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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Effects of physical aging on long-term behavior of composites

The HSCT plane, envisioned to have a lifetime of over 60,000 flight hours and to travel at speeds in excess of Mach 2, is the source of intensive study at NASA. In particular, polymer matrix composites are being strongly considered for use in primary and secondary structures due to their high strength to weight ratio and the options of property tailoring. However, an added difficulty in the use of polymer based materials is that their properties change significantly over time, especially at the elevated temperatures that will be experienced during flight, and prediction of properties based on irregular thermal and mechanical loading is extremely difficult. This study focused on one aspect of long-term polymer composite behavior: physical aging. When a polymer is cooled to below its glass transition temperature, the material is not in thermodynamic equilibrium and the free volume and enthalpy evolve over time to approach their equilibrium values. During this time, the mechanical properties change significantly and this change is termed physical aging. This work begins with a review of the concepts of physical aging on a pure polymer system. The effective time theory, which can be used to predict long term behavior based on short term data, is mathematically formalized. The effects of aging to equilibrium are proven and discussed. The theory developed for polymers is then applied first to a unidirectional composite, then to a general laminate. Comparison to experimental data is excellent. It is shown that the effects of aging on the long-term properties of composites can be counter-intuitive, stressing the importance of the development and use of a predictive theory to analyze structures.

Brinson, L. Catherine↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Insights into Long-Term Global Precipitation from IMERG and GPCP

Multiple satellite-based datasets provide estimates of the long-term record of global precipitation. Each necessarily includes both the real atmospheric behavior and a collection of artifacts driven by the input data sources and design choices in the retrievals and dataset construction. For this presentation, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s U.S. Science Team are designed as a modern High-Resolution Precipitation Product (HRPP), while the Global Precipitation Climatology Project’s (GPCP) products are designed as a modern Climate Data Record (CDR). Although they share some common input data sources, the computational process for each is rather different. Comparing the precipitation estimates from each algorithm gives us insights into likely artifacts and the natural variations that are common to both. The goal of an HRPP is to give the best estimate of precipitation at each time step in the dataset, generally meaning that “all possible available” data are used. In contrast, the CDR is intended to provide a precipitation record that has relatively homogeneous statistics, necessary for climate analysis. Each analysis strives for both goals, of course, but this means that the HRPP uses the disparate collection of satellites whose statistics don’t quite match the ideal record, while the CDR is computed from fewer satellites that provide a relatively homogeneous set of precipitation statistics. This presentation employs the current versions of the IMERG and GPCP products, V07B and V3.2, respectively. A variety of analyses have demonstrated that IMERG has more artifacts, as expected, which tend to result from changes in the source of intercalibration for the various input satellites, namely the Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm using TMI and PR during the TRMM era and using GMI and DPR-Ku during the GPM era. As well, a shift occurs when the altitudes of the TRMM and GPM satellites change as a result of orbit boosts. For the most part the mean precipitation shows good continuity across these boundaries, but there are noticeable changes in the respective histograms. The latter has taken on more importance in recent years due to increased scrutiny on extremes which implicitly focus on the upper end of the precipitation histograms. The GPCP product is more homogeneous, with only one major change in calibrator, transitioning from the SSMI series of satellites to the SSMIS series of satellites in 2009. The GPCP analysis does a good job of minimizing artifacts in the means at this boundary, while the histograms show a smaller, but still noticeable shift in the histograms, a result that is similar to data boundaries in IMERG. The GPCP Daily, which is a month-by-month rescaling of the daily accumulated IMERG Final product, shows more consistency than the equivalent daily IMERG, but inherits the histogram shifts from IMERG. Given this overlay of artifacts, there is enough consistency between the products to illustrate some important long-term variations, including interannual variations, not all of which are easily attributable to ENSO events, and trends that are large regionally, but comparatively small when averaged across the globe.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Long-Term Storage Stability and Operational Efficiency of Rapid Cycle Amine Adsorbents

With the recent incorporation of Mars Extravehicular Activity (EVA) into the 2025 NASA roadmap, Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) technology advancement within the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) applies to both the upcoming Lunar Artemis missions and future human exploration of Mars. The incorporation of commercial spacesuit vendors to service NASA’s crewed-space programs since 2021 has increased the demand for regenerable, RCA-based carbon dioxide (CO2) and humidity control adsorbents. The regenerable RCA subunit is the most advanced, long-term solution for CO2 removal and humidity control, enabling both lunar and Martian EVAs. The adsorbent selected for use within the RCA unit must exhibit sufficient storage stability and operational efficiency for prolonged missions. As XploSafe worked to simultaneously develop both a recirculating sub-atmospheric test rig and adsorbents for the RCA system within the xEMU, several novel adsorbents were evaluated for long-term storage stability in support of future extended-duration missions. The chosen materials were periodically evaluated by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, thermal desorption-coupled with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (TD-GC/MS), and CO2 adsorption to assess long-term storage efficacy across various environmental storage conditions. NMR spectroscopy was utilized by extracting the active CO2 adsorbing chemical from the solid support with deuterated solvent and comparing the spectra over time for degradation and change. The solid adsorbents were also analyzed via TD-GC/MS to reveal any potential off-gassing chemicals over time. Additionally, XploSafe’s breakthrough test rig was utilized to dose the solid adsorbents with a 585 BTU/h metabolic rate flow-equivalent CO2 stream and monitored for 0–99% CO2 breakthrough. The performance metrics from the breakthrough analysis were compared over the storage study duration for CO2 removal and humidity control. Xplo-SA9T was evaluated for 24 months, whereas two additional adsorbent variants, MMPA-Sorbent and LPEI-Sorbent, were each evaluated for 12 months.

John R Tidwell↗
NASA NTRS1987

Space environmental considerations for a long-term cryogenic storage vessel

Information is given on the kind of protection that is needed against impact and perforation of a long-term cryogenic storage vessel in space by meteoroids and space debris. The long-term effects of the space environment on thermal control surfaces and coatings, and the question of whether the insulation and thermal control surfaces should be encased in a vacuum jacket shell are discussed.

Nakanishi, Shigeo↗
NASA NTRS1996

Long-term archiving and data access: modelling and standardization

This paper reports on the multiple difficulties inherent in the long-term archiving of digital data, and in particular on the different possible causes of definitive data loss. It defines the basic principles which must be respected when creating long-term archives. Such principles concern both the archival systems and the data. The archival systems should have two primary qualities: independence of architecture with respect to technological evolution, and generic-ness, i.e., the capability of ensuring identical service for heterogeneous data. These characteristics are implicit in the Reference Model for Archival Services, currently being designed within an ISO-CCSDS framework. A system prototype has been developed at the French Space Agency (CNES) in conformance with these principles, and its main characteristics will be discussed in this paper. Moreover, the data archived should be capable of abstract representation regardless of the technology used, and should, to the extent that it is possible, be organized, structured and described with the help of existing standards. The immediate advantage of standardization is illustrated by several concrete examples. Both the positive facets and the limitations of this approach are analyzed. The advantages of developing an object-oriented data model within this contxt are then examined.

Hoc, Claude↗
NASA NTRS1998

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling heat exchange characteristics of long term space operations: Role of skin wettedness and exercise

The problems of heat exchange during rest and exercise during long term space operations are covered in this report. Particular attention is given to the modeling and description of the consequences of requirement to exercise in a zero-g atmosphere during Space Shuttle flights, especially long term ones. In space environments, there exists no free convection therefore only forced convection occurring by movement, such as pedalling on a cycle ergometer, augments required heat dissipation necessary to regulate body temperature. The requirement to exercise at discrete periods of the day is good practice in order to resist the deleterious consequences of zero-gravity problems and improve distribution of body fluids. However, during exercise (ca. 180 to 250W), in zero-g environments, the mass of eccrine sweating rests as sheets on the skin surface and the sweat cannot evaporate readily. The use of exercise suits with fabrics that have hydrophobic or outwicking properties somewhat distributes the mass of sweat to a larger surface from which to evaporate. However, with no free convection, increased skin wettedness throughout the body surface induces increasing thermal discomfort, particularly during continuous exercise. This report presents several alternatives to aid in this problem: use of intermittent exercise, methods to quantify local skin wettedness, and introduction of a new effective temperature that integrates thermal stress and heat exchange avenues in a zero-g atmosphere.

Gonzalez, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Related Studies in Long Term Lithium Battery Stability

The continuing growth of the use of lithium electrochemical systems in a wide variety of both military and industrial applications is primarily a result of the significant benefits associated with the technology such as high energy density, wide temperature operation and long term stability. The stability or long term storage capability of a battery is a function of several factors, each important to the overall storage life and, therefore, each potentially a problem area if not addressed during the design, development and evaluation phases of the product cycle. Design (e.g., reserve vs active), inherent material thermal stability, material compatibility and self-discharge characteristics are examples of factors key to the storability of a power source.

Horning, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Determining the amount of physical activity needed for long-term weight control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate prospectively the influence of habitual physical activity on body weight of men and women and to develop a model that defines the role of physical activity on longitudinal weight change. DESIGN AND SETTING: Occupational cohort study conducted for a mean of 5.5 y. SUBJECTS: A total of 496 (341 male and 155 female) NASA/Johnson Space Center employees who completed the 3 month education component of the employee health-related fitness program and remained involved for a minimum of 2 y. MEASUREMENTS: Body weights were measured at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2), and habitual physical activity was obtained from the mean of multiple ratings of the 11-point (0-10) NASA Activity Scale (NAS) recorded quarterly between T1 and T2. Other measures included age, gender, VO(2 max) obtained from maximal treadmill testing, body mass index (BMI), and body fat percentage. RESULTS: Multiple regression demonstrated that mean NAS, T1 weight, aging and gender all influence long-term T2 weight. T1 age was significant for the men only. Independently, each increase in mean NAS significantly (P<0.01) reduced T2 weight in men (b=-0.91 kg; 95% CI:-1.4 to-0.42 kg) and women (b=-2.14 kg; 95% CI:-2.93 to-1.35 kg). Mean NAS had a greater effect on T2 weight as T1 weight increased, and the relationship was dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Habitual physical activity is a significant source of long-term weight change. The use of self-reported activity level is helpful in predicting long-term weight changes and may be used by health care professionals when counseling patients about the value of physical activity for weight control.

Exercise↗
NASA NTRS1994

Residents' reactions to long-term sonic boom exposure: Preliminary results

This presentation is about residents' reactions to sonic booms in a long-term sonic boom exposure environment. Although two phases of the data collection have been completed, the analysis of the data has only begun. The results are thus preliminary. The list of four authors reflects the complex multi-disciplinary character of any field study such as this one. Carey Moulton is responsible for Wyle Laboratories' acoustical data collection effort. Robert Baumgartner and Jeff Thomas of HBRS, a social science research firm, are responsible for social survey field work and data processing. The study is supported by the NASA Langley Research Center. The study has several objectives. The preliminary data addresses two of the primary objectives. The first objective is to describe the reactions to sonic booms of people who are living where sonic booms are a routine, recurring feature of the acoustical environment. The second objective is to compare these residents' reactions to the reactions of residents who hear conventional aircraft noise around airports. Here is an overview of the presentation. This study will first be placed in the context of previous community survey research on sonic booms. Next the noise measurement program will be briefly described and part of a social survey interview will be presented. Finally data will be presented on the residents' reactions and these reactions will be compared with reactions to conventional aircraft. Twelve community studies of residents' reactions to sonic booms were conducted in the United States and Europe in the 1960's and early 1970's. None of the 12 studies combined three essential ingredients that are found in the present study. Residents' long-term responses are related to a measured noise environment. Sonic booms are a permanent feature of the residential environment. The respondents' do not live on a military base. The present study is important because it provides the first dose/response relationship for sonic booms that could be expected to apply to residents in civilian residential areas.

Fields, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A New Paradigm for Gamma Ray Bursts: Long Term Accretion Rate Modulation by an External Accretion Disk

We present a new way of looking at the very long term evolution of GRBs in which the disk of material surrounding the putative black hole powering the GRB jet modulates the mass flow, and hence the efficacy of the process that extracts rotational energy from the black hole and inner accretion disk. The pre-Swift paradigm of achromatic, shallow-to-steep "breaks" in the long term GRB light curves has not been borne out by detailed Swift data amassed in the past several years. We argue that, given the initial existence of a fall-back disk near the progenitor, an unavoidable consequence will be the formation of an "external disk" whose outer edge continually moves to larger radii due to angular momentum transport and lack of a confining torque. The mass reservoir at large radii moves outward with time and gives a natural power law decay to the GRB light curves. In this model, the different canonical power law decay segments in the GRB identified by Zhang et al. and Nousek et al. represent different physical states of the accretion disk. We identify a physical disk state with each power law segment.

Cannizzo, John↗
NASA NTRS2013

Automated Long - Term Scheduling for the SOFIA Airborne Observatory

The NASA Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is a joint US/German project to develop and operate a gyro-stabilized 2.5-meter telescope in a Boeing 747SP. SOFIA's first science observations were made in December 2010. During 2011, SOFIA accomplished 30 flights in the "Early Science" program as well as a deployment to Germany. The new observing period, known as Cycle 1, is scheduled to begin in 2012. It includes 46 science flights grouped in four multi-week observing campaigns spread through a 13-month span. Automation of the flight scheduling process offers a major challenge to the SOFIA mission operations. First because it is needed to mitigate its relatively high cost per unit observing time compared to space-borne missions. Second because automated scheduling techniques available for ground-based and space-based telescopes are inappropriate for an airborne observatory. Although serious attempts have been made in the past to solve part of the problem, until recently mission operations staff was still manually scheduling flights. We present in this paper a new automated solution for generating SOFIA long-term schedules that will be used in operations from the Cycle 1 observing period. We describe the constraints that should be satisfied to solve the SOFIA scheduling problem in the context of real operations. We establish key formulas required to efficiently calculate the aircraft course over ground when evaluating flight schedules. We describe the foundations of the SOFIA long-term scheduler, the constraint representation, and the random search based algorithm that generates observation and instrument schedules. Finally, we report on how the new long-term scheduler has been used in operations to date.

Civeit, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. Evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. Simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5-7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year-1. This large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Groundwater storage↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACe) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5–7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year−1. this large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Bailing Li↗
NASA NTRS2024

Paint and Oil Locker SWMU 067 Southern Treatment Area Air Sparge System Year 2 Performance Monitoring and Paint and Oil Locker Northern Area (SWMU 067) and Supply Warehouse #3, SWMU 088 Long-Term Monitoring Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Year 2 Air Sparge (AS) System Performance Monitoring (PM) Report for Paint and Oil Locker (POL) Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 067 Southern Treatment Area and Long- Term Monitoring (LTM) Report for POL Northern Area (SWMU 067) and Supply Warehouse #3 (SW3) SWMU 088 documents ongoing remedial efforts at the POL and SW3 sites at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The overall goal for these sites is to reduce concentrations of groundwater contaminants of concern (COCs), specifically trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), trans-1,2-dichloroethene (tDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC), to below the State of Florida Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs). Remediation and reporting of POL and SW3 have been streamlined over the years due to the proximity of the two sites. The scope for these sites currently includes two main components: (1) LTM at SW3 and the POL Northern Area, where an AS system began operation in May 2009 (with expansion in December 2012) and June 2013, respectively, and subsequently turned off for both sites in March 2018 (NASA, 2019a); and (2) Active AS operations and PM in the POL Southern Treatment Area where an AS system was installed and began operation in 2021. The timeframe for activities covered under this report is from September 2022 to July 2023. Based on Year 2 system operation and PM results, the AS system at POL operated as designed and successfully met the performance objective of reducing VOCs to concentrations that support transition of the site from active remediation to long-term monitoring. The results from the samples collected from performance monitoring wells within the AS system ROI showed a significant decrease in COC concentrations since the baseline sampling event conducted in April 2020. Based on the Year 2 OM&M and monitoring results obtained from the POL Southern Treatment Area, the IM objective to reduce concentrations to below the LTM transition target concentrations for TCE, cDCE, tDCE, and VC has been achieved. LTM sampling events at SW3 were conducted in October 2022 and July 2023. LTM sampling was conducted at the POL Northern Area in October 2022, December 2022, March 2023, and July 2023. Analytical results from October 2022 and July 2023 generally indicate that concentrations of COCs have been stable or decreasing compared to the previous year. TCE remains greater than the NADC in one monitoring well (POL-MW0034S) and greater than the GCTL in one monitoring well (POL-MW0009S). Concentrations of cDCE were greater than the GCTL in one monitoring well (POL-MW0026S), and tDCE was non-detect or less than the GCTL in all monitoring wells sampled. VC was greater than the GCTL in four monitoring wells (MW0024, MW0025, MW0027, and MW0028) at SW3 and one monitoring well (MW0026S) at the POL Northern Area.

remediation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Long-Term Health (LTH) Outcomes in Astronauts

NASA has linked potential Long-Term Health (LTH) risks of astronauts to their spaceflight experience, including the effects of space radiation, microgravity, and stressors such as isolation, sleep deprivation, and stress. Therefore, assessing the LTH outcomes for astronauts exposed to these hazards becomes a critical investigation in ensuring any deleterious effects are minimal. Prior research conducted into LTH outcomes of astronauts has not revealed increases in non-accidental mortality rates when compared to the U.S. general population, analog healthy cohorts, and professional athletes. One study did report an increased incidence of non-fatal cardiovascular disease events (Hazard Ratio=2.41, 95% Confidence Interval 1.26 to 4.63). Additional evidence indicates that astronauts may have increases in incidences of melanoma, prostate, and hematologic cancers, though the former is consistent with rates observed among aircraft pilots and the latter two are likely caused by detection bias due to increased screening on former astronauts.

long term health↗
NASA NTRS2007

Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are discussed in the context of the observed low summer temperatures reproduced by the model, to demonstrate that the above interannual and long-term variations could contribute significantly to the climatology of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) investigated by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Long-term Evolution of Upper Stratospheric Ozone at Selected Stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45 S), reaching 8%/decade, compared to only about 6%/decade at Table Mountain (35 N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux (approximately equal to 45 N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern(approximately equal to 47 N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20 N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.

Steinbrecht, W.↗