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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular hydrodynamic theory of the velocity autocorrelation function

The velocity autocorrelation function (VACF) encapsulates extensive information about a fluid’s molecular-structural and hydrodynamic properties. We address the following fundamental question: How well can a purely hydrodynamic description recover the molecular features of a fluid as exhibited by the VACF? To this end, we formulate a bona fide hydrodynamic theory of the tagged-particle VACF for simple fluids. Our approach is distinguished from previous efforts in two key ways: collective hydrodynamic modes and tagged-particle self-motion are modeled by linear hydrodynamic equations; the fluid’s spatial velocity power spectrum is identified as a necessary initial condition for the momentum current correlation. This formulation leads to a natural physical interpretation of the VACF as a superposition of products of quasinormal hydrodynamic modes weighted commensurately with the spatial velocity power spectrum, the latter of which appears to physically bridge continuum hydrodynamical behavior and discrete-particle kinetics. The methodology yields VACF calculations quantitatively on par with existing approaches for liquid noble gases and alkali metals. Furthermore, we obtain a new, hydrodynamic form of the self-intermediate scattering function whose description has been extended to low densities where the Schmidt number is of order unity; various calculations are performed for gaseous and supercritical argon to support the general validity of the theory. Excellent quantitative agreement is obtained with recent MD calculations for a dense supercritical Lennard-Jones fluid.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unified understanding of the impact of semiflexibility, concentration, and molecular weight on macromolecular-scale ring diffusion

Conformationally fluctuating, globally compact macromolecules such as polymeric rings, single-chain nanoparticles, microgels, and many-arm stars display complex dynamic behaviors due to their rich topological structure and intermolecular organization. Synthetic rings are hybrid objects with conformations that display both ideal random walk and compact globular features, which can serve as models of genomic DNA. To date, emphasis has been placed on the effect of ring molecular weight on their unusual behaviors. Here, we combine simulations and a microscopic force-level theory to build a unified understanding for how key aspects of ring dynamics depend on different tunable molecular properties including backbone rigidity, monomer concentration, degree of traditional entanglement, and molecular weight. Our large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of ring melts with very different backbone stiffnesses reveal unanticipated behaviors which agree well with our generalized theory. This includes a universal master curve for center-of-mass diffusion constants as a function of molecular weight scaled by a chemistry and thermodynamic state-dependent critical molecular weight that generalizes the concept of an entanglement cross-over for linear chains. The key physics is how backbone rigidity and monomer concentration induced changes of the entanglement length, interring packing, degree of interpenetration, and liquid compressibility slow down space-time dynamic-force correlations on macromolecular scales. A power law decay of the center-of-mass diffusion constant with inverse molecular weight squared is the first consequence, followed by an ultraslow activated hopping transport regime. Our results set the stage to address slow dynamics and kinetic arrest in different families of compact synthetic and biological polymeric systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Load Mitigating Feedback Control of WECs

This report outlines the development of load-mitigating feedback control for wave energy converters. A simple, self-tuning multi-objective controller is demonstrated in simulation for a 3-DOF (surge, heave, pitch) point absorber. In previous work, the proposed control architecture has been shown to be effective in experiment for a variety of device archetypes for the single objective of the maximization of electrical power capture: here this architecture is extended to reduce device loading as well. In particular, PTO actuation forces and the minimization of fatigue damage (determined from the sum of wave-exerted and PTO forces) are considered as additional objectives for the self-tuning controller. This controller is demonstrated for two similar, but distinct systems: one described by the identified linear models from physical testing of the WaveBot device, and another based upon a WEC-Sim simulation that expands upon boundary element method data from the WaveBot device. In both cases, because the power surface is consistently fairly flat in the vicinity of control parameters that maximize power capture in contrasting sea-states, it is found to be generally possible to mitigate either fatigue damage or PTO load. However, PTO load is found to conflict with fatigue damage in some sea-states, limiting the efficacy of control objectives that attempt to mitigate both simultaneously. Additionally, coupling between the surge and pitch DOFs also limits the extent to which fatigue damage can be mitigated for both DOFs in some sea-states. Because control objectives can be considered a function of the sea-state (e.g., load mitigation may not be a concern until the sea is sufficiently large) a simple transition strategy is proposed and demonstrated. This transition strategy is found to be effective with some caveats: firstly, it cannot circumvent the aforementioned objective contradictions. Secondly, this objective transition is too slow to act as a system constraint, and objective thresholds must thus be considered quite conservatively. Improvement of the adjustment strategy is demonstrated through the addition of an integral term. Selection of well-performing transition parameters can be a function of sea-state. While a simple selection procedure is proposed, it is non-optimal, and a more robust selection procedure is suggested for future work.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of adsorbate-adsorbate interactions for apparent kinetics of surface catalytic reactions

Lateral adsorbate interactions at catalyst surfaces are known to influence adsorption energies and reaction rates. Lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations are able to capture these influences, but such models are typically parameterized for a specific reaction network and catalyst surface. Here we report kMC simulations to probe the influence of lateral interactions on simulated rates, rate orders, apparent activation energies, and Sabatier plots. We construct a simple, two-step reaction network involving a single adsorbate and rate- limiting diatomic dissociation, employ a generic repulsive lateral interaction model consistent with known adsorbate-adsorbate interactions on metal surfaces, and a rate model consistent with known Brønsted-Evans-Polyani relationships for diatomic dissocations. Furthermore, we juxtapose reaction kinetics over a wide range of reaction conditions and catalyst binding energies, as a function of interaction strength. We find that at a given zero-coverage binding energy and external conditions, adsorbate coverage decreases monotonically with increasing interaction strength, but absolute rates can vary linearly or nonlinearly. Interactions flatten the Sabatier volcano and shift the maximum towards stronger binding. Influences on apparent rate orders and activation energies are modest and are sensitive to interaction-induced adsorbate ordering. Model predictions are sensitive to lattice size effects at high coverages. The results, modelled for a simple reaction system, highlight the generic consequences of lateral interactions and guidance for identifying their signatures in observed kinetics.

kinetic Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

First-principles wave-vector- and frequency-dependent exchange-correlation kernel for jellium at all densities

Here we propose a spatially and temporally nonlocal exchange correlation (XC) kernel for the spin-unpolarized fluid phase of ground-state jellium for use in time-dependent density functional and linear response calculations. The kernel is constructed to satisfy known properties of the exact XC kernel to accurately describe the correlation energies of bulk jellium and to satisfy frequency-moment sum rules at a wide range of bulk jellium densities, including those low densities that display strong correlation and symmetry breaking. These effects are easier to understand in the simple jellium model than in real systems. All exact constraints satisfied by the recent MCP07 kernel are maintained in the revised MCP07 (rMCP07) kernel, while others are added. The revision $f^{rMCP07}_{XC}$ (q, ω) differs from MCP07 only for nonzero frequencies ω. Only at densities much lower than those of real bulk metals is the frequency dependence of the kernel important for the correlation energy of jellium. As the wave vector q tends to zero, the kernel has a -4$πα(ω)/q^2$ divergence whose frequency-dependent ultranonlocality coefficient $α(ω)$ vanishes in jellium, and is predicted by rMCP07 to be extremely small for the real metals Al and Na.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced MPM framework with multipatch isogeometric analysis for geotechnical applications

Achieving stable stress solutions at large strains using the Material Point Method (MPM) is challenging due to the accumulation of errors associated with geometry discretization, cell-crossing noise, and volumetric locking. Several simplified attempts exist in the literature to mitigate these errors, including higher-order frameworks. However, the stability of the MPM solution in such frameworks has been limited to simple geometries and the single-phase formulation (i.e., neglecting pore fluid). Although never explored, multipatch isogeometric analysis offers desirable qualities to simulate complex geometries while mitigating errors in the MPM. The degree of required high-order spatial integration has also never been investigated to infer a minimum limit for the stability of the stress solution in MPM. This paper presents a general-purpose numerical framework for simulating stable stresses in porous media, capturing both near incompressibility and multiphase interactions. First, the numerical framework is presented considering Non-Uniform Rational B-splines (NURBS) to perform isogeometric analysis (IGA) in MPM. Additionally, a volumetric strain smoothing algorithm is used to alleviate errors associated with volumetric locking. Second, the manifestation of cell-crossing errors is assessed via a series of problems with orders ranging from linear to cubic interpolation functions. Third, the use of NURBS is investigated and verified for problems with circular geometries. Finally, multipatch analysis is deployed to simulate plane strain and 3D penetration in soils, considering nearly incompressible elastoplastic (total stress) analysis and fully-coupled hydro-mechanical (effective stress) analysis. The stability of the solution is also analyzed for different constitutive models. From the results, it can be concluded that the framework using cubic interpolation functions with strain smoothing is the most convenient, presenting stable stress solutions for a broad range of multiphase geotechnical applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow: Scale and redshift variation of velocity and density distributions

The statistics of velocity and density fields are crucial for cosmic structure formation and evolution. Here, this paper extends our previous work on the two-point second-order statistics for the velocity field [Phys. Fluids 35, 077105 (2023)] to one-point probability distributions for both density and velocity fields. The scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions are studied by a halo-based non-projection approach. First, all particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles so that the redshift variation can be studied via generalized kurtosis of distributions for halo and out-of-halo particles, respectively. Second, without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales $r$. We demonstrate that: (i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; (ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade on small scales with a constant rate $\varepsilon_u$; (iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity $\Delta u_L$ follow a two-thirds law $\propto{(-\varepsilon_ur)}^{2/3}$, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling $\langle(\Delta u_L)^{2n+1}\rangle=(2n+1)\langle(\Delta u_L)^{2n}\rangle\langle\Delta u_L\rangle\propto{r}$; (iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities $u_L$ or $u_L^{'}$, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) $\Delta u_L$=$u_L^{'}$-$u_L$ and velocity sum $\Sigma u_L$=$u^{'}_L$+$u_L$. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; (v) On small scales, $u_L$ and $\Sigma u_L$ can be modeled by a $X$ distribution to maximize the entropy of the system. The distribution of $\Delta u_L$ can be different; (vi) On large scales, $\Delta u_L$ and $\Sigma u_L$ can be modeled by a logistic or a $X$ distribution, while $u_L$ has a different distribution; (vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the $X$ distribution involving a shape parameter $\alpha(z)$ decreasing with time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Learning Approach for Binary Optimization: Application to Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments

Here, we present a novel stochastic approach to binary optimization suited for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by mathematical models such as partial differential equations. The OED utility function, namely, the regularized optimality criterion, is cast into a stochastic objective function in the form of an expectation over a multivariate Bernoulli distribution. The probabilistic objective is then solved by using a stochastic optimization routine to find an optimal observational policy. This formulation (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with soft constraints and is ideal for OED and sensor placement problems; (b) does not require differentiability of the original objective function (e.g., a utility function in OED applications) with respect to the design variable, and thus it enables direct employment of sparsity-enforcing penalty functions such as $\ell_0$, without needing to utilize a continuation procedure or apply a rounding technique; (c) exhibits much lower computational cost than traditional gradient-based relaxation approaches; and (d) can be applied to both linear and nonlinear OED problems with proper choice of the utility function. The proposed approach is analyzed from an optimization perspective with detailed convergence analysis of the optimization approach and is also analyzed from a machine learning perspective with correspondence to policy gradient reinforcement learning. The approach is demonstrated numerically by using an idealized two-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problem and validated by extensive numerical experiments carried out for sensor placement in a parameter identification setup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the eco-geomorphologic feedback of coastal marsh under sea level rise: vegetation dynamic representations, processes interaction, and parametric sensitivity

A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea-level rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How vegetation dynamic schemes contribute to simulation outcomes is not well quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of modeling outcomes to parameter selection in the available formulations has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence of an accelerating SLR. In this paper, we used a coastal eco-geomorphologic model with different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh platform relief increased with sea level rise rate. The simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibited different spatial-temporal variations in elevation and biomass. The nonlinear Spartina scheme presented the most resilient prediction with generally the highest marsh accretion and vegetation biomass, and the least elevation relief under SLR. But the linear Spartina scheme predicts the lowest unvegetated-vegetated ratio. We also found that vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which were not well measured or discussed in previous studies, were identified as some of the most critical parameters. Additionally, the model sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters increased with SLR rates. The identified most sensitive parameters may inform how to appropriately choose modeling representations of key processes and parameters for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, and demonstrate the importance of future field measurements of these key parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallel transport dynamics for mixed quantum states with applications to time-dependent density functional theory

Direct simulation of the von Neumann dynamics for a general (pure or mixed) quantum state can often be expensive. One prominent example is the real-time time-dependent density functional theory (rt-TDDFT), a widely used framework for the first principle description of many-electron dynamics in chemical and materials systems. Practical rt-TDDFT calculations often avoid the direct simulation of the von Neumann equation, and solve instead a set of Schrödinger equations, of which the dynamics is equivalent to that of the von Neumann equation. However, the time step size employed by the Schrödinger dynamics is often much smaller. Here, in order to improve the time step size and the overall efficiency of the simulation, we generalize a recent work of the parallel transport (PT) dynamics for simulating pure states [An, Lin, Multiscale Model. Simul. 18, 612, 2020] to general quantum states. The PT dynamics provides the optimal gauge choice, and can employ a time step size comparable to that of the von Neumann dynamics. Going beyond the linear and near adiabatic regime in previous studies, we find that the error of the PT dynamics can be bounded by certain commutators between Hamiltonians, density matrices, and their derived quantities. Such a commutator structure is not present in the Schrödinger dynamics. We demonstrate that the parallel transport-implicit midpoint (PT-IM) method is a suitable method for simulating the PT dynamics, especially when the spectral radius of the Hamiltonian is large. The commutator structure of the error bound, and numerical results for model rt-TDDFT calculations in both linear and nonlinear regimes, confirm the advantage of the PT dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bloch and Bethe Ansätze for the Harper model: A butterfly with a boundary

Based on a recent generalization of Bloch's theorem, herein we present a Bloch Ansatz for the Harper model with an arbitrary rational magnetic flux in various geometries, and solve the associated Ansatz equations analytically. In the case of a cylinder and a particular boundary condition, the energy spectrum of edge states has no dependence on the length of the cylinder, which allows us to construct a quasi-one-dimensional edge theory that is exact and describes two edges simultaneously. We prove that energies of bulk states, generating the so-called Hofstadter's butterfly, depend on a single geometry-dependent spectral parameter and have exactly the same functional form for the cylinder and the torus with general twisted boundary conditions, and argue that the (edge) bulk spectrum of a semi-infinite cylinder in an irrational magnetic field is (the complement of) a Cantor set. Finally, realizing that the bulk projection of the Harper Hamiltonian is a linear form over a deformed Weyl algebra, we introduce a Bethe Ansatz valid for both cylinder and torus geometries.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the Activity and Selectivity of Bimetallic Metal Catalysts for Ethanol Reforming using Machine Learning

Machine learning is ideally suited for the pattern detection in large uniform datasets, but consistent experimental datasets on catalyst studies are often small. Here we demonstrate how a combination of machine learning and first-principles calculations can be used to extract knowledge from a relatively small set of experimental data. The approach is based on combining a complex machine-learning model trained on an extensive computational library of transition-state energies with simple linear regression models of experimental catalytic activities and selectivities from the literature. Using the combined model, we identify the key C–C bond scission reactions involved in ethanol reforming and perform a computational screening for ethanol reforming on monolayer bimetallic catalysts with architectures TM-Pt-Pt(111) and Pt-TM-Pt(111) (TM = 3d transition metals). The model also predicts four promising catalyst compositions for future experimental studies. In conclusion, the approach is not limited to ethanol reforming but is of general use for the interpretation of experimental observations as well as for the computational discovery of novel catalytic materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

SAM: A Modern System Code for Advanced Non-LWR Safety Analysis

The System Analysis Module (SAM), developed at Argonne National Laboratory and by collaborators at other organizations, is for advanced non–light water reactor safety analysis. SAM aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analysis capabilities that are essential for fast-turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. To facilitate code development, SAM utilizes the MOOSE object-oriented application framework, its underlying finite element library, and linear and nonlinear solvers to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SAM aims to solve tightly coupled physical phenomena, including fission reaction, heat transfer, fluid dynamics, and thermal-mechanical responses in advanced reactor structures, systems, and components with high accuracy and efficiency. Finally, this paper gives an overview of the SAM code development, including goals and functional requirements, physical models, current capabilities, verification and validation, software quality assurance, and examples of simulations for advanced nuclear reactor applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging operator learning to accelerate convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method

We propose a new deflation strategy to accelerate the convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method for solving parametric large-scale linear systems of equations. Unlike traditional deflation techniques that rely on eigenvector approximations or recycled Krylov subspaces, we generate the deflation subspaces using operator learning, specifically the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To this aim, we introduce two complementary approaches for assembling the deflation operators. The first approach approximates near-null space vectors of the discrete PDE operator using the basis functions learned by the DeepONet. The second approach directly leverages solutions predicted by the DeepONet. To further enhance convergence, we also propose several strategies for prescribing the sparsity pattern of the deflation operator. Here, a comprehensive set of numerical experiments encompassing steady-state, time-dependent, scalar, and vector-valued problems posed on both structured and unstructured geometries is presented and demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed DeepONet-based deflated PCG method, as well as its generalization across a wide range of model parameters and problem resolutions.

Deflation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗