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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response

Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of open ocean biogeochemistry on aerosol and clouds: Recent findings and perspectives

Aerosols and clouds are key components of the marine atmosphere, impacting the Earth’s radiative budget with a net cooling effect over the industrial era that counterbalances greenhouse gas warming, yet with an uncertain amplitude. Here we report recent advances in our understanding of how open ocean aerosol sources are modulated by ocean biogeochemistry and how they, in turn, shape cloud coverage and properties. We organize these findings in successive steps from ocean biogeochemical processes to particle formation by nucleation and sea spray emissions, further particle growth by condensation of gases, the potential to act as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nucleating particles, and finally, their effects on cloud formation, optical properties, and life cycle. We discuss how these processes may be impacted in a warming climate and the potential for ocean biogeochemistry—climate feedbacks through aerosols and clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

Borza, Karen↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth observing scanning polarimeter

Climate forcing by tropospheric aerosols is receiving increased attention because of the realization that the climate effects may be large, while our knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and temporal changes is very poor. Tropospheric aerosols cause a direct radiative forcing due simply to their scattering and absorption of solar radiation, as well as an indirect effect as cloud condensation nuclei which can modify the shortwave reflectivity of clouds. Sulfate aerosols tend to increase planetary albedo through both the direct and indirect effects; a cooling due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols has been estimated of order 1 W/sq m, noting that this is similar in magnitude to the present anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. Other aerosols, including those from biomass burning and wind-blown desert dust are also of potential climatic importance. At present, the only global monitoring of tropospheric aerosols is a NOAA operational product, aerosol optical thickness, obtained using channel-1 (0.58-0.68 mu m) radiances from the AVHRR. With this single channel radiance data, one must use an approach which is based on the inferred excess of reflected radiance owing to scattering by the aerosols over that expected from theoretical calculations. This approach is suited only for situations where the surface has a low albedo that is well known a priori. Thus, the NOAA operational product is restricted to coverage over the ocean at AVHRR scan angles well away from sun glint, and aerosol changes are subject to confusion with changes caused by either optically thin or subpixel clouds. Because optically thin aerosols have only a small effect on the radiance, accurate measurements for optical thickness less than 0.1 (which is a typical background level) are precluded. Moreover, some of the largest and most important aerosol changes are expected over land. The Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter (EOSP) instrument, based upon design heritage and analysis techniques developed for planetary missions, will retrieve tropospheric aerosol characteristics from measurements of multispectral radiance and polarization. Moreover, the same radiance and polarization measurements will also provide very precise information on cloud properties and maps of surface characteristics for cloud-free regions. These capabilities also give EOSP the unique ability to discriminate aerosol from clouds and surface.

Travis, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1994

Model evaluation of the radiative and temperature effects of the ozone content changes in the global atmosphere of 1980's

Radiative and temperature effects of the observed ozone and greenhouse gas atmospheric content changes in 1980 - 1990 are evaluated using the two-dimensional energy balance radiative-convective model of the zonally and annually averaged troposphere and stratosphere. Calculated radiative flux changes for standard conditions quantitatively agree with their estimates in WMO/UNEP 1991 review. Model estimates indicate rather small influence of ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere on the greenhouse tropospheric warming rate, being more significant in the non-tropical Southern Hemisphere. The calculated cooling of the lower stratosphere is close to the observed temperature trends there in the last decade.

Karol, Igor L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Tropospheric Response to Estimated Spectrally Discriminated Solar Forcing Over the Past 500 Years

The GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) is used to investigate the effect of estimated solar irradiance changes on climate for the past 500 years. This model is employed to allow the impact of UV variations on the stratosphere to affect the troposphere via wave-mean flow interactions. Multiple experiments are done with only a total solar irradiance change (peaking at 0.2 percent from the Maunder Minimum to today); with estimated spectrally-varying irradiance changes (i.e., peak changes of 0.7 percent in the UV, 0.2 percent in the visible and near IR; and 0.07 percent in the IR greater than 1 micron); and the spectrally-varying changes in conjunction with model calculated ozone responses in the stratosphere. Results of the varying temperature patterns and radiation response will be discussed. Of interest is whether the different methods of forcing the solar-induced climate change produce different spatial surface temperature signatures, particularly ones that can be differentiated from greenhouse gas warming. In preliminary tests, spectrally-varying solar forcing with induced ozone changes for solar maximum minus solar minimum conditions results in a temperature signal that is primarily at high latitudes.The high latitude response arises due to solar/ozone-induced alterations in the stratospheric wind field that affect planetary wave propagation from the troposphere, and alter tropospheric advection patterns. In contrast, forcing by total solar irradiance changes produces significant response at low and subtropical latitudes as well, driven by water vapor and cloud feedbacks to the radiative perturbation.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2001

Our Sun V: A Bright Young Sun Consistent with Helioseismology and Warm Temperatures on Ancient Earth and Mars

The relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth and Mars have been difficult to account for with warming from greenhouse gases. A slightly more massive young Sun would be brighter than predicted by the standard solar model, simultaneously resolving this problem for both Earth and Mars. We computed high-precision solar models with seven initial masses, from Mi = 1.01 to 1.07 solar mass - the latter being the maximum permitted if the early Earth is not to lose its water via a moist greenhouse effect. The relatively modest early mass loss that is required remains consistent with observational limits on mass loss from young stars and with estimates of the past solar wind obtained from lunar rocks. We considered three types of mass loss rates: (1) a reasonable choice of a simple exponential decline, (2) an extreme step-function case that gives the maximum effect consistent with observations, and (3) the radical case of a linear decline which is inconsistent with the solar wind mass loss estimates from lunar rocks. Our computations demonstrated that mass loss leaves a fingerprint oil the Sun's internal structure large enough to be detectable with helioseismic observations. All of our mass-losing solar models were consistent with the helioseismic observations; in fact, our preferred mass-losing cases were in marginally better agreement with the helioseismology than the standard solar model was, although this difference was smaller than the effects of other uncertainties in the input physics and in the solar composition. Mass loss has only a relatively minor effect on the predicted lithium depletion; the major portion of the solar lithium depletion must still be due to rotational mixing. Thus the modest mass loss cases considered here cannot be ruled out by observed lithium depletions. For the three mass loss types considered, the preferred initial masses were 1.07 solar mass for the exponential case and 1.04 solar mass for the step-function and linear cases; all of these provided high enough solar fluxes at Mars 3.8 Gyr ago to be consistent with the existence of liquid water. For a more massive early Sun, the planets would have had to be closer to the young Sun in order to end up in their present orbits; the orbital radii of the planets would vary inversely with the solar mass. Both of these effects contribute to the fact that the early solar flux at the planets would have been considerably higher than that of the standard solar model at that time. In fact, the 1.07 solar mass exponential case has a flux at birth 5% higher than the present solar flux, while the radical 1.04 solar mass linear case has a nearly constant flux over the first 3 Gyr only about 10% lower than at present. The early solar evolution would be in the opposite direction in the H-R diagram to that of the standard Sun.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗
NASA NTRS2000

Paleoproterozoic snowball earth: extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its biological consequences

Geological, geophysical, and geochemical data support a theory that Earth experienced several intervals of intense, global glaciation ("snowball Earth" conditions) during Precambrian time. This snowball model predicts that postglacial, greenhouse-induced warming would lead to the deposition of banded iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have drastically curtailed biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading to an oxygen spike in the euphotic zone and to the oxidative precipitation of iron and manganese. A Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth at 2.4 Giga-annum before present (Ga) immediately precedes the Kalahari Manganese Field in southern Africa, suggesting that this rapid and massive change in global climate was responsible for its deposition. As large quantities of O(2) are needed to precipitate this Mn, photosystem II and oxygen radical protection mechanisms must have evolved before 2.4 Ga. This geochemical event may have triggered a compensatory evolutionary branching in the Fe/Mn superoxide dismutase enzyme, providing a Paleoproterozoic calibration point for studies of molecular evolution.

Earth (Planet)↗
NASA NTRS2023

Rapidly Evolving Aerosol Emissions Are A Dangerous Omission From Near-Term Climate Risk Assessments

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

anthropogenic aerosol↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Role of Internal Variability and Feedbacks Controlling AMOC Stability

A bi-stable mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is found in a 10-member ensemble simulation of the SSP2-4.5 scenario using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model. Local feedbacks in the subpolar North Atlantic region in conjunction with internal variability in sea-ice transport and melt play a critical role in causing the divergent behavior of the AMOC in the ensemble members. While other fully coupled models have demonstrated the important role of surface freshening in leading to AMOC shutdown, either through hosing experiments or increased precipitation and greenhouse gas warming at high latitudes, in the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. This is the first time that a CMIP-class model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Influence of Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on Historical Changes in Aerosol-Climate Interactions

Dry deposition removes short-lived climate forcers and their precursors from the atmosphere. The aerosol dry deposition schemes in many global climate models have been untouched for decades. Previous work hints that aerosol dry deposition is an uncertainty with respect to aerosol impacts on climate change. Here we demonstrate the impact of a more mechanistic aerosol dry deposition parameterization on the historical aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using the NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model. We investigate two aerosol configurations – a “bulk” mass-based scheme and a modal scheme that more explicitly represents internal mixing and microphysics – of the global model. Both configurations show ~20% larger historical increases in non-dust aerosols globally with more mechanistic dry deposition. Changes to particle dry deposition, which are strongly a function of particle diameter, have a greater influence on the cloud albedo effect (up to 0.1 W m-2) when aerosols are more explicitly resolved in the modal scheme. On the other hand, impacts on the direct aerosol effect are small for both model configurations. In both aerosol configurations, the global climate effects are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the strength of the uptake to dry deposition as suggested by (limited) measurements. In general, the low number of aerosol flux measurements and strong variability across existing observations challenge confidence in our understanding of dry depositional processes and changes with environmental conditions. Nonetheless, our work suggests that changes in dry deposition may be important for accurately estimating increases in aerosol abundances over the historical period, which is key for correct inferences about how cooling from aerosols has offset warming from greenhouse gases.

Dry deposition↗
DOE OSTI2022

NCSU Industrial Assessment Center

Renewable energy technologies are becoming more attractive and gaining more attention as the world becomes increasingly aware of the negative impacts of global warming and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two such emerging technologies are geothermal heat pumps (GHP) and solar thermal heating which can be used for heating and cooling of buildings. GHP systems are a well-studied technology that have been proven to be more efficient than traditional air-source heat pumps for space conditioning of buildings. Solar thermal heating has become more common as a way to heat domestic hot water (DHW) in homes, but the two technologies are not often combined. This study presents the findings of combining an open-loop GHP with 100 ft2 of flat plate solar thermal panels and a 5,655-gallon sensible water storage tank for space heating and DHW heating needs of a residential home in Bozeman, MT, USA. The goal of this system was to use energy from the solar panels and storage tank first to decrease pumping energy from the GHP well. The open loop system was designed to be a backup system to the solar thermal panels and sensible storage tank. An actual home was modeled to determine potential energy and cost savings of such a system compared to a traditional propane boiler. Then, a case study was performed on the installed system from January to June 2021. Results obtained from April 2nd to June 5th, 2021 indicated that the combination system supplied all necessary heat, and that heat was supplied from the thermal storage tank 55% of the time. This represents a savings of 330 kWh of energy and $36 compared to operating just the open loop geothermal system. From April 2nd to June 5th the combination system consumed a total of 2,510 kWh of energy and cost $274 to operate. Based on data obtained, there is significant potential for energy savings compared to a propane boiler, however only small potential for cost savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions in limiting global warming

Unfortunately, current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Here, we discuss the critical role that non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions might play in global climate change stabilization and challenges and opportunities to pivot research and policy focus toward accelerated reductions of non-CO 2 gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2010

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗