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At least 145 records · Page 8

Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. Here, we reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multifaceted drivers for onshore wind energy repowering and their implications for energy transition

Wind energy is anticipated to become a backbone of the future energy system. Ageing wind turbine fleets, increasing land-use constraints and rising relevance of societal factors make the deployment of land-based (onshore) wind energy ever more complicated. Consequently, repowering is expected to become a rapidly growing point of focus for the wind industry. Here we propose a more holistic and socially informed project-level approach to analyse repowering activity that enables a more robust understanding of the process and potentials. We demonstrate that for wind pioneer in Denmark, only 67% of the capacity removed in repowering projects was related to the physical space needed for a new turbine. Other factors that drive repowering include regulation (for example, noise-related, 8–17%), development principles (for example, aesthetics, 7–20%) and political bargaining (4–13%). The recognition of repowering as a negotiated process between host communities and wind developers will probably be critical to unlock the full potential of wind energy in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Passive high explosive neutron inspection (PHENIX): a new method to confirm the presence or absence of high explosives for nuclear treaty verification

Advanced instruments and methods need to be developed now to create a technical basis to support the negotiation of future nuclear arms control treaties. One new capability that is anticipated is the ability to confirm either the declared presence or declared absence of high explosive (HE) material in the presence of special nuclear material (SNM). Towards this goal, Passive HE Neutron Inspection (PHENIX) has been developed and demonstrated as a method for confirming the presence or absence of HE in the presence of plutonium. The method exploits the inherent presence of neutrons associated with the decay of plutonium as an internal probe source for performing prompt gamma-ray neutron activation analysis (PGNAA), searching for the presence of HE as revealed by the emission of characteristic gamma rays following neutron absorption in hydrogen and nitrogen which are building blocks of present-day, military-grade HE. Tests using stoichiometrically-correct hemishells of mock HE with plutonium show that a system can be expected to positively confirm the presence or absence of these signatures, supporting determination of HE presence or absence with Pu, in a few hours. To protect other potentially sensitive gamma-ray signatures from a treaty accountable item, an analog information barrier has been conceptualized and tested which physically prevents the collection of gamma-ray spectral data outside of user selected energy windows strategically chosen to view only narrow spectral regions corresponding to the hydrogen (2223.2 keV) and nitrogen (9807.2 keV, 10,318.2 keV, and 10,829.2 keV) PGNAA signatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evolution of the CMS Global Submission Infrastructure for the HL-LHC Era

Efforts in distributed computing of the CMS experiment at the LHC at CERN are now focusing on the functionality required to fulfill the projected needs for the HL-LHC era. Cloud and HPC resources are expected to be dominant relative to resources provided by traditional Grid sites, being also much more diverse and heterogeneous. Handling their special capabilities or limitations and maintaining global flexibility and efficiency, while also operating at scales much higher than the current capacity, are the major challenges being addressed by the CMS Submission Infrastructure team. These proceedings discuss the risks to the stability and scalability of the CMS HTCondor infrastructure extrapolated to such a scenario, thought to be derived mostly from its growing complexity, with multiple Negotiators and schedulers flocking work to multiple federated pools. New mechanisms for enhanced customization and control over resource allocation and usage, mandatory in this future scenario, are also described.

Yzquierdo, Antonio Pérez-Calero↗

Competition between deformability and charge transport in semiconducting polymers for flexible and stretchable electronics

The primary goal of the field concerned with organic semiconductors is to produce devices with performance approaching that of silicon electronics, but with the deformability—flexibility and stretchability—of conventional plastics. However, an inherent competition between deformability and charge transport has long been observed in these materials, and achieving the extreme (or even moderate) deformability implied by the word “plastic” concurrently with high charge transport may be elusive. This competition arises because the properties needed for high carrier mobilities—e.g., rigid chains in π-conjugated polymers and high degrees of crystallinity in the solid state—are antithetical to deformability. On the device scale, this competition can lead to low-performance yet mechanically robust devices, or high-performance devices that fail catastrophically (e.g., cracking, cohesive failure, and delamination) under strain. There are, however, some observations that contradict the notion of the mutual exclusivity of electronic and mechanical performances. These observations suggest that this problem may not be a fundamental trade-off, but rather an inconvenience that may be negotiated by a logical selection of materials and processing conditions. For example, the selection of the poly(3-alkylthiophene) with a critical side-chain length—poly(3-heptylthiophene) (n = 7)—marries the high deformability of poly(3-octylthiophene) (n = 8) with the high electronic performance (as manifested in photovoltaic efficiency) of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (n = 6). This review explores the relationship between deformability and charge transport in organic semiconductors. The principal conclusions are that reducing the competition between these two parameters is in fact possible, with two demonstrated routes being: (1) incorporation of softer, insulating material into a stiffer, semiconducting material and (2) increasing disorder in a highly ordered film, but not enough to disrupt charge transport pathways. The aim of this review is to provide a bridge between the fields interested in electronic properties and mechanical properties of conjugated polymers. We provide a high-level introduction to some of the important electronic and mechanical properties and measurement techniques for organic electronic devices, demonstrate an apparent competition between good electronic performance and mechanical deformability, and highlight potential strategies for overcoming this undesirable competition. A marriage of these two fields would allow for rational design of materials for applications requiring large-area, low-cost, printable devices that are ultra-flexible or stretchable, such as organic photovoltaic devices and wearable, conformable, or implantable sensors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, where negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approaches can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

“Defense by other means”: future evolution(s) of cooperative threat reduction

This article discusses likely future contexts of, and options for, global threat-reduction activities to support nonproliferation goals over the next five to ten years. Threat-reduction activities span a continuum from unilateral actions that the United States might take with little cooperation and transparency at one end to cooperative actions associated with negotiated treaties and agreements at the other. This study focuses on cooperative approaches embodied in the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, which has been the most visible program reducing the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction for over two decades. Here, we argue that CTR’s evolution can be described in terms of the relationship between the desired US influence on outcomes, the ability to generate a common threat definition, and appetite for collaboration on threat reduction. To that end, this article provides an introduction and overview of CTR initiatives over its twenty-seven-year history and a review of relevant legislation and trends. After introducing and describing the CTR Possible Futures Framework, this article offers five possible options for—and discusses the implications of—CTR’s future evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

An industrial policy framework for transforming energy and emissions intensive industries towards zero emissions

The target of zero emissions sets a new standard for industry and industrial policy. Industrial policy in the twenty-first century must aim to achieve zero emissions in the energy and emissions intensive industries. Sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals have so far largely been sheltered from the effects of climate policy. A major shift is needed, from contemporary industrial policy that mainly protects industry to policy strategies that transform the industry. For this purpose, we draw on a wide range of literatures including engineering, economics, policy, governance, and innovation studies to propose a comprehensive industrial policy framework. The policy framework relies on six pillars: directionality, knowledge creation and innovation, creating and reshaping markets, building capacity for governance and change, international coherence, and sensitivity to socio-economic implications of phase-outs. Complementary solutions relying on technological, organizational, and behavioural change must be pursued in parallel and throughout whole value chains. Current policy is limited to supporting mainly some options, e.g. energy efficiency and recycling, with some regions also adopting carbon pricing, although most often exempting the energy and emissions intensive industries. An extended range of options, such as demand management, materials efficiency, and electrification, must also be pursued to reach zero emissions. New policy research and evaluation approaches are needed to support and assess progress as these industries have hitherto largely been overlooked in domestic climate policy as well as international negotiations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fit for Purpose: An Evolutionary Strategy for the Implementation and Verification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons requires States Parties to designate a “competent international authority or authorities” for negotiating and verifying the irreversible elimination of nuclear-weapons programs. Ensuring that such an authority or authorities is able to be fit for purpose when required to meet these tasks will be crucial for both the future implementation and legitimacy of the Treaty. To address this challenge, this article proposes the early creation of a two-part organizational structure, comprising an implementation support unit and a dedicated scientific and technical advisory body, to begin the process of institutionalizing the treaty, and build the technical basis for meeting its verification goals should a nuclear-weapon-possessing state decide to join. The article then discusses how such two-part structure could be scaled-up as a standing international organization tasked with the coordination of an ad hoc inspectorate, which would also cooperate and complement the work of existing nuclear verification organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. This evolutionary and adaptive strategy to institution building could empower the new Treaty by supporting the emergence of a new regime complex for nuclear disarmament, while taking into account the initially limited financial and technical resources of its member states.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The SparkPix-S ASIC for the sparsified readout of 1 MHz frame-rate X-ray cameras at LCLS-II: pixel design and simulation results

Exploiting the “sparse” nature of the information in XPCS (X-ray Photon Correlation Spectroscopy) and XSVS (Speckle Visibility Spectroscopy) experiments, we present the SparkPix-S, a 3-sides buttable Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) based on a sparsified readout strategy for large-format hybrid detectors. The SparkPix-S architecture, based on the successful ePix family, will be composed as follows: a front-end 2-D matrix of 384×352 square pixels with 50 µm pitch is arranged to match the dimensions of a PIN Si-sensor matrix; charge readout, signal shaping and amplitude discrimination is performed at pixel-level, by means of a low-power (<18 µW) analog processor, which, in case of an event, negotiates access to an analog bus placed every other column; on the chip periphery (balcony), the information on each bus is digitized by an array of successive approximation analog-to-digital converters (SAR-ADCs) running at 10 Msps; on the digital back-end the global logic will generate the output data stream using low-voltage differential signalling (LVDS). A first prototype of the SparkPix-S, with a reduced matrix size of 96×96 pixels, is currently under production on a 130 nm CMOS technology. Simulated performance results show an equivalent noise charge <60 el. r.m.s. at 1 MHz repetition rate, with a maximum input energy of 60 keV and capability to discriminate charge signals with equivalent energy as low as 900 eV.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Book Review: Monitoring compliance with the comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Contributions by the German national data centre edited by Christoph Pilger, Lars Ceranna and Christian Bönnemann

For decades, the nuclear weapons capability of different countries was tracked in part via the interpretation of signals from more than 2000 nuclear test explosions that were conducted in programs of weapons development. The first such explosion took place in July 1945 (in New Mexico, USA, prior to the use of nuclear weapons in World War 2 against Japan). The last nuclear test, prior to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) becoming open for signature in September 1996, was in July 1996 (in China). This treaty, which took nearly forty years to negotiate, has been signed by 184 states as of December 2018, but a few key additional signatures and ratifications are still needed before nuclear tests are banned under international law. The evidence that a nuclear test explosion has occurred can come from electromagnetic, seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasonic waves; and from unusual radionuclides— which can be present in particulate matter and/or as noble gases. Of course there is a vast infrastructure associated with military programs of nuclear weapons development in a limited number of countries. Less well-known, is the existence of a large infrastructure involving national and international efforts to monitor for the possible occurrence of nuclear test explosions, and thus to support CTBT verification. This book does a very good job of explaining much of that work, as it is conducted in practice by a western nation with sophisticated facilities.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The avoidance of unwanted catch and cooperation: the case of the British Columbia groundfish trawl fishery

Abstract This paper focuses on a particularly successful avoidance of unwanted catch of protected, endangered, and threatened (PET) species in the form of ecologically important sponge and coral, to be found off Canada's Pacific coast. The fishery causing the unwanted catch—the British Columbia groundfish trawl fishery. A campaign to protect the sponge/coral led by environmental NGOs (ENGOs) resulted in the industry's access to the key California market being threatened. For reasons explained, the national resource manager's ability to take effective direct action had become severely compromised. The groundfish trawl fishing industry responded to the economic threat with a bottom up approach to the unwanted catch problem, by negotiating a habitat agreement with a consortium of ENGOs, with the blessing and full support of the national resource manager. The agreement, now in its tenth year of operation, has proved to be a remarkable success in avoidance of unwanted catch. The paper argues that the success rests fundamentally upon the fact that the fishers have been and are playing a stand alone stable cooperative game, which has led them in turn to play stable cooperative games with both the national resource manager and the ENGO consortium. The paper analyses the factors leading to the stand alone stable cooperative fisher game, doing so by necessity through the lens of game theory.

Grønbæk, L.↗

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO↗

Hitting the sweet spot: exploiting HIV-1 glycan shield for induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies

The surface of the HIV-1 Env glycoprotein, the target of neutralizing antibodies, is extensively covered by N-linked glycans that create a glycan shield. Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs), the primary targets of HIV-1 vaccine design, have to negotiate this glycan shield. Here, we review the barriers and opportunities that the HIV-1 glycan shield presents for vaccine induction of bNAbs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Distributed Flexibility Characterization and Resource Allocation Strategies for Multi-zone Commercial Buildings in the Smart Grid

The HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning) system of commercial buildings is a complex system with a large number of dynamically interacting components. In particular, the thermal dynamics of each zone are coupled with those of the neighboring zones. In this paper, we study a multi-agent based approach to model and control commercial building HVAC system for providing grid services. In the multi-agent system (MAS), individual zones are modeled as agents that can communicate, interact, and negotiate with one another to achieve a common objective. We first propose a distributed characterization method on the aggregated airflow (and thus fan power) flexibility that the HVAC system can provide to the ancillary service market. Then, we propose a Nash-bargaining based airflow allocation strategy to track a dispatch signal (that is within the offered flexibility limit) while respecting the preference and flexibility of individual zones. Moreover, we devise a distributed algorithm to obtain the Nash bargaining solution via dual decomposition and average consensus. Numerical simulations illustrate that the proposed distributed protocols are much more scalable than the centralized approaches especially when the system becomes larger and more complex.

Hao, He↗

Accelerating Multigrid-based Hierarchical Scientific Data Refactoring on GPUs

Rapid growth in scientific data and a widening gap between computational speed and I/O bandwidth make it increasingly infeasible to store and share all data produced by scientific simulations. Instead, we need methods for reducing data volumes: ideally, methods that can scale data volumes adaptively so as to enable negotiation of performance and fidelity tradeoffs in different situations. Multigrid-based hierarchical data representations hold promise as a solution to this problem, allowing for flexible conversion between different fidelities so that, for example, data can be created at high fidelity and then transferred or stored at lower fidelity via logically simple and mathematically sound operations. However, the effective use of such representations has been hindered until now by the relatively high costs of creating, accessing, reducing, and otherwise operating on such representations. We describe here highly optimized data refactoring kernels for GPU accelerators that enable efficient creation and manipulation of data in multigrid-based hierarchical forms. We demonstrate that our optimized design can achieve up to 250 TB/s aggregated data refactoring throughput—83% of theoretical peak—on 1024 nodes of the Summit supercomputer. We showcase our optimized design by applying it to a large-scale scientific visualization workflow and the MGARD lossy compression software.

Data refactoring↗

Real-Time MPC for Residential Building Water Heater Systems to Support the Electric Grid

The world of IoT (internet of things) is spawning new control options and decision making that has not been available before. This is providing a wealth of opportunities for transactive type controls and systems that can negotiate for a common goal. This paper discusses a transactive residential neighborhood with optimization at the home level utilizing a system of agents. The real-time optimization utilizes information and modeling to optimize heat pump water heater operation in occupied homes. Data is presented showing the performance of the optimization and conclusions are drawn on next steps for development.

Starke, Michael↗

Purchasing Power: Rivalry, Dissent, and Computing Strategy in Supercomputer Selection at Los Alamos

In the mid-1960s, the Laboratory at Los Alamos, a center of scientific computing since the Manhattan Project, embarked on a search for a new supercomputer intended to fulfill the growing need for computing power in nuclear weapons development. Although depicted at Los Alamos in later years as a smooth transition between vendors, the selection process was a contentious negotiation among computing experts and users over their differing visions of computing and its place at Los Alamos. Here, this paper argues that changing technical and political demands on weapons design, and Los Alamos' place in the rivalry between IBM and Control Data Corporation, further complicated the selection process, and challenged the traditional control and direction Los Alamos' computing strategy. The result was the formation of a new computing division, and a reframing of the debate over the long-standing management and purpose of computing at Los Alamos.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗