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At least 145 records · Page 8

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗

Distributed intelligence for supervisory control

Supervisory control systems must deal with various types of intelligence distributed throughout the layers of control. Typical layers are real-time servo control, off-line planning and reasoning subsystems and finally, the human operator. Design methodologies must account for the fact that the majority of the intelligence will reside with the human operator. Hierarchical decompositions and feedback loops as conceptual building blocks that provide a common ground for man-machine interaction are discussed. Examples of types of parallelism and parallel implementation on several classes of computer architecture are also discussed.

Wolfe, W. J.↗

Analyzing Array Manipulating Programs by Program Transformation

We explore a transformational approach to the problem of verifying simple array-manipulating programs. Traditionally, verification of such programs requires intricate analysis machinery to reason with universally quantified statements about symbolic array segments, such as "every data item stored in the segment A[i] to A[j] is equal to the corresponding item stored in the segment B[i] to B[j]." We define a simple abstract machine which allows for set-valued variables and we show how to translate programs with array operations to array-free code for this machine. For the purpose of program analysis, the translated program remains faithful to the semantics of array manipulation. Based on our implementation in LLVM, we evaluate the approach with respect to its ability to extract useful invariants and the cost in terms of code size.

Program Transformation↗

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗

Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

Boy, Guy A.↗

Program to develop a performance and heat load prediction system for multistage turbines

Flows in low-aspect ratio turbines, such as the SSME fuel turbine, are three dimensional and highly unsteady due to the relative motion of adjacent airfoil rows and the circumferential and spanwise gradients in total pressure and temperature, The systems used to design these machines, however, are based on the assumption that the flow is steady. The codes utilized in these design systems are calibrated against turbine rig and engine data through the use of empirical correlations and experience factors. For high aspect ratio turbines, these codes yield reasonably accurate estimates of flow and temperature distributions. However, future design trends will see lower aspect ratio (reduced number of parts) and higher inlet temperature which will result in increased three dimensionality and flow unsteadiness in turbines. Analysis of recently acquired data indicate that temperature streaks and secondary flows generated in combustors and up-stream airfoils can have a large impact on the time-averaged temperature and angle distributions in downstream airfoil rows.

Sharma, OM↗

Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis Using a Weighted Least Squares Approach

A new approach is presented that uses a weighted least squares fit to analyze wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The weighted least squares fit is specifically designed to increase the influence of single-component loadings during the regression analysis. The weighted least squares fit also reduces the impact of calibration load schedule asymmetries on the predicted primary sensitivities of the balance gages. A weighting factor between zero and one is assigned to each calibration data point that depends on a simple count of its intentionally loaded load components or gages. The greater the number of a data point's intentionally loaded load components or gages is, the smaller its weighting factor becomes. The proposed approach is applicable to both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Methods that are used for the analysis of strain-gage balance calibration data in the aerospace testing community. The Iterative Method uses a reasonable estimate of the tare corrected load set as input for the determination of the weighting factors. The Non-Iterative Method, on the other hand, uses gage output differences relative to the natural zeros as input for the determination of the weighting factors. Machine calibration data of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate benefits of the proposed weighted least squares fit. In addition, a detailed derivation of the PRESS residuals associated with a weighted least squares fit is given in the appendices of the paper as this information could not be found in the literature. These PRESS residuals may be needed to evaluate the predictive capabilities of the final regression models that result from a weighted least squares fit of the balance calibration data.

calibration analysis↗

Limits to size for terrestrial telescopes - Two-stage optics

A wave front corrector inserted at the image of a surface producing an error can remove the wave front error over a reasonable field of view. The relationship of magnitude of error, constants of a given configuration, and the residual wave front error is explored. Results are presented of the production of a sample wave front error surface by diamond turning with the Large Optical Diamond Turning Machine (LODTM). The cost consequences of this new ability to upgrade a submillimeter-quality telescope to a high-acuity optical telescope are shown.

Meinel, Marjorie P.↗

Metrology of Large Parts

As discussed in the first chapter of this book, there are many different methods to measure a part using optical technology. Chapter 2 discussed the use of machine vision to measure macroscopic features such as length and position, which was extended to the use of interferometry as a linear measurement tool in chapter 3, and laser or other trackers to find the relation of key points on large parts in chapter 4. This chapter looks at measuring large parts to optical tolerances in the sub-micron range using interferometry, ranging, and optical tools discussed in the previous chapters. The purpose of this chapter is not to discuss specific metrology tools (such as interferometers or gauges), but to describe a systems engineering approach to testing large parts. Issues such as material warpage and temperature drifts that may be insignificant when measuring a part to micron levels under a microscope, as will be discussed in later chapters, can prove to be very important when making the same measurement over a larger part. In this chapter, we will define a set of guiding principles for successfully overcoming these challenges and illustrate the application of these principles with real world examples. While these examples are drawn from specific large optical testing applications, they inform the problems associated with testing any large part to optical tolerances. Manufacturing today relies on micrometer level part performance. Fields such as energy and transportation are demanding higher tolerances to provide increased efficiencies and fuel savings. By looking at how the optics industry approaches sub-micrometer metrology, one can gain a better understanding of the metrology challenges for any larger part specified to micrometer tolerances. Testing large parts, whether optical components or precision structures, to optical tolerances is just like testing small parts, only harder. Identical with what one does for small parts, a metrologist tests large parts and optics in particular to quantify their mechanical properties (such as dimensions, mass, etc); their optical prescription or design (i.e. radius of curvature, conic constant, vertex location, size); and their full part shape. And, just as with small parts, a metrologist accomplishes these tests using distance measuring instruments such as tape measures, inside micrometers, coordinate measuring machines, distance measuring interferometers; angle measuring instruments such as theodolites, autocollimators; and surface measuring instruments including interferometers, stylus profilers, interference microscopes, photogrammetric cameras, or other tools. However, while the methodology may be similar, it is more difficult to test a large object for the simple reason that most metrologists do not have the necessary intuition. The skills used to test small parts or optics in a laboratory do not extrapolate to testing large parts in an industrial setting any more than a backyard gardener might successfully operate a farm. But first, what is a large part? A simple definition might be the part's size or diameter. For optics and diffuse surface parts alike, the driving constraint is ability to illuminate the part's surface. For reflective convex mirrors, large is typically anything greater than 1 meter. But, for refractive optics, flats or convex mirrors, large is typically greater than 0.5 meter. While a size definition is simple, it may be less than universal. A more nuanced definition might be that a large part is any component which cannot be easily tested in a standard laboratory environment, on a standard vibration isolated table using standard laboratory infrastructure. A micro-switch or a precision lens might be easily measured to nanometer levels under a microscope in a lab, but a power turbine spline or a larger telescope mirror will not fit under that microscope and may not even fit on the table.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

State Event Models for the Formal Analysis of Human-Machine Interactions

The work described in this paper was motivated by our experience with applying a framework for formal analysis of human-machine interactions (HMI) to a realistic model of an autopilot. The framework is built around a formally defined conformance relation called "fullcontrol" between an actual system and the mental model according to which the system is operated. Systems are well-designed if they can be described by relatively simple, full-control, mental models for their human operators. For this reason, our framework supports automated generation of minimal full-control mental models for HMI systems, where both the system and the mental models are described as labelled transition systems (LTS). The autopilot that we analysed has been developed in the NASA Ames HMI prototyping tool ADEPT. In this paper, we describe how we extended the models that our HMI analysis framework handles to allow adequate representation of ADEPT models. We then provide a property-preserving reduction from these extended models to LTSs, to enable application of our LTS-based formal analysis algorithms. Finally, we briefly discuss the analyses we were able to perform on the autopilot model with our extended framework.

State-event Models↗

ES2Vec: Earth Science Metadata Suggestions and Analogical Reasoning

As the volume of text-based Earth science research grows, it is increasingly possible to discover latent relationships in the literature. However, traditional methodologies are restricted by limited computational capabilities and intractable problem spaces. Advancements in natural language processing (NLP) have allowed us to use an extensive Earth science corpus to create a domain-specific word vector model, Es2Vec, which we have used to surface latent relationships between Earth science concepts and generate improved keyword tags. Earth science metadata keyword assignment is a challenging problem. Dataset curators select appropriate keywords from the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) set of keywords. The keywords an are integral part of the search and discovery of these datasets. Hence, the selection of keywords is crucial to increasing the discoverability of datasets. Utilizing machine learning techniques, we provide users with automated keyword suggestions to complement manual selection. We trained a machine learning model that leverages the semantic embedding ability of Word2Vec models to process abstracts and suggest relevant keywords. A user interface tool we built to assist data curators in the assignment of such keywords is also described.

word vectors↗

Cluster-Based Flight Trajectory Outlier Detection

Given a set of flight trajectories, can we classify the trajectories that do not follow a normal path? By identifying abnormal trajectories, further analysis can be done to determine the reasoning for these actions. Addressing these scenarios can bring possible solutions for holding and rerouting problems when its time to incorporate UAM in the airspace.

Machine Learning↗

Proceedings of the Workshop on Space Telerobotics, volume 1

These proceedings report the results of a workshop on space telerobotics, which was held at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, January 20-22, 1987. Sponsored by the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST), the Workshop reflected NASA's interest in developing new telerobotics technology for automating the space systems planned for the 1990s and beyond. The workshop provided a window into NASA telerobotics research, allowing leading researchers in telerobotics to exchange ideas on manipulation, control, system architectures, artificial intelligence, and machine sensing. One of the objectives was to identify important unsolved problems of current interest. The workshop consisted of surveys, tutorials, and contributed papers of both theoretical and practical interest. Several sessions were held on the themes of sensing and perception, control execution, operator interface, planning and reasoning, and system architecture.

Rodriguez, G.↗

A machine independent expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies, the EnviroNET expert system, was developed. Expert systems provide an effective method for storing knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms which allow approximate reasoning and inference, and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defines. The EviroNET expert system knowledge base currently contains over two hundred rules, and links to databases which include past environmental data, satellite data, and previous known anomalies. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose.

Rolincik, Mark J.↗

An expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool was designed for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies using an expert system. Expert systems provide an effective method for saving knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms, which allow approximate reasoning and inference and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defined. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred (200) rules and provides links to historical and environmental databases. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information and allows the user to input partial information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The modularity of the expert system allows for easy updates and modifications. It not only provides scientists with needed risk analysis and confidence not found in algorithmic programs, but is also an effective learning tool, and the window implementation makes it very easy to use. The system currently runs on a Micro VAX II at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The inference engine used is NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS).

Rolincik, Mark↗

Brush Seal Arrangement for the RS-68 Turbopump Set

The nature of the RS-68 turbopumps requires that the hydrogen seals separating the pump from the turbine must have extremely low levels of leakage and be contained in small packages. Conventional seal technologies are not able to reasonably satisfy such design requirements. A review of experimental measurements and analysis publications suggests that brush seals are well suited for the design requirements. Brush seals are shown to have less leakage than conventional labyrinth and damper seals and have no adverse effects on the rotordynamics of the machine. The bulk-flow analysis presented by Hendricks et al. is used as a guideline to create a spreadsheet that provides mass flow through the seal and heat generated by the rubbing contact of the bristles on the shaft. The analysis is anchored to published data for LN2 and LH2 leakage tests. Finally, the analysis is used to design seals for both applications. It is observed that the most important analysis parameter is the thickness of the bristle pack and its relationship to seal clearance, lay angle and pressure drop.

Nunez, D.↗

M.I.T. Stirling-cycle heat transfer apparatus

The design and construction of a two-cylinder apparatus to measure heat transfer under conditions of oscillating pressure and oscillating flow such as found in Stirling-cycle machines are described. The apparatus consists of two large single-stage air compressors joined by a rigid drive shaft between the two crack shafts, and is powered by a 25-hp variable speed DC motor. The apparatus is capable of measuring heat transfer while velocity and pressure change over the range of dimensionless parameters normally found in Stirling cycle machines. It allows each parameter to be varied independently and easily. Instrumentation for the apparatus is adequate for measurement of pressure, time, gas and wall temperature, wall heat flux, and gas velocity. It yields preliminary data which show that the apparatus and data acquisition are operating satisfactorily and produce reasonable results.

Smith, Joseph L., Jr.↗

About an Element of Human Greatness

One of the things Dr. von Braun instinctively knew was that it was as nearly important to explain why we should go into space as to build the machines to take us there. He wrote books and magazine articles, spoke to everyone he could formally and informally, and spent his life to his dying day seeking to educate everyone on the importance of and need for spaceflight. Why should we go? I think there are actually two principle reasons: 1) Because the solar system is filled with cheap, clean energy, and we need to go get it, and, 2) this one may well be even more important, because we need a purpose for ourselves and our country. I think we need an eternal frontier to push up against, our purpose to conquer and settle it. The nice thing about doing that is the solar system is a very rich place, filled with not only mineral wealth but energy, a nearly inexhaustible supply. And if there s one thing this country and this planet desperately needs and is willing to pay for now and forever is energy. The solar system is where it is. We've got to go after it. I believe, then, that Americans have both a self-interest and a patriotic duty to convince ourselves it is time to take another giant step into space. The way to do that is to do what Dr. von Braun did, cut metal and start flying. Success engenders success. Dr. von Braun s grand dream need never die. NASA can spark a twenty-first-century revolution in transportation and energy that could fundamentally change the way we fly through space, power the world, even care for the sick if we do it right. All those things require cheap and clean energy. It exists in the solar system in a variety of forms. Solar energy is the most obvious form, but there are others, including helium-3, which may be the perfect fuel for fusion reactors, and also just happens to cover the Moon. I believe we must go after it. We just need to believe in ourselves and our purpose. I call on all of you here today to join together, get things moving again, and get serious about conquering space. If we do, we'll assure the country s prosperity, and the world s survival, too, for centuries. Along the way, maybe we ll finally understand why my old preacher thought St. Peter s comment about looking for new heavens was so important. According to His promise, it s a big challenge, a huge responsibility, to try to fulfill such a promise and prophecy.

Hickam, Homer↗