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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

The abcd Reliability Growth Model

This paper presents a modification of the well-known Duane-Crow reliability growth model. In the abcd reliability growth model, the initial period of exponential decline of the failure rate in the Duane-Crow model may be followed by a period of constant failure rate. Data often show that an exponential decline in failures is followed by a constant failure rate. If a growth model including only the initial period of exponential decline is applied to increasingly longer failure rate data sets, the data will include longer periods of constant failure rate, and the estimated reliability growth rate will decline from an initially high value down toward zero. Using the Duane-Crow model without extending it to include a possible period of constant failure rate may create the mistaken impression that the initial reliability growth continues forever, but at an ever decreasing rate.

Reliability growth↗
NASA NTRS1975

Magnetospheric chorus - Amplitude and growth rate

A new study of the amplitude of magnetospheric chorus with 1966-1967 data from the Stanford University/Stanford Research Institute VLF receivers on Ogo 1 and Ogo 3 has confirmed the band-limited character of magnetospheric chorus in general and the double-banding of near-equatorial chorus. Chorus amplitude tended to be inversely correlated with frequency, implying lower intensities at lower L values. Individual chorus emissions often showed a characteristic amplitude variation, with rise times of 10 to 300 ms, a short duration at peak amplitude, and decay times of 100 to 3000 msec. Growth was often approximately exponential, with rates from 200 to nearly 2000 dB/sec. Rate of change of frequency was found in many cases to be independent of emission amplitude, in agreement with the cyclotron feedback theory of chorus (Helliwell, 1967, 1970).

Burtis, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Reliability Growth

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗
NASA NTRS2010

Solar Cycle and Anthropogenic Forcing of Surface-Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland

A comparison of 10-yr moving average (yma) values of Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface-air temperatures with selected solar cycle indices (sunspot number (SSN) and the Aa geomagnetic index (Aa)), sea-surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region, and Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) atmospheric concentration measurements reveals a strong correlation (r = 0.686) between the Armagh temperatures and Aa, especially, prior to about 1980 (r = 0.762 over the interval of 1873-1980). For the more recent interval 1963-2003, the strongest correlation (r = 0.877) is between Armagh temperatures and MLCO2 measurements. A bivariate fit using both Aa and Mauna Loa values results in a very strong fit (r = 0.948) for the interval 1963-2003, and a trivariate fit using Aa, SSN, and Mauna Loa values results in a slightly stronger fit (r = 0.952). Atmospheric CO2 concentration now appears to be the stronger driver of Armagh surface-air temperatures. An increase of 2 C above the long-term mean (9.2 C) at Armagh seems inevitable unless unabated increases in anthropogenic atmospheric gases can be curtailed. The present growth in 10-yma Armagh temperatures is about 0.05 C per yr since 1982. The present growth in MLCO2 is about 0.002 ppmv, based on an exponential fit using 10-yma values, although the growth appears to be steepening, thus, increasing the likelihood of deleterious effects attributed to global warming.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Quantitative observations of hydrogen-induced, slow crack growth in a low alloy steel

Hydrogen-induced slow crack growth, da/dt, was studied in AISI-SAE 4130 low alloy steel in gaseous hydrogen and distilled water environments as a function of applied stress intensity, K, at various temperatures, hydrogen pressures, and alloy strength levels. At low values of K, da/dt was found to exhibit a strong exponential K dependence (Stage 1 growth) in both hydrogen and water. At intermediate values of K, da/dt exhibited a small but finite K dependence (Stage 2), with the Stage 2 slope being greater in hydrogen than in water. In hydrogen, at a constant K, (da/dt) sub 2 varied inversely with alloy strength level and varied essentially in the same complex manner with temperature and hydrogen pressure as noted previously. The results of this study provide support for most of the qualitative predictions of the lattice decohesion theory as recently modified by Oriani. The lack of quantitative agreement between data and theory and the inability of theory to explain the observed pressure dependence of slow crack growth are mentioned and possible rationalizations to account for these differences are presented.

Nelson, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Developing disturbances in shear

The origin and growth to moderate amplitude of disturbances in shear flow has been traditionally ascribed to the linear modal instability of the flow. Recent work on initial value problems has suggested that nonmodal growth of perturbations may be of equal and perhaps greater importance, at least in cases of rapid development. Examples of robust growth in model problems which support no instabilities and in baroclinic flows with realistic Ekman damping for which the exponential modes have zero or negative growth rates have been shown. Such examples have focused attention on the perturbations which are configured to tap the energy of mean flows. Here a critical examination of these favorably configured perturbations is given, making use of the simple constant free shear barotropic model which allows construction of exact two-dimensional isolated wave packet solutions.

Farrell, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2015

Insulation Resistance Degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Insulation resistance (IR) degradation in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors has been characterized by the measurement of both time to failure (TTF) and direct current leakage current as a function of stress time under highly accelerated life test conditions. The measured leakage current time dependence data fit well to an exponential form, and a characteristic growth time tau (sub SD) can be determined. A greater value of tau (sub SD) represents a slower IR degradation process. Oxygen vacancy migration and localization at the grain boundary region results in the reduction of the Schottky barrier height and has been found to be the main reason for IR degradation in NiBaTiO3 capacitors. The reduction of barrier height as a function oftime follows an exponential relation of phi (t ) = phi (0) e (exp -2Kt), where 13 the degradation rate constant K Koe (Ek/kT) is inversely proportional to the mean TTF (MTTF) and can be determined using an Arrhenius plot. For oxygen vacancy electromigration, a lower barrier height phi (0) will favor a slow IR degradation process, but a lower phi (0) will also promote electronic carrier conduction across the barrier and decrease the IR. As a result, a moderate barrier height phi (0) (and therefore a moderate IR value) with a longer MTTF (smaller degradation rate constant K) will result in a minimized IR degradation process and the most improved reliability in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors.

reliability↗
NASA NTRS2015

Insulation Resistance Degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Insulation resistance (IR) degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors has been characterized by the measurement of both time to failure and direct-current (DC) leakage current as a function of stress time under highly accelerated life test conditions. The measured leakage current-time dependence data fit well to an exponential form, and a characteristic growth time SD can be determined. A greater value of tau(sub SD) represents a slower IR degradation process. Oxygen vacancy migration and localization at the grain boundary region results in the reduction of the Schottky barrier height and has been found to be the main reason for IR degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 capacitors. The reduction of barrier height as a function of time follows an exponential relation of phi (𝑡)=phi (0)e(exp -2Κt), where the degradation rate constant 𝐾=𝐾o𝑒(𝐸𝑘/𝑘𝑇) is inversely proportional to the mean time to failure (MTTF) and can be determined using an Arrhenius plot. For oxygen vacancy electromigration, a lower barrier height phi(0) will favor a slow IR degradation process, but a lower phi(0) will also promote electronic carrier conduction across the barrier and decrease the insulation resistance. As a result, a moderate barrier height phi(0) (and therefore a moderate IR value) with a longer MTTF (smaller degradation rate constant 𝐾) will result in a minimized IR degradation process and the most improved reliability in Ni-BaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors.

dielectric degradation↗
NASA NTRS1976

Studies on color-center formation in glass utilizing measurements made during 1 to 3 MeV electron irradiation

The coloring of NBS 710 glass was studied using a facility for making optical absorption measurements during and after electron irradiation. The induced absorption contains three Gaussian shaped bands. The color center growth curves contain two saturating exponential and one linear components. After irradiation the coloring decays can be described by three decreasing exponentials. At room temperature both the coloring curve plateau and coloring rate increases with increasing dose rate. Coloring measurements made at fixed dose rate but at increasing temperature indicate: (1) The coloring curve plateau decreases with increasing temperature and coloring is barely measurable near 400 C. (2) The plateau is reached more rapidly as the temperature increases. (3) The decay occurring after irradiation cannot be described by Arrhenius kinetics. At each temperature the coloring can be explained by simple kinetics. The temperature dependence of the decay can be explained if it is assumed that the thermal untrapping is controlled by a distribution of activation energies.

Swyler, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Experimental study of the influence of wind on Benjamin-Feir sideband instability

A laboratory investigation of the influence of wind on the evolution of mechanically generated regular (m.g.r.) waves is reported. Surface elevation measurements were made at four fetches for steep (0.1 less than ak(bar) less than 0.2, 2 Hz) m.g.r. waves, moderate (15 less than u(asterisk) less than 25 cm/s, 3-6 Hz) wind waves, and combinations of the m.g.r. and wind waves. The m.g.r. wave spectra exhibit Benjamin-Feir sidebands that grow exponentially with fetch and whose growth rate increases as the initial wave steepness increases. As fetch increases for the wind cases, total energy increases and the frequency of the spectral maximum downshifts, but no spectral lines representing Benjamin-Feir sidebands were detected even though the wave steepness and fetch were similar to the m.g.r. waves whose spectra displayed sidebands. As wind speed increased over the m.g.r. waves, sideband magnitude, sideband growth rate, and low-frequency perturbation components associated with the instability mechanism were reduced.

Bliven, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Advanced Method to Estimate Fuel Slosh Simulation Parameters

The nutation (wobble) of a spinning spacecraft in the presence of energy dissipation is a well-known problem in dynamics and is of particular concern for space missions. The nutation of a spacecraft spinning about its minor axis typically grows exponentially and the rate of growth is characterized by the Nutation Time Constant (NTC). For launch vehicles using spin-stabilized upper stages, fuel slosh in the spacecraft propellant tanks is usually the primary source of energy dissipation. For analytical prediction of the NTC this fuel slosh is commonly modeled using simple mechanical analogies such as pendulums or rigid rotors coupled to the spacecraft. Identifying model parameter values which adequately represent the sloshing dynamics is the most important step in obtaining an accurate NTC estimate. Analytic determination of the slosh model parameters has met with mixed success and is made even more difficult by the introduction of propellant management devices and elastomeric diaphragms. By subjecting full-sized fuel tanks with actual flight fuel loads to motion similar to that experienced in flight and measuring the forces experienced by the tanks these parameters can be determined experimentally. Currently, the identification of the model parameters is a laborious trial-and-error process in which the equations of motion for the mechanical analog are hand-derived, evaluated, and their results are compared with the experimental results. The proposed research is an effort to automate the process of identifying the parameters of the slosh model using a MATLAB/SimMechanics-based computer simulation of the experimental setup. Different parameter estimation and optimization approaches are evaluated and compared in order to arrive at a reliable and effective parameter identification process. To evaluate each parameter identification approach, a simple one-degree-of-freedom pendulum experiment is constructed and motion is induced using an electric motor. By applying the estimation approach to a simple, accurately modeled system, its effectiveness and accuracy can be evaluated. The same experimental setup can then be used with fluid-filled tanks to further evaluate the effectiveness of the process. Ultimately, the proven process can be applied to the full-sized spinning experimental setup to quickly and accurately determine the slosh model parameters for a particular spacecraft mission. Automating the parameter identification process will save time, allow more changes to be made to proposed designs, and lower the cost in the initial design stages.

Schlee, Keith↗
NASA NTRS2014

Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Importance of Ice Size Distribution Assumptions

Large-eddy simulations of mixed-phase Arctic clouds by 11 different models are analyzed with the goal of improving understanding and model representation of processes controlling the evolution of these clouds. In a case based on observations from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), it is found that ice number concentration, Ni, exerts significant influence on the cloud structure. Increasing Ni leads to a substantial reduction in liquid water path (LWP), in agreement with earlier studies. In contrast to previous intercomparison studies, all models here use the same ice particle properties (i.e., mass-size, mass-fall speed, and mass-capacitance relationships) and a common radiation parameterization. The constrained setup exposes the importance of ice particle size distributions (PSDs) in influencing cloud evolution. A clear separation in LWP and IWP predicted by models with bin and bulk microphysical treatments is documented and attributed primarily to the assumed shape of ice PSD used in bulk schemes. Compared to the bin schemes that explicitly predict the PSD, schemes assuming exponential ice PSD underestimate ice growth by vapor deposition and overestimate mass-weighted fall speed leading to an underprediction of IWP by a factor of two in the considered case. Sensitivity tests indicate LWP and IWP are much closer to the bin model simulations when a modified shape factor which is similar to that predicted by bin model simulation is used in bulk scheme. These results demonstrate the importance of representation of ice PSD in determining the partitioning of liquid and ice and the longevity of mixed-phase clouds.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS1990

Bioconvective patterns, synchrony, and survival

With and without bioconvective pattern formation, a theoretical model predicts growth in light-limited cultures of motile algae. At the critical density for pattern formation, the resulting doubly exponential population curves show an inflection. Such growth corresponds quantitatively to experiments in mechanically unstirred cultures. This attaches survival value to synchronized pattern formation.

Noever, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Dynamics of Bridgman-Stockbarger growth of non-dilute binary alloys

The coupling between heat and mass transfer in the Bridgman-Stockbarger growth of nondilute crystals induces growth rate transients that are longer than those caused by heat transfer alone. The dynamics of the diffusion-controlled growth for thermophysical properties representative of Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Te and Hg(1-x)Cd(x)Te are computed from a one-dimensional solidification model which includes melt-crystal phase behavior. Results show that the growth rate response to a step change in pull rate for both systems differs from the exponential decay observed for dilute alloys and that growth rates cannot be inferred from axial segregation data in nondilute systems due to the dependence of the segregation coefficient on composition.

Bourret, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Real-time rapid leakage estimation for deep space habitats using exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search

The recent accelerated growth in space-related research and development activities makes the near-term need for long-term extraterrestrial habitats evident. Such habitats must operate under continuous disruptive conditions arising from extreme environments like meteoroid impacts, extreme temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, and seismic events. Loss of air or atmospheric leakage from a habitat poses safety challenges that demand proper attention. Such leakage may arise from micro-meteoroid impacts, crack growth, bolt/rivet loosening, and seal deterioration. In this paper, leakage estimation in deep space habitats is posed as an inverse problem. A forward pressure-based dynamical model is formulated for atmospheric leakage. Experiments are performed on a small-scaled pressure chamber where different leakage scenarios are emulated and corresponding pressure values are measured. An exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search (EWARS) algorithm is developed and validated for the inverse problem of real-time leakage estimation. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology can achieve real-time estimation and tracking of constant and variable leaks with accuracy.

Deep space habitats↗
NASA NTRS1980

Dependence of growth rate of quartz in fused silica on pressure and impurity content

The effects of pressure, temperature, and some variations in impurity content on the growth rate u of quartz into fused silica were measured. Under all conditions the growth rate was interface controlled and increased exponentially with pressure with an activation volume averaging -21.2 cu cm/mole. The activation enthalpy for all specimens is extrapolated to a zero pressure value of 64 kcal/mole, within the experimental uncertainty. At a given stoichiometry the effect of hydroxyl content on growth rate is described entirely by a linear term C(OH) in the prefactor of the equation for the growth rate. The effect of chlorine impurity can be described similarly. Also u is increased as the ideal stoichiometry is approached from the partially reduced state.

Fratello, V. J.↗