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DOE OSTI2021

Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration

Abstract Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?

Abstract Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of acoustic waves under subsurface conditions to improve the predictions of rock mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics

Mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics are critical to investigate for subsurface engineering applications, including carbon storage, well drilling, and stimulation, as they govern rock stability, fluid flow, and mechanical behavior under stress. This dissertation integrates experimental and machine learning approaches to enhance the prediction and understanding of these properties by analyzing acoustic wave behavior under varied subsurface conditions. First, the influence of temperature, pore pressure, and supercritical CO2 (scCO2) saturation on poroelastic properties is examined using Gray Berea sandstone samples. The results show that temperature and pore pressure significantly affect the bulk modulus and Biot’s coefficient, while scCO2 saturation impacts rock compressibility, informing strategies for effective geological carbon storage. The study extends this understanding by experimentally evaluating the impact of reservoir depletion on the dynamic mechanical properties of the emerging Caney shale in South Oklahoma with the employment of unsupervised machine learning to predict static mechanical properties across the Caney shale. Integrating petrophysical data and chemostratigraphy, the workflow—featuring K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)—improves stratigraphic characterization and the estimation of static-to-dynamic modulus ratios, which is vital for optimizing drilling and stimulation strategies. Finally, the work explores how natural fracture characteristics in shale influence acoustic waveforms and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis. Experimental data on fractured samples under different stress and temperature conditions, combined with machine learning models such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), reveal key fracture properties impacting SWS and wave propagation. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive framework for linking acoustic wave behavior with rock properties, advancing the methods for monitoring and predicting geomechanical changes. The insights offered valuable implications for safer, more efficient CO2 injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and subsurface management.

Elkholy, Sherif↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-frame, ultrafast, x-ray microscope for imaging shockwave dynamics

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) holds increasing promise as a potential source of abundant, clean energy, but has been impeded by defects such as micro-voids in the ablator layer of the fuel capsules. It is critical to understand how these micro-voids interact with the laser-driven shock waves that compress the fuel pellet. At the Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS), we utilized an x-ray pulse train with ns separation, an x-ray microscope, and an ultrafast x-ray imaging (UXI) detector to image shock wave interactions with micro-voids. To minimize the high- and low-frequency variations of the captured images, we incorporated principal component analysis (PCA) and image alignment for flat-field correction. After applying these techniques we generated phase and attenuation maps from a 2D hydrodynamic radiation code (xRAGE), which were used to simulate XPCI images that we qualitatively compare with experimental images, providing a one-to-one comparison for benchmarking material performance. Moreover, we implement a transport-of-intensity (TIE) based method to obtain the average projected mass density (areal density) of our experimental images, yielding insight into how defect-bearing ablator materials alter microstructural feature evolution, material compression, and shock wave propagation on ICF-relevant time scales.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct imaging of shock wave splitting in diamond at Mbar pressure

Understanding the behavior of matter at extreme pressures of the order of a megabar (Mbar) is essential to gain insight into various physical phenomena at macroscales—the formation of planets, young stars, and the cores of super-Earths, and at microscales—damage to ceramic materials and high-pressure plastic transformation and phase transitions in solids. Under dynamic compression of solids up to Mbar pressures, even a solid with high strength exhibits plastic properties, causing the induced shock wave to split in two: an elastic precursor and a plastic shock wave. This phenomenon is described by theoretical models based on indirect measurements of material response. The advent of x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has made it possible to use their ultrashort pulses for direct observations of the propagation of shock waves in solid materials by the method of phase-contrast radiography. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive data for verification of theoretical models of different solids. Here, we present the results of an experiment in which the evolution of the coupled elastic–plastic wave structure in diamond was directly observed and studied with submicrometer spatial resolution, using the unique capabilities of the x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL). The direct measurements allowed, for the first time, the fitting and validation of the 2D failure model for diamond in the range of several Mbar. Our experimental approach opens new possibilities for the direct verification and construction of equations of state of matter in the ultra-high-stress range, which are relevant to solving a variety of problems in high-energy-density physics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Coupling of an EUV Coronal Wave and Ion Acceleration in a Fermi-LAT Behind-the-Limb Solar Flare

We present the Fermi-LAT observations of the behind-the-limb (BTL) flare of 2021 July 17 and the joint detection of this flare by STIX on board the Solar Orbiter. The separation between Earth and the Solar Orbiter was $99^{\circ}_{\centerdot}2$ at 05:00 UT, allowing STIX to have a front view of the flare. The location of the flare was S20E140 in Stonyhurst heliographic coordinates, making this the most distant behind-the-limb flare ever detected in >100 MeV gamma-rays. The LAT detection lasted for ~16 minutes, the peak flux was 3.6 ± 0.8 (10 –5 ) ph cm –2 s –1 with a significance >15σ. A coronal wave was observed from both STEREO-A and SDO in extreme ultraviolet (EUV), with an onset on the visible disk in coincidence with the LAT onset. A complex type II radio burst was observed by GLOSS also in coincidence with the onset of the LAT emission, indicating the presence of a shock wave. We discuss the relation between the time derivative of the EUV wave intensity profile at 193 Å as observed by STEREO-A and the LAT flux to show that the appearance of the coronal wave at the visible disk and the acceleration of protons as traced by the observed >100 MeV gamma-ray emission are coupled. We also report how this coupling is present in the data from three other BTL flares detected by Fermi-LAT, suggesting that the protons driving the gamma-ray emission of BTL solar flares and the coronal wave share a common origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Open-Loop Control of Adjustable Tuned Mass Dampers for Floating Wind Turbine Platforms: Preprint

Floating offshore wind turbines have several advantages over their land-based counterparts, including access to stronger, more consistent winds and proximity to population centers. However, increased costs from the platform have been a challenge inhibiting their widespread adoption. New damping technologies with tunable target frequencies and damping ratios promise a greater degree of control over platform motions, allowing hulls to be designed smaller and reducing the overall cost of the turbines. In this work, a control strategy is proposed for these adjustable tuned mass dampers (TMDs). A frequency-domain model of the system is developed, from which response amplitude operators (RAOs) for the platform's rigid-body modes can be obtained for different natural frequencies and damping ratios of the dampers. Using these RAOs, and JONSWAP spectrums of operational and extreme sea states, the performance of the various damper settings are compared by evaluating the standard deviation of a rigid-body motion of interest (platform pitch or heave). By finding the optimal damper setting for a range of representative design load cases (DLCs), a lookup function is made to return the damper target frequency given the peak period of the sea state. To determine the current sea state, we propose a simple estimator that uses wave measurements (e.g., from a measurement buoy) to determine the peak period and significant wave height. The significant wave height is determined using the statistics of the past 100 seconds of wave elevation information and the peak period is computed using a frequency locked loop. Initial results show that we can use these estimated values to control the TMD natural frequency with an open loop controller. The controlled system is tested in a range of environmental conditions determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission design load cases (DLCs), which include normal and extreme wind and wave models. In these tests, we compare the performance of 4 cases: (1) no TMD, (2) a constant TMD based on the worst case DLC, (3) a controlled TMD based on known wind and wave environments, and (4) a real-time controlled TMD using estimated wind and wave environments. The effect of hull-based TMD control is also compared to changes in traditional wind turbine control via blade pitch.

control↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous reinforcement learning agents for improving predictions and observations of extreme climate events

Primary Focus Area: This proposal addresses focus area 2, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.” Science Challenge: Extreme climate events associated with severe weather, coastal and inland flooding, droughts, heat waves and wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Due to the complexity and chaotic behavior of the climate system, accurately predicting and observing extreme climate events requires a tremendous amount of human intervention to run predictive climate simulations and deploy measurement systems. Extreme events often unfold very quickly, leaving little time to iterate on simulations or re-position instruments. Through reinforcement learning, autonomous AI agents can be designed to make real-time decisions to characterize extreme climate events more efficiently through adaptive models and targeted observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A modified cosmic brane proposal for holographic Renyi entropy

We propose a new formula for computing holographic Renyi entropies in the presence of multiple extremal surfaces. Our proposal is based on computing the wave function in the basis of fixed-area states and assuming a diagonal approximation for the Renyi entropy. For Renyi index n ≥ 1, our proposal agrees with the existing cosmic brane proposal for holographic Renyi entropy. For n < 1, however, our proposal predicts a new phase with leading order (in Newton’s constant G) corrections to the cosmic brane proposal, even far from entanglement phase transitions and when bulk quantum corrections are unimportant. Recast in terms of optimization over fixed-area states, the difference between the two proposals can be understood to come from the order of optimization: for n < 1, the cosmic brane proposal is a minimax prescription whereas our proposal is a maximin prescription. We demonstrate the presence of such leading order corrections using illustrative examples. In particular, our proposal reproduces existing results in the literature for the PSSY model and high-energy eigenstates, providing a universal explanation for previously found leading order corrections to the n < 1 Renyi entropies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Waveform Profiles for Traveling Wave Ion Mobility Separations in Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations

Structures for lossless ion manipulations (SLIM) have recently enabled a powerful implementation of traveling wave ion mobility spectrometry (TWIMS) for ultra-high resolution separations. However, optimization of experimental parameters remains challenging. Most TWIMS separations have utilized square-shaped waveforms applied by time-dependent voltage stepping across a repeating sets of electrodes; however, alternative waveforms may provide further improvements to resolution. In this work, we characterize five waveforms (including square and sine) in terms of their transmission efficiency, IMS resolution, and resolving power, and explore the effects of TW amplitude and speed on the performance of each. We found, consistent with previous work, separations were generally improved with higher TW amplitudes, moderately improved by lower speeds (limited by ion ‘surfing’ with the waves), and found decreases in signal intensity at the extremes of operating conditions. The triangle and asymmetric ‘ramp forward’ shaped profiles were found to provide modestly greater resolution and resolving power, an observation we tentatively attribute to their relatively uniform fields and minimal low-field regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fast Seismic Anomalies Under Continents Explained by the Delaminated Lower Continental Crust—Implications From High Pressure‐Temperature Elasticity of Jadeite

Seismic tomography has shown that the shear wave velocities (Vs) under continents, especially under cratons, are extremely fast at 100–200 km depth, which is difficult to explain by low temperatures or high Mg#. Alternatively, delaminated eclogitic lower continental crust has been proposed to account for these fast seismic anomalies. However, the thermoelastic properties of jadeite which constitutes up to 60–80 mol% of clinopyroxene in the potentially delaminated lower continental crust are not well constrained. In this study, we measured the single-crystal elasticity of jadeite by Brillouin spectroscopy under simultaneous high pressure and temperature conditions for the first time. We found that the temperature dependence of Vs of jadeite is extremely small if not negligible. The seismic velocities of the potentially delaminated lower continental crusts were subsequently modeled and found to match the widely observed fast seismic anomalies under cratons between 100 and 200 km depth.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Smart Adaptive Structures for an Ocean Wave Energy Converter

Ocean wave energy converters face significant challenges including cost-effectiveness, minimizing maintenance requirements, and withstanding extreme conditions. However, by utilizing smart materials, these converters could overcome these challenges. Such energy harvesters could use dielectric elastomer generators to convert ocean wave energy into electricity through their dynamic straining. Conversely, by applying electricity to these generators, they become actuators - dielectric elastomer actuators - thereby enabling them to alter their stiffness and adapt to the ever-changing ocean energy environments. Such active adaptation could enhance the converter's ability to: reach resonance with ocean waves and protect itself from dangerous waves. This study utilizes numerical analyses through the COMSOL software framework to evaluate the potential energy that could be harvested by a conceptual ocean wave energy converter based upon dielectric elastomer generators/actuators. The converter is composed of an external hull (that is a hollow cylinder), an inertial mass (that is a hollow cylinder and concentric with the hull), and 'spokes' - made of dielectric elastomer generators/actuators - that connect the hull to the inertial mass. Results of the numerical analyses include those outcomes arising from the conceptual converter being simulated via a sinusoidal motion analogous to ocean waves. That motion, therefore, causes relative motion between the converter's hull and inertial mass thereby dynamically stretching the corresponding connecting elastomers. The stretching of the elastomers enables them to 'gain elastic strain energy' and is, therefore, considered to be the theoretical limit of possible electrical energy conversion for the dielectric elastomer generator/actuator spokes. Additionally, the elastomer material properties of the spokes were altered to simulate the actuation of those same elastomers; with overall strain energy being subsequently investigated. Ultimately this is a preliminary study exploring the ability of such smart materials - electricity-generating and self-actuating elastomers - to actively adapt an ocean wave energy converter's structure to address and overcome the aforementioned challenges.

active materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Planar, longitudinal, compressive waves in solids: Thermodynamics and uniaxial strain restrictions

A new tri-axial pressure-based constitutive expression has been found using Cauchy's stress tensor. This stress state emphasizes pressure and shear stress. The description is a pressure plus an effective shear stress allowing for a constitutive law based on atomic solid-state phase changes in crystalline cells due to pressure plus shear-based dislocation motion commonly associated with plasticity. Pressure has a new role in the material's constitutive response as it is separated from plasticity. The thermo-mechanical system describes third-order Gibbs’ expressions without specific volume restrictions placed upon the material. Isothermally, the ratio of heat to shear work in elastic copper is shown to approach zero at a very low temperature and become larger than one as temperature approaches melting. Wave compression models investigated are elastic and plastic: in fully elastic materials, the planar wave is restricted by Poisson's effect although plastic shear changes this constraint. Plastic deformation, dominated by dissipative shear stresses in uniaxial strain, heats the material while excluding phase changes from hydrostatic pressures. The material properties per se across Hugoniot shocks are described with entropy concepts. Shock waves are exceedingly complex since the constitutive laws are linked at extreme temperatures, pressures, and shear stresses. Isothermal, isentropic, isochoric, and iso-shear conditions are used throughout with Jacobian algebra.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗