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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. VIII. Disk Formation and Evolution of Simulated Milky Way Mass Galaxy Progenitors at 1 < z < 5

We investigate how differences in the stellar feedback produce disks with different morphologies in Milky Way–like progenitors over 1 ≤ z ≤ 5, using eight state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamics simulation codes in the AGORA project. In three of the participating codes, a distinct, rotation-dominated inner core emerges with a formation timescale of ≲300 Myr, largely driven by a major merger event, while two other codes exhibit similar signs of wet compaction—gaseous shrinkage into a compact starburst phase—at earlier epochs. The remaining three codes show only weak evidence of wet compaction. Consequently, we divide the simulated galaxies into two groups: those with strong compaction signatures and those with weaker ones. Galaxies in these two groups differ in size, stellar age gradients, and disk-to-total mass ratios. Specifically, codes with strong wet compaction build their outer disks in an inside-out fashion, leading to negative age gradients, whereas codes with weaker compaction feature flat or positive age gradients caused primarily by outward stellar migration. Although the stellar half-mass radii of these two groups diverge at z ∼ 3, the inclusion of dust extinction brings their sizes and shapes in mock observations closer to each other and to observed galaxies. We attribute the observed morphological differences primarily to variations in the stellar feedback implementations—such as delayed cooling timescales, and feedback strengths—that regulate both the onset and duration of compaction. Overall, our results suggest that disk assembly at high redshifts is highly sensitive to the details of the stellar feedback prescriptions in simulations.

Jung, Minyong [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republ↗
DOE OSTI2022

INITIAL EXPLORATION OF A NOVEL TRANSIENT ARREST SYSTEM INVOLVING FUEL HEATING

A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of supercritical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compare to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 \$ to 1.3 \$, it was found that the an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5\% to 5\%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial exploration of a novel transient arrest system involving fuel heating

A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of super- critical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compared to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 to 1.3 dollar, it was found that an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5% to 5%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

INITIAL EXPLORATION OF A NOVEL TRANSIENT ARREST SYSTEM INVOLVING FUEL HEATING (Presentation)

A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of supercritical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compare to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 \$ to 1.3 \$, it was found that the an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5% to 5%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metabolic Synergy between Human Symbionts Bacteroides and Methanobrevibacter

Trophic interactions between microbes are postulated to determine whether a host microbiome is healthy or causes predisposition to disease. Two abundant taxa, the Gram-negative heterotrophic bacterium Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron and the methanogenic archaeon Methanobrevibacter smithii, are proposed to have a synergistic metabolic relationship. Both organisms play vital roles in human gut health; B. thetaiotaomicron assists the host by fermenting dietary polysaccharides, whereas M. smithii consumes end-stage fermentation products and is hypothesized to relieve feedback inhibition of upstream microbes such as B. thetaiotaomicron. To study their metabolic interactions, we defined and optimized a coculture system and used software testing techniques to analyze growth under a range of conditions representing the nutrient environment of the host. Here we verify that B. thetaiotaomicron fermentation products are sufficient for M. smithii growth and that accumulation of fermentation products alters secretion of metabolites by B. thetaiotaomicron to benefit M. smithii. Studies suggest that B. thetaiotaomicron metabolic efficiency is greater in the absence of fermentation products or in the presence of M. smithii. Under certain conditions, B. thetaiotaomicron and M. smithii form interspecies granules consistent with behavior observed for syntrophic partnerships between microbes in soil or sediment enrichments and anaerobic digesters. Furthermore, when vitamin B 12 , hematin, and hydrogen gas are abundant, coculture growth is greater than the sum of growth observed for monocultures, suggesting that both organisms benefit from a synergistic mutual metabolic relationship.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud water adjustments to aerosol perturbations are buffered by solar heating in non-precipitating marine stratocumuli

Abstract. Marine low-level clouds are key to the Earth's energy budget due to their expansive coverage over global oceans and their high reflectance of incoming solar radiation. Their responses to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations remain the largest source of uncertainty in estimating the anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate. A major challenge is the quantification of the cloud water response to aerosol perturbations. In particular, the presence of feedbacks through microphysical, dynamical, and thermodynamical pathways at various spatial and temporal scales could augment or weaken the response. Central to this problem is the temporal evolution in cloud adjustment, governed by entangled feedback mechanisms. We apply an innovative conditional Monte Carlo subsampling approach to a large ensemble of diurnal large-eddy simulation of non-precipitating marine stratocumulus to study the role of solar heating in governing the evolution in the relationship between droplet number and cloud water. We find a persistent negative trend in this relationship at night, confirming that the role of microphysically enhanced cloud-top entrainment. After sunrise, the evolution in this relationship appears buffered and converges to ∼-0.2 in the late afternoon. This buffering effect is attributed to a strong dependence of cloud-layer shortwave absorption on cloud liquid water path. These diurnal cycle characteristics further demonstrate a tight connection between cloud brightening potential and the relationship between cloud water and droplet number at sunrise, which has implications for the impact of the timing of advertent aerosol perturbations.

Zhang, Jianhao (ORCID:0000000169882935)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Verification of Thermo-Mechanical Bowing in a Limited Free-Bow SFR Concept Using MOOSE

Core bowing due to thermal gradients and irradiation induced swelling and creep introduces significant reactivity feedback effects in liquid metal-cooled fast spectrum reactors. During startup, normal operations, and transient events, differential thermal and flux gradients cause expansion, creep, and swelling, which results in bowing in preferential directions depending on local material properties and load-pad and restraint-ring design. The bowing phenomenon produces negative reactivity during accident conditions provided the restraint system has been properly designed to optimally guide the deformation outwards in the active core region. Under the Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, a Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based multiphysics approach to model core bowing is being developed. The present work expands on previous modeling of simpler International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification problems with these tools by modeling IAEA Verification Problem 4, which involves a symmetric sector of a reactor core with ducted assemblies undergoing differential thermal expansion due to thermal gradients bowing outward with duct-to-duct contact. This model is available on the National Reactor Innovation Center Virtual Test Bed repository. This example was verified against benchmark participant results, which includes bowing deformation evaluation and duct-to-duct interactions at load pads with mechanical contact.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aeroservoelastic Stability of a Floating Wind Turbine

The problem of negative damping undermines the aeroservoelastic stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The negative damping problem is most prevalent around rated wind speed, where the sensitivity of thrust to wind speed is the largest. This paper investigates the implementation of peak shaving, a controller feature that limits the rated thrust by pitching the blades before rated wind speed is reached. Two controller designs are investigated: a de-tuned controller and a nacelle-feedback controller. A time-domain metric is defined, inspired by Lyapunov theory, in order to compute and assess the stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The model of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine mounted on the University of Maine VolturnUS-S floater is simulated in HAWC2 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reference open-source controller. Peak shaving is applied to the two controller designs and stability is assessed. According to the chosen metric, peak shaving does not improve the stability of the system. This is due to the trade-off between loads and error tracking: although the loads and displacements in the fore-aft direction of the turbine are reduced, the rotor-speed tracking is poorer, which increases the shaft torsion fatigue load.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Apex Study: Compensating Transient Beam Loading in the RHIC 28 MHZ

With the EIC on the way, it is important that developments and strategies are in place to deal with the very high beam currents that the machine will feature. Specifically, the EIC will collide beams of up to 2.5 A, three times the beam current in RHIC. This higher beam current will cause significant voltage transients in the cavity fields which can lead to longitudinal instabilities and beam loss. In anticipation of these negative effects, studies were carried out on the RHIC 28 MHz cavities using newly developed firmware and software to diagnose and combat beam loading. Diagnostic tools such as the bunch-by-bunch (BbyB) ADC firmware and digital network analyzer (DNA) were used to characterize the closed loop system and transient on the cavity voltage magnitude and phase. Then, a one-turn delay feedback (OTFB) and adaptive feed-forward (aFFWD) were used to minimize the transient beam loading. The studies were carried out with beam during 2 accelerator physics experiements (APEXs) using one of the 28 MHz accelerating cavities here at RHIC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability enhancement module for grid-following converters: Hardware implementation and validation

Low-frequency oscillations limit power delivery of voltage-source converter interfaced resources, for example, wind and solar, operating in grid-following control mode. Our prior research identified the instability mechanism as the coupling between real power and voltage at point of common coupling. In turn, a stability enhancement control was proposed to weaken the coupling by introducing a simple voltage-based feedback loop. The stability enhancement control has been validated via electromagnetic transient simulation testbeds. The objectives of this paper are (a) to provide a more insightful explanation of the enhancement module by examining the impedance of the grid-following converter and (b) to verify the performance of the stability module using a hardware testbed. The theoretic examination demonstrates that stability enhancement module effectively reduces the negative resistance effect of $Z_{qq}$ and thus boosts stability. The experimental research leads to a hardware testbed of a grid-following converter with the ability of demonstrating low-frequency oscillations. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed stability enhancement control and the readiness of commercial realization of the stability enhancement unit.

42 ENGINEERING↗