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NASA NTRS2007

CMEs and Low Density Events in the Solar Wind

From time to time the density of the Solar Wind falls below unity for a day or so. Despite studies of these events, their cause has not been established. In the solar wind there are frequent rarefactions but these are much shallower than the ones we are discussing here. In particular any role that CMEs might play in forming more extreme rarefactions is not clear . We discuss 9 cases of extreme events, leading to sub-alfvenic flow and well observed by Wind, which occurred between 1999 and 2002, and look for corresponding CME events in the LASCO cotalog. The catalog gives a fitted speed , good out to 20 Rs ,as well as a speed lower down in the corona, and this is used to distinguish between a CME and an ICME. We find one of the events ,which was simulated by Usmanov et al.,cannot be associated with an ICME. The other eight events can plausibly be associated with fast ICMEs, identified by the prescence of bi-streaming electrons also seen by Wind SWE, and by other phenomena The implications of these observations are discussed but do not seem to be conclusive as to the cause of the extreme rarefactions.

Ogilvie, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

What We Have Learned About Clusters From a Decade of Arcsecond Resolution X-ray Observations

This talk will briefly review the main findings from Chandra high angular resolution observations of galaxy clusters, emphasizing results on cluster astrophysics. Chandra has discovered shock fronts in merging systems, providing information on the shock Mach number and velocity, and for best-observed shocks, constraining the microphysical properties of the intracluster medium (ICM). Cold fronts, a Chandra discovery, are ubiquitous both in merging clusters and in the cool ccres of relaxed systems. They reveal the structure and strength of the intracluster magnetic fields and constrain the ICM viscosity a combined with radio data, these observations also shed light on the production of ultra-relativistic particles that are known to coexist with thermal plasma. Finally, in nearly all cool cores, Chandra observes cavities in the ICM that are produced by the central AGN. All these phenomena will be extremely interesting for high-resolution SZ studies.

Markevitch, Maxim↗

NASA NTRS2012

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

scintillation↗

NASA NTRS2012

A New Method to Constrain Supernova Fractions Using X-ray Observations of Clusters of Galaxies

Supernova (SN) explosions enrich the intracluster medium (ICM) both by creating and dispersing metals. We introduce a method to measure the number of SNe and relative contribution of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and core-collapse supernovae (SNe cc) by directly fitting X-ray spectral observations. The method has been implemented as an XSPEC model called snapec. snapec utilizes a single-temperature thermal plasma code (apec) to model the spectral emission based on metal abundances calculated using the latest SN yields from SN Ia and SN cc explosion models. This approach provides a self-consistent single set of uncertainties on the total number of SN explosions and relative fraction of SN types in the ICM over the cluster lifetime by directly allowing these parameters to be determined by SN yields provided by simulations. We apply our approach to XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera (EPIC), Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS), and 200 ks simulated Astro-H observations of a cooling flow cluster, A3112.We find that various sets of SN yields present in the literature produce an acceptable fit to the EPIC and RGS spectra of A3112. We infer that 30.3% plus or minus 5.4% to 37.1% plus or minus 7.1% of the total SN explosions are SNe Ia, and the total number of SN explosions required to create the observed metals is in the range of (1.06 plus or minus 0.34) x 10(exp 9), to (1.28 plus or minus 0.43) x 10(exp 9), fromsnapec fits to RGS spectra. These values may be compared to the enrichment expected based on well-established empirically measured SN rates per star formed. The proportions of SNe Ia and SNe cc inferred to have enriched the ICM in the inner 52 kiloparsecs of A3112 is consistent with these specific rates, if one applies a correction for the metals locked up in stars. At the same time, the inferred level of SN enrichment corresponds to a star-to-gas mass ratio that is several times greater than the 10% estimated globally for clusters in the A3112 mass range.

Observations↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Integrated Computational Materials Engineering for Quantifying Performance Impacts of Microstructure and Defect Interactions in Powder Bed Fusion Parts

Powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) enables the creation of parts with complexity and functionality levels that were previously impossible with traditional manufacturing methods. By modifying the laser power, hatch spacing, or the numerous other processing parameters, the PBF process supports the production of a wide set of materials and geometries. However, that same process parameter design flexibility causes the process-design space of PBF to be massive and expensive to explore experimentally. Another challenge is quality variation across a build. As a part is being built, geometric variance between locations, such as at a thin-wall section vs. the bulk material, may cause the specified processing parameters to no longer be acceptable for producing defect-free printing. Furthermore, if the processing parameters deviate during the print process, it is difficult to assess if the part will still perform satisfactorily. Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) provides a way to understand and address these various challenges. This talk will present advancements in process-structure simulations of PBF at NASA Langley Research Center. The ability to simulate grain-scale PBF microstructures using the Physically Based Monte Carlo method will be demonstrated and compared to experimental measurements. Techniques for simulating three-dimensional lack-of-fusion and keyhole porosity defects based on the specific processing conditions and approaches for integrating the two porosity prediction techniques alongside the computational microstructure evolution models will be shown. Finally, the integration of simulated PBF microstructures, embedded process defects, and crystal plasticity finite element models to elucidate the interaction of porosity and microstructure on micromechanical fields will be demonstrated. These integrated techniques demonstrate an example of using ICME to relate processing to performance for PBF AM materials. With continued maturity, it is hoped that such ICME approaches will lead to next-generation computational-materials supported qualification and certification of AM parts.

Additive manufacturing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benchmark Problem for Autonomous Urban Air Mobility

This paper introduces a Community Benchmark Problem (CBP) for Intelligent Contingency Management (ICM) for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft. The CBP aims to provide a common framework for measuring and comparing the progress of autonomy solutions for UAM aircraft in handling emergency situations. The paper proposes a methodology for defining and quantifying five measures of complexity that capture the challenges and requirements of ICM for UAM: Mission, Environmental, Autonomy, Decision-Making, and Mission Fault. In addition, it proposes a methodology for defining and quantifying mission risk acceptability with the same goals: Contingency Management, Mission Success, Operational, Mission Redefinition, and Environmental. We describe how to use these measures to track progress of the development of ICM capability, as well as to create scenarios and evaluate the performance of different autonomy solutions.

autonomy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Community Benchmark Problem for Intelligent Contingency Management

autonomy↗

NASA NTRS2024

Automatic Detection of Large-scale Flux Ropes and Their Geoeffectiveness with a Machine-learning Approach

Detecting large-scale flux ropes (FRs) embedded in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and assessing their geoeffectiveness are essential, since they can drive severe space weather. At 1 au, these FRs have an average duration of 1 day. Their most common magnetic features are large, smoothly rotating magnetic fields. Their manual detection has become a relatively common practice over decades, although visual detection can be time-consuming and subject to observer bias. Our study proposes a pipeline that utilizes two supervised binary classification machine-learning models trained with solar wind magnetic properties to automatically detect large-scale FRs and additionally determine their geoeffectiveness. The first model is used to generate a list of autodetected FRs. Using the properties of the southward magnetic field, the second model determines the geoeffectiveness of FRs. Our method identifies 88.6% and 80% of large-scale ICMEs (duration 1day) observed at 1au by the Wind and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory missions, respectively. While testing with continuous solar wind data obtained from Wind, our pipeline detected 56 of the 64 large-scale ICMEs during the 2008–2014 period (recall = 0.875), but also many false positives (precision = 0.56), as we do not take into account any additional solar wind properties other than the magnetic properties. We find an accuracy of 0.88 when estimating the geoeffectiveness of the autodetected FRs using our method. Thus, in space-weather nowcasting and forecasting at L1 or any planetary missions, our pipeline can be utilized to offer a first-order detection of large-scale FRs and their geoeffectiveness.

Sanchita Pal↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fluctuation dynamo in a weakly collisional plasma

The turbulent amplification of cosmic magnetic fields depends upon the material properties of the host plasma. In many hot, dilute astrophysical systems, such as the intracluster medium (ICM) of galaxy clusters, the rarity of particle–particle collisions allows departures from local thermodynamic equilibrium. These departures – pressure anisotropies – exert anisotropic viscous stresses on the plasma motions that inhibit their ability to stretch magnetic-field lines. We present an extensive numerical study of the fluctuation dynamo in a weakly collisional plasma using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations endowed with a field-parallel viscous (Braginskii) stress. When the stress is limited to values consistent with a pressure anisotropy regulated by firehose and mirror instabilities, the Braginskii-MHD dynamo largely resembles its MHD counterpart, particularly when the magnetic field is dynamically weak. If instead the parallel viscous stress is left unabated – a situation relevant to recent kinetic simulations of the fluctuation dynamo and, we argue, to the early stages of the dynamo in a magnetized ICM – the dynamo changes its character, amplifying the magnetic field while exhibiting many characteristics reminiscent of the saturated state of the large-Prandtl-number ( ${Pm}\gtrsim {1}$ ) MHD dynamo. We construct an analytic model for the Braginskii-MHD dynamo in this regime, which successfully matches simulated dynamo growth rates and magnetic-energy spectra. A prediction of this model, confirmed by our numerical simulations, is that a Braginskii-MHD plasma without pressure-anisotropy limiters will not support a dynamo if the ratio of perpendicular and parallel viscosities is too small. This ratio reflects the relative allowed rates of field-line stretching and mixing, the latter of which promotes resistive dissipation of the magnetic field. Finally, in all cases that do exhibit a viable dynamo, the generated magnetic field is organized into folds that persist into the saturated state and bias the chaotic flow to acquire a scale-dependent spectral anisotropy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-organization in collisionless, high- β turbulence

The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, as a collisional fluid model that remains in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), have long been used to describe turbulence in myriad space and astrophysical plasmas. Yet, the vast majority of these plasmas, from the solar wind to the intracluster medium (ICM) of galaxy clusters, are only weakly collisional at best, meaning that significant deviations from LTE are not only possible but common. Recent studies have demonstrated that the kinetic physics inherent to this weakly collisional regime can fundamentally transform the evolution of such plasmas across a wide range of scales. Here, we explore the consequences of pressure anisotropy and Larmor-scale instabilities for collisionless, β $\gg$ 1, turbulence, focusing on the role of a self-organizational effect known as ‘magneto-immutability’. We describe this self-organization analytically through a high-β, reduced ordering of the Chew–Goldberger–Low-MHD (CGL-MHD) equations, finding that it is a robust inertial-range effect that dynamically suppresses magnetic-field-strength fluctuations, anisotropic-pressure stresses and dissipation due to heat fluxes. As a result, the turbulent cascade of Alfvénic fluctuations continues below the putative viscous scale to form a robust, nearly conservative, MHD-like inertial range. These findings are confirmed numerically via Landau-fluid CGL-MHD turbulence simulations that employ a collisional closure to mimic the effects of microinstabilities. We find that microinstabilities occupy a small (~5%) volume-filling fraction of the plasma, even when the pressure anisotropy is driven strongly towards its instability thresholds. We discuss these results in the context of recent predictions for ion-vs-electron heating in low-luminosity accretion flows and observations implying suppressed viscosity in ICM turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computational design of materials for nuclear reactors

Computational design for fission reactor materials is ready to accelerate the development and qualification of nuclear materials. This review is primarily aimed at computational materials scientists that seek to apply ICME to the development of fission reactor materials. We summarize reactor materials and technology, discuss reactor material development and qualification today, show how ICME is being applied to the unique requirements of reactor materials, and provide a future vision.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The history of metal enrichment traced by X-ray observations of high-redshift galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT We present the analysis of deep X-ray observations of 10 massive galaxy clusters at redshifts 1.05 < z < 1.71, with the primary goal of measuring the metallicity of the intracluster medium (ICM) at intermediate radii, to better constrain models of the metal enrichment of the intergalactic medium. The targets were selected from X-ray and Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect surveys, and observed with both the XMM–Newton and Chandra satellites. For each cluster, a precise gas mass profile was extracted, from which the value of r500 could be estimated. This allows us to define consistent radial ranges over which the metallicity measurements can be compared. In general, the data are of sufficient quality to extract meaningful metallicity measurements in two radial bins, r < 0.3r500 and 0.3 < r/r500 < 1.0. For the outer bin, the combined measurement for all 10 clusters, Z/Z⊙ = 0.21 ± 0.09, represents a substantial improvement in precision over previous results. This measurement is consistent with, but slightly lower than, the average metallicity of 0.315 solar measured at intermediate-to-large radii in low-redshift clusters. Combining our new high-redshift data with the previous low-redshift results allows us to place the tightest constraints to date on models of the evolution of cluster metallicity at intermediate radii. Adopting a power-law model of the form Z ∝ (1 + z)γ, we measure a slope $\gamma = -0.5^{+0.4}_{-0.3}$, consistent with the majority of the enrichment of the ICM having occurred at very early times and before massive clusters formed, but leaving open the possibility that some additional enrichment in these regions may have occurred since a redshift of 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The alignment between brightest cluster galaxies and host clusters

The alignment between the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) and host clusters can reveal the mystery of the formation and evolution of galaxy clusters. We measure cluster orientations in optical based on the projected distribution of member galaxies and in X-ray by fitting the morphology of intracluster medium (ICM). Cluster orientations determined in the two wavelengths are generally consistent. The orientation alignment between BCGs and host clusters is confirmed and more significant than in previous works. We find that BCGs are more aligned with cluster orientations measured in X-ray than those from optical data. Clusters with a brighter BCG generally show a stronger alignment. We argue that the detected redshift evolution of the alignment is probably caused by observational bias rather than intrinsic evolution. The alignment is not related to the ellipticity of BCGs, and the richness, ellipticity, and dynamical state of host clusters. As a result, the strong alignment between BCGs and the morphology of ICMs may be the consequence of the co-evolution between the central massive galaxy and host clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic-ray confinement in radio bubbles by micromirrors

Radio bubbles, ubiquitous features of the intracluster medium around active galactic nuclei, are known to rise buoyantly for multiple scale heights through the intracluster medium (ICM). It is an open question how the bubbles can retain their high-energy cosmic-ray content over such distances. We propose that the enhanced scattering of cosmic rays due to micromirrors generated in the ICM is a viable mechanism for confining the cosmic rays within bubbles and can qualitatively reproduce their morphology. We discuss the observational implications of such a model of cosmic-ray confinement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovery of a z ∼ 0.8 ultra steep spectrum radio halo in the MeerKAT-South Pole Telescope Survey

Radio haloes are diffuse synchrotron sources that trace the turbulent intracluster medium (ICM) of galaxy clusters. However, their origin remains unknown. Two main formation models have been proposed: the hadronic model, in which relativistic electrons are continuously injected by cosmic-ray protons; and the leptonic turbulent re-acceleration model, where cluster mergers re-energize electrons in situ. A key discriminant between the two models would be the existence of ultra-steep spectrum radio haloes (USSRHs), which can only be produced through turbulent re-acceleration. Here, we report the discovery of an USSRH in the galaxy cluster SPT-CLJ2337–5942 at redshift $z = 0.78$ in the MeerKAT-South Pole Telescope 100 deg$^2$ UHF (0.58–1.09 GHz) survey. This discovery is noteworthy for two primary reasons: it is the highest redshift USSRH system to date; and the close correspondence of the radio emission with the thermal ICM as traced by Chandra X-ray observations, further supporting the leptonic re-acceleration model. The halo is underluminous for its mass, consistent with a minor merger origin, which produces steep-spectrum, lower luminosity haloes. This result demonstrates the power of wide-field, high-fidelity, low-frequency ($\lesssim 1$ GHz) surveys like the MeerKAT-SPT 100 deg$^2$ programme to probe the origin and evolution of radio haloes over cosmic time, ahead of the Square Kilometre Array.

X-rays: galaxies↗