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142 records · Page 8

Centrality dependence of Lévy-stable two-pion Bose-Einstein correlations in $\sqrt{𝑠{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV Au + Au collisions

The PHENIX experiment measured the centrality dependence of two-pion Bose-Einstein correlation functions in $\sqrt{𝑠{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV Au + Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The data are well represented by Lévy-stable source distributions. The extracted source parameters are the correlation-strength parameter 𝜆, the Lévy index of stability 𝛼, and the Lévy-scale parameter 𝑅 as a function of transverse mass 𝑚 𝑇 and centrality. The 𝜆⁡(𝑚 𝑇 ) parameter is constant at larger values of 𝑚 𝑇 , but decreases as 𝑚 𝑇 decreases. The Lévy-scale parameter 𝑅⁡(𝑚 𝑇 ) decreases with 𝑚 𝑇 and exhibits proportionality to the length scale of the nuclear overlap region. The Lévy exponent 𝛼⁡(𝑚 𝑇 ) is independent of 𝑚 𝑇 within uncertainties in each investigated centrality bin, but shows a clear centrality dependence. At all centralities, the Lévy exponent 𝛼 is significantly different from that of Gaussian (𝛼 = 2) or Cauchy (𝛼 = 1) source distributions. Comparisons to the predictions of Monte-Carlo simulations of resonance-decay chains show that, in all but the most peripheral centrality class (50%–60%), the obtained results are inconsistent with the measurements, unless a significant reduction of the in-medium mass of the 𝜂′ meson is included. Finally, in each centrality class, the best value of the in-medium 𝜂′ mass is compared to the mass of the 𝜂 meson, as well as to several theoretical predictions that consider restoration of U 𝐴⁢ (1) symmetry in hot hadronic matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improving the laser performance of ion beam sputtered dielectric thin films through the suppression of nanoscale defects by employing a xenon sputtering gas

Laser damage-prone precursors in high index materials such as hafnia are believed to be the primary limiter in the performance of dielectric multilayer films to advance ultra-high power and energy laser applications. Removing or suppressing these precursors is the key to fabricating laser damage resistant thin films for the enabling technologies. Early work has revealed that nanobubbles formed by entrapped argon (Ar) working gas in ion beam sputtering (IBS) produced hafnia films are primarily responsible for the onset of laser damage upon exposure to UV, ns-laser pulses. In this study, we demonstrate that the UV ns-laser damage onset of IBS produced hafnia films can be improved to 3.1 +/- 0.2 J/cm 2 by substituting the conventional Ar working gas with xenon (Xe), a nearly 1 J/cm 2 increase from that of the Ar produced hafnia films. In addition to the suppression of the overall point-defect density of the hafnia films, the reduction of the Xe entrapment eliminates the nanobubbles and the generation of plasmas that initiates the laser damage. The defect suppression and its correlation to the increase in laser damage threshold is revealed by the combined analysis of Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy, electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and laser damage testing. Monte Carlo simulations suggest a much smaller entrapment of Xe gas by comparison to Ar, which is attributed to the significant difference in the energy of the reflected neutrals (3X) which are likely to be implanted. These results provide an effective process route with a fundamental understanding for producing high laser damage resistant dielectric films for high power and high energy laser applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗

Mapping Support for Targeted Critical Minerals Exploration and Extraction

The United States’ dependency on imported minerals poses significant risks to economic stability and national security due to potential supply disruptions. Recognizing the strategic importance of critical minerals, the Department of Energy (DOE) emphasizes the need for a secure and resilient supply chain to support emissions reduction, technology development, and capitalization on clean energy opportunities. The DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC), in collaboration with the Office of Policy (OP), addresses these vulnerabilities by focusing on upstream domestic critical minerals production, balancing extraction with social and environmental goals, including conservation, environmental justice, and respect for Tribal sovereignty. This report showcases a collaborative effort involving Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map mineral development potential along with key social and environmental datasets. A geographical information system (GIS)-based web map application was developed as a preliminary tool for environmental analysis, integrating 158 geospatial data layers such as critical habitat, land ownership, economic indicators, and environmental concerns. Data were sourced from agencies like the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and USGS and processed using GIS technology to enhance visualization and analysis. The proposed analysis framework categorizes areas into high, mid, and low concern based on withdrawn lands, special status species, the Economic Development Capacity Index (EDCI) Mining Composite Index, and the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST). While the application provides broad visualizations, it is not a substitute for detailed environmental reviews required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Users must conduct further analyses and engage with tribal entities and other stakeholders for comprehensive planning. A case study of the Idaho Cobalt Belt (ICB) in Lemhi County, Idaho, has been provided in the report to illustrate the tool's practical use. This report introduces a GIS application and framework to support stakeholders in identifying and prioritizing areas for critical mineral exploration, promoting secure supply chains, and advancing the nation's energy independence through responsible resource stewardship.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TA-16-306: A Plastics Components Development Facility (Volumes 1 & 2)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Los Alamos Field Office (Field Office), has prepared final documentation for the resolution of adverse effects to Building 306 in Technical Area (TA) 16 at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). This documentation is being submitted to the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO). TA-16-306 was determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (Register) in 1995 in the report, TA-16 Heating System Replacement (LA-CP-95-0180). TA-16- 306 was identified as an excess property to be decontaminated, decommissioned, and demolished by the LANL Footprint Reduction Program in fiscal year 2021, an adverse effect to Register eligible building 16-306 requiring mitigation. To bring a resolution to the adverse effects to Building TA-16-306, the Field Office initiated consultation with the SHPO on December 4, 2017. The New Mexico Historic Preservation Division concurred with the mitigation actions outlined in the Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office, the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office, and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning Management of Historic Properties of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (PA) in correspondence dated January 30, 2018. The PA states in Appendix D.2.A that adverse effects to Register-eligible buildings and structures will be resolved according to the procedures defined in A Plan for the Management of the Cultural Heritage at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico (CRMP) (LA-UR-19-21590, formerly LA-UR-15-27624) and within the PA itself. Volume 2 contains a collection of photos of building TA-16-306 with index.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Amplicon Sequencing Assessment to Measure Microbial Community Response from Heavy Metal Contaminated Soils in Savannah River site, Tims Branch watershed

Long-term presence of heavy metal contamination in soils is correlated with changes in microbial community structures and can lead to the reduction of indigenous species. Tolerance to soil heavy metal toxicity varies among different microbial communities. It remains unclear whether long term effects caused by metal perturbations are associated with soil microbial community dysregulation in Tims Branch watershed. Research Questions: Does heavy metal contamination in Tims Branch soils decrease microbial species diversity significantly compared to non-contaminated soils? Does the species richness decrease in contaminated samples? between samples? Is diversity in low, mid and high contamination soils significantly different compared to control samples? Hypothesis: The relative abundance and diversity of species are significantly altered in soils which are contaminated with heavy metals in the Tims Branch watershed. Objectives: Use amplicon sequencing technology along with bioinformatics to compare bacterial communities between four sites in Tims Branch watershed. Evaluate the percent relative abundance and diversity across the site. Conclusions: All bacterial communities exposed to different heavy metal concentrations were dominated by four major groups (Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi and Verrucomicrobia). The dominant phyla Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Chloroflexi accounted for 61 % of the relative abundance. Soil bacterial α-diversity, expressed as observed species richness metric and Shannon's diversity index, was the highest in sample location four (high contamination). The lowest observed was at the control location. Species richness increased when concentrations of heavy metals were localized, inferring that the metals can alter microbial community structure. PERMANOVA analysis between contaminated groups tested significant using the Adonis (F (4,29) =1.9712; p < 0.001). There is a 20 percent variation explained between groups (R2 = 0.214). This analysis proves to be beneficial in detecting microbial communities altered by contaminated soils. Moreover, certain concentrations of heavy metals can alter microbial community structures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Novel Algae Technology for CO2 Utilization

The United States, the world’s largest energy user and second largest CO2 emitter, is heavily dependent on fossil energy. In 2014, U.S. coal burning utilities emitted ~1562 million (MM) tons/year (TPY) of CO2 into the atmosphere, accounting for 76% of the total US power sector emissions1. Hence, reducing the CO2 emission footprint from coal plants is widely viewed as a key element in mitigating global warming. Despite significant interest, implementation of CO2 capture technologies has been constrained by the high capture cost which significantly increases the total cost of electricity. Not only is capturing CO2 with traditional technologies expensive, but generally the CO2 has little value and additional expense must be incurred for sequestration. This project funded by a SBIR grant from the U.S. D.O.E. to Helios-NRG in collaboration with the State University of New York at Buffalo (UB) and Membrane Technology and Research Inc. (MTR) aimed to develop a novel, algae based technology to capture CO2 from the effluent of coal-based power plants and convert it to renewable bio-fuels and higher value co-products such as animal feed and nutraceuticals with the potential to enable a substantial reduction in the net cost of carbon capture. The Phase 2 project was aimed at further demonstrating the technical feasibility of the proposed multi-stage continuous (MSC) flow CO2 capture system and the generation of high-value co-products to offset the CO2 capture cost. The project was completed and the project objectives were met and exceeded. A first-of-a-kind integrated, laboratory scale MSC process unit was fabricated and tested in a greenhouse. The tests were conducted with the preferred algae species identified in Phase I and simulated flue gas containing contaminants at levels typically present in the post flue gas desulfurization (FGD) stream, including ~12% CO2, acid gas (SOX, NOX), and a large number of heavy metals. The tests were successful and demonstrated a 25g/m2/day seasonal average algae productivity and an 80% CO2 capture efficiency. Two new algae species were identified for high-value nutraceutical production. Studies to improve growth rate and nutraceutical content of these algae species were performed and a pathway for further improvements was identified. A new dewatering technology called DeAqua was further advanced. Significant improvement in the performance index was achieved. The anti-fouling membrane was developed and fabricated into a module. The fabricated membrane module was tested with algae slurry and demonstrated improved fouling resistant properties, that can potentially reduce the cost and energy of the critical dewatering step. Test data were used to simulate operation of the overall process. The preliminary economic analysis was updated and modelled based on a 5000-acre algae farm. To the extent possible, the financial and operating assumptions used were the same as those used in the DOE’s 2022 projections for algae technology for CO2 capture and utilization. The results showed the proposed technology’s potential to significantly reduce the cost of CO2 capture compared to current options and that the high value products generated from the CO2 captured can make a step change in the cost of carbon capture. Plans to advance the technology to Phase 2B were developed and potential end-user partners were identified.

Maloney, James↗

Acoustic Properties of Aerogels: Current Status and Prospects

Noise reduction remains an important priority in the modern society, in particular, for urban areas and highly populated cities. Insulation of buildings and transport systems such as cars, trains, and airplanes has accelerated the need to develop advanced materials. Various porous materials, such as commercially available foams and granular and fibrous materials, are commonly used for sound mitigating applications. In this review, a special class of advanced porous materials, aerogels, is examined, and an overview of the current experimental and theoretical status of their acoustic properties is provided. Aerogels can be composed of inorganic matter, synthetic or natural polymers, as well as organic/inorganic composites and hybrids. Aerogels are highly porous nanostructured materials with a large number of meso‐ and small macropores; the mechanisms of sound absorption partly differ from those of traditional porous absorbers possessing large macropores. The understanding of the acoustic properties of aerogels is far from being complete, and experimental results remain scattered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the aerogel provides a complex three‐dimensional architecture ideally suited for promising high‐performance materials for acoustic mitigation systems. This is in addition to the numerous other desirable properties that include low density, low thermal conductivity, and low refractive index.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Process Interactions Can Change Process Ranking in a Coupled Complex System Under Process Model and Parametric Uncertainty

For a complex hydrologic system with multiple processes and process interactions, global sensitivity analysis is often used to identify important or influential parameters for model development and improvement. The identification is complicated by process model uncertainty, when a system process can be represented by multiple process models. This study develops a new total-effect process sensitivity index to identify influential processes under model uncertainty. This is done by extending Sobol's total-effect parameter sensitivity index for one system model to total-effect process sensitivity index for multiple system models to account for uncertainty in process models and model parameters. The total-effect process sensitivity index includes not only the first-order process sensitivity index for measuring the importance of individual processes but also higher-order indices that account for process interactions. The total-effect process sensitivity index can identify an influential process that itself and its interactions with other processes influence a model output. Here, the total-effect process sensitivity index is applied to two numerical examples: (a) Sobol's G*-functions with analytical solutions of first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices, and (b) groundwater flow models with interactions between recharge, geology, and snowmelt processes. The second evaluation shows that, due to second-order and higher-order process interactions, the first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices give different process ranking. It is thus necessary to estimate both first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices to appreciate the difference between the first-order impact of a process alone and the overall total-effect impact of the process itself and its interactions with other processes on a model output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Digital Transformation for the Existing Fleet: Where to Start?

To remain economically viable in today’s electricity marketplace, nuclear power plants are replacing old analog equipment with modern digital tools. Having information available in an electronic format allows most work processes to become more efficient by automating simple, time-consuming tasks. However, with thousands of routine work processes performed every day, it can be difficult for the plants to know where to begin. We partnered with a nuclear utility to develop a novel assessment tool that measures seven health indicators for each work process performed, providing a rapid digital status report of the plant. The assessment tool is inexpensive and user-friendly, administered remotely, and automatically customized to each employee. Data from 167 employees representing different perspectives were analyzed to identify optimal candidates for digital initiatives that yield the highest payback for increased process efficiencies. We ranked by a priority index to ensure that processes with a good combination of time savings and digital opportunity were at the top. The focus was on determining a maximum investment to ensure that the cost savings from these initiatives are positive over a specified period. We identified potential cost savings of $2.6m, $1.3m and $1.2m for our top priority processes. By using our novel assessment tool to determine the digital status of the plant’s work processes, they were provided with a starting point for target candidates that would most benefit from a digital initiative. Our analysis helps stakeholders understand the financial impact of digital initiatives and identify maximum investment amounts when seeking technical solutions.

assessment↗

A computationally-efficient method for flamelet calculations

A new open-source code for the simulation of the diffusion flamelet equations is proposed. Emphasis is placed on using an approximate Jacobian to reduce the computational cost of the matrix operations. Performance of the proposed solvers is tested by performing flamelet calculations with kinetic mechanisms of varying sizes. For the unity Lewis number equations, the present iterative Newton solver using an approximate Jacobian greatly outperforms direct Newton solvers using exact Jacobians. The computation cost scales linearly with the number of species, leading to a reduction in solution times by two orders of magnitude for mechanisms containing thousands of species. The applicability of the Jacobian approximations to the solution of the non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations is assessed. The approximations are generally inadequate to solve the full non-unity Lewis number equations but can be used in some applications depending on the balance of terms in the flamelet equations. As an example, the flamelet solver is applied to the study of sooting tendencies in laminar co-flow diffusion flames where modified non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations, previously shown to accurately reproduce experimentally-measured Yield Sooting Indices (YSI), are solved. Here, the accelerated flamelet solver is well suited for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with large detailed kinetic mechanisms, tasks for which the computational cost was previously prohibitive.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Petrophysical and geomechanical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediments recovered from Alaska North Slope 2018 Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well

Knowledge of petrophysical and geomechanical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediments are essential for predicting reservoir response due to gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs. That information will be critical parameters for designing production well completion such as specification of depressurization pump, water storage tank, and mesh size of sand screen. In December 2018, Stratigraphic Test Well Hydrate-01 was drilled in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope as part of the technical planning effort for a future long-term production test by collaborative team of DOE/NETL, USGS, and MH21-S (Boswell et al., 2020, Collett et al., 2020, Okinaka et al., 2020). Data set of logging-while-drilling (LWD) were acquired (Haines et al., 2020, Suzuki et al., 2019) and core sampling depth was determined on-site.Side-wall pressure coring was conducted to recover gas hydrate-bearing sediments from two reservoir sections named Unit-B and Unit-D. A total of 34 cores were successfully recovered by 5 runs of a wire-line deployed pressure corer (CoreVault® System - Halliburton). Core analysis scheme of this project are shown in Figure 1. All cores were quenched in liquid nitrogen while at high pressure in the laboratory of Stratum Reservoir, LLC. at Anchorage (Figure 1, a)). And the cores were removed from the pressure corer autoclave with temperature support of dry ice and stored under liquid nitrogen at atmospheric pressure. 19 damaged cores were processed to index property measurements directly such as grain size, grain density. 4 of another 17 cores were depressurized and trimmed for making a plug to analyze petrophysical properties of host sediments. Unsteady-state permeability test was conducted to obtain relative water permeability to gas and core scale NMR T2 distribution measurement was performed for evaluating pore size distribution at Houston (Figure 1, b)). Remained high quality 13 cores were preserved with gas hydrate for advanced laboratory analysis. National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, as a part of the Japanese National Hydrate Research Program (MH21-S, funded by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry), received the samples at Sapporo, Japan for advanced core analysis. High-resolution X-ray CT was used to analyze the quality of the samples, which showed undisturbed lithological layers. Cores were lathed into cylindrical shape and distributed for multi property measurements (Figure 1, c)).<p>As a result, sediment from Unit-D is categorized as silty sand at ~37% porosity with ~80% gas hydrate saturation. An average hydration number n = 6.16 was measured by Raman spectroscopy. An average intrinsic permeability of ~400 mD and in situ effective permeability (with hydrate) on the order of ~10 mD. The Unit B recovered cores consisted of well sorted sand at ~40% porosity with ~95% gas hydrate saturation. An average intrinsic permeability of ~1 Darcy and in situ effective permeability on the order of ~30 mD was measured for the Unit B cores. There was a small permeability reduction due to porosity loss with increasing effective stress that simulated consolidation behavior along with depressurization in the highly permeable sandy sediment. The apparent minimum change in porosity and permeability may be caused by the low compressibility of quartz sand grains in the recovered cores. XRD and thermal conductivity analysis also suggested high quartz content. Triaxial compression tests established internal friction angles based on the Mohr-Coulomb's failure criterion, which are 40° for hydrate-bearing sediment and 29.8° for hydrate free sediment.</p>

Yoneda, Jun↗

Automated prediction of lattice parameters from X-ray powder diffraction patterns

A key step in the analysis of powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data is the accurate determination of unit-cell lattice parameters. This step often requires significant human intervention and is a bottleneck that hinders efforts towards automated analysis. This work develops a series of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs) trained to provide lattice parameter estimates for each crystal system. A mean absolute percentage error of approximately 10% is achieved for each crystal system, which corresponds to a 100- to 1000-fold reduction in lattice parameter search space volume. The models learn from nearly one million crystal structures contained within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database and the Cambridge Structural Database and, due to the nature of these two complimentary databases, the models generalize well across chemistries. A key component of this work is a systematic analysis of the effect of different realistic experimental non-idealities on model performance. It is found that the addition of impurity phases, baseline noise and peak broadening present the greatest challenges to learning, while zero-offset error and random intensity modulations have little effect. However, appropriate data modification schemes can be used to bolster model performance and yield reasonable predictions, even for data which simulate realistic experimental non-idealities. In order to obtain accurate results, a new approach is introduced which uses the initial machine learning estimates with existing iterative whole-pattern refinement schemes to tackle automated unit-cell solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗