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NASA NTRS2022

Using Soil Moisture Information to Better Understand and Predict Wildfire Danger: A Review of Recent Developments and Outstanding Questions

Soil moisture conditions are represented in fire danger rating systems mainly through simple drought indices based on meteorological variables, even though better sources of soil moisture information are increasingly available. This review summarises a growing body of evidence indicating that greater use of in situ, remotely sensed, and modelled soil moisture information in fire danger rating systems could lead to better estimates of dynamic live and dead herbaceous fuel loads, more accurate live and dead fuel moisture predictions, earlier warning of wildfire danger, and better forecasts of wildfire occurrence and size. Potential uses of soil moisture information in existing wildfire danger rating systems include (1) as a supplement or replacement for drought indices, (2) for live and (3) dead fuel moisture modelling, (4) for estimating herbaceous fuel curing, and (5) for estimating fuel loads. We identify key remaining research questions and note the logistical challenge of convincing wildfire professionals of the importance of soil moisture compared with more familiar wildfire danger metrics. While obstacles remain, the path forward is clear. Soil moisture information can and should be used to improve fire danger rating systems and contribute to more effective fire management for the protection of communities and ecosystems worldwide.

fuel properties↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region: Climatology and Recent Changes

Abstract Given the critical role of precipitation on hydroclimate, we quantified the contributions of moisture source regions to precipitation in the Great Lakes Region (GLR) using multiple reanalysis data sets. Results show that the Great Plains (GPs) and the GLR itself are the primary sources of moisture. The moisture sources for the double peaks in the GLR precipitation that occur in June and September are identified, which is caused by a shift in the peak timing of moisture contribution from the GLR and GPs. In particular, moisture from the GPs contributes more to the heavy precipitation, while moisture from the GLR contributes more to the light precipitation. We also found a statistically significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend in the moisture contribution from the mid‐Pacific, caused by an intensified zonal moisture transport from the mid‐Pacific through changes in atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of moisture on microbial decomposition phenotypes and enzyme dynamics

Soil organic matter decomposition is a complex process reflecting microbial composition and environmental conditions. Moisture can modulate the connectivity and interactions of microbes. Due to heterogeneity, a deeper understanding of the influence of soil moisture on the dynamics of organic matter decomposition and resultant phenotypes remains a challenge. Soils from a long-term field experiment exposed to high and low moisture treatments were incubated in the laboratory to investigate organic matter decomposition using chitin as a model substrate. By combining enzymatic assays, biomass measurements, and microbial enrichment via activity-based probes, we determined the microbial functional response to chitin amendments and field moisture treatments at both the community and cell scales. Chitinolytic activities showed significant responses to the amendment of chitin, independent of differences in field moisture treatments. However, for other measurements of carbon metabolism and cellular functions, soils from high moisture field treatments had greater potential enzyme activity than soils from low moisture field treatments. A cell tagging approach was used to enrich and quantify bacterial taxa that are actively producing chitin-degrading enzymes. By integrating organism, community, and soil core measurements we show that (i) a small subset of taxa compose the majority (>50%) of chitinase production despite broad functional redundancy, (ii) the identity of key chitin degraders varies with moisture level, and (iii) extracellular enzymes that are not cell-associated account for most potential chitinase activity measured in field soil.

activity-based probes↗

NASA NTRS1979

Effect of moisture on the fatigue behavior of graphite/epoxy composite laminates

The form of the moisture distribution in the specimen (gradient and flat profile) was considered to establish the influence of accelerated moisture conditioning on fatigue behavior. For the gradient specimens having an average moisture content of 1.4 percent, fatigue life was reduced by a factor of 8 at all stress levels investigated. Corresponding reduction in fatigue life for the flat moisture profile specimens at the same average moisture content was comparatively smaller, being about a factor of 5 from the value in dry specimens. X-ray radiographic analysis of damage accumulation in compression-compression fatigue revealed interlaminar cracking to be the dominant mode of failure responsible for the observed enhanced cyclic degradation of moisture-conditioned specimens. This finding was corroborated by the observed systematic reduction in interlaminar shear strength as a function of moisture content, which, in turn, increased the propensity for delamination under cyclic compressive loads. Residual strength measurements on cycled specimens indicated significant strength reductions at long lives, particularly in moisture conditioned specimens.

Ramani, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Soil moisture variation patterns observed in Hand County, South Dakota

Soil moisture data were taken during 1976 (April, June, October), 1977 (April, May, June), and 1978 (May, June, July) Hand County, South Dakota as part of the ground truth used in NASA's aircraft experiments to study the use of microwave radiometers for the remote sensing of soil moisture. The spatial variability observed on the ground during each of the sampling events was studied. The data reported are the mean gravimetric soil moisture contained in three surface horizon depths: 0 to 2.5, 0 to 5 and 0 to 10 cm. The overall moisture levels ranged from extremely dry conditions in June 1976 to very wet in May 1978, with a relatively even distribution of values within that range. It is indicated that well drained sites have to be partitioned from imperfectly drained areas when attempting to characterize the general moisture profile throughout an area of varying soil and cover type conditions. It is also found that the variability in moisture content is greatest in the 0 to 2.5 cm measurements and decreases as the measurements are integrated over a greater depth. It is also determined that the sampling intensity of 10 measurements per km is adequate to estimate the mean moisture with an uncertainty of + or - 3 percent under average moisture conditions in areas of moderate to good drainage.

Jones, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Multifrequency remote sensing of soil moisture

Multifrequency sensor data collected at Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas using NASA's C-130 aircraft were used to determine which of the all-weather microwave sensors demonstrated the highest correlation to surface soil moisture over optimal bare soil conditions, and to develop and test techniques which use visible/infrared sensors to compensate for the vegetation effect in this sensor's response to soil moisture. The L-band passive microwave radiometer was found to be the most suitable single sensor system to estimate soil moisture over bare fields. In comparison to other active and passive microwave sensors the L-band radiometer (1) was influenced least by ranges in surface roughness; (2) demonstrated the most sensitivity to soil moisture differences in terms of the range of return from the full range of soil moisture; and (3) was less sensitive to errors in measurement in relation to the range of sensor response. L-band emissivity related more strongly to soil moisture when moisture was expressed as percent of field capacity. The perpendicular vegetation index as determined from the visible/infrared sensors was useful as a measure of the vegetation effect on the L-band radiometer response to soil moisture.

Theis, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Accomplishments of the NASA Johnson Space Center portion of the soil moisture project in fiscal year 1981

The NASA/JSC ground scatterometer system was used in a row structure and row direction effects experiment to understand these effects on radar remote sensing of soil moisture. Also, a modification of the scatterometer system was begun and is continuing, to allow cross-polarization experiments to be conducted in fiscal years 1982 and 1983. Preprocessing of the 1978 agricultural soil moisture experiment (ASME) data was completed. Preparations for analysis of the ASME data is fiscal year 1982 were completed. A radar image simulation procedure developed by the University of Kansas is being improved. Profile soil moisture model outputs were compared quantitatively for the same soil and climate conditions. A new model was developed and tested to predict the soil moisture characteristic (water tension versus volumetric soil moisture content) from particle-size distribution and bulk density data. Relationships between surface-zone soil moisture, surface flux, and subsurface moisture conditions are being studied as well as the ways in which measured soil moisture (as obtained from remote sensing) can be used for agricultural applications.

Paris, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A microwave systems approach to measuring root zone soil moisture

Computer microwave satellite simulation models were developed and the program was used to test the ability of a coarse resolution passive microwave sensor to measure soil moisture over large areas, and to evaluate the effect of heterogeneous ground covers with the resolution cell on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimate. The use of realistic scenes containing only 10% to 15% bare soil and significant vegetation made it possible to observe a 60% K decrease in brightness temperature from a 5% soil moisture to a 35% soil moisture at a 21 cm microwave wavelength, providing a 1.5 K to 2 K per percent soil moisture sensitivity to soil moisture. It was shown that resolution does not affect the basic ability to measure soil moisture with a microwave radiometer system. Experimental microwave and ground field data were acquired for developing and testing a root zone soil moisture prediction algorithm. The experimental measurements demonstrated that the depth of penetration at a 21 cm microwave wavelength is not greater than 5 cm.

Newton, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Synergism of active and passive microwave data for estimating bare surface soil moisture

Active and passive microwave sensors were applied effectively to the problem of estimating the surface soil moisture in a variety of environmental conditions. Research to date has shown that both types of sensors are also sensitive to the surface roughness and the vegetation cover. In estimating the soil moisture, the effect of the vegetation and roughness are often corrected either by acquiring multi-configuration (frequency and polarization) data or by adjusting the surface parameters in order to match the model predictions to the measured data. Due to the limitations on multi-configuration spaceborne data and the lack of a priori knowledge of the surface characteristics for parameter adjustments, it was suggested that the synergistic use of the sensors may improve the estimation of the soil moisture over the extreme range of naturally occurring soil and vegetation conditions. To investigate this problem, the backscattering and emission from a bare soil surface using the classical rough surface scattering theory were modeled. The model combines the small perturbation and the Kirchhoff approximations in conjunction with the Peak formulation to cover a wide range of surface roughness parameters with respect to frequency for both active and passive measurements. In this approach, the same analytical method was used to calculate the backscattering and emissivity. Therefore, the active and passive simulations can be combined at various polarizations and frequencies in order to estimate the soil moisture more actively. As a result, it is shown that (1) the emissivity is less dependent on the surface correlation length, (2) the ratio of the backscattering coefficient (HH) over the surface reflectivity (H) is almost independent of the soil moisture for a wide range of surface roughness, and (3) this ratio can be approximated as a linear function of the surface rms height. The results were compared with the data obtained by a multi-frequency radiometer-scatterometer system working at frequencies between 3.0 GHz to 11.0 GHz. The data were acquired over bare soil surfaces with moisture variations due to freezing and thawing and roughness changes due to rain and erosion. The model predictions are shown to be in reasonable agreement with the data. In addition, it was shown that the same ratio when calculated from the data shows almost no dependence on the soil moisture. Finally, a simple technique which combines the backscattering coefficient at HH polarization (active sensing) with the emissivity at H polarization (passive sensing) is suggested for retrieving the soil moisture from bare soil surfaces.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Retrieval of Soil Moisture and Roughness from the Polarimetric Radar Response

The main objective of this investigation was the characterization of soil moisture using imaging radars. In order to accomplish this task, a number of intermediate steps had to be undertaken. In this proposal, the theoretical, numerical, and experimental aspects of electromagnetic scattering from natural surfaces was considered with emphasis on remote sensing of soil moisture. In the general case, the microwave backscatter from natural surfaces is mainly influenced by three major factors: (1) the roughness statistics of the soil surface, (2) soil moisture content, and (3) soil surface cover. First the scattering problem from bare-soil surfaces was considered and a hybrid model that relates the radar backscattering coefficient to soil moisture and surface roughness was developed. This model is based on extensive experimental measurements of the radar polarimetric backscatter response of bare soil surfaces at microwave frequencies over a wide range of moisture conditions and roughness scales in conjunction with existing theoretical surface scattering models in limiting cases (small perturbation, physical optics, and geometrical optics models). Also a simple inversion algorithm capable of providing accurate estimates of soil moisture content and surface rms height from single-frequency multi-polarization radar observations was developed. The accuracy of the model and its inversion algorithm is demonstrated using independent data sets. Next the hybrid model for bare-soil surfaces is made fully polarimetric by incorporating the parameters of the co- and cross-polarized phase difference into the model. Experimental data in conjunction with numerical simulations are used to relate the soil moisture content and surface roughness to the phase difference statistics. For this purpose, a novel numerical scattering simulation for inhomogeneous dielectric random surfaces was developed. Finally the scattering problem of short vegetation cover above a rough soil surface was considered. A general scattering model for grass-blades of arbitrary cross section was developed and incorporated in a first order random media model. The vegetation model and the bare-soil model are combined and the accuracy of the combined model is evaluated against experimental observations from a wheat field over the entire growing season. A complete set of ground-truth data and polarimetric backscatter data were collected. Also an inversion algorithm for estimating soil moisture and surface roughness from multi-polarized multi-frequency observations of vegetation-covered ground is developed.

Sarabandi, Kamal↗

NASA NTRS1996

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Microwave remote sensing provides a unique capability for direct observation of soil moisture. Remote measurements from space afford the possibility of obtaining frequent, global sampling of soil moisture over a large fraction of the Earth's land surface. Microwave measurements have the benefit of being largely unaffected by cloud cover and variable surface solar illumination, but accurate soil moisture estimates are limited to regions that have either bare soil or low to moderate amounts of vegetation cover. A particular advantage of passive microwave sensors is that in the absence of significant vegetation cover soil moisture is the dominant effect on the received signal. The spatial resolutions of passive Microwave soil moisture sensors currently considered for space operation are in the range 10-20 km. The most useful frequency range for soil moisture sensing is 1-5 GHz. System design considerations include optimum choice of frequencies, polarizations, and scanning configurations, based on trade-offs between requirements for high vegetation penetration capability, freedom from electromagnetic interference, manageable antenna size and complexity, and the requirement that a sufficient number of information channels be available to correct for perturbing geophysical effects. This paper outlines the basic principles of the passive microwave technique for soil moisture sensing, and reviews briefly the status of current retrieval methods. Particularly promising are methods for optimally assimilating passive microwave data into hydrologic models. Further studies are needed to investigate the effects on microwave observations of within-footprint spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover and subsurface soil characteristics, and to assess the limitations imposed by heterogeneity on the retrievability of large-scale soil moisture information from remote observations.

Njoku, Eni G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Timescales of Soil Moisture Anomalies: Results from Two GCMs

Soil moisture anomalies dissipate over timescales that may span weeks to months. Characterizing the geographical and seasonal variations in these timescales can have important practical benefit; significant soil moisture "memory" allows long-lead forecasts of soil moisture, which have been found in recent studies to be essential for useful Ion--lead forecasts of precipitation in many regions. In this talk, we will present and compare the soil moisture timescales derived in two separate general circulation model (GCM) studies. Both studies employ multiple ensembles of short-term climate simulations. Timescales at a given point are effectively estimated by determining how quickly the soil moisture distribution generated in one ensemble of simulations (characterized by a unique set of initial soil moisture conditions) approaches that produced by another ensemble (characterized by a different set of initial soil moisture conditions). The talk will include a discussion of why the timescales produced by the two GCMs differ in some regions, and it will also describe the impact of soil moisture memory on simulated precipitation.

Koster, Randal D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗