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The aim is to create a prototype open-source long-term load forecasting tool suitable for quickly assembling country-level load forecasts for power sector planning models accounting for major drivers like population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), technology adoption, and a changing climate.
We have conducted 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations of an idealized coaxial impedance-matched Marx generator (IMG) []. The 0D calculations were conducted with a four-element circuit model; the 1D, 2D, and 3D calculations were conducted with highly resolved, fully electromagnetic representations. The IMG consists of 30 stages distributed axially and connected electrically in series. Each stage is powered by two bricks separated by 180° and connected electrically in parallel. Each brick comprises two opposite-polarity capacitors in series with a single switch. The bricks drive an internal impedance-matched coaxial transmission line terminated by a resistive load. The simulations neglect effects due to the switch-triggering circuit, the capacitor-charging circuit, external conducting boundaries, and reactive components of the load. We find dimensionality does not significantly affect the electrical power delivered by the IMG to its load: peak load powers estimated by the 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations agree to within 1%. The 3D calculations demonstrate that electromagnetic power radiated by the bricks, and axial gaps between stages, reduces the peak load power by less than ∼ 1 % . Each simulation assumes the load impedance is 34% above that at which the load power is maximized. Operating an IMG with such an overmatched load offers several advantages while decreasing the peak load power by only 2%. The 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D models outlined herein could be adapted to assess computationally competing IMG designs, and conduct a variety of numerical IMG experiments, an IMG is constructed. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and the proposed system is an improvement over alternate low carbon dispatchable power options. Our demonstration will include 54 MWh of hydrogen storage. CO 2 capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% of the CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%) in a commercial system (~300 MWth) for sequestration or other uses. The hydrogen will be utilized in a duct burner in a Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) integrated with the existing Southern Company fossil asset. Here, the firing rate of the duct burner is varied to let the plant respond to fluctuations of electrical load. However, H 2 production is relatively constant by storing H 2 , and revenues are improved by arbitrage between use of low-cost off-peak variable electricity generation or use of stored H 2 under peak demand. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into/iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance models and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Our system generates power at 17.4% lower cost than other low carbon approaches for the H 2 generation, H 2 compression and storage, carbon sequestration, and HRSG added electricity production for a large-scale duct-fired system. Our team recommends completing the Phase II Pre-FEED study for the proposed system as the next step for the project and its tasks will achieve the overall objective and be ready to launch the FEED. The Pre-FEED tasks include updating the requirements, Concept of Operations, plant scope/process description, component modeling, system modeling, performance estimates, emission estimates, block flow diagrams, fluid/process conditions (PFD), utility usage, and facility sizing/definition. The approach will be to complete these updates in a greater level of detail for the selected site. The approach for developing the EIV is to use the updated results, including model outputs, for carbon dioxide and waste streams.
The load profiles of most commercial and industrial consumers are characterized by brief periods of very high power consumption followed by intervals of lower demand. To encourage such consumers to flatten their load profiles, power utilities in and around the world often levy a monthly demand charge (DC) on the peak demand measured over brief intervals. In this work, we consider the joint optimization of energy costs (EC) and the instantaneous peak power of a multi-unit building which uses a hydronic heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system and responds to a demand response (DR) program. Despite the non-linear structure of the problem, we show how optimal solutions can be obtained efficiently using linear programming. Next, we study the power demand patterns resulting from our proposed strategy for thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), and evaluate the strategy’s performance for various climate zones in the US, under both typical and atypical weather conditions. Finally, the results show that depending on the ambient conditions and the tariff structure, our strategy can result in utility bill savings of up to nearly 19% compared to the baseline. The results also indicate that our power control strategy can significantly reduce the instantaneous peak power consumption in commercial TCLs.
Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.
Methods, apparatus, and systems are disclosed herein for power modulation control of power grids using end-use loads. At the beginning of a coordination period typically lasting a few minutes, a population of end-use loads (water heaters, air conditioners, plug-in electric vehicles, etc.) is interrogated for their willingness to participate in power modulation by undergoing state transitions from on to off, or off to on. Distribution system flexibilities are calculated from the sums of device powers within distribution systems. Area flexibilities are calculated from the sums of device powers within areas. Thresholds for various devices to change state in response to inter-area oscillation damping or frequency regulation are derived from these flexibilities. Two power functions are monitored in real-time and compared with the device thresholds to trigger state changes which then remain locked throughout the remainder of the coordination period, then the devices are released from the lockout state.
This manuscript focused on analyzing electric vehicles’ (EV) charging behavior patterns with a functional data analysis (FDA) approach, with the goal of providing theoretical support to the EV infrastructure planning and regulation, as well as the power grid load management. 5-year real-world charging log data from a total of 455 charging stations in Kansas City, Missouri, was used. The focuses were placed on analyzing the daily usage occupancy variability, daily energy consumption variability, and station-level usage variability. Compared with the traditional discrete-based analysis models, the proposed FDA modeling approach had unique advantages in preserving the smooth function behavior of the data, bringing more flexibility in the modeling process with little required assumptions or background knowledge on independent variables, as well as the capability of handling time series data with different lengths or sizes. In addition to the patterns revealed in the EV charging station’s occupancy and energy consumption, the differences between EV driver’s charging time and parking time were analyzed and called for the needs for parking regulation and enforcement. The different usage patterns observed at charging stations located on different land-use types were also analyzed.
The wind energy market is currently dominated by horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs); however, vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) are emerging as a design alternative, especially for deep-water offshore siting due to their low center of gravity, ease of access to drivetrain components, and overall simplicity. Due to the absence of a pitch mechanism in large-scale Darrieus VAWTs, stall control has often been used to manage power and loads. Introducing a pitching mechanism in H-type VAWTs has been studied, but this diminishes the mechanical simplicity advantage, and the use of a pitching mechanism in a large-scale Darrieus-type VAWT is not practical. This work examines an innovative, alternative method to control the rotor dynamics of a large-scale 5 MW VAWT to maximize power while constraining loads without introducing any new or complex mechanical elements. This control strategy is termed intracycle revolution per minute (RPM) control, where the rotational speed of the turbine is allowed to vary in an optimal fashion with the azimuthal location of blades as opposed to typical constant RPM operation. An optimization framework is formulated for an open-loop optimal control problem and solved to maximize power subject to constraints on aerodynamic design loads. Results are presented to demonstrate the benefits and the performance limits of intracycle RPM control for large-scale 5 MW Darrieus VAWTs, namely, (1) power production (quantified in terms of AEP) that can be increased subject to baseline load limits and (2) opportunities to significantly increase AEP or decrease loads via intracycle RPM control that are examined for both two-bladed and three-bladed VAWTs.
We developed a machine learning-based load disaggregation method to estimate the real-time output of individual appliances from the whole-house measurements. We first learn the important features associated with each type of appliances using the ground truth consumption data of individual appliances potentially available for a small set of houses equipped with submeters. The learned features are then be used to estimate the power generation/consumption of the appliances from the whole-house consumption. This developed load disaggregation software includes two steps. The first step is to identify the on/off status of different appliances using a classification method, and the second step is to estimate the appliance output using a regression method.
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This report covers recent progress on research tasks that support both the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) initiative and the Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (PACE) consortium. The Co-Optima tasks further the science-base needed by industry stakeholders to co-evolve the next generation of highly efficient direct injection spark ignition (DISI) engines and new gasoline-type fuels. The research emphasis is on fuel effects on multimode spark ignition (SI) engine operation, which uses traditional non-dilute stoichiometric operation for peak load and power but reverts to lean operation at lower loads to provide higher fuel economy. This work focuses on determining desirable fuel specifications in terms of well-established metrics like research octane number (RON) and motor octane number, but it also involves the assessment of new fuel metrics, including fuel sooting propensity and phi-sensitivity. The PACE task supports the development of predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling, which promises to unlock new strategies for high-efficiency combustion while minimizing tailpipe emissions. Here, the primary fuel is a regular E10 gasoline (i.e., a regular gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol), and focus is on fuel-spray dynamics and soot emissions. Soot-formation pathways are studied to determine how the pathways change with injection strategies and the thermal state of the engine (i.e., cold-starting vs. fully warmed-up operation). This PACE task also contributed to the development of an optimal E10 gasoline surrogate fuel, as reported in detail elsewhere
Paper for presentation at The 14th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering (PSE 2021+), Kyoto, Japan, June 19-23, (2022).
Abstract Wind loading is a primary contributor to structural design costs of concentrating solar-thermal power collectors, such as heliostats and parabolic troughs. These structures must resist the mechanical forces generated by turbulent wind, while the reflector surfaces must maintain optimal optical performance. Studying wind-driven loads at a full-scale, operational concentrating solar-thermal power plant provides insights into the wind impact on the solar collector field beyond the capabilities of wind tunnel tests or state-of-the-art simulations. We conducted comprehensive field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions and the resulting structural wind loads on parabolic troughs at the Nevada Solar One plant over a two-year period. The measurement setup included meteorological masts and structural load sensors on four trough rows. Additionally, a lidar scanned the horizontal plane above the trough field. In this study, we describe the high-resolution dataset characterizing the complex flow field and resulting structural loads. This first-of-its-kind dataset will enhance the understanding of wind loading on collector structures and will help in designing the next-generation solar collectors and photovoltaic trackers.
Roadways with dynamic wireless charging systems (DWCS) enable charge-sustaining in-motion EV charging, which can reduce charging idle time while increasing range capabilities. Spatially distributed transmitter coils are controlled in response to traffic load that varies significantly minute to minute with high power levels, very short charging time, and low system utilization like wind turbine power. Traffic load estimation and localized analysis may guide effective sizing and topology adoption for feasible and scalable DWCS deployment. DWCS traffic load approximation is reviewed with measured Automated Traffic Recorder (ATR) data and statistical distributions being used to create a synthetic load analyzed using proposed metrics quantifying system utilization over time. Lumped coil section segmentation is compared between second-based distance and spatial density analysis methods, offering 17-27% greater system utilization. A peak load shifting method is proposed for traffic redirection across two tracks with optional BESS integration increasing system utilization by 50-60% depending on time-based and power reserve-based sizing and control.
Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.
The ability of nuclear power plants to load follow electrical power demand is particularly important as we move to higher variable renewable (VRE) energy production on low carbon energy grids. High temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) are capable of load following by adjusting thermal output, but their high temperatures and thermal inertia significantly impact the power transients they are able to follow. To aid investigation into new integrated energy systems with advanced reactors, it is necessary to have an open-source transient model of a full HTGR primary and secondary. This paper introduces two new open-source models for a HTGR and corresponding balance of plant (BOP) written for the HYBRID library developed at Idaho National Laboratory. A transient thermal load follow test case was taken by the work from Brits et al. to benchmark our open-source model against transient operation results from other proprietary codes that exist. The control scheme for the two new models in combination is discussed and a comparison of the response in transient load follow between the two codes performed.
NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) toolkit harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses. The primary purpose of dsgrid is to create comprehensive electricity load data sets at high temporal, geographic, sectoral, and end-use resolution. These data sets enable detailed analyses of current patterns and future projections of end-use loads. This presentation will include NREL power grid researcher Elaine Hale.
This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.