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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Development and assessment of hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning based potential for silicene with state-of-the-art models

We develop a new interatomic force field for Silicene, a 2D material with a buckled hexagonal lattice structure with high polymorphism. We introduce new parameterizations of a Tersoff model using a hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning (RL) methodology coupled with a continuous Monte Carlo Tree Search optimization. Our model significantly outperforms existing methods by enhancing the accuracy of predictions for the structural and thermodynamic properties of seven silicene polymorphs-including structure, energy, equation of state, elasticity, and phonon dispersion-when compared to established models. We further make a comprehensive comparison of the various models in predicting the mechanical and thermal properties of silicene. We trace the origin of the improved performance to the description of the angular dependence in the bond-order term, suggesting that modifying the angular terms in short-range models is essential to capture the structural diversity in low dimensional systems.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Framework Combining Model-Based and Data-Driven Methods for Hierarchical Decentralized Robust Dynamic State Estimation

This paper combines model-based and data-driven methods to develop a hierarchical, decentralized, robust dynamic state estimator (DSE). A two-level hierarchy is proposed, where the lower level consists of robust, model-based, decentralized DSEs. The state estimates sent from the lower level are received at the upper level, where they are filtered by a robust data-driven DSE after a principled sparse selection. This selection allows us to shrink the dimension of the problem at the upper level and hence significantly speed up the computational time. The proposed hybrid framework does not depend on the centralized infrastructure of the control centers; thus it can be completely embedded into the wide-area measurement systems. This feature will ultimately facilitate the placement of hierarchical decentralized control schemes at the phasor data concentrator locations. Also, the network model is not necessary; thus, a topology processor is not required. Finally, there is no assumption on the dynamics of the electric loads. The proposed framework is tested on the 2,000-bus synthetic Texas system, and shown to be capable of reconstructing the dynamic states of the generators with high accuracy, and of forecasting in the advent of missing data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gauged global strings

We investigate the string solutions and cosmological implications of the gauge U(1) Z × global U(1) PQ model. With two hierarchical symmetry-breaking scales, the model exhibits three distinct string solutions: a conventional global string, a global string with a heavy core, and a gauge string as a bound state of the two global strings. This model reveals rich phenomenological implications in cosmology. During the evolution of the universe, these three types of strings can form a Y-junction configuration. Intriguingly, when incorporating this model with the QCD axion framework, the heavy-core global strings emit more axion particles compared to conventional axion cosmic strings due to their higher tension. This radiation significantly enhances the QCD axion dark matter abundance, thereby opening up the QCD axion mass window. Consequently, axions with masses exceeding ~ 10 −5 eV have the potential to constitute the whole dark matter abundance. Furthermore, in contrast to conventional gauge strings, the gauge strings in this model exhibit a distinctive behavior by radiating axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Weak lensing trispectrum and Kurt-spectra

We introduce two kurt-spectra to probe fourth-order statistics of weak lensing convergence maps. Using state-of-the-art numerical simulations, we study the shapes of these kurt-spectra as a function of source redshifts and smoothing angular scales. We employ a pseudo-Cℓ approach to estimate the spectra from realistic convergence maps in the presence of an observational mask and noise for stage-IV large-scale structure surveys. We compare these results against theoretical predictions calculated using the FFTLog formalism, and find that a simple nonlinear clustering model — the hierarchical ansatz — can reproduce the numerical trends for the kurt-spectra in the nonlinear regime. In addition, we provide estimators for beyond fourth-order spectra where no definitive analytical results are available, and present corresponding results from numerical simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trends in spatial correlations, two-phase coexistence, and criticality in a class of type-2 Schloegl models for autocatalysis

A class of type-2 Schloegl models is considered for particles on a square lattice with variable-range cooperativity. These models involve: (i) spontaneous particle annihilation at rate p; (ii) autocatalytic particle creation at unoccupied sites (i, j) with n ⩾ 2 particles within a specified neighborhood, Ω 𝑁 (i, j), of sites at rate $k_n$ = $\frac{^{(^n_2)}}{_{(^N_2)}}$ = $\frac{n{(n-1)}}{_{N(N-1)}}$; and (iii) possible spontaneous particle creation at unoccupied sites at “small” rate ɛ ⩾ 0. In some cases, Ω 𝑁 just includes all symmetry-equivalent sites at a single specific distance 𝑑 (in units of lattice constants) from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = 1 (nearest-neighbor sites) where 𝑁 = 4, or 𝑑 = √5 (or √13 or…) where 𝑁 = 8. In other cases, Ω 𝑁 includes sites multiple distances from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = {1,√2}, where 𝑁 = 8. Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation reveals that these models exhibit a nonequilibrium discontinuous phase transition between high- and low-density states below a critical point, ɛ < ɛ c , with generic two-phase coexistence (2PC) at least for smaller 𝑁. With some exceptions, there is an approach toward mean-field behavior with increasing 𝑁 (so the regime of generic 2PC shrinks, and ɛ c approaches the mean-field value of 1/27). Additional insight into trends is provided by analysis of the exact master equations for the models via hierarchical truncation. These truncations utilize suitably tailored pair approximations which reflect the dominant nonequilibrium spatial correlations. These correlations in turn are shown to reflect the details of the autocatalytic particle creation process. For spatially heterogeneous states, the truncations produce coupled sets of lattice differential equations (LDE) which can describe orientation-dependent propagation of an interface between high- and low-density steady states for ɛ < ɛ c . Pair approximation values of 𝑝 = 𝑝 eq where the interface is stationary, and its orientation-dependence, are in semiquantitative agreement with KMC results. In conclusion, this comparison accounts for propagation failure in the LDE which complicates interpretation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Ecodriving Control in Electrified Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Using Approximate Dynamic Programing

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), particularly those with a hybrid electric powertrain, have the potential to significantly improve vehicle energy savings in real-world driving conditions. In particular, the ecodriving problem seeks to design optimal speed and power usage profiles based on available information from connectivity and advanced mapping features to minimize the fuel consumption over an itinerary. This paper presents a hierarchical multilayer model predictive control (MPC) approach for improving the fuel economy of a 48 V mild-hybrid powertrain in a connected vehicle environment. Approximate dynamic programing (DP) is used to solve the receding horizon optimal control problem, whose terminal cost is approximated with the base policy obtained from the long-term optimization. The controller was tested virtually (with deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation) across multiple real-world routes, demonstrating energy savings of more than 20%. The controller was then deployed on a test vehicle equipped with a rapid prototyping embedded controller. In-vehicle testing confirm the energy savings obtained in simulation and demonstrate the real-time ability of the controller.

Automation & Control Systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

Aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the use intention and influencing factors of telerehabilitation in people with rehabilitation needs: a cross-sectional survey

Objective This study aimed to investigate the use intention and influencing factors of telerehabilitation in people with rehabilitation needs. Methods This cross-sectional survey recruited a total of 183 participants with rehabilitation needs from May 2022 to December 2022. Sociodemographic and medical data were collected by a structured questionnaire. The factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation were measured by the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model. Multiple hierarchical regression analyses were performed. Results A total of 150 valid questionnaires were included for analysis. The results indicated that the use intention of telerehabilitation was overall high in people with rehabilitation needs. Health condition ( β = −0.21, p = 0.03), performance expectancy ( β = 0.21, p = 0.01), facilitating conditions ( β = 0.25, p = 0.03), perceived trust ( β = 0.25, p < 0.01), and self-efficacy ( β = 0.19, p = 0.04) were significant factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation. Conclusion Overall, the use intention of telerehabilitation is high in individuals with rehabilitation needs. Health conditions, performance expectancy, facilitating conditions, perceived trust, and self-efficacy are important factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation in individuals with rehabilitation needs.

Wang, Mao-Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hierarchical Feature-Based Methodology to Perform Cervical Cancer Classification

Prevention of cervical cancer could be performed using Pap smear image analysis. This test screens pre-neoplastic changes in the cervical epithelial cells; accurate screening can reduce deaths caused by the disease. Pap smear test analysis is exhaustive and repetitive work performed visually by a cytopathologist. This article proposes a workload-reducing algorithm for cervical cancer detection based on analysis of cell nuclei features within Pap smear images. We investigate eight traditional machine learning methods to perform a hierarchical classification. We propose a hierarchical classification methodology for computer-aided screening of cell lesions, which can recommend fields of view from the microscopy image based on the nuclei detection of cervical cells. We evaluate the performance of several algorithms against the Herlev and CRIC databases, using a varying number of classes during image classification. Results indicate that the hierarchical classification performed best when using Random Forest as the key classifier, particularly when compared with decision trees, k-NN, and the Ridge methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive granular representative volume element model with an evolutionary periodic boundary for hierarchical multiscale analysis

The hierarchical multiscale analysis normally utilizes a microscopic representative volume element (RVE) model to capture path/history-dependent macroscopic responses instead of using phenomenological constitutive models. However, for problems involving large deformation, the current RVE model used in geomechanics may lose representative properties due to the progressive distortion of the RVE box, unless a proper reinitialization is applied. This work develops an adaptive RVE model in conjunction with an evolutionary periodic boundary (EPB) algorithm for hierarchical multiscale analysis of granular materials undergoing large deformation based on a recent RVE model proposed for coupling molecular dynamics and the material point method. The proposed adaptive RVE model avoids the reinitialization of the RVE box that even undergoes extremely large shear deformation; meanwhile, it accounts for the deformation history of the RVE model and treats the interaction between boundary particles and other image particles in a more efficient way. Numerical examples with extremely large deformation are used to illustrate the adaptive granular RVE model enhanced by the proposed EPB algorithm. Furthermore, some key features of this new methodology are further discussed for clarification.

42 ENGINEERING↗