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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring (Final Report)

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report Q3FY21 - High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO 2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model (Update)

This report provides a brief description on the use of the Seal_Flux computer program developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). The Seal_Flux code simulates the flow of CO 2 through a low permeability rock horizon or seal formation overlying the storage reservoir into which CO 2 is injected. A two-phase, relative permeability approach with Darcy’s law is used for one-dimensional (1D) flow computations of CO 2 through the horizon in the vertical direction. The code also allows the simulation of time-dependent processes that can influence such flow. However, as part of its design, Seal_Flux is what can be termed a “reduced-order model” (ROM) and is not intended as a full-functioning flow code. The theory and simulation in the code is streamlined and directed towards the implementation of Monte Carlo risk analyses of CO 2 transport or as termed in this context as “leakage.” While presented in this report as a stand-alone tool, the Seal_Flux code is intended to function in the future as one of several models as part of an integrated, systems-level model of CO 2 storage performance. Finally, the code is written in Python 3.10 to provide an open framework for further development by others and to assist in linking the code with other modules in an integrated assessment model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Transformation Pathways Across Major Economies

This paper aims at providing an overview of the transformation pathways for the seven largest greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting regions and countries in the world, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2oC as compared to pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the iterative process by which global integrated assessment models (IAMs) initiated discussions by suggesting boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for different regions and countries. The carbon budgets subsequently agreed upon were then used in eleven different regional and national energy-economy models and IAMs for deriving low-carbon pathways in line with a well-below-2oC world. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting regional and national pathways, and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them.

Schaeffer, Roberto↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Introduction and Overview

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focuses on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment models and a simple climate model. These SLCF reductions reduced global temperatures by 0.18–0.26 °C in 2050 across the models for central climate parameters, with methane being the dominant contributor. The incremental impact of SLCF-focused reductions is much smaller when combined with a broader climate policy. Individual modeling groups examined the health benefits of air pollutant reductions, climate policy co-benefits, and quantified market impacts from air pollutant damages. Model structure and set-up impact on results are discussed along with areas for future work.

Smith, Steven J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization

Energy system transformation scenarios satisfying particular climate stabilization objectives, such as 2°C, suggest that a wide range of fossil energy outcomes could be consistent with such objectives. The underlying drivers of variability in these outcomes cannot, however, be easily separated. This paper attempts to shed light on such drivers using a single, state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model (GCAM) to evaluate the energy system implications of climate stabilization near 2°C. We focus specifically on the role of fossil primary energy through midcentury under different assumptions about carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy supply. In our scenarios, coal and natural gas primary energy are most sensitive to the availability of CCS, with bioenergy supply having a secondary impact on these sources. Looking across primary energy sources, we find that primary energy from coal declines by midcentury relative to 2015 in all GCAM mitigation scenarios considered here, whereas primary energy from natural gas and oil increases by midcentury relative to 2015 in most of the scenarios in which CCS is available. We explain these results in terms of fundamental energy-economic relationships and discuss the implications of these findings for broader energy policy and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy System Transitions and Low-Emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and United States

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to submit long-term, low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Republic of Korea and the USA. The study uses country-level energy–economy and integrated assessment models (IAMs) that incorporate detailed and disaggregated representations of the energy demand and supply systems that are difficult to capture in global IAMs. Models were used to explore low-carbon pathways up to 2050, providing insights in their implications for country emissions, energy system restructuring, energy–economy indicators and system costs. The analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

Fragkos, Panagiotis↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Energy Storage in the Uptake of Renewable Energy: A Model Comparison Approach

The power sector needs to ensure a rapid transition towards a low-carbon energy system to avoid the dangerous consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. Storage technologies are a promising option to provide the power system with the flexibility required when intermittent renewables are present in the electricity generation mix. This paper focuses on the role of electricity storage in energy systems with high shares of renewable sources. The study encompasses a model comparison approach where four models (GENeSYS-MOD, MUSE, NATEM, and urbs - MX) are used to analyse the storage uptake in North America. The analysis addresses the conditions affecting storage uptake in each country and its dependence on resource availability, technology costs, and public policies. Results show that storage may promote emissions reduction at lower costs when renewable mandates are in place whereas in presence of carbon taxes, renewables may compete with other low-carbon options. The study also highlights the main modelling approach shortcomings in the modelling of electricity storage in integrated assessment models.

electricity storage↗
DOE OSTI2022

The energy system transformation needed to achieve the US long-term strategy

The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States long-term strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland. Allen Fawcett, James McFarland, and Morgan Browning are economists at the Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Economics Branch. Claire Henly is White House Fellow at the Office of the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. Nathan Hultman is the Director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗