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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-policy learning-based deep reinforcement learning assessment for building control efficiency and stability

Artificial intelligence technologies have emerged as a game changer not only in specific applications such as image recognition and machine translation but also in many scientific domains. In particular, as deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown great success in complex control problems, DRL-based control has been considered as a potential solution to efficiently control and manage building systems. However, broad assessment of DRL-based building control is still required to characterize their pros and cons in comparison with conventional building control methods (e.g., rule-based feedback controls). In this paper, we assessed DRL-based controls with on-policy learning-based algorithms and continuous control actions for cooling control of large office buildings in the summer season to minimize whole-building energy use and occupant discomfort. We compared DRL-based control methods with two baseline control methods: (1) a pre-determined schedule with supply temperature and static pressure setpoints, and (2) advanced reset method that adjusts setpoints based on heuristic rules, i.e., ASHRAE Guideline 36. We also tested the DRL algorithms to evaluate their performances in multiple climate locations. We found that DRL-based control methods outperformed the baseline control methods in terms of energy savings while maintaining a thermal comfort. DRL reduced energy use between ~4%–22% on average compared to the baseline methods, depending on climate location. We also evaluated DRL-based control in terms of control stability and showed that DRL-based methods should address the span of hardware lifetimes in practical operations.

control stability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning and deep learning tools for the automated capture of cancer surveillance data

The National Cancer Institute and the Department of Energy strategic partnership applies advanced computing and predictive machine learning and deep learning models to automate the capture of information from unstructured clinical text for inclusion in cancer registries. Applications include extraction of key data elements from pathology reports, determination of whether a pathology or radiology report is related to cancer, extraction of relevant biomarker information, and identification of recurrence. With the growing complexity of cancer diagnosis and treatment, capturing essential information with purely manual methods is increasingly difficult. These new methods for applying advanced computational capabilities to automate data extraction represent an opportunity to close critical information gaps and create a nimble, flexible platform on which new information sources, such as genomics, can be added. This will ultimately provide a deeper understanding of the drivers of cancer and outcomes in the population and increase the timeliness of reporting. These advances will enable better understanding of how real-world patients are treated and the outcomes associated with those treatments in the context of our complex medical and social environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Fast and Accurate Transient Stability Assessment Method Based on Deep Learning: WECC Case Study

Transient stability is one of the critical aspects of power system stability assessment. The increasing integration of inverter-based resources and the retirement of conventional synchronous generators result in the decreasing system inertia and growing complexity of system operating conditions. Using a few selected typical operating conditions cannot guarantee system transient stability in all operating conditions, and the time-domain simulation of all operating conditions requires tremendous time and is often infeasible. This paper proposes a more efficient transient stability assessment method based on deep learning. The binary search method is used to determine the critical clearing time (CCT) in creating training databased by time-domain simulation. This method is fast and accurate with 1 ms resolution. The buses whose CCTs are lower than 200 ms are considered critical buses. Buses close to each other are grouped based on their mutual admittance matrix to reduce the search space of the critical buses. This paper also proposes the generator feature normalization based on the physical model. Case study on the reduced 240-bus WECC system model demonstrates that the proposed method can predict CCT accurately and efficiently.

critical clearing time↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Smart Water Heater Control: An Actual Deployment

Utilizing smart control algorithms for electric water heaters (EWHs) is essential for fully harnessing the demand response (DR) potential of EWHs. For this reason, the use of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms for EWHs has received increasing attention in recent years. However, existing RL approaches are either simulation-based or use pretrained RL agents. To this end, this paper presents the real-world deployment of a set of model-free RL approaches that aim to minimize the electricity cost of a EWH under a time-of-use electricity pricing policy using standard DR commands (e.g., shed, load up). The experiment results showed that the RL agents can help save electricity cost in the range of 11% to 14% compared to the baseline operation. This study demonstrated that RL-based EWH controllers can be deployed in real world without any prior training and can still save electricity cost.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning and Fast Adaptation for Grid Emergency Control via Deep Meta Reinforcement Learning

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling and Mapping Polymorphs in Fluorite Y2TiO5 Using 4D-STEM and Unsupervised Machine Learning

Y2TiO5 belongs to the Ln2TiO5 (Ln = lanthanide or Y) family of ceramic materials and exhibits a range of desirable material properties such as radiation tolerance, frustrated magnetism, and large dielectric constant. However, understanding the complex crystal structure of Y2TiO5 remains elusive, given that Y2TiO5 can adopt multiple polymorphs such as cubic, orthorhombic, and hexagonal phases within the lattice. In this work, we report a detailed structural analysis of Y2TiO5 using four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy coupled with unsupervised machine learning. The pyrochlore nanodomains, characterized by the ordered arrangement of yttrium cations on the A site of their A2BO5 structure, are present within the matrix of a predominantly fluorite-structured Y2TiO5 along with a third polymorph, the hexagonal phase. The pyrochlore phase is found to form 2 nm boundary regions around hexagonal phase stacking faults, highlighting the potential influence of the hexagonal phase on the occurrence and distribution of the pyrochlore phase. Lastly, we identify a unique pyrochlore phase with asymmetric arrangement of cation ordering along a single planar direction. Our findings provide invaluable insights into the possible mechanisms stabilizing pyrochlore nanodomains within the fluorite lattice of Y2TiO5.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
NASA NTRS2018

Earth Science Deep Learning: Applications and Lessons Learned

Deep learning has revolutionized computer vision and natural language processing with various algorithms scaled using high-performance computing. At the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), the Data Science and Informatics Group (DSIG) has been using deep learning for a variety of Earth science applications. This paper provides examples of the applications and also addresses some of the challenges that were encountered.

Training↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning Methods for Connection RTT and Loss Rate Estimation Using MPI Measurements Under Random Losses

Scientific computations are expected to be increasingly distributed across wide-area networks, and Message Passing Interface (MPI) has been shown to scale to support their communications over long distances. Application-level measurements of MPI operations reflect the connection Round-Trip Time (RTT) and loss rate, and machine learning methods have been previously developed to estimate them under deterministic periodic losses. In this paper, we consider more complex, random losses with unform, Poisson and Gaussian distributions. We study five disparate machine leaning methods, with linear and non-linear, and smooth and non-smooth properties, to estimate RTT and loss rate over 10Gbps connections with 0-366ms RTT. The diversity and complexity of these estimators combined with the randomness of losses and TCP’s non-linear response together rule out the selection of a single best among them; instead, we fuse them to retain their design diversity. Overall, the results show that accurate estimates can be generated at low loss rates but become inaccurate at loss rates 10% and higher, thereby illustrating both their strengths and limitations.

Generalization Bounds↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pre-trained network-based transfer learning: A small-sample machine learning approach to nuclear power plant classification problem

Some research topics belonging to classification problems in the nuclear industry, such as fault diagnosis and accident identification, can be solved by feature extraction and subsequent application of statistical machine learning classifiers. Recently, deep neural network-based methods with automatic feature extraction and high accuracy have gained wide attention. They usually require large-scale training data, however, plant fault or accident data are scarce or difficult to obtain. Here this paper proposes a convolutional network (CNN)-based transfer learning method to solve this problem. The network's shallow layer is derived from a pre-trained CNN based on the ImageNet database to automatically extract features, and the deep layer is customized to match the classification problem. Data in non-image formats are converted to image formats and subsequently used to train the network. Case studies of rotating machines fault diagnosis show that the proposed method requires only limited training data to achieve high accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Progress of Reactive-Mixing

This paper presents a physics-informed machine learning (ML) framework to construct reduced-order models (ROMs) for reactive-transport quantities of interest (QoIs) based on high-fidelity numerical simu-lations. QoIs include species decay, product yield, and degree of mixing. The ROMs for QoIs are applied to quantify and understand how the chemical species evolve over time. First, high-resolution datasets for constructing ROMs are generated by solving anisotropic reaction-di?usion equations using a non-negative finite element formulation for di?erent input parameters. The reactive-mixing model input parameters are: time-scale associated with flipping of velocity, spatial-scale controlling small/large vortex structures of velocity, perturbation parameter of the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion strength/contrast, and molecular diffusion. Second, random forests, F-test, and mutual information criterion are used to evaluate the importance of model inputs/features with respect to QoIs. We observed that anisotropic dispersion strength/contrast is the most important feature and time-scale associated with flipping of velocity is the least important feature. Third, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are used to construct ROMs based on the model inputs. The constructed SVR-ROMs are then used to predict scaling of QoIs. We also present estimates and inequalities on the QoIs, which inform that the species decay, mix, and produce in an exponential fashion. These inequalities also inform that a radial basis function is the most suitable kernel for the SVM/SVR models for QoIs. It is observed that R2-score for SVR-ROMs on unseen data is greater than 0.9, implying that the SVR-ROMs are able to predict the reaction-diffusion system state reasonably well. Finally, in terms of the computational cost, the proposed SVM-ROMs are O(107) times faster than running a high-fidelity finite element simulation for evaluating QoIs. This makes the proposed ML-based ROMs attractive for reactive-transport sensing and real-time monitoring applications as they are significantly faster yet reasonably accurate.

Mudunuru, Maruti K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Materials Learning Algorithms (MALA): Scalable machine learning for electronic structure calculations in large-scale atomistic simulations

We present the Materials Learning Algorithms (MALA) package, a scalable machine learning framework designed to accelerate density functional theory (DFT) calculations suitable for large-scale atomistic simulations. Using local descriptors of the atomic environment, MALA models efficiently predict key electronic observables, including local density of states, electronic density, density of states, and total energy. The package integrates data sampling, model training and scalable inference into a unified library, while ensuring compatibility with standard DFT and molecular dynamics codes. We demonstrate MALA's capabilities with examples including boron clusters, aluminum across its solid-liquid phase boundary, and predicting the electronic structure of a stacking fault in a large beryllium slab. Scaling analyses reveal MALA's computational efficiency and identify bottlenecks for future optimization. With its ability to model electronic structures at scales far beyond standard DFT, MALA is well suited for modeling complex material systems, making it a versatile tool for advanced materials research.

Density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and deep learning for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation in geological carbon Storage: A case study in the Illinois Basin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising approach to simultaneously maintaining energy security and reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under the current energy portfolio that is dominated by fossil fuel energy. Pre-injection formation characterization and post-injection CO 2 monitoring are two critical tasks to guarantee storage efficiency in CCS. The CCS projects in the Illinois Basin, the first large-scale CO 2 injection into saline aquifers in the United States, employed conventional and the latest pulsed neutron logging (PNL) tools for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation, which provide valuable references for future CCS projects. Because of the inherent fuzziness of petrophysical measurements and complex subsurface heterogeneity, interpreting well-logging data is time-consuming, and its accuracy can be user-biased. In recent years, data-driven methods have been widely used to capture the non-linear patterns between input features and interpretation results. This work applied and evaluated four commonly used machine learning (ML) models, including ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector regression (SVR), and one deep learning (DL) model, the artificial neural network (ANN). We optimized the hyperparameters of the four ML models and the DL model using the simulated annealing algorithm and the grid search strategy, respectively. The input features of the mineralogy interpretation models were eleven conventional well-logging parameters, and the label data (i.e., ground truth) were the porosity and volumetric fractions of six minerals, including quartz, feldspar, dolomite, calcite, clay, and iron minerals. The results demonstrated that the GBR and RF models were superior in predicting volumetric fractions of minerals and porosity; label data with low coefficient of variation (CV) values tended to yield better performance. For CO 2 saturation estimation, the RF was the best-performing model, followed by SVR, ANN, GBR, and RR. Furthermore, we conducted feature importance ranking using the permutation importance algorithm and found that the formation sigma and well pressure were the most important features in this study. In conclusion, the study of CCS projects in the Illinois Basin bridges the gap between the limited knowledge and understanding of geological carbon storage and the increasing demand for reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable energy solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗