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NASA NTRS2001

Cross Calibration of TOMS, SBUV/2 and Sciamachy Radiances from Ground Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify recovery. We have shown that validation of radiances is the most effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Validation of radiances will also improve all higher level data products derived from the satellite observations. Backscatter algorithms suffer from several errors such as unrepresentative a-priori data and air mass factor corrections. Radiance comparisons employ forward models but are inherently more accurate and than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called "Skyrad", employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS. SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOME-2, OMI, and OMPS. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method.

Hillsenrath, Ernest↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applicability of Loads Estimation Techniques Using Sparse Acceleration Sensor Data to Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring

The use of structural health monitoring systems on spacecraft structures can play a crucial role in ensuring the safety, reliability, and longevity of the structure by gathering and analyzing onboard sensor data. Of specific importance is monitoring for excessive loading at critical interfaces as any off-nominal structural excitations experienced by spacecraft structures can cause early unpredicted high structural life consumption or damage. The availability and cost of flight-certified sensors along with the size of spacecraft structures and allowable payload mass drives the need for a method to estimate loads using sparsely-located sensors. Numerous approaches such as physics-based, statistical learning, and physics-enhanced statistical learning algorithms have gained popularity among structural prognostics applications. However, developing noise-robust prediction models to assess loads and structural life predictions from a sparse multi-sensor data acquisition system can be a challenging task. This paper discusses the evaluation of physics-based versus machine-learning algorithms for predicting loads and structural life at mission critical locations on the spacecraft structure using a finite element loads analysis with the application of simulated noise and noise reduction techniques. To estimate the loads from accelerations, the physics-based algorithm leverages a loads transformation matrix from a Craig-Bampton reduced finite element model. A System Equivalent Reduction Expansion Process (SEREP) and a pseudo-inverse approach are considered to expand from the onboard sensor degrees of freedom to the Craig-Bampton model degrees of freedom. The machine learning algorithm provides a data driven solution/mapping of the sensor accelerations to the loads at the mission critical locations using a high dimensionality analysis. Although these strategies produce comparable loads prediction without noise, the limitations of these strategies with incorporating simulated noise and noise reduction techniques with low signal to noise ratio signals are evaluated. The study demonstrates the immense potential of statistical learning algorithms for sparse structural prognostic models and enhancing signal denoising techniques. These findings also highlight the need for noise-resilient prognostic models and low-noise data acquisition systems onboard spacecraft structures.

Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring↗
NASA NTRS1989

A fully-coupled implicit method for thermo-chemical nonequilibrium air at sub-orbital flight speeds

A CFD technique is described in which the finite-rate chemistry in thermal and chemical nonequilibrium air is fully and implicitly coupled with the fluid motion. Developed for use in the suborbital hypersonic flight speed range, the method accounts for nonequilibrium vibrational and electronic excitation and dissociation, but not ionization. The steady-state solution to the resulting system of equations is obtained by using a lower-upper factorization and symmetric Gauss-Seidel sweeping technique through Newton iteration. Inversion of the left-hand-side matrices is replaced by scalar multiplications through the use of the diagonal dominance algorithm. The code, named CENS2H (Compressible-Euler-Navier-Stokes Two-Dimensional Hypersonic), is fully vectorized and requires about 8.8 x 10 to the -5th sec per node point per iteration using a Cray X-MP computer. Converged solutions are obtained after about 2400 iterations. Sample calculations are made for a circular cylinder and a 10 percent airfoil at 5 deg angle of attack. The calculated cylinder flow field agrees with that obtained experimentally. The code predicts a 10 percent change in lift, drag, and pitching moment for the airfoil due to the thermochemical phenomena.

Park, Chul↗
NASA NTRS2018

Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review

In this paper we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.

Earth observations↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simultaneous Planck, Swift, and Fermi Observations of X-Ray and gamma-Ray Selected Blazars

We present simultaneous Planck, Swift, Fermi, and ground-based data for 105 blazars belonging to three samples with flux limits in the soft X-ray, hard X-ray, and -ray bands, and we compare our results to those of a companion paper presenting simultaneous Planck and multi-frequency observations of 104 radio-loud northern active galactic nuclei selected at radio frequencies. While we confirm several previous results, our unique data set has allowed us to demonstrate that the selection method strongly influences the results, producing biases that cannot be ignored. Almost all the BL Lac objects have been detected by Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), whereas 30 to 40% of the flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) in the radio, soft X-ray, and hard X-ray selected samples are still below the gamma ray detection limit even after integrating 27 months of Fermi-LAT data. The radio to sub-millimetre spectral slope of blazars is quite flat, with [alpha] approximately 0 up to about 70 GHz, above which it steepens to [alpha] approximately -0.65. BL Lacs have significantly flatter spectra than FSRQs at higher frequencies. The distribution of the rest-frame synchrotron peak frequency (v(sup IC) (sub (PEAK)), ranges from 10(sup 21) to 10(sup 22) HZ. The distribution of the rest-frame synchrotron peak frequency (v(sup s)(sub peak)) in the spectral energy distribution (SED) of FSRQs is the same in all the blazar samples with (v(sup s)(sub peak) = 10(sup 13:1 plus or minus 0.1) Hz, while the mean inverse-Compton peak frequency,(v(sup IC)(sub peak) ranges from 10(sup 21) to 10(sup 22) Hz. The distributions of v(sup S)(sub peak) and of v(sup IC)(sub peak) of BL Lacs are much broader and are shifted to higher energies than those of FSRQs; their shapes strongly depend on the selection method. The Compton dominance of blazars ranges from less than 0.2 to nearly 100, with only FSRQs reaching values larger than about 3. Its distribution is broad and depends strongly on the selection method, with gamma-ray selected blazars peaking at approximately 7 or more, and radio-selected blazars at values close to 1, thus implying that the common assumption that the blazar power budget is largely dominated by high-energy emission is a selection effect. A comparison of our multi-frequency data with theoretical predictions shows that simple homogeneous SSC models cannot explain the simultaneous SEDs of most of the gamma-ray detected blazars in all samples. The SED of the blazars that were not detected by Fermi-LAT may instead be consistent with SSC emission. Our data challenge the correlation between bolometric luminosity and v(sup S)(sub peak) predicted by the blazar sequence.

Giommi, P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions

The application of the F-ratio test, a standard statistical technique, to the results of relative plate motion inversions has been investigated. The method tests whether the improvement in fit of the model to the data resulting from the addition of another plate to the model is greater than that expected purely by chance. This approach appears to be useful in determining whether additional plate boundaries are justified. Previous results have been confirmed favoring separate North American and South American plates with a boundary located beween 30 N and the equator. Using Chase's global relative motion data, it is shown that in addition to separate West African and Somalian plates, separate West Indian and Australian plates, with a best-fitting boundary between 70 E and 90 E, can be resolved. These results are generally consistent with the observation that the Indian plate's internal deformation extends somewhat westward of the Ninetyeast Ridge. The relative motion pole is similar to Minster and Jordan's and predicts the NW-SE compression observed in earthquake mechanisms near the Ninetyeast Ridge.

Stein, S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

OSOAA: A Vector Radiative Transfer Model of Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System for a Rough Sea Surface Application to the Estimates of the Directional Variations of the Water Leaving Reflectance to Better Process Multi-angular Satellite Sensors Data Over the Ocean

In this study, we present a radiative transfer model, so-called OSOAA, that is able to predict the radiance and degree of polarization within the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in the presence of a rough sea surface. The OSOAA model solves the radiative transfer equation using the successive orders of scattering method. Comparisons with another operational radiative transfer model showed a satisfactory agreement within 0.8%. The OSOAA model has been designed with a graphical user interface to make it user friendly for the community. The radiance and degree of polarization are provided at any level, from the top of atmosphere to the ocean bottom. An application of the OSOAA model is carried out to quantify the directional variations of the water leaving reflectance and degree of polarization for phytoplankton and mineral-like dominated waters. The difference between the water leaving reflectance at a given geometry and that obtained for the nadir direction could reach 40%, thus questioning the Lambertian assumption of the sea surface that is used by inverse satellite algorithms dedicated to multi-angular sensors. It is shown as well that the directional features of the water leaving reflectance are weakly dependent on wind speed. The quantification of the directional variations of the water leaving reflectance obtained in this study should help to correctly exploit the satellite data that will be acquired by the current or forthcoming multi-angular satellite sensors.

Ocean surface↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Titan's Surface Temperatures from Cassini CIRS Observations

We report a wide-ranging study of Titan's surface temperatures by analysis of the Moon's outgoing radiance through a spectral window in the thermal infrared at 19 mm (530/cm) characterized by lower atmospheric opacity. We begin by modeling Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) far infrared spectra collected in the period 2004-2010, using a radiative transfer forward model combined with a non-linear optimal estimation inversion method. At low-latitudes, we agree with the HASI near-surface temperature of about 94 K at 101S (Fulchignoni et al., 2005). We find a systematic decrease from the equator toward the poles, hemispherically asymmetric, of approx. 1 K at 60 deg. south and approx. 3 K at 60 deg. north, in general agreement with a previous analysis of CIRS data and with Voyager results from the previous northern winter. Subdividing the available database, corresponding to about one Titan season, into 3 consecutive periods, small seasonal changes of up to 2 K at 60 deg N became noticeable in the results. In addition, clear evidence of diurnal variations of the surface temperatures near the equator are observed for the first time: we find a trend of slowly increasing temperature from the morning to the early afternoon and a faster decrease during the night. The diurnal change is approx. 1.5 K, in agreement with model predictions for a surface with a thermal inertia between 300 and 600 J/ sq. m s (exp -1/2) / K. These results provide important constraints on coupled surface-atmosphere models of Titan's meteorology and atmospheric dynamic.

titan↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Warner, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Inverse Compton Cooling in the Coronae of Simulated Black Hole Accretion Flows

We present a formulation for a local cooling function to be employed in the diffuse, hot corona region of 3D GRMHD simulations of accreting black holes. This new cooling function calculates the cooling rate due to inverse Compton scattering by considering the relevant microphysics in each cell in the corona and approximating the radiation energy density and Compton temperature there by integrating over the thermal seed photon flux from the disk surface. The method either assumes ion and electron tem- peratures are equal (1T), or calculates them separately (2T) using an instantaneous equilibrium approach predicated on the actual relevant rate equations (Coulomb and Compton). The method is shown to be consistent with a more detailed ray-tracing calculation where the bulk of the cooling occurs, but is substantially less costly to per- form. As an example, we apply these methods to a harm3d simulation of a 10M⊙, non-spinning black hole, accreting at nominally 1% the Eddington value. Both 1T and 2T approaches lead to increased radiative efficiency and a larger fraction of total cooling in the corona as compared to the original target-temperature cooling function used by harm3d, especially in the 1T case. Time-averaged post-processing reveals that the continuum spectral observations predicted from these simulations are qualitatively similar to actual X-ray binary data, especially so for the 1T approach which yields a harder power-law component (Γ = 2.25) compared to the 2T version (Γ = 2.53).

Brooks E. Kinch↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗
NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗
NASA NTRS2020

INVESTIGATING THE FEASIBILITY AND STABILITY FOR MODELING ACOUSTIC WAVE SCATTERING USING A TIME-DOMAIN BOUNDARY INTEGRAL EQUATION WITH IMPEDANCE BOUNDARY CONDITION

Reducing aircraft noise is a major objective in the field of computational aeroacoustics. When designing next generation quiet and environmentally friendly aircraft, it is important to be able to accurately and efficiently predict the acoustic scattering by an aircraft body from a given noise source. Acoustic liners are an effective tool for aircraft noise reduction and are characterized by a frequency-dependent impedance. Converted into the time-domain using Fourier transforms, an impedance boundary condition can be used to simulate the acoustic wave scattering by geometric bodies treated with acoustic liners. This work considers using either an impedance or an admittance (inverse of impedance) boundary condition to allow for acoustic scattering problems to be modeled with geometries consisting of both un-lined and lined surfaces. Three acoustic liner models are discussed: the Extended Helmholtz Resonator Model, the Three-Parameter Impedance Model, and the Broadband Impedance Model. In both the Helmholtz and Three-Parameter models, liner impedance is specified at a given frequency, whereas the Broadband model allows for the investigation of multiple frequencies simultaneously. The impedance and admittance boundary conditions for acoustic liners are derived for each model and coupled with a time-domain boundary integral equation. The scattering solution is obtained iteratively using a boundary element method with constant spatial and third-order temporal basis functions. Time-domain boundary integral equations are unfortunately prone to numerical instabilities due to resonant frequencies resulting from non-trivial solutions in the interior domain. When reformulated with the Burton-Miller method, the instabilities are eliminated. Using a Burton-Miller reformulation, the stability of the boundary element method assuming a liner boundary condition is assessed using eigenvalue analysis. The stability of each liner model is discussed, and it is shown that the Three-Parameter and Broadband models are sufficient for modeling an acoustic liner on the surface of scattering bodies. The Helmholtz model demonstrates strict limitations for stability, whereas the Three-Parameter and Broadband models are stable for most cases. Also included in this work is an assessment of the spatial accuracy of the time-domain boundary element method with respect to the surface element basis functions, as well as a performance study of the numerical algorithm.

computational mathematics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Retrievals of Aerosol Optical and Microphysical Properties from Imaging Polar Nephelometer Scattering Measurements

A method for the retrieval of aerosol optical and microphysical properties from in situ light-scattering measurements is presented and the results are compared with existing measurement techniques. The Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) is applied to airborne and laboratory measurements made by a novel polar nephelometer. This instrument, the Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph), is capable of making high-accuracy field measurements of phase function and degree of linear polarization, at three visible wavelengths, over a wide angular range of 3 to 177°. The resulting retrieval produces particle size distributions (PSDs) that agree, within experimental error, with measurements made by commercial optical particle counters (OPCs). Additionally, the retrieved real part of the refractive index is generally found to be within the predicted error of 0.02 from the expected values for three species of humidified salt particles, with a refractive index that is well established. The airborne measurements used in this work were made aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field campaign, and the inversion of this data represents the first aerosol retrievals of airborne polar nephelometer data. The results provide confidence in the real refractive index product, as well as in the retrieval's ability to accurately determine PSD, without assumptions about refractive index that are required by the majority of OPCs.

Espinosa, W. Reed↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS1996

Aerodynamic shape optimization using control theory

Aerodynamic shape design has long persisted as a difficult scientific challenge due its highly nonlinear flow physics and daunting geometric complexity. However, with the emergence of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) it has become possible to make accurate predictions of flows which are not dominated by viscous effects. It is thus worthwhile to explore the extension of CFD methods for flow analysis to the treatment of aerodynamic shape design. Two new aerodynamic shape design methods are developed which combine existing CFD technology, optimal control theory, and numerical optimization techniques. Flow analysis methods for the potential flow equation and the Euler equations form the basis of the two respective design methods. In each case, optimal control theory is used to derive the adjoint differential equations, the solution of which provides the necessary gradient information to a numerical optimization method much more efficiently then by conventional finite differencing. Each technique uses a quasi-Newton numerical optimization algorithm to drive an aerodynamic objective function toward a minimum. An analytic grid perturbation method is developed to modify body fitted meshes to accommodate shape changes during the design process. Both Hicks-Henne perturbation functions and B-spline control points are explored as suitable design variables. The new methods prove to be computationally efficient and robust, and can be used for practical airfoil design including geometric and aerodynamic constraints. Objective functions are chosen to allow both inverse design to a target pressure distribution and wave drag minimization. Several design cases are presented for each method illustrating its practicality and efficiency. These include non-lifting and lifting airfoils operating at both subsonic and transonic conditions.

Reuther, James↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Evaluation of Quantitative Methods of Determining the Degree of Melting Experienced by a Chondrule

Many workers have considered the degree to which partial melting occurred in chondrules they have studied, and this has led to attempts to find reliable methods of determining the degree of melting. At least two quantitative methods have been used in the literature: a convolution index (CVI), which is a ratio of the perimeter of the chondrule as seen in thin section divided by the perimeter of a circle with the same area as the chondrule, and nominal grain size (NGS), which is the inverse square root of the number density of olivines and pyroxenes in a chondrule (again, as seen in thin section). We have evaluated both nominal grain size and convolution index as melting indicators. Nominal grain size was measured on the results of a set of dynamic crystallization experiments previously described, where aliquots of LEW97008(L3.4) were heated to peak temperatures of 1250, 1350, 1370, and 1450 C, representing varying degrees of partial melting of the starting material. Nominal grain size numbers should correlate with peak temperature (and therefore degree of partial melting) if it is a good melting indicator. The convolution index is not directly testable with these experiments because the experiments do not actually create chondrules (and therefore they have no outline on which to measure a CVI). Thus we had no means to directly test how well the CVI predicted different degrees of melting. Therefore, we discuss the use of the CVI measurement and support the discussion with X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) data.

Nettles, J. W.↗