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At least 145 records · Page 8

Operational Experience of the NML Cryogenic Plant at the FAST Test Facility

The NML cryogenic plant cools two individually cryostated superconducting radio frequency (SRF) capture cavities and one prototype ILC cryomodule with eight SRF cavities. This complex accelerates electrons at 150 MeV for the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) ring, located at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility. The cryogenic plant is composed of two nitrogen precooled Tevatron satellite refrigerators, two Mycom 2016C compressors, a cryogenic distribution system, a Frick purifier compressor, two charcoal bed adsorber purifiers, and a liquid ring vacuum pump with a roots booster. The SRF cavities are immersed in a 2.0 K liquid helium bath, shielded with a 5 K gaseous helium shield and a liquid nitrogen cooled thermal shield. Since 2019, this R&D accelerator complex has gone through four science runs with an average duration of 12 months. Operational experience for each run, availability metrics, performance data and common outages are presented in this paper.

Wallace, Timothy [Fermilab] (ORCID:000900051589302↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

Case Studies and Parametric Analysis of Heliostat Performance With a Tradeoff-Informed Technoeconomic Analysis Metric

The Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) was launched in 2021 to advance heliostat technology. Here this work presents a collection of baseline case studies for the technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of candidate heliostat improvements for concentrating solar power (CSP) and concentrated solar thermal (CST) systems that employ central receivers. The case studies we develop include a large-scale CSP plant, a smaller, modular CSP plant, and a small CST plant used for industrial process heat. In this work, we also propose a novel metric for TEA of a plant component technology that recasts relative changes in levelized system costs into component-specific capital cost budgets. This measure, which we refer to as the equivalent breakeven installed cost, is the maximum budget for the technology component that leads to improved levelized costs. Finally, we perform a parametric analysis to show the impact of candidate technologies on the levelized cost of heat and, by extension, equivalent breakeven installed cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Field Layout and Aimpoint Strategy Optimization

The existing methods that determine heliostat aiming strategies for concentrating solar power (CSP) central receiver plants typically use heuristics and/or are computationally expensive, and they lack flexibility for different desired flux profiles and receiver geometries. Because of the interaction between layout and aimpoint strategy, considering the former without accounting for the latter may yield solutions with superfluous heliostats that cannot be used efficiently without compromising receiver flux constraints. To that end, we develop a software decision tool that uses innovative optimization methods to both optimize aimpoint strategies and improve candidate layouts for the solar collection field of a CSP central receiver plant. A CSP plant’s effectiveness relies on the optical efficiency of the solar field, which may be limited by losses due to (i) the cosine effect, (ii) atmospheric attenuation, (iii) interference (i.e., shading and blocking) between heliostats, (iv) spillage as a result of heliostat positioning and geometry, and (iv) some heliostats’ inability to direct irradiance to the receiver without damage due to excessive thermal flux. The goal of this work is to obtain optimized aiming strategies and improved solar field layouts that reduce capital cost and increase field optical efficiency and utilization, while meeting the power requirements of a given CSP receiver design. We formulate the aimpoint optimization problem as a mixed-integer linear programming model, which we then decompose into submodels that we solve in parallel. The decomposition subdivides the solar field into sections, and aimpoint strategies for each section are obtained independently of the others. To improve existing layouts, we develop a utilization-weighted efficiency metric that we use to relocate heliostats to sections of the solar field with similar efficiency and higher utilization. Finally, to connect our software to high-fidelity flux models, we develop a Python application programming interface for SolarPILOT, a mature software package that characterizes solar field performance and generates the heliostat layouts and flux maps that serve as input to our models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robust Algorithm for Estimating Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in Inland and Nearshore Coastal Waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N > 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from b(sub bp) via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m (exp 3)], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e., from 10 to > 100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to < 20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads.

Total suspended solids↗

Point-Focus Concentration Compact Telescoping Array: Extreme Environments Solar Power Base Phase Final Report

Orbital ATK, in partnership with Mark ONeill LLC (MOLLC), has developed a novel solar array platform, PFC-CTA, which provides a significant advance in performance and cost reduction compared to all currently available space solar systems. PFC refers to the Point Focus Concentration of light provided by MOLLCs thin, flat Fresnel optics. These lenses focus light to a point of approximately 100 times the intensity of the ambient light, onto a solar cell of approximately 125th the size of the lens. CTA stands for Compact Telescoping Array, which is the solar array blanket structural platform originally devised by NASA and currently being advanced by Orbital ATK and partners under NASA and AFRL funding to a projected TRL 5+ by late-2018.The NASA Game Changing Development Extreme Environment Solar Power (EESP) Base Phase study has enabled Orbital ATK to refine component designs, perform component level and system performance analyses, and test prototype hardware of the key elements of PFC-CTA, and increased the TRL of PFC-specific technology elements to TRL 4. Key performance metrics currently projected are as follows: Scalability from 5 kW to 300 kW per wing (AM0); Specific Power 500 Wkg (AM0); Stowage Efficiency 100 kWm3; 5:1 margin on pointing tolerance vs. capability; 50 launched cost savings; Wide range of operability between Venus and Saturn by active andor passive thermal management.

McEachen, Michael E.↗

WFIRST CGI: Prism and Polarizer Characterization Modes

As part of its technology demonstration, the WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) will demonstrate point source spectroscopy and polarization measurements of disks. The specific implementation of spectroscopy is a zero-deviation Amici prism and slit to be placed on the planet after high contrast has been achieved by CGI. The polarization optics are a set of Wollaston prisms so that orthogonal polarization states can be measured simultaneously. The CGI spectral characterization mode, being designed and built and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), has a spectral resolution of R50 and is designed to accommodate a 15% bandpass spanning 610-785nm. In order to recover Stokes information, there are two sets of Wollaston prisms clocked 45 degrees with respect to one another with each measurement taken in series. The Wollaston design and optical elements are a contribution by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency, with final alignment and testing being done at GSFC. The spectroscopy mode is designed to target Methane absorption features around 730nm, keeping the spectral resolution as low as possible to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and hence reduce detection time. We highlight the requirements for these modes and address the challenge of on-orbit spectral calibration for a deployable slit in the presence of pointing drifts. Of unique interest is how the observatory error budget couples into good stellar spectrum calibration and subsequent speckle subtraction. We also provide further detail on the optomechanical design, its stability based on thermal and structural predictions, modeled performance, and operations concept. These performance metrics are simulated to demonstrate how a slit located at an arbitrary field point is homed onto the planet and converted to a calibrated spectrum.

Tyler D Groff↗

Retrieval of Aerosol Optical Properties From GOCI-II Observations: Continuation of Long-Term Geostationary Aerosol Monitoring Over East Asia

Since the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) was successfully launched in 2010, the GOCI Yonsei aerosol retrieval (YAER) algorithm has been continuously updated to retrieve hourly aerosol optical properties. GOCI-II has 4 more channels including UV, finer spatial resolution (250 m), and daily full disk coverage as compared to GOCI, and was launched in February 2020, onboard the GEO-KOMPSAT-2B (GK-2B) satellite. In this study, we extended the YAER algorithm to GOCI-II data based on its improved performance in many aspects and present the first results of aerosol optical properties retrieved from GOCI-II data. Utilizing the overlapping period between the GOCI-II and GOCI in geostationary Earth orbit, we present GOCI-II aerosol retrievals for high aerosol-loading cases over East Asia and show that these have a consistent spatial distribution with those from GOCI. Furthermore, GOCI-II provides AOD at an even higher spatial resolution, revealing finer changes in aerosol concentrations. Validation results for one year data show that the GOCI-II AOD has a correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a ratio within the expected error (EE) of 59.4 % when compared with the aerosol robotic network (AERONET) data. We compared statistical metrics for the GOCI and GOCI-II AODs to assess the consistency between the two datasets. In addition, it was found that there is a strong correlation between the two datasets from the comparison of gridded GOCI and GOCI-II AOD products. It is expected that data from GOCI-II will continue long-term aerosol records with high accuracy that can be used to address air-quality issues over East Asia.

AOD↗

A Generalized Transformer-Based Pulse Detection Algorithm

Pulse-like signals are ubiquitous in the field of single molecule analysis, e.g., electrical or optical pulses caused by analyte translocations in nanopores. The primary challenge in processing pulse-like signals is to capture the pulses in noisy backgrounds, but current methods are subjectively based on a user-defined threshold for pulse recognition. Here, we propose a generalized machine-learning based method, named pulse detection transformer (PETR), for pulse detection. PETR determines the start and end time points of individual pulses, thereby singling out pulse segments in a time-sequential trace. It is objective without needing to specify any threshold. It provides a generalized interface for downstream algorithms for specific application scenarios. PETR is validated using both simulated and experimental nanopore translocation data. It returns a competitive performance in detecting pulses through assessing them with several standard metrics. Finally, the generalization nature of the PETR output is demonstrated using two representative algorithms for feature extraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Point-Focus Concentration Compact Telescoping Array: EESP Option 1 Phase Final Report for Public Release

Orbital ATK, in partnership with Mark O’Neill LLC (MOLLC) and SolAero Technologies Corp., has developed a novel solar array platform, PFC-CTA, which provides a significant advance in performance and cost reduction compared to all currently available space solar systems. “PFC” refers to the Point Focus Concentration of light provided by MOLLC’s thin, flat Fresnel optics. These lenses focus light to a point of approximately 100 times the intensity of the ambient light, onto a solar cell of approximately 1/25th the size of the lens. “CTA” stands for Compact Telescoping Array1, which is the solar array blanket structural platform originally devised by NASA and currently being advanced by Orbital ATK and partners under NASA and AFRL funding to a projected TRL 5+ by late-2018. The NASA Game Changing Development Extreme Environment Solar Power (EESP) Option 1 Phase study has enabled Orbital ATK to generate and refine component designs, perform component level and system performance analyses, and test prototype hardware of the key elements of PFC-CTA, and increased the TRL of PFC-specific technology elements to TRL ~5. Key performance metrics currently projected are as follows: Scalability from < 5 kW to >300 kW per wing (AM0); Specific Power > 250 W/kg (BoL, AM0); Stowage Efficiency > 60 kW/m3; 5:1 margin on pointing tolerance vs. capability; >50% launched cost savings; Wide range of operability between Venus and Saturn by active and/or passive thermal management.

Mceachen, Michael E.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2013

Topics include: Single-Photon-Sensitive HgCdTe Avalanche Photodiode Detector; Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering Using Silica Whispering-Gallery Mode Resonators; 3D Hail Size Distribution Interpolation/Extrapolation Algorithm; Color-Changing Sensors for Detecting the Presence of Hypergolic Fuels; Artificial Intelligence Software for Assessing Postural Stability; Transformers: Shape-Changing Space Systems Built with Robotic Textiles; Fibrillar Adhesive for Climbing Robots; Using Pre-Melted Phase Change Material to Keep Payloads in Space Warm for Hours without Power; Development of a Centrifugal Technique for the Microbial Bioburden Analysis of Freon (CFC-11); Microwave Sinterator Freeform Additive Construction System (MS-FACS); DSP/FPGA Design for a High-Speed Programmable S-Band Space Transceiver; On-Chip Power-Combining for High-Power Schottky Diode-Based Frequency Multipliers; FPGA Vision Data Architecture; Memory Circuit Fault Simulator; Ultra-Compact Transputer-Based Controller for High-Level, Multi-Axis Coordination; Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot Excavator; Magnetically Actuated Seal; Hybrid Electrostatic/Flextensional Mirror for Lightweight, Large-Aperture, and Cryogenic Space Telescopes; System for Contributing and Discovering Derived Mission and Science Data; Remote Viewer for Maritime Robotics Software; Stackfile Database; Reachability Maps for In Situ Operations; JPL Space Telecommunications Radio System Operating Environment; RFI-SIM: RFI Simulation Package; ION Configuration Editor; Dtest Testing Software; IMPaCT - Integration of Missions, Programs, and Core Technologies; Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) Toolkit; Wind-Driven Wireless Networked System of Mobile Sensors for Mars Exploration; In Situ Solid Particle Generator; Analysis of the Effects of Streamwise Lift Distribution on Sonic Boom Signature; Rad-Tolerant, Thermally Stable, High-Speed Fiber-Optic Network for Harsh Environments; Towed Subsurface Optical Communications Buoy; High-Collection-Efficiency Fluorescence Detection Cell; Ultra-Compact, Superconducting Spectrometer-on-a-Chip at Submillimeter Wavelengths; UV Resonant Raman Spectrometer with Multi-Line Laser Excitation; Medicine Delivery Device with Integrated Sterilization and Detection; Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Model Experiments - ISOGAME; Airborne Tomographic Swath Ice Sounding Processing System; flexplan: Mission Planning System for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter; Estimating Torque Imparted on Spacecraft Using Telemetry; PowderSim: Lagrangian Discrete and Mesh-Free Continuum Simulation Code for Cohesive Soils; Multiple-Frame Detection of Subpixel Targets in Thermal Image Sequences; Metric Learning to Enhance Hyperspectral Image Segmentation; Basic Operational Robotics Instructional System; Sheet Membrane Spacesuit Water Membrane Evaporator; Advanced Materials and Manufacturing for Low-Cost, High-Performance Liquid Rocket Combustion Chambers; Motor Qualification for Long-Duration Mars Missions.

Source record↗

Passive isolator design for jitter reduction in the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph

Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) is a mission to locate and study extrasolar Earth-like planets. The TPF Coronagraph (TPF-C), planned for launch in the latter half of the next decade, will use a coronagraphic mask and other optics to suppress the light of the nearby star in order to collect visible light from such planets. The required contrast ratio of 5e-11 can only be achieved by maintaining pointing accuracy to 4 milli-arcseconds, and limiting optics jitter to below 5 nm. Numerous mechanical disturbances act to induce jitter. This paper concentrates on passive isolation techniques to minimize the optical degradation introduced by disturbance sources. A passive isolation system, using compliant mounts placed at an energy bottleneck to reduce energy transmission above a certain frequency, is a low risk, flight proven design approach. However, the attenuation is limited, compared to an active system, so the feasibility of the design must be demonstrated by analysis. The paper presents the jitter analysis for the baseline TPF design, using a passive isolation system. The analysis model representing the dynamics of the spacecraft and telescope is described, with emphasis on passive isolator modeling. Pointing and deformation metrics, consistent with the TPF-C error budget, are derived. Jitter prediction methodology and results are presented. Then an analysis of the critical design parameters that drive the TPF-C jitter response is performed.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Development of a coupled experimental–computational approach for engineering optimization of spout-fluidized bed particle coating systems

The design of spout-fluidized bed (SFB) coating systems for nuclear particle fuels typically relies on trial-and-error processes, comprising iterative and time-consuming coating deposition experiments and post-deposition characterization. At an engineering scale, this approach to guided SFB system design is inefficient, highlighting the need for streamlined experimental methodologies which can correlate fluidization conditions to downstream coating outcomes. In this study, we combine time-resolved particle image velocimetry (PIV) with CFD–DEM simulations to benchmark hydrodynamic behavior in a 3D spout-fluidized bed. By exploiting easily accessible optical measurements of particle motion at the bed wall and within the spouting region, we obtain quantitative velocity fields that can be directly compared with model predictions of the occluded bed region, without resorting to complex imaging and characterization techniques such as X-ray or magnetic resonance tomography. Experimental benchmarking reveals strong agreement between CFD–DEM and PIV in the spout and annulus regions, while discrepancies near the wall highlight areas for future model development. Here, the proposed integrated experimental–numerical framework will enable a direct connection between measured variables and numerically predicted fluidization performance of dense, surrogate nuclear particle fuel feedstock such that experimental SFB component design can be rapidly evaluated, informing design decisions for nozzle geometry and operating conditions. Future work will extend this framework by correlating quantified fluidization metrics across nozzle geometries and operating conditions with the resulting coating morphology, microstructure, and uniformity. Establishing these correlations will enable predictive links between hydrodynamic performance and coating quality, providing a rational, scalable basis for optimizing SFB design prior to coating deposition.

CFD/DEM↗

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗

Assessment of the Performance of the Atmospheric Correction Algorithm MAJA for Sentinel-2 Surface Reflectance Estimates

The correction of atmospheric effects on optical remote sensing products is an essential component of Analysis Ready Data (ARD) production lines. The MAJA processor aims at providing accurate time series of surface reflectances over land for satellite missions, such as Sentinel-2, Venμs, and Landsat 8. The Centre d’Études Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO) and the Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES) share a common effort to maintain, validate, and improve the MAJA processor, using state-of-the-art ground measurement sites, and participating in processor inter-comparisons, such as the Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX). While contributing to the second ACIX-II Land validation exercise, it was found that the candidate MAJA dataset could not adequately be compared to the main reference dataset. MAJA reflectances were corrected for adjacency and topography effects while the reference dataset was not, excluding MAJA from a part of the performance metrics of the exercise. The first part of the following study aims at providing complementary performance assessment to ACIX-II by reprocessing MAJA surface reflectances without adjacency nor topographic correction, allowing for an un-biased full resolution comparison with the reference Sentinel-2 dataset. The second part of the study consists of validating MAJA against surface reflectance measurements time series of up to five years acquired at three automated stations. Both approaches provide extensive insights on the quality of MAJA Sentinel-2 Level 2 products.

ROSAS↗