Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “methods: statistical”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Adding ($\mathcal{α}$,n) Emission to an Existing Subcritical Benchmark Statistical Uncertainty Method

Subcritical measurements often use radiation detectors to infer parameters related to the physics of a measured system. One type of subcritical measurements typically performed are called neutron noise measurements. These types of measurements utilize the fact that prompt neutrons are produced from fission immediately after a fission event and are therefore correlated in time. Subcritical benchmarks require evaluation of the statistical and systematic uncertainties of a measurement. Previous work established methods for determining statistical and systematic uncertainties in subcritical benchmarks. The data were analyzed using the Hage-Cifarelli formalism of the Feynman Variance-to-Mean method. The previous work made an assumption that the ($\mathcal{α}$,n) emission rate was negligible. This assumption was used because the previous work focused on systems with metal Plutonium. This work extends the existing statistical uncertainty method to include ($\mathcal{α}$,n) emissions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

New Developments in the Embedded Statistical Coupling Method: Atomistic/Continuum Crack Propagation

A concurrent multiscale modeling methodology that embeds a molecular dynamics (MD) region within a finite element (FEM) domain has been enhanced. The concurrent MD-FEM coupling methodology uses statistical averaging of the deformation of the atomistic MD domain to provide interface displacement boundary conditions to the surrounding continuum FEM region, which, in turn, generates interface reaction forces that are applied as piecewise constant traction boundary conditions to the MD domain. The enhancement is based on the addition of molecular dynamics-based cohesive zone model (CZM) elements near the MD-FEM interface. The CZM elements are a continuum interpretation of the traction-displacement relationships taken from MD simulations using Cohesive Zone Volume Elements (CZVE). The addition of CZM elements to the concurrent MD-FEM analysis provides a consistent set of atomistically-based cohesive properties within the finite element region near the growing crack. Another set of CZVEs are then used to extract revised CZM relationships from the enhanced embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM) simulation of an edge crack under uniaxial loading.

Saether, E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Some experiments on the effect of remote sounding temperatures upon weather forecasting

A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Halem, M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Methodologies to Integrate Experimental and Computational Research

Development of advanced algorithms for simulating engine flow paths requires the integration of fundamental experiments with the validation of enhanced mathematical models. In this paper, we provide an overview of statistical methods to strategically and efficiently conduct experiments and computational model refinement. Moreover, the integration of experimental and computational research efforts is emphasized. With a statistical engineering perspective, scientific and engineering expertise is combined with statistical sciences to gain deeper insights into experimental phenomenon and code development performance; supporting the overall research objectives. The particular statistical methods discussed are design of experiments, response surface methodology, and uncertainty analysis and planning. Their application is illustrated with a coaxial free jet experiment and a turbulence model refinement investigation. Our goal is to provide an overview, focusing on concepts rather than practice, to demonstrate the benefits of using statistical methods in research and development, thereby encouraging their broader and more systematic application.

Parker, P. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-C-BRD-01: A Statistical Modeling Method for Quality Control of Intensity- Modulated Radiation Therapy Planning

Purpose: To apply a statistical modeling approach, threshold modeling (TM), for quality control of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment plans. Methods: A quantitative measure, which was the weighted sum of violations of dose/dose-volume constraints, was first developed to represent the quality of each IMRT plan. Threshold modeling approach, which is is an extension of extreme value theory in statistics and is an effect way to model extreme values, was then applied to analyze the quality of the plans summarized by our quantitative measures. Our approach modeled the plans generated by planners as a series of independent and identically distributed random variables and described the behaviors of them if the plan quality was controlled below certain threshold. We tested our approach with five locally advanced head and neck cancer patients retrospectively. Two statistics were incorporated for numerical analysis: probability of quality improvement (PQI) of the plans and expected amount of improvement on the quantitative measure (EQI). Results: After clinical planners generated 15 plans for each patient, we applied our approach to obtain the PQI and EQI as if planners would generate additional 15 plans. For two of the patients, the PQI was significantly higher than the other three (0.17 and 0.18 comparing to 0.08, 0.01 and 0.01). The actual percentage of the additional 15 plans that outperformed the best of initial 15 plans was 20% and 27% comparing to 11%, 0% and 0%. EQI for the two potential patients were 34.5 and 32.9 and the rest of three patients were 9.9, 1.4 and 6.6. The actual improvements obtained were 28.3 and 20.5 comparing to 6.2, 0 and 0. Conclusion: TM is capable of reliably identifying the potential quality improvement of IMRT plans. It provides clinicians an effective tool to assess the trade-off between extra planning effort and achievable plan quality. This work was supported in part by NIH/NCI grant CA130814.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dynamics of the D{sup +}+ H{sub 2}→ HD + H{sup +} reaction at the low energy regime by means of a statistical quantum method

The D{sup +}+H{sub 2}(v= 0, j= 0, 1) → HD+H{sup +} reaction has been investigated at the low energy regime by means of a statistical quantum mechanical (SQM) method. Reaction probabilities and integral cross sections (ICSs) between a collisional energy of 10{sup −4} eV and 0.1 eV have been calculated and compared with previously reported results of a time independent quantum mechanical (TIQM) approach. The TIQM results exhibit a dense profile with numerous narrow resonances down to E{sub c}∼ 10{sup −2} eV and for the case of H{sub 2}(v= 0, j= 0) a prominent peak is found at ∼2.5 × 10{sup −4} eV. The analysis at the state-to-state level reveals that this feature is originated in those processes which yield the formation of rotationally excited HD(v′= 0, j′ > 0). The statistical predictions reproduce reasonably well the overall behaviour of the TIQM ICSs at the larger energy range (E{sub c}⩾ 10{sup −3} eV). Thermal rate constants are in qualitative agreement for the whole range of temperatures investigated in this work, 10–100 K, although the SQM values remain above the TIQM results for both initial H{sub 2} rotational states, j= 0 and 1. The enlargement of the asymptotic region for the statistical approach is crucial for a proper description at low energies. In particular, we find that the SQM method leads to rate coefficients in terms of the energy in perfect agreement with previously reported measurements if the maximum distance at which the calculation is performed increases noticeably with respect to the value employed to reproduce the TIQM results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1966

Wave propagation and turbulent media.

Book on electromagnetic wave propagation and turbulent media covering invariant imbedding method, turbulence generation, statistical methods of analysis, etc

INVARIANT IMBEDDING↗
NASA NTRS1998

Examination of two methods for statistical analysis of data with magnitude and direction emphasizing vestibular research applications

When the dependent (or response) variable response variable in an experiment has direction and magnitude, one approach that has been used for statistical analysis involves splitting magnitude and direction and applying univariate statistical techniques to the components. However, such treatment of quantities with direction and magnitude is not justifiable mathematically and can lead to incorrect conclusions about relationships among variables and, as a result, to flawed interpretations. This note discusses a problem with that practice and recommends mathematically correct procedures to be used with dependent variables that have direction and magnitude for 1) computation of mean values, 2) statistical contrasts of and confidence intervals for means, and 3) correlation methods.

Vestibule↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bootstrap inversion technique for atmospheric trace gas source detection and quantification using long open-path laser measurements

Advances in natural gas extraction technology have led to increased activity in the production and transport sectors in the United States and, as a consequence, an increased need for reliable monitoring of methane leaks to the atmosphere. We present a statistical methodology in combination with an observing system for the detection and attribution of fugitive emissions of methane from distributed potential source location landscapes such as natural gas production sites. We measure long (> 500 m), integrated open-path concentrations of atmospheric methane using a dual frequency comb spectrometer and combine measurements with an atmospheric transport model to infer leak locations and strengths using a novel statistical method, the non-zero minimum bootstrap (NZMB). The new statistical method allows us to determine whether the empirical distribution of possible source strengths for a given location excludes zero. Using this information, we identify leaking source locations (i.e., natural gas wells) through rejection of the null hypothesis that the source is not leaking. The method is tested with a series of synthetic data inversions with varying measurement density and varying levels of model–data mismatch. It is also tested with field observations of (1) a non-leaking source location and (2) a source location where a controlled emission of 3.1 × 10 -5 kg s -1 of methane gas is released over a period of several hours. This series of synthetic data tests and outdoor field observations using a controlled methane release demonstrates the viability of the approach for the detection and sizing of very small leaks of methane across large distances (4 + km 2 in synthetic tests). The field tests demonstrate the ability to attribute small atmospheric enhancements of 17 ppb to the emitting source location against a background of combined atmospheric (e.g., background methane variability) and measurement uncertainty of 5 ppb (1 σ ), when measurements are averaged over 2 min. The results of the synthetic and field data testing show that the new observing system and statistical approach greatly decreases the incidence of false alarms (that is, wrongly identifying a well site to be leaking) compared with the same tests that do not use the NZMB approach and therefore offers increased leak detection and sizing capabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale

Abstract. This study explores the causal relationships between catchment water availability, vapor pressure deficit, and gross primary productivity (GPP) across 341 catchments in the contiguous US. Seasonal climatic, hydrological, and vegetation characteristics were represented using the Horton index, ecological aridity index, evaporative fraction index, and carbon uptake efficiency. Statistical methods, including circularity statistics, correlation analysis, and causality tests, were employed to determine the complex interactions between catchment wetness, atmospheric dryness, and vegetation carbon uptake. The results revealed a maximum lag of 2 months in the intra-annual variability of catchment water supply–productivity and atmospheric water demand–productivity relationships, with hysteresis patterns varying with the catchment's hydrological characteristics. In catchments not permanently under water-limited or energy-limited conditions, vegetation experiences hydrological stress during the peak growing period, coinciding with the highest gross primary productivity and carbon uptake efficiency being out of phase with the Horton index and in phase with the evaporative fraction index. Causality analysis highlights strong temporal continuity in GPP seasonal characteristics, with a cause–effect relationship between catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity spanning a maximum of 2 months. These findings underscore the need for a comprehensive functional framework that integrates catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity to enhance our understanding and predictive capabilities with regard to ecosystem responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Quantitative knowledge acquisition for expert systems

A common problem in the design of expert systems is the definition of rules from data obtained in system operation or simulation. While it is relatively easy to collect data and to log the comments of human operators engaged in experiments, generalizing such information to a set of rules has not previously been a direct task. A statistical method is presented for generating rule bases from numerical data, motivated by an example based on aircraft navigation with multiple sensors. The specific objective is to design an expert system that selects a satisfactory suite of measurements from a dissimilar, redundant set, given an arbitrary navigation geometry and possible sensor failures. The systematic development is described of a Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) Expert System from Kalman Filter convariance data. The method invokes two statistical techniques: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 Algorithm. The ANOVA technique indicates whether variations of problem parameters give statistically different covariance results, and the ID3 algorithms identifies the relationships between the problem parameters using probabilistic knowledge extracted from a simulation example set. Both are detailed.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared IRIS?"

Harrison's (2001) Comment on the Methodology in Lindzen et al (2001) has prompted re-examination of several aspects of study. Probably the most significant disagreement in our conclusions is due to our different approaches to minimizing the influence of long-time-scale variations in the variables A and T on the results. Given the strength of the annual cycle and the 20-month period covered by the data, we believe that removing monthly means is a better approach to minimizing the long-time-scale behavior of the data than removal of the linear trend, which might actually add spurious long- time- scale variability into the modified data. We have also indicated how our statistical methods of establishing statistical significance differ. More definitive conclusions may only possible after more data have been analyzed, but we feel that our results are robust enough to encourage further study of this phenomenon.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparisons of Wilks’ and Monte Carlo Methods in Response to the 10CFR50.46(c) Proposed Rulemaking

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10CFR50.46(c), the US NRC put forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnup-dependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently nearly all the fuel rods in a reactor core need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to demonstrate compliance to the safety limits. New analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of the limiting rods as well as to quantify the safety margins under LOCA conditions. With the new analysis method presented in this work, the limiting transient case and the limiting rods can be easily identified to quantify the safety margins in response to the proposed new rulemaking. In this work, the best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis capability for large break LOCA with the new cladding embrittlement criteria using the RELAP5-3D code is established and demonstrated with a reduced set of uncertainty parameters. Both the direct Monte Carlo method and the Wilks’ nonparametric statistical method can be used to perform uncertainty quantification. Wilks’ method has become the de-facto industry standard to perform uncertainty quantification in BEPU LOCA analyses. Despite its widespread adoption by the industry, the use of small sample sizes to infer statement of compliance to the existing 10CFR50.46 rule, has been a major cause of unrealized operational margin in today’s BEPU methods. Moreover the debate on the proper interpretation of the Wilks’ theorem in the context of safety analyses is not fully resolved yet, even more than two decades after its introduction in the frame of safety analyses in the nuclear industry. This represents both a regulatory and application risk in rolling out new methods. With the 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking, the deficiencies of the Wilks’ approach are further exacerbated. The direct Monte Carlo approach offers a robust alternative to perform uncertainty quantification within the context of BEPU analyses. In this work, the Monte Carlo method is compared with the Wilks’ method in response to the NRC 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking.

10CFR50.46(c)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Guide to Using Onionskin Analysis Code (U)

This document is a guide to using R-code written for the purpose of analyzing onionskin experiments. We expect the user to be very familiar with statistical methods and the R programming language. For more details about onionskin experiments and the statistical methods mentioned in this document see Storlie, Fugate, et al. (2013). Engineers at LANL experiment with detonators and high explosives to assess performance. The experimental unit, called an onionskin, is a hemisphere consisting of a detonator and a booster pellet surrounded by explosive material. When the detonator explodes, a streak camera mounted above the pole of the hemisphere records when the shock wave arrives at the surface. The output from the camera is a two-dimensional image that is transformed into a curve that shows the arrival time as a function of polar angle. The statistical challenge is to characterize a baseline population of arrival time curves and to compare the baseline curves to curves from a new, so-called, test series. The hope is that the new test series of curves is statistically similar to the baseline population.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1999

Recent Development on O(+) - O Collision Frequency and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Coupling

The collision frequency between an oxygen atom and its singly charged ion controls the momentum transfer between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. There has been a long standing discrepancy, extending over a decade, between the theoretical and empirical determination of this frequency: the empirical value of this frequency exceeded the theoretical value by a factor of 1.7. Recent improvements in theory were obtained by using accurate oxygen ion-oxygen atom potential energy curves, and partial wave quantum mechanical calculations. We now have applied three independent statistical methods to the observational data, obtained at the MIT/Millstone Hill Observatory, consisting of two sets A and B. These methods give results consistent with each other, and together with the recent theoretical improvements, bring the ratio close to unity, as it should be. The three statistical methods lead to an average for the ratio of the empirical to the theoretical values equal to 0.98, with an uncertainty of +/-8%, resolving the old discrepancy between theory and observation. The Hines statistics, and the lognormal distribution statistics, both give lower and upper bounds for the Set A equal to 0.89 and 1.02, respectively. The related bounds for the Set B are 1.06 and 1.17. The average values of these bounds thus bracket the ideal value of the ratio which should be equal to unity. The main source of uncertainties are errors in the profile of the oxygen atom density, which is of the order of 11%. An alternative method to find the oxygen atom density is being suggested.

Omidvar, K.↗