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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗
NASA NTRS2011

AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

Reale, O.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Solutions: An Approach to Determine the Value of Resilience for a Particular Site

The paper provides the approach to providing a benefit cost analysis of energy and water alternatives to provide resilience to extreme events. The approach estimates the costs and returns of providing greater resilience of water and energy infrastructure. Extreme events are defined as high impact, low-frequency events such as, but not limited to, hurricanes, floods, storm surges and earthquakes. The provides justification for hardening water and energy infrastructure. Resilience is defined as “the ability to prepare for and to withstand an extreme event with little or no damage, or to recover more quickly from an extreme event.” The approach can be summarized as follows. The approach requires the development of a baseline with which to compare alternatives. The baseline is used to evaluate the baseline’s resilience to hazards through the probability of the hazard(s), the likelihood of damage from that the hazard through a vulnerability analysis, and the consequence to calculate a cost of the damage. The approach then evaluates proposed mitigation alternatives that would improve the resilience of the system. Each alternative is evaluated based on probability of the hazard, probability of vulnerability and consequence to determine the reduced damage that each alternative presents. The approach includes any monetary and non-monetary benefits that can quantified for each of the alternatives. Non-quantifiable benefits are evaluated based on the relative importance of each alternative to the criteria used to determine how well the alternative meets the goals and objectives of the site/facility. Then, a life cycle cost analysis should be conducted for the baseline and alternatives. Finally, the results of the life cycle analysis should be presented in a decision matrix with cost, net present value, benefit/cost ratios, and any non-monetary criteria ranked to show how well the alternatives met the criteria, weighted with the decision maker’s weights and the results presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological Drivers of North American Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract In this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self‐organizing maps applied to the Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data set. This reveals distinct subregions, shaped by the inhomogeneous geographic features of the NAM area, with distinct extreme precipitation character and drivers. Next, defining EPEs as days when subregion‐mean precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of rainy days, five synoptic features and one mesoscale feature are investigated as potential drivers of EPEs. Essentially all EPEs can be associated with at least one selected driver, with only one event remaining unclassified. This analysis shows the dominant role of Gulf of California moisture surges, mesoscale convective systems and frontal systems in generating NAM extreme precipitation. Finally, a frequency and probability analysis is conducted to contrast precipitation distributions conditioned on the associated meteorological drivers. The findings demonstrate that the co‐occurrence of multiple features does not necessarily enhance the EPE probability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay

Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The cosmic muon and detector simulation framework of the extreme energy events (EEE) experiment

Abstract This paper describes the simulation framework of the extreme energy events (EEE) experiment. EEE is a network of cosmic muon trackers, each made of three multi-gap resistive plate chambers (MRPC), able to precisely measure the absolute muon crossing time and the muon integrated angular flux at the ground level. The response of a single MRPC and the combination of three chambers have been implemented in a GEANT4-based framework (GEMC) to study the telescope response. The detector geometry, as well as details about the surrounding materials and the location of the telescopes have been included in the simulations in order to realistically reproduce the experimental set-up of each telescope. A model based on the latest parametrization of the cosmic muon flux has been used to generate single muon events. After validating the framework by comparing simulations to selected EEE telescope data, it has been used to determine detector parameters not accessible by analysing experimental data only, such as detection efficiency, angular and spatial resolution.

Abbrescia, M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Meta-Level Framework for Evaluating Resilience in Net-Zero Carbon Power Systems with Extreme Weather Events in the United States

Important changes are underway in the U.S. power industry in the way that electricity is sourced, transported, and utilized. Disruption from extreme weather events and cybersecurity events is bringing new scrutiny to power-system resilience. Recognizing the complex social and technical aspects that are involved, this article provides a meta-level framework for coherently evaluating and making decisions about power-system resilience. It does so by examining net-zero carbon strategies with quantitative, qualitative, and integrative dimensions across discrete location-specific systems and timescales. The generalizable framework is designed with a flexibility and logic that allows for refinement to accompany stakeholder review processes and highly localized decision-making. To highlight the framework’s applicability across multiple timescales, processes, and types of knowledge, power system outages are reviewed for extreme weather events, including 2021 and 2011 winter storms that impacted Texas, the 2017 Hurricane Maria that affected Puerto Rico, and a heatwave/wildfire event in California in August 2020. By design, the meta-level framework enables utility decision-makers, regulators, insurers, and communities to analyze and track levels of resilience safeguards for a given system. Future directions to advance an integrated science of resilience in net-zero power systems and the use of this framework are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. In order to accurately predict AR events in numerical weather prediction, subseasonal and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale meteorological influence on extreme AR events.Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared to typical ARs on the coast of WashingtonState. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events.In particular, a negatively tilted low pressure system is positioned to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside an upper level jet streak. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest. The Madden JulianOscillation (MJO) is shown to be particularly important in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR ont he Washington coast.

Collow, Allison↗
DOE OSTI2023

Postdisaster Routing of Movable Energy Resources for Enhanced Distribution System Resilience: A Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Approach

The deployment of movable energy resources (MERs) can be an effective strategy to restore critical loads to enhance power system resilience when no other energy sources are available after the occurrence of an extreme event. Since the optimal locations of MERs following an extreme event are dependent on system operating states (e.g., the loads at each node, on/off status of system branches, and so on), existing analytical and population-based approaches must repeat the entire analysis and calculation when the system operating states change. On the contrary, if deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based algorithms are sufficiently trained with a wide range of scenarios, they can quickly find optimal or near-optimal locations irrespective of changes in system states. A deep Q-learning-based approach is proposed for optimal MER deployment to enhance power system resilience. MERs can be also utilized to complement other types of resources, if available. The proposed approach operates in two stages after the occurrence of extreme events. In the first stage, the distribution network is represented as a graph, and the network is then reconfigured using tie switches by using Kruskal’s spanning forest search algorithm (KSFSA). To maximize critical load recovery, the optimal or near-optimal locations of MERs are chosen in the second stage. Further, case studies on a 33-node distribution system and a modified IEEE 123-node system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for postdisaster routing of MERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Estuaries are vulnerable to climate change and are particularly sensitive to extreme river discharge (RD) and sea-level rise (SLR). To understand the effects of extreme RD and SLR on estuaries, an integrated modeling approach is adopted to simulate hydrodynamic changes in the Yangtze River Estuary. Model results showed that SLR will intensify the estuarine hydrodynamics in water level, currents, and salinity. Water level, current speed, and salinity increased linearly with the magnitude of SLR. The hydrological model suggested a lower RD in the future. This will increase the saltwater intrusion, which will be more severe during the lower RD and drought extreme hydrological event (EHE) conditions. Model results also suggested that the saltwater intrusion is more sensitive to RD than SLR. In addition, the interplay between the RD and SLR will exacerbate the impacts of coastal oceans on estuarine hydrodynamics, especially during extremely low RD conditions. Moreover, the decrease of RD and deepening of the channel due to human activities will also amplify the effects of SLR on the Estuary, increasing the risk of coastal disasters.

3-D hydrodynamic model, extreme climate, draught, ↗
NASA NTRS2024

Satellite-Based Tracking of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management During the 2018 Extreme Weather Event in Kerala, India

Uncoordinated management of hydropower dams during extreme and unexpected precipitation events in mountainous terrain can have disastrous consequences due to the competing nature of flood control and hydropower generation. Numerous cases of flooding events that have been exacerbated due to insufficient storage conditions in hydropower dams have been reported worldwide. There is a need for a scalable and publicly accessible monitoring framework that is capable of providing reliable, near-real time, and transparent reservoir operations data. A fully satellite-based framework is the most viable solution to build such capability. The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT 3.0), which utilizes high frequency remote sensing-based surface area and reservoir storage estimation alongside hydrological modelled inflow was applied here for the 2018 Kerala floods in India as a globally representative case for a mountainous river basin with high precipitation and hydropower dams. Application of satellite-based RAT 3.0 in monitoring the state of 19 reservoirs in Kerala during the flood event showed very promising results. In general, RAT 3.0, using satellite remote sensing, was found to be able to capture the temporal trend of the reservoir storage and pinpoint the sudden shift in filling or release decisions made by the dam operator. Inflow modelling in such regions was found to require careful calibration with identification of reservoirs that are heavily regulated being a critical aspect. The perennial high cloud cover in such regions necessitate and highlights the central role played by microwave and radar-based satellite sensors, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, in tracking reservoir state. An operational version of RAT 3.0 for stakeholder agencies tailored for hydropower dams operating in high precipitation and mountainous environments is a real-world outcome of this study.

Sarath Suresh↗
DOE OSTI2026

Incorporating Local Extreme Weather Events into Reliability Assessments

Presentation discussing modeling extreme weather effects on the Bulk power system. Using a Production cost model to analyze weather related demand increases, generator outages, transmission outages, and fuel supply constraints. These results can be analyzed to inform on system reliability effects of extreme weather. This presentation was developed for the 2026 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Forum at EPRI in Charlotte NC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Multi-sensor Evaluation of Precipitation Uncertainty for Landslide-triggering Storm Events

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select among a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity-duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of reported landslides across the continental US and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296mm with an average range of 51mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8262745mm/hr and as much as 57mm/hr. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit-ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually-verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.

Precipitation inter-comparison↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential for Solar Farms to Protect Crops Against Extreme Weather Events

With climate change posing serious risks to crop production, solar PV has the potential to protect agriculture against extreme climate events. This concept has significant implications for agrivoltaics, but large gaps exist in the physical understanding of the climate resiliency that solar PV can bring to agriculture, and current studies focus on one-off designs ideal to protect against specific climate events. This study investigates key climate events that threaten agriculture throughout the year, including winter, spring, and summer climate threats.

Williams, Henry J↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗