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NASA NTRS1991

A probabilistic design analysis approach for launch systems

This paper discusses a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. In addition to providing a systematic way for evaluating reliability, this approach provides a tool for comparing reliabilities of competing designs and identifies weak spots through sensitivity analysis. An overview of the probabilistic design approach is included to emphasize the importance of the approach in engineering design. An actual example is included to demonstrate that these approaches have been used with success. Different methodologies for implementing PDA are also discussed. Finally, recommendations for using PDA are provided.

Safie, Fayssal↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of a GCM cirrus parameterization using satellite observations

This study applies a simple yet effective methodology to validate a general circulation model parameterization of cirrus ice water path. The methodology combines large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields from operational analyses with prescribed occurrence of cirrus clouds from satellite observations to simulate a global distribution of ice water path. The predicted cloud properties are then compared with the corresponding satellite measurements of visible optical depth and infrared cloud emissivity to evaluate the reliability of the parameterization. This methodology enables the validation to focus strictly on the water loading side of the parameterization by eliminating uncertainties involved in predicting the occurrence of cirrus internally within the parameterization. Overall the parameterization performs remarkably well in capturing the observed spatial patterns of cirrus optical properties. Spatial correlations between the observed and the predicted optical depths are typically greater than 0.7 for the tropics and northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The good spatial agreement largely stems from the strong dependence of the ice water path upon the temperature of the environment in which the clouds form. Poorer correlations (r approximately 0.3) are noted over the southern hemisphere midlatitudes, suggesting that additional processes not accounted for by the parameterization may be important there. Quantitative evaluation of the parameterization is hindered by the present uncertainty in the size distribution of cirrus ice particles. Consequently, it is difficult to determine if discrepancies between the observed and the predicted optical properties are attributable to errors in the parameterized ice water path or to geographic variations in effective radii.

Soden, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of the Contribution of the Atmosphere to Uncertainties in Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance: A Combined Modeling and Data Analysis Approach

Our research for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program has been focused on modeling and simulation studies as well as the development of atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on our original proposal and discussions at the SIMBIOS team meetings and workshops, the objectives of our research can be summarized as follows: (1) Use our radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to simulate the radiation field at arbitrary levels and in any desired direction in the atmosphere and ocean so as to provide a firm connection between the signal received by the satellite sensor and by a sensor looking down into the water column just above the surface and just below it; (2) Use the simulations to quantify the influence of atmospheric aerosols on the water-leaving radiance, and to quantify the error in the water-leaving radiance as a function of uncertainties in the aerosol optical properties, mass loading and vertical extent; (3) Use the model simulations in conjunction with validation measurements taken by other SIMBIOS investigators (for satellite overpasses) to assess our understanding of the radiative transfer process in the coupled atmosphere-ocean column, and to examine the extent to which the model provides a realistic prediction of simultaneously measured in situ water-leaving radiance and the radiance received by the satellite sensor; (4) Modify and improve an existing atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the work above, as needed by constructing new look-up tables that include scattering by ocean particles; and (5) Carry out approaches to developing an atmospheric correction algorithm for ocean color imagery with strongly absorbing aerosols.

Stamnes, Knut↗

NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Estimation of Critical Flaw Sizes in the Primary Structure Welds of the Ares I-X Launch Vehicle

The primary structure of the Ares I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS) launch vehicle is constructed of welded mild steel plates. There is some concern over the possibility of structural failure due to welding flaws. It was considered critical to quantify the impact of uncertainties in residual stress, material porosity, applied loads, and material and crack growth properties on the reliability of the welds during its pre-flight and flight. A criterion--an existing maximum size crack at the weld toe must be smaller than the maximum allowable flaw size--was established to estimate the reliability of the welds. A spectrum of maximum allowable flaw sizes was developed for different possible combinations of all of the above listed variables by performing probabilistic crack growth analyses using the ANSYS finite element analysis code in conjunction with the NASGRO crack growth code. Two alternative methods were used to account for residual stresses: (1) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 41 ksi and a limit was set on the net section flow stress during crack propagation. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if this limit was exceeded during four complete flight cycles, and (2) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 49.6 ksi (the parent material s yield strength) and the net section flow stress limit was ignored. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if catastrophic crack growth occurred during four complete flight cycles. Both surface-crack models and through-crack models were utilized to characterize cracks in the weld toe.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic structural analysis of space truss structures for nonuniform thermal environmental effects

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to quantify the range of uncertainties of vibration frequencies and truss free end vertical displacements due to nonuniform thermal loads, applied loads and moments (mechanical loads), and combination of both. The truss members are assumed to be made from (1) aluminum tubes or (2) high modulus graphite-fiber/intermediate modulus epoxy-matrix composite tubes. Cumulative distribution function results show that certain combination of thermal loads with mechanical loads reduce the probabilistic vibration frequencies and increase the magnitude of the truss free end vertical displacements for the aluminum truss. However, for the composite truss, the thermal effects on the probabilistic vibration frequencies are not as substantial as that for an aluminum truss. This can be attributed to the large differences in the values of coefficient of thermal expansion. Finally, the sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the structural, material and load variables (primative variables) are investigated. Results indicate that vibration frequencies and truss free end vertical displacements are sensitive to the uncertainties in spacial (geometry) variables as well as member modulus.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using High-Fidelity Analysis Methods and Experimental Results to Account for the Effects of Imperfections on the Buckling Response of Composite Shell Structures

The results of an experimental and analytical study of the effects of initial imperfections on the buckling response of unstiffened thin-walled compression-loaded graphite-epoxy cylindrical shells are presented. The analytical results include the effects of traditional and nontraditional initial imperfections and uncertainties in the values of selected shell parameters on the buckling loads of the shells. The nonlinear structural analysis results correlate very well with the experimental results. The high-fidelity nonlinear analysis procedure used to generate the analytical results can also be used to form the basis of a new shell design procedure that could reduce the traditional dependence on empirical results in the shell design process. KEYWORDS: high-fidelity nonlinear structural analysis, composite shells, shell stability, initial imperfections

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Role of Cloud Contamination, Aerosol Layer Height and Aerosol Model in the Assessment of the OMI Near-UV Retrievals Over the Ocean

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 388 nm over the ocean from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) two-channel near-UV algorithm (OMAERUV) have been compared with independent AOD measurements. The analysis was carried out over the open ocean (OMI and MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) AOD comparisons) and over coastal and island sites (OMI and AERONET, the AErosol RObotic NETwork). Additionally, a research version of the retrieval algorithm (using MODIS and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) information as constraints) was utilized to evaluate the sensitivity of the retrieval to different assumed aerosol properties. Overall, the comparison resulted in differences (OMI minus independent measurements) within the expected levels of uncertainty for the OMI AOD retrievals (0.1 for AOD less than 0.3, 30% for AOD greater than 0.3). Using examples from case studies with outliers, the reasons that led to the observed differences were examined with specific purpose to determine whether they are related to instrument limitations (i.e., pixel size, calibration) or algorithm assumptions (such as aerosol shape, aerosol height). The analysis confirms that OMAERUV does an adequate job at rejecting cloudy scenes within the instrument's capabilities. There is a residual cloud contamination in OMI pixels with quality flag 0 (the best conditions for aerosol retrieval according to the algorithm), resulting in a bias towards high AODs in OMAERUV. This bias is more pronounced at low concentrations of absorbing aerosols (AOD 388 nm approximately less than 0.5). For higher aerosol loadings, the bias remains within OMI's AOD uncertainties. In pixels where OMAERUV assigned a dust aerosol model, a fraction of them (less than 20 %) had retrieved AODs significantly lower than AERONET and MODIS AODs. In a case study, a detailed examination of the aerosol height from CALIOP and the AODs from MODIS, along with sensitivity tests, was carried out by varying the different assumed parameters in the retrieval (imaginary index of refraction, size distribution, aerosol height, particle shape). It was found that the spherical shape assumption for dust in the current retrieval is the main cause of the underestimate. In addition, it is demonstrated in an example how an incorrect assumption of the aerosol height can lead to an underestimate. Nevertheless, this is not as significant as the effect of particle shape. These findings will be incorporated in a future version of the retrieval algorithm.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Dispersed Vehicle Process for Space Launch System

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is part of NASA's deep space exploration plans that includes manned missions to Mars. Manufacturing uncertainties in design parameters are key considerations throughout SLS development as they have significant effects on focus parameters such as lift-off-thrust-to-weight, vehicle payload, maximum dynamic pressure, and compression loads. This presentation discusses how the SLS program captures these uncertainties by utilizing a 3 degree of freedom (DOF) process called Trajectory Dispersed (TD) analysis. This analysis biases nominal trajectories to identify extremes in the design parameters for various potential SLS configurations and missions. This process utilizes a Design of Experiments (DOE) and response surface methodologies (RSM) to statistically sample uncertainties, and develop resulting vehicles using a Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) process for targeting uncertainties bias. These vehicles represent various missions and configurations which are used as key inputs into a variety of analyses in the SLS design process, including 6 DOF dispersions, separation clearances, and engine out failure studies.

Statham, Tamara↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Airborne Sunphotometer and Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer Measurements During INTEX/ITCT 2004

During the period 12 July - 8 August 2004, the NASA Ames 14-channel Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (MTS-14) and Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer (SSFR) were operated aboard a Jetstream 31 (J31) aircraft and acquired measurements during nineteen science flights (approx. 53 flight hours) over the Gulf of Maine in support of the INTEX-NA (INtercontinental chemical Transport Experiment-North America) and ITCT (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation of anthropogenic pollution) field studies. In this paper, we will present results from analyses of those data sets. AATS-14 measures the direct solar beam transmission at fourteen discrete wavelengths (354-2138 nm), and provides instantaneous measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and water vapor column content, in addition to vertical profiles of aerosol extinction and water vapor density during suitable aircraft ascents and descents. SSFR consists of separate nadir and zenith viewing hemispheric FOV sensors that yield measurements of up- and downwelling solar irradiance at a spectral resolution of approx. 8-12 nm over the wavelength range 300-1700 nm. The objectives of the J31-based measurements during INTEX/ITCT were to provide AOD data for the evaluation of MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer) AOD retrievals, quantify sea surface spectral albedo (which can contribute the largest uncertainty to satellite aerosol retrievals for low aerosol loading), test closure (consistency) among suborbital results, test chemical-transport models using AOD profiles, and assess regional radiative forcing by combining satellite and suborbital results. Specific J31 flight patterns were designed to achieve these objectives, and they included a mixture of vertical profiles (spiral and ramped ascents and descents) and constant altitude horizontal transects at a variety of altitudes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Stirling Convertor Fasteners Reliability Quantification

Onboard Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) being developed for NASA s deep-space science and exploration missions require reliable operation for up to 14 years and beyond. Stirling power conversion is a candidate for use in an RPS because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced inventory of radioactive material. Structural fasteners are responsible to maintain structural integrity of the Stirling power convertor, which is critical to ensure reliable performance during the entire mission. Design of fasteners involve variables related to the fabrication, manufacturing, behavior of fasteners and joining parts material, structural geometry of the joining components, size and spacing of fasteners, mission loads, boundary conditions, etc. These variables have inherent uncertainties, which need to be accounted for in the reliability assessment. This paper describes these uncertainties along with a methodology to quantify the reliability, and provides results of the analysis in terms of quantified reliability and sensitivity of Stirling power conversion reliability to the design variables. Quantification of the reliability includes both structural and functional aspects of the joining components. Based on the results, the paper also describes guidelines to improve the reliability and verification testing.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS1971

The Effect of Suspension-Line Length on Viking Parachute Inflation Loads

Analytical calculations have considered the effect on maximum load of increasing the suspension-line length on the Viking parachute. Results indicate that unfurling time is increased to 1.85 seconds from 1.45 seconds, and that maximum loads are increased approximately 5 percent with an uncertainty of -4 percent to +3 percent.

Talay, Theodore A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Details of Side Load Test Data and Analysis for a Truncated Ideal Contour Nozzle and a Parabolic Contour Nozzle

Two cold flow subscale nozzles were tested for side load characteristics during simulated nozzle start transients. The two test article contours were a truncated ideal and a parabolic. The current paper is an extension of a 2009 AIAA JPC paper on the test results for the same two nozzle test articles. The side load moments were measured with the strain tube approach in MSFC s Nozzle Test Facility. The processing techniques implemented to convert the strain gage signals into side load moment data are explained. Nozzle wall pressure profiles for separated nozzle flow at many NPRs are presented and discussed in detail. The effect of the test cell diffuser inlet on the parabolic nozzle s wall pressure profiles for separated flow is shown. The maximum measured side load moments for the two contours are compared. The truncated ideal contour s peak side load moment was 45% of that of the parabolic contour. The calculated side load moments, via mean-plus-three-standard-deviations at each nozzle pressure ratio, reproduced the characteristics and absolute values of measured maximums for both contours. The effect of facility vibration on the measured side load moments is quantified and the effect on uncertainty is calculated. The nozzle contour designs are discussed and the impact of a minor fabrication flaw in the nozzle contours is explained.

Ruf, Joseph H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗