA Johnson Space Center) Spacesuits are required to accommodate safe operations for astronauts across gender and a wide variety of body shapes and sizes. This goal has been of particular importance given the increasing diversity of NASA crewmembers for upcoming Missions. While testing with design prototypes is a critical step for spacesuit development, iterative mockup design, fabrication, and human subject tests can be extremely costly and time consuming. Moreover, testing with a limited subject pool has often raised questions for validity, as test subjects need to represent the entire astronaut population, not only of the past or current, but also the future. This study is aimed at demonstrating how digital human modeling (DHM) tools have been built and directly supported NASA spacesuit developments. With DHM, the computer aided design (CAD) model of a spacesuit was integrated with human body models. Two use scenarios are presented in this paper, namely fit and mobility. For fit assessments, the suit-to-body contact and compression patterns were estimated using 3D human body scan models virtually wearing a spacesuit model. A statistical fit classifier was made from the contact patterns and applied against a large database of body scans (N=2,500). With this technique, the NASA reference design spacesuit Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU)was verified to accommodate 90% of the astronaut-like population, with the critical dimensions covering 1stto 99thpercentiles of the target body measurements. A similar technique assessed XEMU mobility. The maximum reach envelopes were considered, within which the work objects and critical hardware interfaces should be located for safe and ergonomic operations. While the reach envelope geometry varies significantly with the suit wearer’s body size and strength, the existing test data did not include the subjects critically required to define suit mobility requirements, such as very small females or large males. Using the xEMU virtual model kinematically simulated and permuted for a hypothetical wearer, however, the existing data were statistically transformed and scaled. This method enabled for a parametric estimation of the reach envelopes from the 1stpercentile female or 99thpercentile male. The outcome was successfully incorporated for requirement developments. With the new DHM tools, human integration of the spacesuit was structurally simulated and predictively assessed, which would have been otherwise impossible. Also, the needs for iterative mockup and subject tests were significantly reduced, which resulted in time and cost saving. Additional work is in progress to integrate additional vehicles, tools, and hardware with DHM framework.

K Han Kim↗

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Rooftop Photovoltaic: Maximizing Solar Production and Operational Cost Savings in Residential Communities

Optimizing the placement of photovoltaic (PV) panels on residential buildings has the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency benefits to both homeowners and communities. Strategic PV placement can lower electricity costs by reducing the electricity fed from the grid during on-peak hours, while maintaining PV panel efficiency in terms of the amount of solar radiation received. In this article, we present a framework that identifies the ideal location of PV panels on residential rooftops. Our framework combines energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to inform PV placement as it relates to and affects the entire community (in terms of both energy use and financial cost), as well as individual buildings. Ensuring that our framework accounts for shading from nearby buildings, different utility rate structures, and different buildings’ energy demand profiles means that existing communities and future housing developments can be optimized for energy savings and PV efficiency. The framework comprises two workflows, each contributing to optimal PV placement with a unique target: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency (i.e., solar generation) and (b) minimizing operational energy cost considering utility rate structures for operational energy. We apply our framework to a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to demonstrate the optimal PV placement, considering the two workflow targets. Here, we present our results and illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Noise and Fuel Burn Reduction Potential of an Innovative Subsonic Transport Configuration

A study is presented for the noise and fuel burn reduction potential of an innovative double deck concept aircraft with two three-shaft direct-drive turbofan engines. The engines are mounted from the fuselage so that the engine inlet is over the main wing. It is shown that such an aircraft can achieve a cumulative Effective Perceived Noise Level (EPNL) about 28 dB below the current aircraft noise regulations of Stage 4. The combination of high bypass ratio engines and advanced wing design with laminar flow control technologies provide fuel burn reduction and low noise levels simultaneously. For example, the fuselage mounted engine position provides more than 4 EPNLdB of noise reduction by shielding the inlet radiated noise. To identify the potential effect of noise reduction technologies on this concept, parametric studies are presented to reveal the system level benefits of various emerging noise reduction concepts, for both engine and airframe noise reduction. These concepts are discussed both individually to show their respective incremental noise reduction potential and collectively to assess their aggregate effects on the total noise. Through these concepts approximately about 8 dB of additional noise reduction is possible, bringing the cumulative noise level of this aircraft to 36 EPNLdB below Stage 4, if the entire suite of noise reduction technologies would mature to practical application. In a final step, an estimate is made for this same aircraft concept but with higher bypass ratio, geared, turbofan engines. With this geared turbofan propulsion system, the noise is estimated to reach as low as 40-42 dB below Stage 4 with a fuel burn reduction of 43-47% below the 2005 best-in-class aircraft baseline. While just short of the NASA N+2 goals of 42 dB and 50% fuel burn reduction, for a 2025 in service timeframe, this assessment shows that this innovative concept warrants refined study. Furthermore, this design appears to be a viable potential future passenger aircraft, not only in meeting the regulatory requirements, but also in competing with aircraft of different advanced designs within this N+2 timeframe and goal framework.

Guo, Yueping↗

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools

For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Nucleon Mass and Charges with Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics

Neutrino oscillation experiments are designed to measure neutrino masses and mixing parameters by scattering them off nuclei such as carbon, oxygen, and argon in detectors. Predictions of neutrino-nuclei cross sections from the Standard Model are needed to extract these parameters, but their theoretical uncertainties remain large due to the complexity of nuclear and hadronic physics. This situation needs to be improved in order to satisfy the precision needs of future experiments.In this dissertation, we focus on working towards a first-principles calculation of the nucleon axial form factor with lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Nucleon axial form factor, which parametrizes the weak responses of a proton or neutron, is difficult to measure experimentally, and it is a dominant uncertainty in neutrino-nuclei cross-section calculations for incoming neutrino energies at around 1 GeV. So a theoretical calculation with lattice QCD provides a non-ambiguous determination of the form factor that could help reducing the uncertainty.The notorious signal-to-noise problem renders calculations of nucleon observables computationally intensive in lattice QCD. In this work, we investigate the use of staggered fermions in nucleon calculations. Staggered fermions are the most computationally efficient fermion discretization in lattice field theory, but certain theoretical issues have so far prevented their applications to nucleon physics. As a stepping stone towards a full calculation of the nucleon axial form factor, this dissertation provides a comprehensive theoretical framework on how to calculate the nucleon mass, vector charge, and axial charge with staggered fermions, together with numerical results demonstrating the methodology. This framework can be generalized to the form factor calculation that will appear in the near future.

Lin, Yin↗