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At least 145 records · Page 8

A Semi-Empirical Model for Forecasting Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary Orbit

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (>2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/Interplanetary Magnetic Field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is about 0.9. The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual electron fluxes is stable and incredibly high.

Lyatsky, Wladislaw↗

Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

Richmond, R. C.↗

Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary Orbit: Modeling Results

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.

Khazanov, George V.↗

Prediction Model for Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary Orbit

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.

Khazanov, George V.↗

Observing System Variations Effect on Reanalyses

Reanalyses integrate multitudes of satellite and conventional observations data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. The result is that many disparate observation platforms, discontinuous in space and time, lead to complete and consistent representations the state of the weather. The component also provides physical fields rarely or never observed. However, the numerical model bias is continuously being corrected by the observational analysis, and this bias changes as variations in the observations occur. NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) sensitivity to variations in the observing systems are explored. Specifically, we will evaluate the water budget and transport processes as they relate to the advent of SSM/I and AMSU-A radiance assimilation, and an additional case of radiosonde station that exhibits a dramatic shift in mean water states. The MERRA input observation data, now available online, is used to explore these variations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗

Review of recent activities with MOOSE, an open-source finite element & finite volume multi-fidelity simulation framework

Modeling and simulation are an increasing part of engineering. This is undoubtedly driven by the high costs of constructing experimental facilities, but also enabled by the exponential increase in computing powers over the last decades, which allows computational models to be closer than ever to reality. One of the main drivers for the development of MOOSE is supporting advanced nuclear reactor simulations. A challenging aspect of modeling advanced nuclear reactors is the plurality of physics involved, including neutronics, thermal hydraulics and fuel performance. These physics are all coupled to some extent and are generally solved in a sequential but iterative fashion. The United States (U.S.) national laboratories have been developing MOOSE, an open source multiphysics framework since its inception at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2008. This framework enables seamless coupling of multiphysics simulations and facilitates the implementation of new physics and material governing laws. It is continuously expanded with novel numerical methods and new pre-implemented physics module. Numerous applications, developed within the Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories, academia, and industry, including outside of nuclear engineering, have been developed to study specialized physics problems. International collaborations are welcome on this open-source modeling and simulation project.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Numerical methods and hypoexponential approximations for gamma distributed delay differential equations

Abstract Gamma distributed delay differential equations (DDEs) arise naturally in many modelling applications. However, appropriate numerical methods for generic gamma distributed DDEs have not previously been implemented. Modellers have therefore resorted to approximating the gamma distribution with an Erlang distribution and using the linear chain technique to derive an equivalent system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In this work, we address the lack of appropriate numerical tools for gamma distributed DDEs in two ways. First, we develop a functional continuous Runge–Kutta (FCRK) method to numerically integrate the gamma distributed DDE without resorting to Erlang approximation. We prove the fourth-order convergence of the FCRK method and perform numerical tests to demonstrate the accuracy of the new numerical method. Nevertheless, FCRK methods for infinite delay DDEs are not widely available in existing scientific software packages. As an alternative approach to solving gamma distributed DDEs, we also derive a hypoexponential approximation of the gamma distributed DDE. This hypoexponential approach is a more accurate approximation of the true gamma distributed DDE than the common Erlang approximation but, like the Erlang approximation, can be formulated as a system of ODEs and solved numerically using standard ODE software. Using our FCRK method to provide reference solutions, we show that the common Erlang approximation may produce solutions that are qualitatively different from the underlying gamma distributed DDE. However, the proposed hypoexponential approximations do not have this limitation. Finally, we apply our hypoexponential approximations to perform statistical inference on synthetic epidemiological data to illustrate the utility of the hypoexponential approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of specificity and information for fuzzy domains

This paper demonstrates how an integrated theory can be built on the foundation of possibility theory. Information and uncertainty were considered in 'fuzzy' literature since 1982. Our departing point is the model proposed by Klir for the discrete case. It was elaborated axiomatically by Ramer, who also introduced the continuous model. Specificity as a numerical function was considered mostly within Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. An explicity definition was given first by Yager, who has also introduced it in the context of possibility theory. Axiomatic approach and the continuous model have been developed very recently by Ramer and Yager. They also establish a close analytical correspondence between specificity and information. In literature to date, specificity and uncertainty are defined only for the discrete finite domains, with a sole exception. Our presentation removes these limitations. We define specificity measures for arbitrary measurable domains.

Ramer, Arthur↗

A time dependent difference theory for sound propagation in ducts with flow

A time dependent numerical solution of the linearized continuity and momentum equation was developed for sound propagation in a two dimensional straight hard or soft wall duct with a sheared mean flow. The time dependent governing acoustic difference equations and boundary conditions were developed along with a numerical determination of the maximum stable time increments. A harmonic noise source radiating into a quiescent duct was analyzed. This explicit iteration method then calculated stepwise in real time to obtain the transient as well as the steady state solution of the acoustic field. Example calculations were presented for sound propagation in hard and soft wall ducts, with no flow and plug flow. Although the problem with sheared flow was formulated and programmed, sample calculations were not examined. The time dependent finite difference analysis was found to be superior to the steady state finite difference and finite element techniques because of shorter solution times and the elimination of large matrix storage requirements.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

A time dependent difference theory for sound propagation in ducts with flow

A time dependent numerical solution of the linearized continuity and momentum equation is developed for sound propagation in a two-dimensional straight hard or soft wall duct with a sheared mean flow. The time dependent governing acoustic-difference equations and boundary conditions are developed along with a numerical determination of the maximum stable time increments. The analysis begins with a harmonic noise source radiating into a quiescent duct. This explicit iteration method then calculates stepwise in real time to obtain the transient as well as the 'steady' state solution of the acoustic field. Example calculations are presented for sound propagation in hard and soft wall ducts, with no flow and with plug flow. Although the problem with sheared flow has been formulated and programmed, sample calculations have not yet been examined. So far, the time dependent finite difference analysis has been found to be superior to the steady state finite difference and finite element techniques because of shorter solution times and the elimination of large matrix storage requirements.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

Rotordynamic Instability Problems in High-Performance Turbomachinery, 1993

The first rotordynamics workshop proceedings (NASA CP-2133, 1980) emphasized a feeling of uncertainty in predicting the stability of characteristics of high-performance turbomachinery. In the second workshop proceedings (NASA CP-2250, 1982) these uncertainties were reduced through programs established to systematically resolve problems, with emphasis on experimental validation of the forces that influence rotordynamics. In the third proceedings (NASA CP-2338, 1984) many programs for predicting or measuring forces and force coefficients in high-performance turbomachinery produced results. Data became available for designing new machines with enhanced stability characteristics or for upgrading existing machines. In the fourth proceedings (NASA CP-2443, 1986) there emerged trends toward a more unified view of rotordynamic instability problems and several encouraging new analytical developments. The fifth workshop (NASA CP-3026, 1988) supported the continuing trend toward a unified view with several new developments in the design and manufacture of new turbomachineries with enhanced stability characteristics along with new data and associated numerical/theoretical results. The sixth workshop report (NASA CP-3 I 22, 1990) field experience and experimental results, and expanded the use of computational and control techniques with integration of damper, bearing, and eccentric seal operation results. The present workshop continues to report field experiences, numerical, theoretical, and experimental results and control methods for seals, bearings, and dampers with some attention given to variable thermo physical properties and turbulence measurements, and introduction of two-phase flow results. The intent of the workshop and this proceedings is to provide a continuing impetus for an understanding and resolution of these problems.

Instabilities↗

Numerical model of a two-dimensional, non-plane transient magnetohydrodynamic flow

The equations describing two-dimensional three-component magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) transient flows are formulated for a system of spherical coordinates. With the numerical code based on Implicit Continuous Fluid Eulerian (ICE) scheme, MHD flows resulting from a sudden energy release in a stratified medium are examined. Because of the inclusion of out-of-plane components of velocity and magnetic fields, MHD transverse waves are observed in addition to fast, slow and entropy waves. Numerical results for compressible MHD shocks are found in satisfactory agreement with the theoretical predictions.

Han, S. M.↗

Quantitative Diagnosis of Continuous-Valued, Stead-State Systems

Quantitative diagnosis involves numerically estimating the values of unobservable parameters that best explain the observed parameter values. We consider quantitative diagnosis for continuous, lumped- parameter, steady-state physical systems because such models are easy to construct and the diagnosis problem is considerably simpler than that for corresponding dynamic models. To further tackle the difficulties of numerically inverting a simulation model to compute a diagnosis, we propose to decompose a physical system model in terms of feedback loops. This decomposition reduces the dimension of the problem and consequently decreases the diagnosis search space. We illustrate this approach on a model of thermal control system studied in earlier research.

Quantitative Diagnosis↗

Numerical simulation of gas production from natural gas hydrate deposits with multi-branch wells: Influence of reservoir properties

Vast amounts of natural gas hydrate are buried in subseafloor sediments without impermeable boundaries, which is recognized as an essential energy source for the future. Previously, the multi-branch well was proposed to enhance the recovery efficiency of natural gas hydrate, and the gas production rate has been dramatically improved comparing with the vertical well. However, the multi-branch well shows a terrible performance in gas production duration. Here, as a continuation of the previous study, numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the influence of hydrate reservoir properties on the gas production potential. Results indicate that it is hard to extract hydrate commercially for hydrate accumulations without impermeable boundaries. A high initial hydrate saturation leads to a long gas production duration but a low gas production rate. An increase in the intrinsic permeability of isotropic reservoirs would shorten the gas production duration and result in a low gas recovery ratio. Permeability anisotropy shows a noticeable effect on enhancing the gas recovery ratio and the gas production duration due to the improved pressure propagation pattern. Therefore, in the upcoming field tests, reservoir reconstructions that enhance permeability anisotropy are strongly suggested to obtain better outcomes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A Tower-based Prototype VHF/UHF Radar for Subsurface Sensing: System Description and Data Inversion Results

Knowledge of subsurface characteristics such as permittivity variations and layering structure could provide a breakthrough in many terrestrial and planetary science disciplines. For Earth science, knowledge of subsurface and subcanopy soil moisture layers can enable the estimation of vertical flow in the soil column linking surface hydrologic processes with that in the subsurface. For planetary science, determining the existence of subsurface water and ice is regarded as one of the most critical information needs for the study of the origins of the solar system. The subsurface in general can be described as several near-parallel layers with rough interfaces. Each homogenous rough layer can be defined by its average thickness, permittivity, and rms interface roughness assuming a known surface spectral distribution. As the number and depth of layers increase, the number of measurements needed to invert for the layer unknowns also increases, and deeper penetration capability would be required. To nondestructively calculate the characteristics of the rough layers, a multifrequency polarimetric radar backscattering approach can be used. One such system is that we have developed for data prototyping of the Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface (MOSS) mission concept. A tower-mounted radar makes backscattering measurements at VHF, UHF, and L-band frequencies. The radar is a pulsed CW system, which uses the same wideband antenna to transmit and receive the signals at all three frequencies. To focus the beam at various incidence angles within the beamwidth of the antenna, the tower is moved vertically and measurements made at each position. The signals are coherently summed to achieve focusing and image formation in the subsurface. This requires an estimate of wave velocity profiles. To solve the inverse scattering problem for subsurface velocity profile simultaneously with radar focusing, we use an iterative technique based on a forward numerical solution of the layered rough surface problem. The layers are each defined in terms of a small number of unknown distributions as given above. An a priori estimate of the solution is first assumed, based on which the forward problem is solved for the backscattered measurements. This is compared with the measured data and using iterative techniques an update to the solution for the unknowns is calculated. The process continues until convergence is achieved. Numerical results will be shown using actual radar data acquired with the MOSS tower radar system in Arizona in Fall 2003, and compared with in-situ measurements.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

Landau discriminants

Scattering amplitudes in quantum field theories have intricate analytic properties as functions of the energies and momenta of the scattered particles. In perturbation theory, their singularities are governed by a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, known as Landau equations, for each individual Feynman diagram. The singularity locus of the associated Feynman integral is made precise with the notion of the Landau discriminant, which characterizes when the Landau equations admit a solution. In order to compute this discriminant, we present approaches from classical elimination theory, as well as a numerical algorithm based on homotopy continuation. These methods allow us to compute Landau discriminants of various Feynman diagrams up to 3 loops, which were previously out of reach. For instance, the Landau discriminant of the envelope diagram is a reducible surface of degree 45 in the three-dimensional space of kinematic invariants. We investigate geometric properties of the Landau discriminant, such as irreducibility, dimension and degree. In particular, we find simple examples in which the Landau discriminant has codimension greater than one. Furthermore, we describe a numerical procedure for determining which parts of the Landau discriminant lie in the physical regions. In order to study degenerate limits of Landau equations and bounds on the degree of the Landau discriminant, we introduce Landau polytopes and study their facet structure. Finally, we provide an efficient numerical algorithm for the computation of the number of master integrals based on the connection to algebraic statistics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗