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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Kostoff, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interface Evolutionand Long-Term Performance of NegativeCarbon Fiber Structural Electrodes

Abstract Laminated structural batteries present a transformative solution to reducing weight constraints in electric vehicles. These structural batteries are based on a multifunctional material that incorporates an energy storage function within a carbon fiber-reinforced polymer. Despite the potential of this technology, the intricate morphology of fiber–matrix or electrode–electrolyte interfaces and the impact of long-term cycling at low current rates (C-rates) on these interfaces remain insufficiently understood. This study addresses these critical knowledge gaps by examining the influence of matrix composition on the long-term electrochemical performance of structural battery electrodes and exploring advanced techniques to investigate carbon fiber–matrix interfaces. Localized imaging and X-ray scattering techniques were used to characterize morphological changes at the electrode–electrolyte interfaces by analyzing negative structural electrodes. The findings revealed that the matrix composition influences long-term electrochemical behavior and fiber–matrix interface formation. While the intrinsic properties of carbon fibers largely remain unaffected by long-term cycling, cycling promotes debonding at fiber–matrix interfaces. Nonetheless, residual regions of adhesion persist, underscoring the potential for preserving multifunctionality even under prolonged cycling conditions. These insights advance the understanding of interface dynamics, which is critical for optimizing structural battery technologies.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "A Microfluidic Spore Chamber for Long-Term Imaging of Single-Spore Hyphal Development"

Understanding the life cycle of fungal spores is essential for elucidating their roles in pathogenesis, dispersal, and survival. However, studying spore development under controlled, spatially defined conditions remains challenging. Here, we present the Spore Chamber, a custom-built microfluidic platform engineered for parallel trapping and long-term imaging of individual spores under defined media conditions, enabling real-time visualization of hyphal development. Using Aspergillus fumigatus as a model organism, we demonstrate that sparse trapping of individual spores within size-matched trap geometries enables long-term time-lapse imaging of key developmental stages, including germination, polarized hyphal elongation, branching, and conidiophore formation. To assess the device’s capacity to resolve morphogenetic responses to exogenous signals, we introduced lipochitooligosaccharides (LCOs) and short-chain chitooligosaccharides (COs). Rhizobium-derived, non-sulfated LCO (nsLCO) mixtures induced enhanced secondary branching (hyperbranching), a response not previously reported in A. fumigatus under these signal conditions, to our knowledge, whereas sulfated LCOs and CO4 did not significantly alter branching patterns. In addition, long-term confinement and imaging revealed rare developmental morphologies previously described primarily in mutant strains, including split conidiophore formation, elongated phialides, microcyclic conidiation, and chlamydospore development. Together, these results establish the Spore Chamber as a targeted microfluidic platform for single-spore phenotyping and long-term developmental analysis, with applications in fungal biology, chemical signaling studies, and host–microbe interaction research. Videos of the observed phenomena are included in this data set.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A microfluidic spore chamber for long-term imaging of single-spore hyphal development.

Understanding the life cycle of fungal spores is essential for elucidating their roles in pathogenesis, dispersal, and survival. However, studying spore development under controlled, spatially defined conditions remains challenging. Here, we present the Spore Chamber, a custom-built microfluidic platform engineered for parallel trapping and long-term imaging of individual spores under defined media conditions, enabling real-time visualization of hyphal development. Using Aspergillus fumigatus as a model organism, we demonstrate that sparse trapping of individual spores within size-matched trap geometries enables long-term time-lapse imaging of key developmental stages, including germination, polarized hyphal elongation, branching, and conidiophore formation. To assess the device's capacity to resolve morphogenetic responses to exogenous signals, we introduced lipochitooligosaccharides (LCOs) and short-chain chitooligosaccharides (COs). Rhizobium-derived, non-sulfated LCO (nsLCO) mixtures induced enhanced secondary branching (hyperbranching), a response not previously reported in A. fumigatus under these signal conditions, to our knowledge, whereas sulfated LCOs and CO4 did not significantly alter branching patterns. In addition, long-term confinement and imaging revealed rare developmental morphologies previously described primarily in mutant strains, including split conidiophore formation, elongated phialides, and stress-associated phenomena such as microcyclic conidiation, and chlamydospore development. Together, these results establish the Spore Chamber as a targeted microfluidic platform for single-spore phenotyping and long-term developmental analysis, with applications in fungal biology, chemical signaling studies, and host–microbe interaction research.

Antifungal screening↗
NASA NTRS1993

Long-term microparticle flux variability indicated by comparison of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) timed impacts for LDEF's first year in orbit with impact data for the entire 5.77-year orbital lifetime

The electronic sensors of the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) recorded precise impact times and approximate directions for submicron to approximately 100 micron size particles on all six primary sides of the spacecraft for the first 346 days of the LDEF orbital mission. Previously-reported analyses of the timed impact data have established their spatio-temporal features, including the demonstration that a preponderance of the particles in this regime are orbital debris and that a large fraction of the debris particles are encountered in megameter-size clouds. Short-term fluxes within such clouds can rise several orders of magnitude above the long-term average. These unexpectedly large short-term variations in debris flux raise the question of how representative an indication of the multi-year average flux is given by the nearly one year of timed data. One of the goals of the IDE was to conduct an optical survey of impact sites on detectors that remained active during the entire LDEF mission, to obtain full-mission fluxes. We present here the comparisons and contrasts among the new IDE optical survey impact data, the IDE first-year timed impact data, and impact data from other LDEF micrometeoroid and debris experiments. The following observations are reported: (1) the 5.77 year long-term integrated microparticle impact fluxes recorded by IDE detectors matched the integrated impact fluxes measured by other LDEF investigators for the same period; (2) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied by factors from 0.5 to 8.3 for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on rows 3 (trailing edge, or West), 6 (South side), 12 (North side), and the Earth and Space ends; and (3) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied less than 3 percent for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on row 9 (leading edge, or East). These results give further evidence of the accuracy and internal consistency of the recorded IDE impact data. This leads to the further conclusion that the utility of long-term ratios for impacts on various sides of a stabilized satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) is extremely limited. These observations and their consequences highlight the need for continuous, real time monitoring of the dynamic microparticle environment in LEO.

Simon, Charles G.↗
NASA NTRS1971

27-day recurrence and long term modulation of cosmic ray intensity.

Previous work by Balasubrahmanyan and Venkatesan (1970) on the general problem of the solar activity relationship with the 27-day recurrence and long term modulation of cosmic ray intensity, and Lockwood's (1971) comments thereon are discussed in the light of some further work. A possible explanation proposed for the absence of any time lag in both short and long term cosmic ray intensity changes views the long term variation as a result of a superposition of a number of short term decreases.

Balasubrahmanyan, V. K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observations on Cost Modeling and Performance Measurement of Long Term Archives

This paper describes a prototype suite of Excel-based tools that could be used for estimating lifecycle costs for newly planned or modified long-term archival facilities. These tools may also prove valuable for monitoring the long-term performance of such facilities once operational. Cost estimation is by analogy, using statistical curve-fitting techniques across a database of comparable data activities. The database currently includes 29 operational data centers ranging from small (2 FTEs) to large (66 FTEs), and is readily expandable to include additional activities specifically involving data preservation and added value. Each comparable data center is described in terms of its staffing, throughput workload, archival and distribution requirements, levels of user service, overall complexity, degree of automation, and other data, comprising 94 distinct descriptors in all. The descriptors were developed by normalizing heterogeneous data from the various centers and mapping them into an Excel framework consistent with the OAIS reference model. A user-friendly tool is provided for generating input to and updating the comparables database. This tool can also be used to benchmark the performance (in terms of cost versus throughput) of an operational data center, and to update the staffing, cost and workload data on a periodic basis. The comparables database could thus provide a history of staffing and throughput over time, as a means of performance monitoring and providing feedback for continuous improvement. Ancillary tools are also provided for performing "what-if' cost exercises for planning purposes, and for graphical display of data and results. We provide a high-level description of the tools; present our experiences and observations on gathering the information and maintaining the database; and discuss how this tool set might be applied to long term archives.

Fontaine, Kathy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Innovative Strategies for Long-Term Monitoring of Complex Groundwater Plumes at DOE’s Legacy Sites (Workshop Report)

Most remaining Department of Energy (DOE) sites will require extended periods of institutional control, especially at complex groundwater sites where attenuation-based strategies have been implemented to facilitate closure. The current practice of monitoring—obtaining and analyzing contaminant concentration in groundwater samples at numerous wells—will account for a large portion of the projected life-cycle at these DOE sites unless a new approach is adopted. State-of-the-art technologies are being developed, including in situ sensors, geophysics, radiation mapping, numerical modeling and AI/ML. These technologies can optimize monitoring strategies in space and time, provide spatially extensive information at vulnerable regions and/or provide more continuous monitoring at lower cost. As part of DOE’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM’s) efforts to advance long-term monitoring systems, an in-person/virtual hybrid workshop was hosted by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) on January 24 and 25, 2023, in Augusta, Georgia. Because DOE-EM’s complex sites will eventually be transferred to DOE’s Office of Legacy Management (DOE-LM), representatives of DOE-LM were important participants in the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to identify challenges and opportunities for deploying advanced technologies for long-term monitoring at DOE sites. The key questions during the workshop were: 1) the regulatory acceptance of replacing a process that traditionally has used laboratory sampling and analysis of groundwater samples, and 2) the application of this strategy to the southwestern arid sites that include many of the remaining DOE-EM and DOE-LM complex groundwater plumes. Characteristics common to most arid sites present both limitations and opportunities for advanced technologies. DOE-EM has funded a National Laboratory team from SRNL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to establish the overarching framework of long-term monitoring by systematically combining advanced hardware and software technologies. This project is titled “Advanced Long-Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS)” and is sponsored by the DOE-EM Technology Development Program. The multi-laboratory team is currently developing and testing innovative monitoring strategies, including the use of in situ groundwater sensors, geophysics, drone/satellite-based remote sensing, reactive transport modeling, and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML). The project’s demonstration testbed is at the Savannah River Site (SRS) F-Area Seepage Basins, where a well-characterized complex groundwater plume composed of uranium and other radionuclides is in the latter stages of remediation. The workshop included more than 70 participants, presentations, a field visit to F-Area, breakout working groups, and large group discussion. Participants developed recommendations on five topics: in situ sensors, spatially integrative tools, challenges to regulatory acceptance, AI/ML strategies, and transitioning sites to DOE-LM.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated to last for up to five months past the largest events. However, the computed total column ozone and stratospheric temperature changes connected with the solar events were not found to be statistically significant. Thus, solar proton events do not likely contribute significantly to measured total column ozone fluctuations and stratospheric temperature changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil aggregate-mediated microbial responses to long-term warming

Soil microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a combination of growth and respiration, which may respond differently to climate change depending on physical protection of soil carbon (C) and its availability to microbes. In a mid-latitude hardwood forest in central Massachusetts, 27 years of soil warming (+5 °C) has resulted in C loss and altered soil organic matter (SOM) quality, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this work, we hypothesized that long-term warming reduces physical aggregate protection of SOM, microbial CUE, and its temperature sensitivity. Soil was separated into macroaggregate (250–2000 μm) and microaggregate (<250 μm) fractions, and CUE was measured with 18 O enriched water (H 2 18 O) in samples incubated at 15 and 25 °C for 24 h. We found that long-term warming reduced soil C and nitrogen concentrations and extracellular enzyme activity in macroaggregates, but did not affect physical protection of SOM. Long-term warming showed little effect on CUE or microbial biomass turnover time because it reduced both growth and respiration. However, CUE was less temperature sensitive in macroaggregates from the warmed compared to the control plots. Our findings suggest that microbial thermal responses to long-term warming occur mostly in soil compartments where SOM is less physically protected and thus more vulnerable to microbial degradation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Failure Analysis Study and Long-Term Reliability of Optical Assemblies with End-Face Damage

In June 2005, the NESC received a multi-faceted request to determine the long term reliability of fiber optic termini on the ISS that exhibited flaws not manufactured to best workmanship practices. There was a lack of data related to fiber optic workmanship as it affects the long term reliability of optical fiber assemblies in a harsh environment. A fiber optic defect analysis was requested which would find and/or create various types of chips, spalls, scratches, etc., that were identified by the ISS personnel. Once the defects and causes were identified the next step would be to perform long term reliability testing of similar assemblies with similar defects. The goal of the defect analysis would be for the defects to be observed and documented for deterioration of fiber optic performance. Though this report mostly discusses what has been determined as evidence of poor manufacturing processes, it also concludes the majority of the damage could have been avoided with a rigorous process in place.

Kichak, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seismic Assessment of a Long-Term Lunar Habitat

The establishment of secure earth-independent long-term lunar habitats has been envisioned by numerous government agencies and private companies. Recent advancements in assessing seismic hazards caused by shallow moonquakes have highlighted the importance of incorporating this phenomenon into the design of robust and resilient lunar structures. However, further research is required to explore lunar habitat design that considers seismic loads. This paper proposes assessing the structural response of a lunar habitat made of sulfur concrete covered with a regolith layer. The numerical model of the structure is subjected to gravitational, internal pressure and seismic loads. The seismic analysis of the structure is carried out using spectral and nonlinear time history methods. Conditional mean spectra for shallow moonquakes with return periods of 75, 475, 970 and 2475 years are used in the seismic analysis. The records used for the temporal analyses were ground motions that agree with a preliminary seismic hazard on the Moon. The results of temporal analyses reveal that shallow moonquakes with return periods greater than 475 years can lead to the loss of the global stability of the structure. Consequently, the findings imply that seismic loads have the potential to impose unacceptable demands on lunar structures constructed from in-situ materials like sulfur concrete. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate seismic considerations in the design process for developing resilient and long-term lunar habitats.

Lunar habitat↗
NASA NTRS2024

Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001(SWMU 01) 2023 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2023 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. Annual LTM of groundwater is being conducted at the site. Based on results from groundwater sampling activities performed during the 2019 through 2020 LTM reporting period and the 2020 and 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, it was determined that the LTM sampling plan was no longer meeting the goal of LTM because delineation was not verified and the installation of an air sparge (AS) system to treat the area of the High Concentration Plume was recommended. The AS System was installed in late 2022 and early 2023. System start-up activities were initiated in April 2023. Following system startup, several site wells required retrofitting to equip wellheads for withstanding the air pressure released from air sparge wells during system operation. Some site wells also required repair or abandonment, and replacement. Survey of location and top-of-casing of newly installed monitoring wells was combined with scheduled AS system survey activities and was completed in January 2024. The activities presented in this report include the February and April 2023 LTM monitoring well installations; March and April 2023 LTM and performance monitoring well water level gauging and sampling; November 2023 LTM well retrofits and repairs; a summary of December 2023 LTM well abandonments and installations (complete site well abandonment activities will be presented under a separate cover); and January 2024 LTM well survey. During the March and April 2023 sampling events, the low-flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a select list of volatile organic compounds. In March 2023, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west was generally consistent with historical observations at the site. The Low Concentration Plume (LCP) continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond the terminal depth of the current monitoring well network. Data, inclusive of the 2023 LTM and baseline performance monitoring sampling events, indicate that the LCP encompasses an estimated 19.5 acres, compared to the 2021 LCP footprint, inclusive of the 2020 and 2021 DPT sampling events of 20.7 acres. The vertical extent of VOCs was historically delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet below land surface (bls). The results from the three vertical extent monitoring wells screened below 48 feet bls that were sampled during the 2023 LTM indicate that groundwater vinyl chloride concentrations in these three wells are greater than the GCTL. As presented in the 2021 Long-Term Monitoring Report (NASA 2022), the KSCRT agreed to delay deeper investigations in this area to prevent the creation of additional pathways for vertical migration. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed in 2023, recommendations are to perform the next annual LTM sampling event, scheduled for April 2024 and to conduct quarterly performance monitoring of the AS System. The current selection of monitoring wells in the recommended 2024 LTM plan will provide an adequate data set for monitoring groundwater plume behavior; however, the LTM monitoring well network will be evaluated and refined based on 2024 LTM and year one performance monitoring data.

King Linnea↗