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At least 145 records · Page 8

An efficient parallel sampling technique for Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal model: Analysis with two crash count datasets

Our study investigates the Multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) model that jointly models crash frequency and severity accounting for correlations. The ordinary univariate count models analyze crashes of different severity level separately ignoring the correlations among severity levels. The MVPLN model is capable to incorporate the general correlation structure and takes account of the over dispersion in the data that leads to a superior data fitting. But, the traditional estimation approach for MVPLN model is computationally expensive, which often limits the use of MVPLN model in practice. In this work, a parallel sampling scheme is introduced to improve the original Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation approach of the MVPLN model, which significantly reduces the model estimation time. Two MVPLN models are developed using the pedestrian vehicle crash data collected in New York City from 2002 to 2006, and the highway-injury data from Washington State (5-year data from 1990 to 1994) The Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) is used to evaluate the model fitting. The estimation results show that the MVPLN models provide a superior fit over univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN), univariate Poisson, and Negative Binomial models. Moreover, the correlations among the latent effects of different severity levels are found significant in both datasets that justifies the importance of jointly modeling crash frequency and severity accounting for correlations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantitative SANS and multi-model analysis of spacer-dependent micellization of urea-based gemini surfactants

The micellization behavior of urea-based cationic gemini surfactants was investigated using small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) with multi-model form factor analysis. A homologous series of surfactants with urea group included in the hydrophobic tail and polymethylene spacers consisting of two to ten methylene units was analyzed using three form factor models: a core–shell ellipsoid and two variants of homogeneous ellipsoids. The results from all models show a consistent trend of the micelle structures, confirming that the spacer length critically influences micellar geometry, aggregation number, and hydration. The surfactant with four CH 2 groups in the spacer formed the largest micelles with the highest aggregation number, while longer spacers led to progressively smaller, more compact aggregates. The shell hydration—quantified as the volume fraction of heavy water within the hydrophilic region—decreased systematically with increasing spacer length due to enhanced hydrophobicity of the headgroup-spacer region. Intermicellar interactions, modeled as screened Coulomb interaction using the rescaled mean spherical approximation (RMSA), revealed the strongest electrostatic repulsion for the case of four methylene groups in the spacer, corresponding to the highest micellar charge and largest interparticle spacing. The observed spacer-dependent trends were robust across all modeling approaches, demonstrating that the spacer length serves as a key structural determinant of self-assembly in this type of urea-based gemini systems. These findings provide insight into the design of gemini surfactants with tailored aggregation behavior for applications in drug delivery, nanostructure templating, and solubilization technologies.

Core–shell ellipsoid model↗

Modeling Analysis for Nuclear Material Transport Package

This paper describes the computational models for the thermal analyses for 9975 nuclear material package under the Normal Conditions of Transport (NCT) and the Hypothetical Accident Conditions (HAC). The package 9975 is a DOE certified package that has been used in the DOE complex for transportation and long term storage of radioactive material. The NCT and HAC thermal analyses for the 9975 package were performed here by taking a computational heat transfer method. The HAC thermal models described here are identical to the models in the current DOE certified 9975 package. Thermal models in this work are for an undamaged package to meet all the regulatory requirements during an HAC thermal event. The model was created using modified shielding where the lead was encapsulated in a 0.036 inches stainless steel casing. The impact of this casing was studied earlier when the modification was proposed and it was found to have minimal impact on the component temperatures. Therefore, the analyses in this paper are good for packages with or without the shielding modifications. Analytical studies show that the realistic value for the solar absorptivity for the stainless steel surface fabricated from the rolling operation is about 0.5. The NCT analyses documented in this report use an absorptivity value of 0.5 to get more realistic component temperature results. Sensitivity studies were also performed to assess the impact of variability in the solar absorptivity for drum surface in the previous work for the NRC certification. The analysis in this paper is based on PuO{sub 2} in a food can. The food can is considered uncredited convenience containers inside the Primary Containment Vessel (PCV) of the 9975 package. PCV is located inside Secondary Containment Vessel (SCV). PuO{sub 2} has a density of 2 g/cc and a heat generation rate of 19 watts. This calculation evaluates the thermal performance for 9975 package with food can configuration during NCT and HAC per NRC regulations in 10 CFR Part 71. The objective of the calculation is to demonstrate that the maximum component temperatures are below their design limits. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Finite-element-analysis model and preliminary ground testing of controls-structures interaction evolutionary model reflector

Results of two different nonlinear finite element analyses and preliminary test results for the final design of the Controls-Structures Interaction Evolutionary Model are presented. Load-deflection data bases are generalized from analysis and testing of the 16-foot diameter, dish shaped reflector. Natural frequencies and mode shapes are obtained from vibrational analysis. Experimental and analytical results show similar trends; however, future test hardware modifications and finite element model refinement would be necessary to obtain better correlation. The two nonlinear analysis procedures are both adequate techniques for the analysis of prestressed structures with complex geometries.

Reaves, Mercedes C.↗

Aerosols, Chemistry, and Radiative Forcing: A 3-D Model Analysis of Satellite and ACE-Asia data (ACMAP)

We propose a research project to incorporate a global 3-D model and satellite data into the multi-national Aerosol Characterization Experiment-Asia (ACE-Asia) mission. Our objectives are (1) to understand the physical, chemical, and optical properties of aerosols and the processes that control those properties over the Asian-Pacific region, (2) to investigate the interaction between aerosols and tropospheric chemistry, and (3) to determine the aerosol radiative forcing over the Asia-Pacific region. We will use the Georgia TecWGoddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to link satellite observations and the ACE-Asia measurements. First, we will use the GOCART model to simulate aerosols and related species, and evaluate the model with satellite and in-situ observations. Second, the model generated aerosol vertical profiles and compositions will be used to validate the satellite products; and the satellite data will be used for during- and post- mission analysis. Third, we will use the model to analyze and interpret both satellite and ACE- Asia field campaign data and investigate the aerosol-chemistry interactions. Finally, we will calculate aerosol radiative forcing over the Asian-Pacific region, and assess the influence of Asian pollution in the global atmosphere. We propose a research project to incorporate a global 3-D model and satellite data into

Chin, Mian↗

Common radiation analysis model for 75,000 pound thrust NERVA engine (1137400E)

The mathematical model and sources of radiation used for the radiation analysis and shielding activities in support of the design of the 1137400E version of the 75,000 lbs thrust NERVA engine are presented. The nuclear subsystem (NSS) and non-nuclear components are discussed. The geometrical model for the NSS is two dimensional as required for the DOT discrete ordinates computer code or for an azimuthally symetrical three dimensional Point Kernel or Monte Carlo code. The geometrical model for the non-nuclear components is three dimensional in the FASTER geometry format. This geometry routine is inherent in the ANSC versions of the QAD and GGG Point Kernal programs and the COHORT Monte Carlo program. Data are included pertaining to a pressure vessel surface radiation source data tape which has been used as the basis for starting ANSC analyses with the DASH code to bridge into the COHORT Monte Carlo code using the WANL supplied DOT angular flux leakage data. In addition to the model descriptions and sources of radiation, the methods of analyses are briefly described.

Warman, E. A.↗

Cryogenic Fuel Tank Draining Analysis Model

One of the technological challenges in designing advanced hypersonic aircraft and the next generation of spacecraft is developing reusable flight-weight cryogenic fuel tanks. As an aid in the design and analysis of these cryogenic tanks, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed specifically for the analysis of flow in a cryogenic fuel tank. This model employs the full set of Navier-Stokes equations, except that viscous dissipation is neglected in the energy equation. An explicit finite difference technique in two-dimensional generalized coordinates, approximated to second-order accuracy in both space and time is used. The stiffness resulting from the low Mach number is resolved by using artificial compressibility. The model simulates the transient, two-dimensional draining of a fuel tank cross section. To calculate the slosh wave dynamics the interface between the ullage gas and liquid fuel is modeled as a free surface. Then, experimental data for free convection inside a horizontal cylinder are compared with model results. Finally, cryogenic tank draining calculations are performed with three different wall heat fluxes to demonstrate the effect of wall heat flux on the internal tank flow field.

Greer, Donald↗

A51F-0123: Model Analysis of Tropospheric Aerosol Variability and Sources over the North Atlantic During NAAMES 2015-2016

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) is a five-year Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. We examine here the spatiotemporal variability and quantify the sources of tropospheric aerosols over the North Atlantic during the first two phases (November 2015 and May-June 2016) of NAAMES using a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The model is driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It includes sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol thermodynamics coupled to ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon-aerosol chemistry, mineral dust, sea salt, elemental and organic carbon aerosols, and especially a recently implemented parameterization for the marine primary organic aerosol emission. The simulated aerosols over the North Atlantic are evaluated with available satellite (e.g., MODIS) observations of aerosol optical depths (AOD), and aircraft and ship aerosol measurements. We diagnose transport pathways for continental pollution outflow over the North Atlantic using carbon monoxide, an excellent tracer for anthropogenic pollution transport. We also conduct model perturbation experiments to quantify the relative contributions of terrestrial and oceanic sources to the aerosol loading, AOD, and their variability over the North Atlantic.

aerosols↗

Comprehensive Analysis Modeling of Small-Scale UAS Rotors

Multicopter unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), or drones, have continued their explosive growth in recent years. With this growth comes demand for increased performance as the limits of existing technologies are reached. In order to better design multicopter UAS aircraft, better performance prediction tools are needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at using the rotorcraft comprehensive analysis code CAMRAD II to model a multicopter UAS rotor in hover. Parametric studies were performed to determine the level of fidelity needed in the analysis code inputs to achieve results that match test data. Overall, the results show that CAMRAD II is well suited to model small-scale UAS rotors in hover. This paper presents the results of the parametric studies as well as recommendations for the application of comprehensive analysis codes to multicopter UAS rotors.

Analysis↗

Offshore Wind to Hydrogen - Modeling, Analysis, Testing and International Collaboration Work

This project explores electrolytic hydrogen production from an offshore wind turbine by: Modeling: Simulate an offshore wind turbine and generate power output profiles; Analysis: Analyze offshore conditions and determine operational modes of the stack; Testing: Perform hardware testing to evaluate dynamic characteristics; and International Collaboration Work: Share learnings and publish. Potential Outcomes: Accelerate development of an integrated, in-turbine offshore wind hydrogen system; and Support two DOE Energy Earthshots - Hydrogen and Floating Offshore Wind.

electrolyzer↗

System Safety Risk Analysis Models (SSRAM)

This presentation provides a high level overview of the System Safety Risk Analysis (SSRAM) methodology and motivation.

Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Laboratories↗

High Altitude Long Endurance UAV Analysis Model Development and Application Study Comparing Solar Powered Airplane and Airship Station-Keeping Capabilities

There have been ongoing efforts in the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center to develop a suite of integrated physics-based computational utilities suitable for modeling and analyzing extended-duration missions carried out using solar powered aircraft. From these efforts, SolFlyte has emerged as a state-of-the-art vehicle analysis and mission simulation tool capable of modeling both heavier-than-air (HTA) and lighter-than-air (LTA) vehicle concepts. This study compares solar powered airplane and airship station-keeping capability during a variety of high altitude missions, using SolFlyte as the primary analysis component. Three Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) concepts were designed for this study: an airplane (Operating Empty Weight (OEW) = 3285 kilograms, span = 127 meters, array area = 450 square meters), a small airship (OEW = 3790 kilograms, length = 115 meters, array area = 570 square meters), and a large airship (OEW = 6250 kilograms, length = 135 meters, array area = 1080 square meters). All the vehicles were sized for payload weight and power requirements of 454 kilograms and 5 kilowatts, respectively. Seven mission sites distributed throughout the United States were selected to provide a basis for assessing the vehicle energy budgets and site-persistent operational availability. Seasonal, 30-day duration missions were simulated at each of the sites during March, June, September, and December; one-year duration missions were simulated at three of the sites. Atmospheric conditions during the simulated missions were correlated to National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) historical data measurements at each mission site, at four flight levels. Unique features of the SolFlyte model are described, including methods for calculating recoverable and energy-optimal flight trajectories and the effects of shadows on solar energy collection. Results of this study indicate that: 1) the airplane concept attained longer periods of on-site capability than either airship concept, and 2) the airship concepts can attain higher levels of energy collection and storage than the airplane concept; however, attaining these energy benefits requires adverse design trades of reduced performance (small airship) or excessive solar array area (large airship).

Ozoroski, Thomas A.↗

Mars Phoenix Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation Design and Modelling Analysis

The 2007 Mars Phoenix Lander was launched in August of 2007 on a ten month cruise to reach the northern plains of Mars in May 2008. Its mission continues NASA s pursuit to find evidence of water on Mars. Phoenix carries upon it a slew of science instruments to study soil and ice samples from the northern region of the planet, an area previously undiscovered by robotic landers. In order for these science instruments to be useful, it was necessary for Phoenix to perform a safe entry, descent, and landing (EDL) onto the surface of Mars. The EDL design was defined through simulation and analysis of the various phases of the descent. An overview of the simulation and various models developed to characterize the EDL performance is provided. Monte Carlo statistical analysis was performed to assess the performance and robustness of the Phoenix EDL system and are presented in this paper. Using these simulation and modelling tools throughout the design and into the operations phase, the Mars Phoenix EDL was a success on May 25, 2008.

Prince, Jill L.↗

Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Multiscale Preferential Flow

The research agenda of this project are: (1) Modeling of preferential transport from mesoscale to macroscale; (2) Modeling of fast flow in narrow fractures in porous media; (3) Pseudo-parabolic Models of Dynamic Capillary Pressure; (4) Adaptive computational upscaling of flow with inertia from porescale to mesoscale; (5) Adaptive modeling of nonlinear coupled systems; and (6) Adaptive modeling and a-posteriori estimators for coupled systems with heterogeneous data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MPS solidification model. Analysis and calculation of macrosegregation in a casting ingot

Work performed on several existing solidification models for which computer codes and documentation were developed is presented. The models describe the solidification of alloys in which there is a time varying zone of coexisting solid and liquid phases; i.e., the S/L zone. The primary purpose of the models is to calculate macrosegregation in a casting or ingot which results from flow of interdendritic liquid in this S/L zone during solidification. The flow, driven by solidification contractions and by gravity acting on density gradients in the interdendritic liquid, is modeled as flow through a porous medium. In Model 1, the steady state model, the heat flow characteristics are those of steady state solidification; i.e., the S/L zone is of constant width and it moves at a constant velocity relative to the mold. In Model 2, the unsteady state model, the width and rate of movement of the S/L zone are allowed to vary with time as it moves through the ingot. Each of these models exists in two versions. Models 1 and 2 are applicable to binary alloys; models 1M and 2M are applicable to multicomponent alloys.

Poirier, D. R.↗