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This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.
The planning problem has traditionally been treated separately from the scheduling problem. However, as more realistic domains are tackled, it becomes evident that the problem of deciding on an ordered set of tasks to achieve a set of goals cannot be treated independently of the problem of actually allocating resources to the tasks. Doing so would result in losing the robustness and flexibility needed to deal with imperfectly modeled domains. Completable scheduling is an approach which integrates the two problems by allowing an a priori planning module to defer particular planning decisions, and consequently the associated scheduling decisions, until execution time. This allows a completable scheduling system to maximize plan flexibility by allowing runtime information to be taken into consideration when making planning and scheduling decision. Furthermore, through the criteria of achievability placed on deferred decision, a completable scheduling system is able to retain much of the goal-directedness and guarantees of achievement afforded by a priori planning. The completable scheduling approach is further enhanced by the use of contingent explanation-based learning, which enables a completable scheduling system to learn general completable plans from example and improve its performance through experience. Initial experimental results show that completable scheduling outperforms classical scheduling as well as pure reactive scheduling in a simple scheduling domain.
The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).
This paper outlines the best practices of the Vehicle Design Team for VIPA. The functions of the VIPA Vehicle Design (VVD) discipline team are to maintain the controlled reference geometry and provide linked, simplified geometry for each of the other discipline analyses. The core of the VVD work, and the approach for VVD s first task of controlling the reference geometry, involves systems engineering, top-down, layout-based CAD modeling within a Product Data Manager (PDM) development environment. The top- down approach allows for simple control of very large, integrated assemblies and greatly enhances the ability to generate trade configurations and reuse data. The second VVD task, model simplification for analysis, is handled within the managed environment through application of the master model concept. In this approach, there is a single controlling, or master, product definition dataset. Connected to this master model are reference datasets with live geometric and expression links. The referenced models can be for drawings, manufacturing, visualization, embedded analysis, or analysis simplification. A discussion of web based interaction, including visualization, between the design and other disciplines is included. Demonstrated examples are cited, including the Space Launch Initiative development cycle, the Saturn V systems integration and verification cycle, an Orbital Space Plane study, and NASA Exploration Office studies of Shuttle derived and clean sheet launch vehicles. The VIPA Team has brought an immense amount of detailed data to bear on program issues. A central piece of that success has been the Managed Development Environment and the VVD Team approach to modeling.
This paper explores two optimal control approaches, widely used in robotics, to establish their viability as real-time trajectory planners for vehicle configurations envisioned for the emerging aviation sector of Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) enables planning over highly nonlinear dynamics using second-order approximations along a nominal trajectory, and displays quadratic convergence to a local solution. Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) is a stochastic sampling-based algorithm that can optimize for general cost criteria, including potentially highly nonlinear formulations, and supports parallel computation through the use of modern GPU hardware. In this work, DDP and MPPI were implemented using model predictive control (MPC), and the results indicate they are able to successfully transition the aircraft over different flight envelopes and generate trajectories unique to UAM vehicles.
Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.
This paper outlines the best practices of the Vehicle Design Team for VIPA. VIPA is the Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis Team at MSFC. This team was created to reconnect the individual engineering disciplines to be able to perform system level technical assessments in support of program decisions. The functions of the VIPA Vehicle Design (VVD) discipline team are to maintain the controlled reference geometry and provide linked, simplified geometry for each of the other discipline analyses. The core of the VVD work, and the approach for VVD s first task of controlling the reference geometry, involves systems engineering, top-down, layout-based CAD modeling within a Product Data Manager (PDM) development environment. The topdown approach allcws for simple contrnl of very large, integrated assemblies and greatly enhances the ability to generate trade configurations and reuse data. The second W D task, model simplification for analysis, is handled within the managed environment through application of the master model concept. In this approach, there is a single controlling, or master, product definition dataset. Connected to this master model are reference datasets with live geometric and expression links. The referenced models can be for drawings, manufacturing, visualization, embedded analysis, or analysis simplification. A discussion of web based interaction, including visualization, between the design and other disciplines is included. Demonstrated examples are cited, including the Space Launch Initiative development cycle, the Saturn V systems integration and verification cycle, an Orbital Space Plane study, and NASA Exploration Office studies of Shuttle derived and clean sheet launch vehicles. The VIPA Team has brought an immense amount of detailed data to bear on program issues. A central piece of that success has been the Managed Development Environment and the VVD Team approach to modeling.
The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.
A large number of commercial simulation tools support performance oriented studies of complex computer and communication systems. Reliability of these systems, when desired, must be obtained by remodeling the system in a different tool. This has obvious drawbacks: (1) substantial extra effort is required to create the reliability model; (2) through modeling error the reliability model may not reflect precisely the same system as the performance model; (3) as the performance model evolves one must continuously reevaluate the validity of assumptions made in that model. In this paper we describe an approach, and a tool that implements this approach, for integrating a reliability analysis engine into a production quality simulation based performance modeling tool, and for modeling within such an integrated tool. The integrated tool allows one to use the same modeling formalisms to conduct both performance and reliability studies. We describe how the reliability analysis engine is integrated into the performance tool, describe the extensions made to the performance tool to support the reliability analysis, and consider the tool's performance.
Informal benchmarking using personal or professional networks has taken place for many years at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognized early on, the need to formalize the benchmarking process for better utilization of resources and improved benchmarking performance. The need to compete in a faster, better, cheaper environment has been the catalyst for formalizing these efforts. A pioneering benchmarking consortium was chartered at KSC in January 1994. The consortium known as the Kennedy Benchmarking Clearinghouse (KBC), is a collaborative effort of NASA and all major KSC contractors. The charter of this consortium is to facilitate effective benchmarking, and leverage the resulting quality improvements across KSC. The KBC acts as a resource with experienced facilitators and a proven process. One of the initial actions of the KBC was to develop a holistic methodology for Center-wide benchmarking. This approach to Benchmarking integrates the best features of proven benchmarking models (i.e., Camp, Spendolini, Watson, and Balm). This cost-effective alternative to conventional Benchmarking approaches has provided a foundation for consistent benchmarking at KSC through the development of common terminology, tools, and techniques. Through these efforts a foundation and infrastructure has been built which allows short duration benchmarking studies yielding results gleaned from world class partners that can be readily implemented. The KBC has been recognized with the Silver Medal Award (in the applied research category) from the International Benchmarking Clearinghouse.
In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem of the lifetime of Li-ion batteries, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the battery pack. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, one must possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Using derived models of the current and future system behavior, a model-based prognostics approach can be implemented as a solution to the prediction problem. As more and more autonomous electric vehicles progressively emerge in our daily life, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systems/subsystems. Batteries, power electronics conditioning systems, and motors are integrated to form the powertrain in electric vehicles; one of the most critical systems. In the case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is critical for safety, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastropheThis presentation covers a physics-based modeling approach implemented for case studies in capacitor and battery prognostics which are an integral part of an electrical powertrain system. The general approach of model-based prognostics will be examined as a potential solution for safety critical problems related to battery state of charge and state of health.
Stress is an integral element of the operational conditions experienced by combat medics. The effects of stress can compromise the performance of combat medics who must reach and treat their comrades under often threatening circumstances. Examples of these effects include tunnel vision, loss of motor control, and diminished hearing, which can result in an inability to perceive further danger, satisfactorily treat the casualty, and communicate with others. While many training programs strive to recreate this stress to aid in the experiential learning process, stress inducement may not always be feasible or desired. In addition, live simulations are not always a practical, convenient, and repeatable method of training. Instead, presenting situational training on a personal computer is proposed as an effective training platform in which the effects of stress can be addressed in a different way. We explore the cognitive and motor effects of stress, as well as the benefits of training for mitigating these effects in real life. While many training applications focus on inducing stress in order to "condition" the stress response, the author explores the possibilities of modeling stress to produce a similar effect. Can presenting modeled effects of stress help prepare or inoculate soldiers for stressful situations in which they must perform at a high level? This paper investigates feasibility of modeling stress and describes the preliminary design considerations of a combat medic training system that utilizes this method of battlefield preparation.
A variational approach is used to model the moisture content and distribution profiles which cause swelling in polymers and composites which are used as aircraft structural components. The moisture intrusion stems from humidity, which makes the problem one of diffusion of mass from the environment into a semiinfinite plate with a given diffusion coefficient and thickness. Lagrangian, ordinary differential equations are defined for the mass diffusion, including driving force, mass potential and volume dissipation expressions. Account is taken of the effects of stress on diffusivity, including the dilatational stress caused by inhomogeneous swelling of the material. It is noted that material near the top and bottom of a part undergoes the most swelling, and the evolution of moisture diffusion in the materials is traced. Finally, experimental data are used to define differential equations for predicting the final moisture distribution within the material.
In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.
The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM).
A unified numerical method for the integration of stiff time dependent constitutive equations is presented. The solution process is directly applied to a constitutive model proposed by Bodner. The theory confronts time dependent inelastic behavior coupled with both isotropic hardening and directional hardening behaviors. Predicted stress-strain responses from this model are compared to experimental data from cyclic tests on uniaxial specimens. An algorithm is developed for the efficient integration of the Bodner flow equation. A comparison is made with the Euler integration method. An analysis of computational time is presented for the three algorithms.
A key problem in model checking open systems is environment modeling (i.e., representing the behavior of the execution context of the system under analysis). Software systems are fundamentally open since their behavior is dependent on patterns of invocation of system components and values defined outside the system but referenced within the system. Whether reasoning about the behavior of whole programs or about program components, an abstract model of the environment can be essential in enabling sufficiently precise yet tractable verification. In this paper, we describe an approach to generating environments of Java program fragments. This approach integrates formally specified assumptions about environment behavior with sound abstractions of environment implementations to form a model of the environment. The approach is implemented in the Bandera Environment Generator (BEG) which we describe along with our experience using BEG to reason about properties of several non-trivial concurrent Java programs.
NASA’s Europa Lander mission is to search for biosignatures on Europa based on in-situ science using a lander architecture. This mission presents a set of challenges that requires a high level of autonomy on the lander system, leading to the need for a new operational paradigm that supports better collaboration and coordination between the lander and the ground operations team. M\&S is used for both designing the onboard system-level autonomy and the ground operations paradigm that allows effective and efficient collaboration and coordination between the lander and the ground operations team. In this paper, M\&S as applied to the design of new mission and operational concepts will be discussed. At its current early stage of the mission development for Europa Lander, the M\&S is used to explore different mission concepts and gain insights for design (formative) rather than to verify and validate fully designed mission concepts quantitatively (summative). Organically, we established a new approach to mission and operational concept exploration using high-fidelity modeling and simulation. M\&S has been an integral part of the approach of defining constraints and assertions, designing mission concepts, assessing (i.e., simulating them), and discovering insights, which feeds back to the definition an design steps. This organically-established approach provided important benefits to the project at its early phase of the development by enabling the project team to be able to build shared understanding of impacts from design characteristics, constraints, and their interactions on the mission performance.